Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]486009[/split]

 

[Docker2.0]

Didn't see a thread here for it so I figured I'd start one. If there is one already made Mods, feel free to delete or merge mine with it.

 

[regnak]

Ouch that hurts
I'm wondering how people are going to call the film if it turns out good.

If it was good Fox would want to have early press screenings so people could see positive reviews. However at this point in time the earliest press screening seems to be on August 5, 2 days before the movie.

 

[JKKS085]

It might turn out to be a good film, but it's still going to be called FFINO. FFINO is not dependent upon whether it's good or not, but whether it's in name only or not.

I'm pretty sure that even the film's current detractors will not keep using such a "negative" alias if the film turns out to be satisfying.
I am not well versed in the FF mythology and I think I've only seen one rather boring trailer for that film in theaters but I'm not sure that In Name Only is rightfully earned yet. So yes it just comes off as a way to undermine the movie by suggesting it's going to be bad because it doesn't retain some elements of the classic FF mythos. I'm pretty sure a good film would change that debatable perception. And that the "INO" stuff would be then mostly seen as "clever changes".

But I'm so going off topic I feel like banning myself.

 

[Vincanws]

Sounding like Ant-Man is holding onto number 1 again, which would be impressive seeing as most predictions I read only yesterday were pegging it as number 2 or 3.

 

[Dark Raven]

I'm pretty sure that even the film's current detractors will not keep using such a "negative" alias if the film turns out to be satisfying.
I am not well versed in the FF mythology and I think I've only seen one rather boring trailer for that film in theaters but I'm not sure that In Name Only is rightfully earned yet. So yes it just comes off as a way to undermine the movie by suggesting it's going to be bad because it doesn't retain some elements of the classic FF mythos. I'm pretty sure a good film would change that debatable perception. And that the "INO" stuff would be then mostly seen as "clever changes".

But I'm so going off topic I feel like banning myself.

You should really visit the Fantastic Four forum and you'll see in detail why many feel the "INO" is justified and not simply as a way to undermine the movie. It has been discussed at length for the past year or so.

As for Ant-Man, is Pixels slipping on Saturday? Does it have good WOM or not?

 

[JKKS085]

You should really visit the Fantastic Four forum and you'll see in detail why many feel the "INO" is justified and not simply as a way to undermine the movie. It has been discussed at length for the past year or so.

That is before all those people debating about it got to see the movie, right ?
Well I did take a look at the FF forums, looks like a minefield. I definitely don't have enough interest in the movie/franchise to engage in any conversation there. Seems like an extremely touchy subject and I usually don't fare well with self appointed guardians of the temple.

As for Ant-Man, is Pixels slipping on Saturday? Does it have good WOM or not?

It got a B grade on Cinemascore so that's not exactly good news along with the terrible reviews. Every bo outlet seems to agree that it should however fall in line with Sony's (lowballed) expectations, ie 25M or so, will probably end up slightly under if I had to make a guess.
Minions seems in for another steep drop, its final multiplier is definitely going to be some sort of front-loading record in the genre. I don't exactly have the time to make projections but its dailies are already falling behind those of Inside Out and I can see it ultimately making less domestically which is unexpected.

As for Ant-Man well, I think the only sure thing is that it's going to manage a slightly better second week end drop than both CATFA and TIH. Wether or not it will end up first is still up in the air but the good news is that a 150M dom finish is still very much in the cards.

 

[kedrell]

Well the average legs for the 6 MCU origin movies(which Ant-man is one of) is a 2.91X(the overall avg. of the 1st 11 movies is 2.726X). That multiplier would give Ant-Man a $166.5m DOM total and a $156m if it goes like the overall average instead . An even 3X would be at $171.6m. I'm still hoping it can have the legs to pass CA:TFA domestic which would take a 3.087X to do, which isn't unheard of. I'd like it to pass Thor1 as well but the higher we go the less likely it becomes(would take a 3.163X...also not unheard of but only IM1 and GotG have bested that in the MCU). Cap1 is the best pacer for this movie since they were both origin films released at the same time of year.

