BOX-OFFICE potential in the Multiverse of Madness

[HammerDown]

Weekend BO for DS:MOM and extra data for comparison.

Thursday Previews
Spider-Man: NWH - 50M
Doctor Strange: MOM - 36M
Avengers: AOU - 27.6M
———//———
Friday (* Thursday Previews Included)
Spider-Man: NWH - 121M
Doctor Strange: MOM - 90M
Avengers: AOU - 84M

Saturday
Spider-Man: NWH - 73M
Doctor Strange: MOM - 57M
Avengers: AOU - 56M

Sunday
Spider-Man: NWH - 64M
Avengers: AOU - 50M
Doctor Strange: MOM - 37M

Opening Weekend
Spider-Man: NWH - 260M
Avengers: AOU - 191M
Doctor Strange: MOM - 187M

 

[Tony Stark]

Another billion dollar film in the tank. I remember early on Marvel wanted Strange to be their "Iron Man" replacement, because Downey was getting older and his contract was up. When the first film came out, it did well, but it wasn't spectacular. However having Strange in the IW saga, and having him cameo in NWH, (even having Wong cameo in Shang Chi) really pushed this film to another level, and made Doctor Strange an A lister in the Marvel Universe.

 

[TheVileOne]

Another billion dollar film in the tank. I remember early on Marvel wanted Strange to be their "Iron Man" replacement, because Downey was getting older and his contract was up. When the first film came out, it did well, but it wasn't spectacular. However having Strange in the IW saga, and having him cameo in NWH, (even having Wong cameo in Shang Chi) really pushed this film to another level, and made Doctor Strange an A lister in the Marvel Universe.

The first movie actually made more than Iron Man and Iron Man 2 worldwide.

 

[Prison Mike]

Since his film debut, Doctor Strange has been in a Marvel movie every year (with the exception of 2020) so he’s been on the top of everyone’s minds which is a good thing IMO.

 

[Erzengel]

Since his film debut, Doctor Strange has been in a Marvel movie every year (with the exception of 2020) so he’s been on the top of everyone’s minds which is a good thing IMO.

I feel this is the unspoken success of Marvel. Having characters show up if not yearly, every other year invests them with the general audience. RDJ, Evans and Hemsworth from their debut films through Endgame. Now with Strange, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021 & 2022.

 

[JKKS085]

Reasonable scenario in mind based on the latest numbers I can see 405 dom + 605 os for a finish around 1.01B. Could go higher though.

 

[InCali]

Reasonable scenario in mind based on the latest numbers I can see 405 dom + 605 os for a finish around 1.01B. Could go higher though.

I could see that. In terms of success, 1B would be a no brainer with China and other countries. If it hits around 900M, I would personally consider it a 1B movie in terms of popularity.

 

[InCali]

The first movie actually made more than Iron Man and Iron Man 2 worldwide.

International box office has exploded over the last 10 or 12 years so I don't think this is a fair comparison.

 

[scarlet-witch]

Just based off how I feel about it, I can't see this getting as many repeat viewings as I would've hoped prior to seeing it. I'm not sure 1 billion is locked.

 

[TheVileOne]

International box office has exploded over the last 10 or 12 years so I don't think this is a fair comparison.

It exploded around the time MCU started if not earlier.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Disney was right to be pretty conservative about the Sunday performance as it looks like this film not being as family-friendly as past MCU hurt its performance on Mother's Day.

 

[InCali]

It exploded around the time MCU started if not earlier.

Well. I guess it depends on your definition of "exploded", but here's mine.

Both IM and IM2 grossed over 300M. IM in 2008 outgrossed the entire foreign market by over 50M. IM2 in 2010 outgrossed the entire foreign market, but it was basically a 50/50 split. In 2016, DS grossed about 230M with a foreign box office of almost double that.

Call "exploded" what you will, but if you don't see a dramatic uptick in Int'l BO in the last 10, 12, 14 years, I don't know what to tell you. The trend is clear and comparing WW totals from 2008 and 2010 to today is comparing apples and oranges.....or papayas or mangos or something like that. In other words, it's a silly thing to do.

 

[Iceman]

Hard Sunday fall so the Monday number will be interesting. Just as well the opening weekend was so big. Even with a terrible multiplier it's going to end on a big number.

 

[InCali]

Hard Sunday fall so the Monday number will be interesting. Just as well the opening weekend was so big. Even with a terrible multiplier it's going to end on a big number.

I suspect the multiplier will be 2.1+. I was always thinking Civil War comparisons; which was about 2.25. With the Sunday drop, it could be a bit lower than that.

 

[Iceman]

I suspect the multiplier will be 2.1+. I was always thinking Civil War comparisons; which was about 2.25. With the Sunday drop, it could be a bit lower than that.

Hopefully it gets to $400m dom even if the multiplier proves to be low.

 

[TheVileOne]

Well. I guess it depends on your definition of "exploded", but here's mine.

