Box Office Numbers (& Competition)

Please check your estimates for opening 4 days & domestic gross. (votes are public)

  • 1st 4 days < 20 million

  • 1st 4 days 20-30 million

  • 1st 4 days 30-40 million

  • 1st 4 days 40-50 million

  • 1st 4 days 50-60 million

  • 1st 4 days 60+ Million

  • Total Domestic Gross < 50 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 50-60 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 60-70 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 70-80 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 80-90 million

  • Total Domestic Gorss 90-100 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 100-110 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 110-120 million

  • Total Domestic Gross 120+ Million


Results are only viewable after voting.
I saw it last night at 5 pm because al lthe other later shows were sold out. and the theater was about 90 percent filled. From there reactions they really enjoyed the film.

I thought it was a good movie that kept my entertained. I'm glad its doing so well right now.
 
I went to the Friday Noonish show, and there were a ton of kids there as school had been canceled in lieu of the weather. I don't believe the weather was a deterring factor.

Conversations I overheard as I was leaving the theatre were pretty positive with regard to film reaction.
 
The drop off will be 60-65% because there's no Holiday monday next week so it'll seem bigger than it really is. Of course the haters wil scream about how it's falling like a rock when in fact it's normal for these type of films after Holiday. It might still be #1 next week.
A sizable drop is to be expected, and a drop in the mid-50s would actually be okay, but if the drop is as high as 65% then that would be a big drop, even by the standards of this genre following a holiday weekend. The effect a holiday has on the second weekend drop isn't as pronounced as you claim, and that's especially true for President's Day Weekend where the Monday isn't all that huge.

By the way, Box Office Mojo has updated their estimates into the following breakdown:

Fri - $ 15.5 million
Sat - $ 17.4 million
Sun - $ 11.6 million
 
65% is NOT huge because next Sunday is NOT followed by a Holiday Monday. You have to take that into effect. 65% would be huge if it was a non-holiday weekend vs a non-holiday weekend. This isn't the case here. You'd have to compare Ghost Riders opening Fri,Sat, & Monday to next weeks Fri, Sat, Sun to get a bit more accurate of the drop. The same thing happened to X3 as it opened on a Holiday weekend but you if you take that out you're in the 50-55% range which is inline for these front loaded pics.
 
I guess it will hardly get to $115m in total, because of bad legs (GR=X3).
 
GR had a 12% increase from Fri to Sat. X3 didn't have that. GR also doesn't have any similar competition until 300 on March 9th. I think GR will do just fine. Zodiak is the only big film between now and 300 and that's surely not as attractive to the kids out there. Ghost Rider is getting lots of repeat business.
 
Variety article on Ghost Rider's success:

<H1>'Ghost Rider' sets box office ablaze
Comic adaptation takes in $44.5 million

By IAN MOHR




NEW YORK – Sony's Marvel comic adaptation "Ghost Rider" revved an estimated $44.5 million over the first three days of the extended President's Day frame, easily taking No. 1 at the domestic B.O. and becoming the biggest opening of the year so far.

Studio was estimating Sunday morning that the pic could roll to $51 million over four days, which would make it the biggest President's
Day opening ever, surpassing Adam Sandler comedy "50 First Dates," (which hit $45.1 million over four days in 2004).
The PG-13 "Ghost Rider" played 3,619 locations as the frame's widest new release. Pic stars Nicolas Cage as supernatural cyclist Johnny Blaze, and numbers could conceivably spell a new franchise for the studio, though Sony brass wouldn't comment on that possibility.
"Ghost" led a busy weekend with five new wide rollouts entering the fray.
Disney's big-screen kid lit adaptation, meantime, "Bridge to Terabithia," landed in second place over the three day frame, flying
to $22 million off 3,319. Pic scored a plump per engagement average of $7,032 as the frame's second widest new rollout.

In other new bows, Warner Bros.' romantic comedy "Music & Lyrics"
wrote up $14 million, off 2,929. Pic opened on Valentine's Day to try
and corral the date crowd: Cume stands at $19.5 million since its
V-Day bow.

Lionsgate bowed Tyler Perry's latest "Daddy's Little Girls" to $12.1
million off 2,111. Pic played over three days to $5,732 per location.
Pic could advance in the charts depending on its Monday biz tomorrow.

Family comedy also bowed on Valentine's Day and now has a cume of
$17.8 million.

