Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[GL's Light]

So is it doing better than CA: TFA so far?

Better overseas, not quite as well domestic.

 

[Dark Raven]

Better overseas, not quite as well domestic.

But totalling the two so far, which has done better by the same stage?

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Ha! So happy to see this movie claim #1 again. Eat it, Sandler. When does this release in China?

 

[GL's Light]

But totalling the two so far, which has done better by the same stage?

International roll-out patterns differ for various films, so it's hard to make a like-for-like comparison for the worldwide gross on a week-to-week basis. But Ant-Man is headed for a higher worldwide gross than Captain America: The First Avenger.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ha! So happy to see this movie claim #1 again. Eat it, Sandler. When does this release in China?

Still no official date. There's an unofficial Sept. 18 floating around but most bets are on October.

 

[Dark Raven]

International roll-out patterns differ for various films, so it's hard to make a like-for-like comparison for the worldwide gross on a week-to-week basis. But Ant-Man is headed for a higher worldwide gross than Captain America: The First Avenger.

I hope it does better. And if CA: TFA got a sequel with lower numbers, then why shouldn't Ant-Man?

Still no official date. There's an unofficial Sept. 18 floating around but most bets are on October.

Sept/Oct seems really late for a release. You'd think it would be shortly after, like in August.

 

[GL's Light]

I hope it does better. And if CA: TFA got a sequel with lower numbers, then why shouldn't Ant-Man?

Marvel's in a different position now in terms of the number of properties they're juggling.

Sept/Oct seems really late for a release. You'd think it would be shortly after, like in August.

The Chinese authorities set all release dates there and they have their own agenda.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Sept/Oct seems really late for a release. You'd think it would be shortly after, like in August.

Would be nice but China does these blackout periods to ensure the domestic biz gets at least 50% market share. They are in one through mid-August right now so everything gets backed up. Movies have been announced through Sept. 13 so there's still a chance for that month at least.

 

[Dark Raven]

Marvel's in a different position now in terms of the number of properties they're juggling.


The Chinese authorities set all release dates there and they have their own agenda.

But if it has cult appeal and already more of an audience loyalty than the Inhumans, then they could push that one back to Phase 4, along with IW2. They need an Avengers movie in Phase 4 anyway, so IW2 could kick start that instead of being the culmination. That would leave room for Ant-Man 2 at the end of Phase 3.

Inhumans is the movie they can afford to push back. If they do so with Captain Marvel or Black Panther they'll receive lots of flack for that, but there should be no problem with Inhumans. We might even be a little bored of them by then with all the stuff so far in Agents of SHIELD, which admittedly hasn't felt that interesting.

 

[Mike Murdock]

Marvel's in a different position now in terms of the number of properties they're juggling.

But they also seem to have quite a few properties that are being phased out and won't appear in Phase 4.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

Thanks for the info, I hadn't heard any of that stuff about China. I've never followed these box office threads that much.

 

[GL's Light]

The chances of a sequel may depend on what kind of return the other new properties get.

 

[Mysteryman]

So, If one of one or more of the new properties doesn't do well, Ant Man 2 has a chance .

 

[GL's Light]

^^^
Or if most of the other new properties have about the same return as Ant-Man that would increase its chances of a sequel, but if most of them have higher returns then chances of a sequel diminish.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I'm almost sure we will get a sequel.

It will just be titled "Wasp."

 

[GL's Light]

Or maybe Giant-Man.

 

[Flint Marko]

I'm about 95% certain this was never going to get a sequel, unless it performed as well as Guardians did. At that point they know they'd be leaving money on the table.
I'm sure that somewhere down the line someone will call it a "failure" because it didn't warrant a sequel (someone did the same for Iron Man 3), but again, I don't think that was ever in the cards.

 

[Tymminator]

I think the sequel will be called "Ant-man & The Wasp".

 

[InCali]

Better overseas, not quite as well domestic.

"Captain America" was never going to sell as well overseas as it sold in, well, America. Get it? America?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The chances of a sequel may depend on what kind of return the other new properties get.

I doubt many will do worse than Ant-Man, unless Marvel completely drops the ball.

 

[InCali]

I doubt many will do worse than Ant-Man, unless Marvel completely drops the ball.

I am almost positive that box office numbers will not be the only factor. It will be considered, but I think Marvel is looking big picture here. If, for example, Paul Rudd can maintain or improve upon what he helped build in Ant-Man, it could be a prime candidate for a sequel even if it didn't have the initial box office appeal of some of the phase 3 standalones.

A strong appearance in Civil and/or Infinity Wars could be a big boost as it will build recognition and impressions. Also, how do individual storylines fit with the larger Marvel universe? I'm sure that'll be taken into consideration also.

Sure, box office numbers will be considered, but a strong box office is no guarantee of a standalone sequel.....unless it maybe goes Jurassic World/Avengers crazy.

 

[third3ye]

Looking more like a low- to mid-$400M WWBO, should surpass TFA but not Thor. That would put the film slightly under break-even, Disney's gonna have to rely on non-theatrical windows to get in the black.

 

[GL's Light]

Actual went up a bit:

ANT-MAN took in $24.91M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $106.22M.

 

[InCali]

Looking more like a low- to mid-$400M WWBO, should surpass TFA but not Thor. That would put the film slightly under break-even, Disney's gonna have to rely on non-theatrical windows to get in the black.

I'm not an expert, but from what I've been reading, that should be above break even.

Can you provide your calcs? I'm curious about that. Also, I think it will do better than that WW.

 

[Zarex]

Looking more like a low- to mid-$400M WWBO, should surpass TFA but not Thor. That would put the film slightly under break-even, Disney's gonna have to rely on non-theatrical windows to get in the black.

With a production budget of $130M and a promotional budget of approximately $5OM - Variety confirmed TV ad buys totaling $31M by opening weekend - the film shouldbe in the black at around $360M WW (using the 2X BO method of estimation).