Both IM and IM2 grossed over 300M. IM in 2008 outgrossed the entire foreign market by over 50M. IM2 in 2010 outgrossed the entire foreign market, but it was basically a 50/50 split. In 2016, DS grossed about 230M with a foreign box office of almost double that.

Call "exploded" what you will, but if you don't see a dramatic uptick in Int'l BO in the last 10, 12, 14 years, I don't know what to tell you. The trend is clear and comparing WW totals from 2008 and 2010 to today is comparing apples and oranges.....or papayas or mangos or something like that. In other words, it's a silly thing to do.

The dramatic uptick in overseas box office started in the 00s. You can see it with the original Spider-Man trilogy, Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, Prequel Trilogy, Shrek, Transformers, and more, all of which preceded the start of the MCU.

It's really been happening for well over 20 years.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm predicting 900 million+ instead of a billion. For some reason I can't see it yet. Maybe if in another universe it croXed 200 million in North America during the opening weekend but nah.

 

[InCali]

The dramatic uptick in overseas box office started in the 00s. You can see it with the original Spider-Man trilogy, Pirates of the Caribbean trilogy, Prequel Trilogy, Shrek, Transformers, and more, all of which preceded the start of the MCU.

It's really been happening for well over 20 years.

Fine. You think those are valid comparisons and I think they aren’t

2008 IM 55% DOM 45% Intl
2010 IM2 50% DOM 50% Intl
2016 DS 34% DOM 66% Intl

 

[OroroGambitFan]

It’s tracking almost identically to Avengers Age of Ultron and as of Monday has pulled ahead!
The Sam Raimi directed Marvel movie had a robust Monday earning $13.3M which sends Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to $200.7M.

That amount of cash is arguably on par with what Avengers: Age of Ultron on its first Monday in 2015 –$13.2M– which put that MCU sequel at $204.4M through four days.

full article: Box Office: ‘Doctor Strange In the Multiverse Of Madness’ Hits $200M – Deadline

 

[OroroGambitFan]

It’s tracking almost identically to Avengers Age of Ultron and as of Monday has pulled ahead!
The Sam Raimi directed Marvel movie had a robust Monday earning $13.3M which sends Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to $200.7M.

That amount of cash is arguably on par with what Avengers: Age of Ultron on its first Monday in 2015 –$13.2M– which put that MCU sequel at $204.4M through four days.

full article: Box Office: ‘Doctor Strange In the Multiverse Of Madness’ Hits $200M – Deadline

200.7 > 204.4 ok so it didn’t pull ahead but it’s pretty much on par…

 

[OroroGambitFan]

The fact that the O.W. is front loaded and may not hit $200M domestic once final numbers come in tomorrow says a lot -- especially since $95M of that came from Thursday previews/Friday.

It's still a win for Disney, Marvel and especially Sam Raimi -- a $1B haul is almost certain. But some viewers were rather "meh" on the movie and the mixed word of mouth will hurt the film.

The great news is we won’t have to wait long to see who’s right! Sure it’s gonna have over a 55% decline but if it’s between 55-60% that’s great any drop with 70% or higher is falling off a cliff and indicative of bad word of mouth. I’m still holding firm that when it’s all said and done this will hit a billion despite people claims word of mouth will hurt it. Like I said, we won’t have to wait long to see who’s right….

 

[InCali]

The great news is we won’t have to wait long to see who’s right! Sure it’s gonna have over a 55% decline but if it’s between 55-60% that’s great any drop with 70% or higher is falling off a cliff and indicative of bad word of mouth. I’m still holding firm that when it’s all said and done this will hit a billion despite people claims word of mouth will hurt it. Like I said, we won’t have to wait long to see who’s right….

It’s possible but I don’t see it having age of Ultron‘s multiplier. I agree though that next weekend will give us a much better indication of whether the Sunday drop off, which was pretty large, is indicative of it being frontloaded. I don’t think anyone can really say until then. 55 to 60% would be a good drop. Anything too much over 60 would be an indication of frontloading.

 

[Holy Slapper]

Disney was right to be pretty conservative about the Sunday performance as it looks like this film not being as family-friendly as past MCU hurt its performance on Mother's Day.

This pretty much contradicts that. It made more than expected on Sunday:

 

[TheVileOne]

When a movie opens this well, it doesn't matter if it loses even 60 to 65 percent of box office next weekend.

 

[OroroGambitFan]

It’s possible but I don’t see it having age of Ultron‘s multiplier. I agree though that next weekend will give us a much better indication of whether the Sunday drop off, which was pretty large, is indicative of it being frontloaded. I don’t think anyone can really say until then. 55 to 60% would be a good drop. Anything too much over 60 would be an indication of frontloading.

Yeah but Sunday was Mother’s Day— I don’t see a ton of mothers being taken to see Dr Strange. It actually outgrossed AOU for its Monday tally, which is a pretty impressive feat! We can use AOU as the litmus test it’s a nice comparison so far!