Universal's spy thriller "Breach," meantime, sneaked into sixth on the
charts, drawing up an estimated $10.4 million over three days. Pic
bowed in 1,489 theaters after its recent unveiling at the Berlin film
festival.

Any new releases, however, besides "Ghost" and "Terbithia," couldn't
catch DreamWorks' Eddie Murphy-starrer "Norbit": Pic held well,
managing to drop to the No. 3 spot in its second outing.

Pic took in another $16.8 million over the first three days of
President's Day weekend to raise its cume to $58.8 million.

Among recent openings in the specialty game, Sony Classics' Oscar
contender "The Lives of Others," in its second frame, took in $366,128
off 32 screens for a healthy per screen average of $11,442.

After a strong couple of weeks in a handful of markets, MGM and the
Weinstein Co.'s "Factory Girl" expanded by 318, but wasn't able to
keep up the socko per screen averages from its initial, more limited
run. Sienna Miller starrer took in $506,000 for a per location average
of $1,508. Cume stands at just under $899,000.

Four-day estimates for the President's Day frame will be released come
Monday morning, but "Ghost"'s solid run as No. 1 for the weekend isn't
in doubt. Sony brass said that the pic's success came because it played well across broad geographic demos, skewing slightly male.
</H1>
 
65% is NOT huge because next Sunday is NOT followed by a Holiday Monday. You have to take that into effect. 65% would be huge if it was a non-holiday weekend vs a non-holiday weekend. This isn't the case here. You'd have to compare Ghost Riders opening Fri,Sat, & Monday to next weeks Fri, Sat, Sun to get a bit more accurate of the drop. The same thing happened to X3 as it opened on a Holiday weekend but you if you take that out you're in the 50-55% range which is inline for these front loaded pics.
No, 65% would still be huge. The stats on second weekend drops for holiday weekend releases just don't back you up on this. In fact they directly contradict your position.
 
BOM has the 3-day estimate at $ 44.5 million. The 4-day weekend will likely be either just under or just over $ 50 million. If this estimate holds then I think we're probably looking at $ 110-115 million domestic.

Which is almost EXACTLY what I predicted. It'll top out at $107 million domestic. Word of mouth will not be kind.
 
Please post the stats of other big budget action films like comic book films that played on a Holiday weekend and then show me the drop off. These are the type of films that are heavily front loaded to begin with unlike romantic comedies, etc...
 
I like Carrey but his non comedies blow at the box offic.e

Are you really sure saying this?

Eternal Sunshine of Spotless Mind
Production Budget: $20 million
Domestic: $34,400,301
Foreign: $37,642,574
Worldwide: 72,042,875
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=eternalsunshine.htm

The Truman Show
Domestic: $125,618,201
Foreign: $138,500,000
Worldwide: $264,118,201
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=trumanshow.htm

Yeah, The Majestic was really miss, but it didn't even get right marketing.
 
Published: Sunday, February 18, 2007 Article tools

LOS ANGELES (AP) - Satan's bounty hunter has looted the wallets of movie-goers.
"Ghost Rider," Sony's comic-book adaptation starring Nicolas Cage as a motorcycle stunt driver moonlighting as a collector of evil souls for the devil, debuted as the top weekend movie with $44.5 million, according to studio estimates Sunday.

Debuting in second place with $22.1 million was Disney's "Bridge to Terabithia," based on the children's novel about a boy and girl who create an elaborate fantasy land to escape from the troubles of the real world.

The movies bumped off the previous weekend's No. 1 flick, DreamWorks' Eddie Murphy comedy "Norbit," which slipped to third place with $16.8 million, lifting its total to $58.9 million.

Premiering at No. 4 with $14 million was the Warner Bros. romance "Music and Lyrics," starring Hugh Grant as a washed-up pop singer and Drew Barrymore as his unlikely songwriting partner.

The Lionsgate romance "Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls" opened in fifth place with $12.1 million, a sharp drop from filmmaker Perry's February releases the last two years, 2006's "Madea's Family Reunion," which premiered with $30 million, and 2005's "Diary of a Mad Black Woman," which debuted with $21.9 million.

Universal's spy thriller "Breach" debuted at No. 6 with $10.4 million. It stars Chris Cooper as Robert Hanssen, the FBI man caught in 2001 for selling secrets to Russia, and Ryan Phillippe as a young bureau operative who helps bring him down.