 

[GL's Light]

From BoxOffice.com:

ANT-MAN took in an estimated $24.77M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $106.08M.

ANT-MAN: $120.4M Overseas Total / $226.475M Global Total.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. May have beat Pixels, too. Deadline:

4TH UPDATE, Sunday 8:25 AM: Refresh for updates Disney Marvel’s Ant-Man showed Adam Sandler’s Pixels who had more superpowers at the box office weekend, raking in an estimated $24.77M ($24.66M per industry estimates) to the Sony title’s $23.7M (current industry estimate). The industry forecasted Pixels trickle to second on late Friday night: Ant-Man would reap the spoils of Saturday matinees, not Pixels. The Marvel film spiked 36% on Saturday with approximately $9.8M over its second $7.2M Friday, while Pixels slipped 8% from its $9.2M Friday with $8.45M. Ant-Man‘s -57% second weekend decline is better than Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger’s -60% second frame drop.

 

[seahammer]

From Deadline:
http://deadline.com/2015/07/pixels-paper-towns-southpaw-trainwreck-ant-man-box-office-1201484974/

‘Ant-Man’ Has Bragging Rights At The B.O. Over Adam Sandler’s ‘Pixels’ – Sunday AM Update

4TH UPDATE, Sunday 8:25 AM: Refresh for updates Disney Marvel’s Ant-Man showed Adam Sandler’s Pixels who had more superpowers at the box office weekend, raking in an estimated $24.77M ($24.66M per industry estimates) to the Sony title’s $23.7M (current industry estimate). The industry forecasted Pixels trickle to second on late Friday night: Ant-Man would reap the spoils of Saturday matinees, not Pixels. The Marvel film spiked 36% on Saturday with approximately $9.8M over its second $7.2M Friday, while Pixels slipped 8% from its $9.2M Friday with $8.45M. Ant-Man‘s -57% second weekend decline is better than Incredible Hulk and Captain America: The First Avenger’s -60% second frame drop.

EDIT: Looks like you guys beat me to it.

 

[GL's Light]

Pixels has a weekend estimate of $24 million, so Ant-Man ekes out the win if the actuals hold.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

EDIT: Looks like you guys beat me to it.

Sorry, I just have no life! t:

 

[GL's Light]

If Ant-Man roughly follows the drop-off pattern of Captain America: The First Avenger, which had strong holds from its third weekend on, for the rest of its run it'll end up with a domestic gross of about $160 million.

 

[samsnee]

The results have been a little disappointing for me. Looks like we probably we got a direct sequel any time soon but I'm sure the characters will pop up in other IPs to come.

 

[Vincanws]

What do people think this'll do in China?

 

[Mysteryman]

If the estimates hold and it actually exceeds the openings of TIH and CA:FA then I think we can put away this idea that Ant Man is a potential bomb for the studio .
Anybody got any international numbers?

 

[GL's Light]

Anybody got any international numbers?

I posted them above.

 

[Mysteryman]

Oops.
Sorry about that .
Good numbers

 

[Wildcard]

To be honest numbers are good for Ant-Man both domestically & internationally...not really disappointing at all or even close to "flop" territory, especially if the actuals hold & it has its second number one weekend on lock.

 

[Docker2.0]

The numbers are not bad at all, but am I the only one who thinks that releasing this film in the summer wasn't a good idea? This summer seems almost crowded and with him being a lesser known hero, why take that risk? I would have released this during the holidays or something like that.

 

[kedrell]

I don't know if that would have helped. Had Ant-Man already shown up in another film, ala' Falcon or Black Widow or Vision or whatever then THAT might have had a true impact and this could have done more like Thor2 numbers or something. But this is going in cold(relatively) and they don't have a Chris Pratt type to boost sales.

 

[GL's Light]

There's more competition in the holidays than in the late summer this year.

 

[Wildcard]

This movie wasn't ever going to do Thor 2 numbers.

I do agree it probably should've had another release date but it's doing fine as is...it's Marvel's cheapest movie & is still on track to earn $400+ worldwide.

 

[chamber-music]

Considering some folks had the knives out for this film it is doing pretty well. It still has overseas territories to open in.