BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[BobJM]

It’s a super rainy Friday and Saturday here in the Northeast. I know a few people that headed to the theaters this morning

 

[Iceman]

Deadline is reporting a 90 million Friday opening For Multiverse of Madness, which could lead to an estimated 190 million dollar weekend.

Nice, 90m would be big. 54m even without previews.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Didnt Joker get like a B cinemascore also? That didnt hurt its word of mouth at all l

It got a B+ so while not a hard and set trend, the score for DS2 is not the best either, especially with the mixed WOM I'm seeing both here and on social media.

 

[Spider-Fan]

76% RT score and B+ Cinemascore are not bad. Not amazing, but those are both decent.

 

[Frodo]

Those scores say to me the consensus outside of fandom may be " It's fine" "It's a Solid film", or " I liked it, but didn't love it".

Perhaps fandom is much more polarized( as usual) in terms of " Loving it" or being "Disappointed" by it.

 

[Iceman]

Those scores say to me the consensus outside of fandom may be " It's fine" "It's a Solid film", or " I liked it, but didn't love it".

Perhaps fandom is much more polarized( as usual) in terms of " Loving it" or being "Disappointed" by it.

I would say more polarised given the great visuals and risky narrative choices.

 

[Holy Slapper]

From what I've seen, B or anything above it, means the movie will do well at the box office.

 

[Iceman]

Doctor Strange In The Multiverse Of Madness Set For $400M+ Global Bow – Deadline

Looking at around $400m worldwide by the end of the weekend.

 

[Filmfreak]

I don't see how it might not cross the billion dollar mark.

 

[InCali]

This will certainly make money and profit but I'm not expecting it to reach Avengers or Spider-Man's level box office Shattering records. No Way it makes a Billion dollars

I don't think ANYONE is expecting SM or Avengers levels. As far as it not making 1B, it looks to be well north of 400M (420 or so) in the first weekend alone. I don't see how someone can say it has no shot to reach that level after an OW like that. I don't think RT comes much into play until you get consistently bad reviews (think Morbius and Fant4stic). Even Venom was pretty much critic proof. If people like a movie, word gets around and people listen to their friends a lot more than they do critics.

 

[HammerDown]

I don't see how it might not cross the billion dollar mark.

I guess it all depends on the drop off’s moving forward. Next weekend it’s probably going to have a pretty steep drop(60%+), not only because of it over performing now but because I think the average reception/word of mouth will probably catch up by then.

It should still score roughly 400M domestic and then the question is can it bring in around 600M overseas without China, Russia, the banned countries… Its probably going to be tight but achievable. Around 1B would be an incredible result no doubt.

 

[u41211]

With some of the backlash I'm seeing online from parents who are telling people not to take their young children I am interested in seeing the legs this has. Got some people calling it demonic and not a typical Marvel film and talking about their kids not being able to sleep because it scared them. LOL. I think the film will do great but is not gonna be the juggernaut that everyone was speculating before release

 

[OroroGambitFan]

I guess it all depends on the drop off’s moving forward. Next weekend it’s probably going to have a pretty steep drop(60%+), not only because of it over performing now but because I think the average reception/word of mouth will probably catch up by then.

It should still score roughly 400M domestic and then the question is can it bring in around 600M overseas without China, Russia, the banned countries… Its probably going to be tight but achievable. Around 1B would be an incredible result no doubt.

Nah I respectfully disagree, don’t think it’s gonna have any problems making it to 1 billion, and drop off won’t be too bad cuz nothing else is out and that’ll be the case for a few wks. The firs tough question this movie will face at the box office is how it’ll fair against competition but that’s not till a few wks. Not sure it’ll do much more over a a billion but Quote me— a billion is in the bag when it will be all said and done

 

[OroroGambitFan]

With some of the backlash I'm seeing online from parents who are telling people not to take their young children I am interested in seeing the legs this has. Got some people calling it demonic and not a typical Marvel film and talking about their kids not being able to sleep because it scared them. LOL. I think the film will do great but is not gonna be the juggernaut that everyone was speculating before release

That’ll only make kids wanna see this even more— and they will!!!

 

[u41211]

That’ll only make kids wanna see this even more— and they will!!!

Well not the young kids whose families would make a Marvel film a family night out.

 

[AvengerPA]

Jatinder

@meJat32

$91M+ opening day for #DoctorStrange in USA/CAN. That will be enough for opening $190M in a worst-case scenario but realistically will target $197-203M ish. Reception seems like mixed to positive.

 

[legendkillin]

I hope it gets the 800-900 I don't think a billion is possible if some countries still have covid restrictions on movies and stuff I don't know.

Captain Marvel made a billion so it is very possible any MCU can now if all theaters are open around the world.

 

[Iceman]

Jatinder

@meJat32

$91M+ opening day for #DoctorStrange in USA/CAN. That will be enough for opening $190M in a worst-case scenario but realistically will target $197-203M ish. Reception seems like mixed to positive.

Shows how dominant the MCU is now when non-team up films without across-the-board positive reactions can still look at numbers like this. The MCU has 6 of the top 10 biggest opening weekends and this will also place in the top 10, pushing out Age of Ultron.