Though trashed by critics, "Ghost Rider" helped pull Hollywood out of its box-office doldrums, with overall revenues rising for the first time in six weekends. The top 12 movies took in $141.4 million, up 28 per cent from the same weekend last year.

"This is the weekend that could turn the tide and get us going in the right direction," said Paul Dergarabedian, president of box-office tracker Media By Numbers.

Based on the Marvel Comic books, "Ghost Rider" delivered Hollywood's biggest opening so far this year, topping the $34.2 million debut for "Norbit." "Ghost Rider" was the best opening weekend ever for Cage, beating the $35.1 million debut of "National Treasure."

"Ghost Rider" also extended Hollywood's winning streak with comic-book adaptations, a genre some critics have said would eventually play itself out.

Coming this summer are two big comic-book sequels, Sony's "Spider-Man 3" and 20th Century-Fox's "Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer."

Following are estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theatres, according to Media By Numbers LLC. Final figures will be released Monday.

1. "Ghost Rider," $44.5 million.

2. "Bridge to Terabithia," $22.1 million.

3. "Norbit," $16.8 million.

4. "Music and Lyrics," $14 million.

5. "Tyler Perry's Daddy's Little Girls," $12.1 million.
 
GR had a 12% increase from Fri to Sat. X3 didn't have that. GR also doesn't have any similar competition until 300 on March 9th. I think GR will do just fine. Zodiak is the only big film between now and 300 and that's surely not as attractive to the kids out there. Ghost Rider is getting lots of repeat business.

Actually it's ZODIAC, not ZODIAK.

And I was expecting from GR to break some records, which were predicted as your forecast.

I bet people will lost their interest to GR right after March begins, what means no enough money for the movie to make more than it's budget.
 
Please post the stats of other big budget action films like comic book films that played on a Holiday weekend and then show me the drop off. These are the type of films that are heavily front loaded to begin with unlike romantic comedies, etc...
Comic book films released on holiday weekends and their second weekend drops:

Men in Black - 41.13%
Spider-Man 2 - 48.75%
Men in Black II - 53.19%
Daredevil - 55.12%
Superman Returns - 58.47%
Constantine - 59.3%
X-Men 3 - 66.89%

Not based on comic books but in the action/sci-fi genre:

Mission Impossible - 52.4
War of the Worlds - 53.04%
Mission Impossible II - 53.3%
Terminator 3 - 55.78%

Less than 50% is great, mid-50s is reasonable, even high 50s is kinda-sorta okay, but more than 60% and certainly as high as 65% is a big drop. It puts a film into really lousy company on the list of biggest second weekend drops of all time.
 
The January-April timeframe is slowly phasing out its dumping ground moniker, as movies have been hitting excellent numbers in this time period for the past few years.
 
Weekend estimates are in thru Sunday. Update below vvvvvvvvvv I'll be here every day with the latest #'s.
 
Debuted at #1 Overseas!

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr...onal/news/e3i00c30daf8fb3b8f1413e08d9a83e55d5

'Ghost' rides to $15.5 mil overseas

By Frank Segers

Feb 19, 2007
2911.jpg
"Ghost Rider"

Sony Pictures Releasing International's "Ghost Rider" matched its domestic No. 1 opening this weekend with a first place debut overseas, grossing an estimated $15.5 million from 1,871 screens in 24 territories.

The Mark Steven Johnson film -- starring Nicolas Cage and based on a Marvel Comics character who sells his soul to the devil -- topped 21 of 24 debut markets reporting. The action-fantasy's combined domestic-international opening weekend gross comes to an impressive $60 million.

"Ghost Rider" is not the only potent new entry to emerge in the international market this weekend. Universal International bowed in the U.K. and Ireland "Hot Fuzz" a cop-thriller spoof co-produced by Studio Canal and Britain's Working Title Films, and garnered a combined $11.6 million (including previews) from 422 screens (for a mighty per-screen average of $27,488).

The U.K.-Ireland gross alone qualifies "Hot Fuzz" as the No. 3 title overseas this weekend.

