Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

While we're on the subject, Terminator scored $27 million on opening day Sunday in China, the fourth biggest single day debut by any American film (trails T4, Ultron and F7).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think it's a cultural issue.

China doesn't want too much Western influence on their people.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Ant-Man is now ahead of FF in the dailies. That is hilarious!

 

[Lilbaz]

I think it's a cultural issue.

China doesn't want too much Western influence on their people.

It's probably more protectionism of their film industry to give them as much chance as possible to make money.

 

[InCali]

While we're on the subject, Terminator scored $27 million on opening day Sunday in China, the fourth biggest single day debut by any American film (trails T4, Ultron and F7).

He'll be back.....they love Arnie. California, not so much (anymore). t: If AntMan can hit big in China and Japan, the sky's the limit.....

 

[kedrell]

Ant-Man is now ahead of FF in the dailies. That is hilarious!

It passed it on FF's 15th day in release(Ant-Man's 36th day).

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Ant-Man is now ahead of FF in the dailies. That is hilarious!

Makes everyone look like fools for doubting Marvel's decision to go with an unknown like Ant-Man.

 

[Flint Marko]

Any chance of this touching $400 million?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Any chance of this touching $400 million?

It's a lock. Right now Ant-Man is just $39 million short of that mark and still has openings in South Korea, Japan and China to go.

 

[Wildcard]

Analysts believe that this has a chance of hitting $500 million and so do I.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I remember when someone told me that I should be happy that this movie was "failing". Good times

 

[InCali]

Analysts believe that this has a chance of hitting $500 million and so do I.

Yup. With another 10M DOM and maybe that much more from existing OS markets, China, Japan, and S. Korea, could push it over that mark if it does well there. I think it will play well. The 3D is quite good and it has something for just about everybody.

 

[kedrell]

The conventional wisdom is that you should pretty much be able to have 2X of whatever your last weekend was no matter how mediocre your movie is. Only truly despised films fail this test. AM just had a $4.1m weekend and given it's proven WOM status at this point, a 3X off this last weekend would seem the lowest it'll likely do and quite possibly more than that. So around a $12.5m which would give a final total DOM of $177m. To my mind, that's practically a lock at this point. I'd love for this to manage another $6-7m beyond that but that's more dicey.

 

[InCali]

The conventional wisdom is that you should pretty much be able to have 2X of whatever your last weekend was no matter how mediocre your movie is. Only truly despised films fail this test. AM just had a $4.1m weekend and given it's proven WOM status at this point, a 3X off this last weekend would seem the lowest it'll likely do and quite possibly more than that. So around a $12.5m which would give a final total DOM of $177m. To my mind, that's practically a lock at this point. I'd love for this to manage another $6-7m beyond that but that's more dicey.

Yes. It's had some really good, consistent holds. This one definitely was not a fantastic flop. The movies coming out over the next few weeks are so, well, forgettable, you could easily be right. I was playing it a little bit more conservatively at about 175+. The other thing is that even the new releases that might interest people aren't really competition for AM.

I think it's likely you'll start seeing AM pass movies like Hitman and Sinister 2 in the not so distant future. The latter genre in particular is notorious for steep week 2 drops if not well received. I don't know about next weekend, but the weekend after that seems like a real possibility.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. With another 10M DOM and maybe that much more from existing OS markets, China, Japan, and S. Korea, could push it over that mark if it does well there. I think it will play well. The 3D is quite good and it has something for just about everybody.

The one caveat I would throw in at this point is the exchange rate. Japan's isn't as favorable as it was a year or two ago and China just devalued its currency, which willl also cut into the conversion to dollars.

 

[InCali]

The one caveat I would throw in at this point is the exchange rate. Japan's isn't as favorable as it was a year or two ago and China just devalued its currency, which willl also cut into the conversion to dollars.

Well then, tell them to charge more.

It looks like it's dropped about 6% over the last year. So if the total were to be about 100M, it would instead be in the mid 90s. That's just guessing from looking at a graph.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Ant-Man is now ahead of FF in the dailies. That is hilarious!

"On your left..."

 

[kedrell]

I'm estimating it'll be at $173.5m after the Labor Day weekend, leaving only $3m or so left to catch TFA.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

"On your left..."

 

[JeetKuneDo]

"On your left..."

Perfect.

 

[TeeKay]

"On your left..."

 

[InCali]

"On your left..."

50M (FF) to 170M (AM)......I'd say that's about 3 laps and pulling away.

 

[Flint Marko]

"On your left..."

Points!
But really though, I love how much Ant-man is killing it. Marvels first flop my arse.

 

[InCali]

Points!
But really though, I love how much Ant-man is killing it. Marvels first flop my arse.

While Ant-Man hasn't made as much money as some other Marvel movies (though it's doing more than fine....thank you very much), I think it's a much better movie than some others that were "more successful" (box office wise). I think this will really help Marvel's credibility in the future. IMO, two of the movies with "lesser known" characters (GotG and AM) were way up there in terms of the quality of the movie.

 

[Guard82]

While Ant-Man hasn't made as much money as some other Marvel movies (though it's doing more than fine....thank you very much), I think it's a much better movie than some others that were "more successful" (box office wise). I think this will really help Marvel's credibility in the future. IMO, two of the movies with "lesser known" characters (GotG and AM) were way up there in terms of the quality of the movie.

Yes, the fact that Marvel has twice taken some lesser-known heroes -- the Guardians and Ant-Man -- and made them into such successful movies shows that they know what they're doing, they understand what makes these characters appealing, and they know how to introduce mass audiences to newer characters. The people at Marvel are really on a roll.