BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[Prison Mike]

I think L&T will make more in the long run than DS2. It will be more fun for the general audience compared to DS2 (and I really liked this movie).

 

[InCali]

I think L&T will make more in the long run than DS2. It will be more fun for the general audience compared to DS2 (and I really liked this movie).

I think that's a completely reasonable conclusion. If so, it means yet another $1B Marvel movie.

 

[The Caped Knight]

 

[JKKS085]

So, I think the 185M DOM OW number being widely thrown out there is low and here's why.....

As we sit here now, the movie has grossed about 148M with a Saturday take of 58M. The drop off you see on Sundays is generally in the 20-25% range maybe a little higher (Sonic) or maybe lower (NWH). If you figure 25% drop off from Saturday, the number would be 43.5M for Sunday. That would put it at just over 191M. 20% would put it at about 195M. In order for it to hit the 185M number, the Sunday drop would have to be in the range of 37% and I just don't see that happening. It's possible, but seems unlikely.

Yep my feelings exactly. That’s a super conservative estimate and I wouldn’t be surprised if actuals come closer or even above 190M.

 

[JKKS085]

That’s just insane and goes to show how much of a power house Marvel Studios remains.
I remember negative comments about their 2021 slate, completely ignoring the context in which those films were released, basically using bo numbers to theorize that their movies would not be drawing as much interest post-Endgame as they did in the past. That’s as bad a take as it gets and NWH and now MoM proves that.

 

[InCali]

Yep my feelings exactly. That’s a super conservative estimate and I wouldn’t be surprised if actuals come closer or even above 190M.

Sounds like a studio estimate. LOL.

EDIT: Yep. Called that one....went back to Deadline and they already changed their estimate. Disney is doing what all the studios do. No surprise and no offense. In addition to the Disney OW of 185M. They also called the 57.5M Saturday. We all know that game.

SUNDAY AM UPDATE after late Saturday PM: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is coming in with a Disney-reported $57.5M Saturday, which is 36% off from the pic’s opening day of $90M. Many believe that the sequel’s opening is between $194M-$197M, according to industry estimates. But Disney is calling stateside at $185M as of this morning, or as Entelligence reports, that translates to 13.5M admissions.

 

[HammerDown]

Wonder how L&T will do compared for these numbers.

It has been at the very top of many of the “most anticipated movies” lists of 2022, so i think it will do very well. The very subdued teaser they released broke records and they are still hiding a ton of great stuff and surprises.

An MCU movie featuring their second most popular character, plus the Guardians, plus Jane Foster’s redemption story, Christian Bale as the villain…

Also it’s more of a fun summer blockbuster movie coming out in a month where there’s not a lot of competition plus the following month, August, is barren of movies so that will surely help it’s legs.

Numbers-wise it’s hard to say but overall fairly similar I would guess. There are a few factors that could push it one or the other way though.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Is Thor their second most popular character? I don't think statistics bear that out. Unless you are talking about 2nd most popular remaining character now that Iron Man and Cap are more or less on ice right now

 

[InCali]

Is Thor their second most popular character? I don't think statistics bear that out. Unless you are talking about 2nd most popular remaining character now that Iron Man and Cap are more or less on ice right now

I thought that's what was meant and would say they are more on ice than less. I would actually put Thor on par with DS and think their popularity with the GA could seesaw movie to movie. We're kinda fickle like that. Spider-Man is clearly the top draw, but I "sort" of don't include him even though he's technically in the MCU.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Multiverse of Madness would easily have passed Captain Marvel for #4 largest worldwide OW had they gotten every territory Captain Marvel did. They probably easily lost $110-120M from those countries.

 

[InCali]

I don't think it's anything close to a stretch to say there's a very good chance that MoM passes CM for the #4 slot when all the beans are counted.

EDIT: And AoU for #6

 

[AvengerPA]

Scarlet Witch has been a character in six films: Winter Soldier, Age of Ultron, Civil War, Infinity War, Endgame, and Multiverse of Madness. The last four have all made a billion dollars globally, and the current one will be the fifth. Scarlet Witch should get her own movie. Elizabeth Olsen's acting certainly merits it.

 

[WatchProtect]

I'd watch the hell out of a Scarlet Witch movie. I think the issue would sort of be that a lot of people still don't see her as a villain after this film, I've seen a lot trying to justify her actions which isn't bad really (people tried to justify Thanos, but people still knew he was a villain at the end of the day.)

The obvious route would be a redemption story but people don't seem to think she needs redeemed. I don't think the character is tarnished and enjoyed her heel turn but she did some merciless stuff in this film.

 

[InCali]

I'd watch a SW movie for sure, but it would be a tricky movie to make. She has a lot of obvious flaws that aren't of the general superhero type. It could make for an interesting, different kind of movie, but I think it would be very easy for it to go sideways.

 

[Prison Mike]

I didn’t realize that the $185M number was the studio estimate (and not what the trades are seeing). In that case, I hope the actuals come in above $190M. Originally I thought it would make $200M domestic OW but that seems a bit of a reach right now.

I think in the end, this movie will make 1B+. Thor L&T will make more overall but both will be in the billion dollar club.

 

[mclay18]

Yawn!! Here we go again people prematurely predicting the end of Marvel yet the facts are not indicative of any of that dribble, might be more wishful thinking for some. Even Eternals was one of only 9 movies the entire year last year to gross over 400 million. Not a success by Marvel standard but being the 9th highest grossing movie of the year makes it a success comparatively speaking for 2021!