Universal International calls the opening of the comedy -- about a London cop who gets transferred to a small town and paired with a clueless partner - "stunning." It's the biggest opening weekend of 2007 so far in the all-important U.K. market, and the distributor's fifth biggest opening weekend ever in the U.K. after "Bridget Jones 2" ($20 million), the remake of "King Kong" ($13.5 million), "Love Actually" ($12.9 million) and "Hannibal" ($12.4 million).
Advertisement
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Universal also introduced overseas this weekend "The Good Shepherd" fresh from a Silver Bear award from the just-concluded Berlin Film Festival citing "outstanding artistic contribution" for the film's ensemble cast headed by Matt Damon and Angelina Jolie. The spy drama directed by Robert DeNiro (who also co-stars) garnered an estimated $1.8 million from 396 screens in Germany, Austria, Australia and New Zealand.

Another international newcomer is Paramount Pictures International/Dreamworks' "Norbit," which bowed domestically last weekend. The Eddie Murphy comedy grabbed an estimated $527,000 from 100 screens in Malaysia, Taiwan and Singapore. Worldwide cume stands at nearly $60 million.

"Ghost Rider" rode to the top spot on the basis of powerful bows in Russia (an estimated $3.4 million from 400 screens, 18th biggest opening weekend ever in the market), Spain ($3 million from 415 sites), Mexico ($2 million from 400 situations) and Australia ($1.9 million from 208 screens).

On a per-screen average basis, Asian territories and "the Middle East group" were especially generous to "Ghost Rider."

In Taiwan, the average was $12,500 per screen from 120 locations. In Malaysia, the PSA was $12,666 from 60 sites. In Singapore, the average came to $18,125 from 40 situations. In the Philippines, the PSA came to $13,200 from 50 spots. In the "Middle East group" -- nine markets including the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, Kuwait, Jordan and Egypt -- the per screen average logged in at $15,745 from 47 situations.

Placing second overall this weekend is 20th Century Fox's "Night at the Museum," the No. 1 title overseas for six of the last seven weekends. This weekend's estimate is $13.8 million from about 5,000 screens in 46 markets, raising "Museum's" international gross total to $250 million.

The Ben Stiller comedy opened strongly in Hong Kong, an estimated $1.6 million from 46 screens, for a muscular per-screen average of $34,783. Including previews, that tally is the all-time second biggest for distributor Fox in the Hong Kong market.

"Museum" also opened in China ($1 million from 600 situations), Belgium ($900,000 from 85 sites, for a $10,588 per screen average) and placed No. 1 in Holland ($544,000 from 100 locales). Biggest of the holdover markets was France, where in its second weekend "Museum" captured an estimated $3.5 million from 676 screens, placing third after French-language "Taxi 4" and Olivier Dahan's "La Vie En Rose," a film biography of chanteuse Edith Piaf.

Placing fourth this weekend is Warner Bros. International's "Blood Diamond," starring Oscar-nominated Leonardo Di Caprio, which grossed an estimated $8.6 million from about 3,500 screens in 59 markets. International total to date stands at $78.1 million.

In fifth spot is Sony's "Pursuit of Happyness," which pulled an estimated $7.7 million from 2,900 screens in 50 territories. Just last Saturday, the Will Smith vehicle passed the $100-million gross mark overseas. Cume now stands at $104 million.

WBI's "Music & Lyrics" raised its overseas cume to $14.2 million this weekend thanks to an estimated $6.8 million gross from about 1,000 screens in eight markets. The Hugh Grant-Drew Barrymore comedy, which opened domestically this weekend in the No. 4 slot, had strong bows in Australia, Taiwan, Greece and New Zealand. Worldwide gross total stands at $33.7 million.

Fox's "Rocky Balboa" pulled an estimated $4.9 million on the weekend from 2,300 screens in 29 markets handled by Fox (excluding Scandinavia, which is handled by other distributors. Total overseas cume (including Scandinavian markets) is $65 million. PPI/Paramount's "Charlotte's Web" lifted its overseas cume to $44 million thanks to an estimated $6 million this weekend from 2,075 sites in 45 markets.

Other Oscar-related titles: Dreamworks/PPI's "Dreamgirls," grossing an estimated $3.7 million from 1,331 screen in 26 territories including Japan where the musical bowed No. 1 in the market with an estimated $1.7 million from 288 spots for an overall international total to date of $19.2 million; and Fox Searchlight/DNA's "Notes on a Scandal," $2.4 million from 450 screens in 10 markets for an overseas cume of $9 million.

Also, Summit Ent./PPI-Vantage's "Babel," which grossed an estimated $1.3 million from 660 screen in 14 markets, for a PPI cume of $34.6 million; and Fox's "The Last King of Scotland," an estimated $1.8 million from 600 sites in 36 territories, for a cume of $12.8 million.