 

[Filmfreak]

Shows how dominant the MCU is now when non-team up films without across-the-board positive reactions can still look at numbers like this. The MCU has 6 of the top 10 biggest opening weekends and this will also place in the top 10, pushing out Age of Ultron.

To be fair, inserting the multiverse and Scarlet Witch, made it more of an event film and less of a traditional sequel to a solo entry. It barely touches what the first Doctor Strange movie laid the groundwork for, the same way No Way Home was approached. And Love and Thunder won't exactly be a Thor sequel either.

 

[InCali]

I hope it gets the 800-900 I don't think a billion is possible if some countries still have covid restrictions on movies and stuff I don't know.

Captain Marvel made a billion so it is very possible any MCU can now if all theaters are open around the world.

I used to teach quantitative analysis and here's my take on what I consider to be arbitrary numbers.....

Let's take 1B because it's a nice, round number (and a little bit north of my bank account balance). If we are talking simply about the amount of money a movie made, IB is "a" number we can use as a guideline, but if we are trying to discuss the success of a movie within the general population, we should compare like for like. I think people can see where I'm going here. Say, for example, China generally contributes 120M in WW BO money for big budget blockbusters. Say Russia generally contributes 80M. Now, let's say a movie (A) with both of those countries hits those numbers and grosses 1B. Now, say another movie (B) that can't be shown in those countries, grosses 950M. It's true that one movie (A) grossed more money, but was that movie more popular with the GA?

Basically, what I'm saying is that context matters when we consider box office "success".

BTW, I think MoM hits 1B WW.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Some people will likely make a big deal if doesn't make $1 billion but without noting it didn't open in China, Russia, and the Middle East. Those are some pretty decent-sized markets to lose in a still recovering theater market after all the COVID restrictions.

 

[mclay18]

I think after a massive opening weekend (it will hit $200M easily), it's going to have a hefty second weekend drop even without much competition. It doesn't have the NWH word of mouth and multiverse novelty, but neither is it in Eternals territory. Probably a final multiplier closer to Avengers: Age of Ultron.

It's not just the scarier aspects that will hurt it with conservative families, the movie is all over the place plot-wise and the cameos are becoming gimmicky. If Marvel Studios doesn't learn certain lessons, people are going to tune out and look for something fresher. Remember how Pixar used to be the gold standard for feature animation in North America? Marvel is going to hit that plateau with CBM releases and limited streaming series tie-ins.

 

[InCali]

I think after a massive opening weekend (it will hit $200M easily), it's going to have a hefty second weekend drop even without much competition. It doesn't have the NWH word of mouth and multiverse novelty, but neither is it in Eternals territory. Probably a final multiplier closer to Avengers: Age of Ultron.

It's not just the scarier aspects that will hurt it with conservative families, the movie is all over the place plot-wise and the cameos are becoming gimmicky. If Marvel Studios doesn't learn certain lessons, people are going to tune out and look for something fresher. Remember how Pixar used to be the gold standard for feature animation in North America? Marvel is going to hit that plateau with CBM releases and limited streaming series tie-ins.

I agree about the 2nd week drop. That was going to happen no matter what. AoU had a multiplier of about 2.5. I see MoM having one closer to CA:CW's of 2.25. That still looks like well over 400M.

 

[legendkillin]

It's not just the scarier aspects that will hurt it with conservative families, the movie is all over the place plot-wise and the cameos are becoming gimmicky. If Marvel Studios doesn't learn certain lessons, people are going to tune out and look for something fresher. Remember how Pixar used to be the gold standard for feature animation in North America? Marvel is going to hit that plateau with CBM releases and limited streaming series tie-ins.

Well the MCU had a 10+ year story end 3 years ago it is still pretty amazing that they produce some top money making movies. I would be lying though if I didn't say my interest dropped after the end of the Avengers Infinity story. They have to grab attention again which will be hard, Boseman passing also hurt my interest some because we all know that likely changed where the stories were going. Black Panther won't be recasted. After Thor's movie which I am not as excited about they have BP, Ant-Man 3, and GOTG 3 which I am highly interested in.

I preferred having 3 movies a year and no shows but as growth happens in a franchise they have to expand. If the shows are must watches for the movies that can make it a chore to watch. 3 of the 5 shows have been must watch for the movies. I think Ms. Marvel will be a must watch because she will likely meet her idol Danvers in the movies.
Wish I skipped Moon Knight since I didn't like it
She-Hulk I am on the fence about.
Skipping Groot show, Echo, and Agatha
I would skip Ironheart but it will likely impact Armor Wars which I will watch.
Secret Invasion I will watch.

 

[JKKS085]

Super impressive numbers so far which is great news for the theater experience in general and cbms in particular. I mean those are pre-pandemic mega event blockbuster numbers which would have been nearly impossible to fathom same time last year. Even if you discount NWH as a “perfect storm” type of thing, MoM’s performance along with the solid numbers pulled by The Batman proves that superhero fatigue still isn’t on the horizon and that cbms are leading the recovery.