The fact that the O.W. is front loaded and may not hit $200M domestic once final numbers come in tomorrow says a lot -- especially since $95M of that came from Thursday previews/Friday.

It's still a win for Disney, Marvel and especially Sam Raimi -- a $1B haul is almost certain. But some viewers were rather "meh" on the movie and the mixed word of mouth will hurt the film.

 

[Iceman]

That’s just insane and goes to show how much of a power house Marvel Studios remains.
I remember negative comments about their 2021 slate, completely ignoring the context in which those films were released, basically using bo numbers to theorize that their movies would not be drawing as much interest post-Endgame as they did in the past. That’s as bad a take as it gets and NWH and now MoM proves that.

NWH and MoM absolutely blast those takes out of the water. NWH also came out while there were still some pandemic reservations in place. Probably the same sources of CBM fatigue we’ve been hearing since the first Avengers lol. People are so tired of CBMs that they’re taking rest in cinema seats during MCU film openings.

 

[Iceman]

Sounds like a studio estimate. LOL.

EDIT: Yep. Called that one....went back to Deadline and they already changed their estimate. Disney is doing what all the studios do. No surprise and no offense. In addition to the Disney OW of 185M. They also called the 57.5M Saturday. We all know that game.

SUNDAY AM UPDATE after late Saturday PM: Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is coming in with a Disney-reported $57.5M Saturday, which is 36% off from the pic’s opening day of $90M. Many believe that the sequel’s opening is between $194M-$197M, according to industry estimates. But Disney is calling stateside at $185M as of this morning, or as Entelligence reports, that translates to 13.5M admissions.

Oh nice, so actuals could be a fair bit higher.

 

[Iceman]

It has been at the very top of many of the “most anticipated movies” lists of 2022, so i think it will do very well. The very subdued teaser they released broke records and they are still hiding a ton of great stuff and surprises.

An MCU movie featuring their second most popular character, plus the Guardians, plus Jane Foster’s redemption story, Christian Bale as the villain…

Also it’s more of a fun summer blockbuster movie coming out in a month where there’s not a lot of competition plus the following month, August, is barren of movies so that will surely help it’s legs.

Numbers-wise it’s hard to say but overall fairly similar I would guess. There are a few factors that could push it one or the other way though.

True. The second trailer could boost things a fair bit. How Gorr looks and comes across could play a factor and the GA might not know that Bale is involved yet.

 

[Spider-Fan]

The fact that the O.W. is front loaded and may not hit $200M domestic once final numbers come in tomorrow says a lot -- especially since $95M of that came from Thursday previews/Friday.

It's still a win for Disney, Marvel and especially Sam Raimi -- a $1B haul is almost certain. But some viewers were rather "meh" on the movie and the mixed word of mouth will hurt the film.

I dont think it will be hurt much at all. It will either come close to or pass a billion more than likely, which is a great success for the film no matter how anyone looks at it. I don't think the hypothetical "it could have made more" matters once we are talking billion dollar club

 

[TheVileOne]

The fact that the O.W. is front loaded and may not hit $200M domestic once final numbers come in tomorrow says a lot -- especially since $95M of that came from Thursday previews/Friday.

It's still a win for Disney, Marvel and especially Sam Raimi -- a $1B haul is almost certain. But some viewers were rather "meh" on the movie and the mixed word of mouth will hurt the film.

When you make this kind of money opening weekend, nothing is really going to hurt you. Everything is pretty much gravy at this point, and $1 billion from a box office recovering from a debilitating global pandemic is nothing to scoff at and take lightly. How many movies have made a billion in a post-pandemic world other than No Way Home?

 

[TheVileOne]

I dont think it will be hurt much at all. It will either come close to or pass a billion more than likely, which is a great success for the film no matter how anyone looks at it. I don't think the hypothetical "it could have made more" matters once we are talking billion dollar club

It doesn't, not to mention the film is going to eclipse the box office of the original, which only made $232 million domestic and $677 million worldwide.

I'd watch the hell out of a Scarlet Witch movie. I think the issue would sort of be that a lot of people still don't see her as a villain after this film, I've seen a lot trying to justify her actions which isn't bad really (people tried to justify Thanos, but people still knew he was a villain at the end of the day.)

The obvious route would be a redemption story but people don't seem to think she needs redeemed. I don't think the character is tarnished and enjoyed her heel turn but she did some merciless stuff in this film.

The problem is turning her into a villain after WandaVision.

 

[TheVileOne]

That’s just insane and goes to show how much of a power house Marvel Studios remains.
I remember negative comments about their 2021 slate, completely ignoring the context in which those films were released, basically using bo numbers to theorize that their movies would not be drawing as much interest post-Endgame as they did in the past. That’s as bad a take as it gets and NWH and now MoM proves that.

If anything, Eternals still doing as well as it did shows how strong the MCU brand is because it in fact did not bomb.

Releasing Black Widow and Jungle Cruise day and date was idiotic. They shouldn't have done that and made dumb hasty decisions because of the pandemic.

 

[Prison Mike]

 

[InCali]

A little less than I thought is would bring in and a rather unusually large Sunday drop. This could be an indication that it is somewhat more frontloaded than a lot of other movies, but we'll know more next weekend. An over 60% drop would be a further indication of that.