Fox's satirical comedy, "Epic Movie," scored an estimated $2.5 million from 700 locations in a dozen markets (for a cume of $14.1 million) while Universal's "The Holiday" continued to chug along, grabbing $2 million from 950 screens in 35 territories, raising its international total to $124.3 million.

Other overseas cume updates: Universal's "Smokin' Aces," $11.8 million; Fox's "Eragon," $167.2 million; Lionsgate's "Saw III," $74.7 million; Fox's "Little Miss Sunshine," $34.5 million; and Lionsgate's "Employee of the Month," $7 million.

(Grosses for films from Disney/Buena Vista Int'l. were not available by presstime. Also, Warner Bros. International did not provide updates for "Letters From Iwo Jima" and "Flags of Our Fathers.")
 
http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/02/exclusive_4day_.html

EXCLUSIVE 4-DAY ESTIMATES: &#8216;Ghost Rider&#8217; Blazes to $51 million w/$14g PTA; 'Terabithia' 2nd at $28.5 million!
by Steve Mason

February 18, 2007

President&#8217;s Day Weekend belongs to Nicolas Cage and Ghost Rider (Sony). The Mark Steven Johnson-directed comic book adaptation was not shown to critics prior to its release, but this is the sort of flick that is critic-proof. Cage, who had been on a cold streak that included The Wicker Man ($23 million), The Weather Man ($12 million), Lord of War ($24 million), Matchstick Men ($36 million) and Windtalkers ($40 million) has his biggest hit since 2004&#8217;s National Treasure ($173 million). After a powerful $15.5 million Friday, Ghost Rider never looked back, and it will win the 4-day weekend with an estimated $51 million. The comic book adaptation also wins the PTA week with just over $14,000 per location.

As I predicted on Thursday, Ghost Rider has become the all-time 4-day President&#8217;s Day Weekend champ topping 2004&#8217;s 50 First Dates (Sony) at $45.1 million and Mark Steven Johnson&#8217;s 2003 comic book adaptation Daredevil (Fox) which delivered $45.0 million. This also bodes well for Cage&#8217;s next project. On April 27, Paramount will release Next, a sci fi thriller from director Lee Tamahori (Die Another Day, XXX: Stae of the Union).
Disney and Walden Media previously teamed up on The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe (Buena Vista), which generated $291 million after its Christmas 2005 release, and they appear to have scored again with Bridge to Terabithia. Based on the Newbery Award-winning children&#8217;s novel by Katherine Paterson, this movie had not been scoring well in industry tracking prior to release, but it managed a $28.5 million 4-day opener with a per location of $9,079, good for 4th on the PTA scoreboard. Terabithia is also the all-time family film champ for the long President&#8217;s Day weekend besting 8 Below ($24.9 million).
The Eddie Murphy holdover Norbit from Paramount suffered a steep decline in week 2. Its $4.4 million Friday was over 50% less than last Friday, but the fat suit/gender-bending comedy will still pick up $20.6 million during this 4-day frame bringing its cume to nearly $62.6 million. My projection models show that it should finish with a total domestic gross in the mid-$90&#8217;s, and, with a little luck, it has a chance to be the first 2007 release to exceed $100 million.
The Drew Barrymore/Hugh Grant romantic comedy Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros), which opened on Wednesday, has delivered a 4-day take of $17 million and a 6-day haul of $22.5 million. After out-grossing Music & Lyrics on Wednesday, Tyler Perry&#8217;s Daddy&#8217;s Little Girls (Lionsgate) came back to earth. Perry&#8217;s hardcore fans rushed out to see the movie Wednesday, and the family drama then softened dramatically. Daddy&#8217;s Little Girls scored $13.5 million over the holiday weekend bringing the 6-day total for Perry&#8217;s 3rd feature film to approximately $19.1 million.
As expected, the laggard amongst new releases is Universal&#8217;s real-life spy thriller Breach. Despite a cast including Oscar winner Chris Cooper, Oscar nominee Laura Linney and Ryan Phillippe, the Billy Ray-directed film managed only a $2.9 million opening day and a mere $10 million for the 4-day weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $51 million [$51 million cume]
2. Bridge to Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $28.5 million [$28.5 million cume]
3. Norbit (Paramount) &#8211; $20.6 million [$62.6 million cume]
4. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $17 million [$22.5 million cume]
5. Tyler Perry&#8217;s Daddy&#8217;s Little Girls (Lionsgate) - $13.5 million [$19.1 million cume]
6. Breach (Universal) - $10 million [$10 million cume]
7. Hannibal Rising (MGM/Weinstein) - $6.2 million [$22.8 million cume]
8. Because I Said So (Universal) - $5.2 million [$33.4 million cume]
9. Night at the Museum (Fox) - $4.8 million [$238.4 million cume]
10. The Messengers (Sony) - $4.2 million [$30.9 million]
On the 4-Day PTA scoreboard, Ghost Rider rides to the win followed by French Canadian film Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance) at $13,950 per and the French film Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) is next at $12,306. Bridge to Terabithia and The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) round out the Top 5.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ghost Rider (Sony) &#8211; 3,619 locations - $14,092 PTA
2. Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance) &#8211; 38 locations - $13,950 PTA
3. Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) &#8211; 2 locations - $12,306 PTA
4. Bridge to Terabithia (Buena Vista) &#8211; 3,139 locations - $9,079 PTA
5. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) &#8211; 30 locations - $9,250 PTA
6. Bamako (New Yorker Films) &#8211; 1 location - $8,960 PTA
7. Breach (Universal) &#8211; 1,489 locations - $6,715 PTA
8. Norbit (Paramount) &#8211; 3,138 locations - $6,564 PTA
9. Eklavya: The Royal Guard (Eros) &#8211; 80 locations &#8211; $6,345
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) &#8211; 2,955 locations - $5,752 PTA
 
Early 4 day totals updated. Ghost Rider estimate 51 million for 4 days!

http://news.fantasymoguls.com/originalcontent/2007/02/exclusive_4day_.html

by Steve Mason

February 18, 2007

President’s Day Weekend belongs to Nicolas Cage and Ghost Rider (Sony). The Mark Steven Johnson-directed comic book adaptation was not shown to critics prior to its release, but this is the sort of flick that is critic-proof. Cage, who had been on a cold streak that included The Wicker Man ($23 million), The Weather Man ($12 million), Lord of War ($24 million), Matchstick Men ($36 million) and Windtalkers ($40 million) has his biggest hit since 2004’s National Treasure ($173 million). After a powerful $15.5 million Friday, Ghost Rider never looked back, and it will win the 4-day weekend with an estimated $51 million. The comic book adaptation also wins the PTA week with just over $14,000 per location.
As I predicted on Thursday, Ghost Rider has become the all-time 4-day President’s Day Weekend champ topping 2004’s 50 First Dates (Sony) at $45.1 million and Mark Steven Johnson’s 2003 comic book adaptation Daredevil (Fox) which delivered $45.0 million. This also bodes well for Cage’s next project. On April 27, Paramount will release Next, a sci fi thriller from director Lee Tamahori (Die Another Day, XXX: Stae of the Union).
Disney and Walden Media previously teamed up on The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion the Witch & the Wardrobe (Buena Vista), which generated $291 million after its Christmas 2005 release, and they appear to have scored again with Bridge to Terabithia. Based on the Newbery Award-winning children’s novel by Katherine Paterson, this movie had not been scoring well in industry tracking prior to release, but it managed a $28.5 million 4-day opener with a per location of $9,079, good for 4th on the PTA scoreboard. Terabithia is also the all-time family film champ for the long President’s Day weekend besting 8 Below ($24.9 million).
The Eddie Murphy holdover Norbit from Paramount suffered a steep decline in week 2. Its $4.4 million Friday was over 50% less than last Friday, but the fat suit/gender-bending comedy will still pick up $20.6 million during this 4-day frame bringing its cume to nearly $62.6 million. My projection models show that it should finish with a total domestic gross in the mid-$90’s, and, with a little luck, it has a chance to be the first 2007 release to exceed $100 million.
The Drew Barrymore/Hugh Grant romantic comedy Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros), which opened on Wednesday, has delivered a 4-day take of $17 million and a 6-day haul of $22.5 million. After out-grossing Music & Lyrics on Wednesday, Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls (Lionsgate) came back to earth. Perry’s hardcore fans rushed out to see the movie Wednesday, and the family drama then softened dramatically. Daddy’s Little Girls scored $13.5 million over the holiday weekend bringing the 6-day total for Perry’s 3rd feature film to approximately $19.1 million.
As expected, the laggard amongst new releases is Universal’s real-life spy thriller Breach. Despite a cast including Oscar winner Chris Cooper, Oscar nominee Laura Linney and Ryan Phillippe, the Billy Ray-directed film managed only a $2.9 million opening day and a mere $10 million for the 4-day weekend.

EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ghost Rider (Sony) - $51 million [$51 million cume]
2. Bridge to Terabithia (Buena Vista) - $28.5 million [$28.5 million cume]
3. Norbit (Paramount) – $20.6 million [$62.6 million cume]
4. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) - $17 million [$22.5 million cume]
5. Tyler Perry’s Daddy’s Little Girls (Lionsgate) - $13.5 million [$19.1 million cume]
6. Breach (Universal) - $10 million [$10 million cume]
7. Hannibal Rising (MGM/Weinstein) - $6.2 million [$22.8 million cume]
8. Because I Said So (Universal) - $5.2 million [$33.4 million cume]
9. Night at the Museum (Fox) - $4.8 million [$238.4 million cume]
10. The Messengers (Sony) - $4.2 million [$30.9 million]
On the 4-Day PTA scoreboard, Ghost Rider rides to the win followed by French Canadian film Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance) at $13,950 per and the French film Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) is next at $12,306. Bridge to Terabithia and The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) round out the Top 5.
EXCLUSIVE FANTASYMOGULS.COM EARLY 4-DAY ESTIMATES
1. Ghost Rider (Sony) – 3,619 locations - $14,092 PTA
2. Ma Fille, Mon Ange (Alliance) – 38 locations - $13,950 PTA
3. Avenue Montaigne (Thinkfilm) – 2 locations - $12,306 PTA
4. Bridge to Terabithia (Buena Vista) – 3,139 locations - $9,079 PTA
5. The Lives of Others (Sony Classics) – 30 locations - $9,250 PTA
6. Bamako (New Yorker Films) – 1 location - $8,960 PTA
7. Breach (Universal) – 1,489 locations - $6,715 PTA
8. Norbit (Paramount) – 3,138 locations - $6,564 PTA
9. Eklavya: The Royal Guard (Eros) – 80 locations – $6,345
10. Music & Lyrics (Warner Bros) – 2,955 locations - $5,752 PTA
 
By the way 1st overseas totals in as GR is #1 overseas in it's 18 territory debut:
Thanks for that link, although the story says that GR debuted in 24 territories. For those who want the main info here in the thread: GR made an estimated $ 15.5 million in 24 foreign territories and was # 1 in 21 of those 24.
 
The drop off will be 60-65% because there's no Holiday monday next week so it'll seem bigger than it really is. Of course the haters wil scream about how it's falling like a rock when in fact it's normal for these type of films after Holiday.


Oh, you can count on THAT.
 
Which is almost EXACTLY what I predicted. It'll top out at $107 million domestic. Word of mouth will not be kind.

Really? And why is that? I've seen the movie twice now, both times with a packed house of people that hardly seemed like comic fans, and judging by their responses and reactions, they loved it.
 
Excerpt from Variety on Overseas #'s. Should be #1 next weekend too easily:

'Ghost' scares up overseas business
Comic adaptation edges out 'Museum'
By DAVE MCNARY"Ghost Rider" galloped to the top spot at the weekend international box office with $15.5 million from 1,871 prints in two dozen markets, edging sturdy comedy "Night at the Museum."
The weekend also saw a spectacular U.K. launch for cop spoof "Hot Fuzz" with $11.6 million at 422 in what was the fourth biggest opening ever for a Brit pic on its home turf.

Sony saw "Ghost Rider" finish first in 21 territories, led by the Russian market with $3.4 million at 401 in the nation's 18th largest launch, in Spain with $3 million at 415, in Australia with $1.9 million at 208 and in Taiwan with $1.5 million at 120. The Nicolas Cage vehicle also opened impressively in Malaysia with $760,000 at 60 and in Singapore with $725,000 at 40.

With its boffo U.S. debut, "Ghost Rider" has already grossed $60 million worldwide. It will launch next weekend in France, Germany and Scandinavia and move into the U.K. and Japan in the following frame.
 
I saw GR at my local Regal Cinema. It was a sold-out 7:30pm showing. During the movie a kid behind me kept remarking about how cool this or that was. He was very excited. The audience clapped at the end and buzz was very good. Word of mouth should help push GR solidlythrough the next few weekends. Should approach the 200M mark.
 

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