Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[InCali]

Yes, the fact that Marvel has twice taken some lesser-known heroes -- the Guardians and Ant-Man -- and made them into such successful movies shows that they know what they're doing, they understand what makes these characters appealing, and they know how to introduce mass audiences to newer characters. The people at Marvel are really on a roll.

The thing Marvel did with both of those was to add some off beat humor to them. The way GotG started off with Peter dancing and smacking around those nasty little creatures in rhythm set the tone for the entire movie (though I'm not a creature smacker myself....I pick up spiders and gently relocate them to the garden). With Ant-Man, they brought in the same quirky humor, but put it in a family setting which allowed for an emotional involvement of the audience. Very different movies than CA:FA, but very well done. We want some variety. The people who were saying "We don't want the world to be on the brink of destruction every time" got what they asked for in Ant-Man. There's a lot of variety in the Marvel universe. They've done a very good job.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$391,081 on Monday. Puts domestic at about $164.9 million.

 

[kedrell]

A little lower than I had hoped for but well within regular expectations.

 

[JKKS085]

Down 43% from last week. Summer is clearly coming to a close.
Let's see if higher week ends can offset the weaker week days.

Gap with CATFA is down to $4.1M.

 

[kedrell]

$18,902,500 to beat PP2. C'mon Ant-Man! GotG was running slightly more than at 2X the daily take of Ant-Man in it's comparative days at this point and it still made $39m from now till the end of it's run. If that can hold then AM has a possible shot at that $184m.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Down 43% from last week. Summer is clearly coming to a close.

Yep. But that said, my understanding is that there's been something of a trend this year (if not longer) toward weaker Mondays and strong Tuesdays, driven by more theaters discounting on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see tomorrow what the bump was today.

 

[Wildcard]

If that trend continues I'd expect at least a $20-30,000 bump for tomorrow, if not a little more.

 

[JKKS085]

Yep. But that said, my understanding is that there's been something of a trend this year (if not longer) toward weaker Mondays and strong Tuesdays, driven by more theaters discounting on Tuesday. It will be interesting to see tomorrow what the bump was today.

Yes there is a trend, but I'm comparing the Monday gross to another Monday gross. It's a trend that's affecting the Sunday-Monday drop making it steeper with a bigger Monday-Tuesday bump not the Monday-Monday drop (which is affected by more schools being in session and more people being at work though).

 

[InCali]

If that trend continues I'd expect at least a $20-30,000 bump for tomorrow, if not a little more.

I'd expect more than that. The Tuesday bumps have been in the range of 30-40%. I don't know if that will hold, but I'd be thinking in the range of 120-140K or in the range of $500K+.

EDIT: And I think that a rather conservative estimate.

 

[kedrell]

$500k-$550k is my guess for Tuesday.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It appears the marketing push in Japan has begun.

http://www.stitchkingdom.com/disney-watch-antman-takes-falcon-extended-clip-75830/

(Spoilers, obviously.)

 

[InCali]

I was looking at the new releases and think Ant-Man will stay in the top 10 until Sept 11. Man, the movie situation over the next few weeks is just brutal for us movie fans. Glad I have a home theater. It's looking like reruns for me.

 

[Mike5575]

I was looking at the new releases and think Ant-Man will stay in the top 10 until Sept 11. Man, the movie situation over the next few weeks is just brutal for us movie fans. Glad I have a home theater. It's looking like reruns for me.

Just read your sig. I'm so jealous.

 

[InCali]

Just read your sig. I'm so jealous.

I have pics on my website. It's half home theater and half playroom. My kids sometimes go out there, hang out with their friends, and watch Harry Potter movies.

http://www.cloudvistas.com/the-world-of-home-theater-and-its-evolution/

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$500k-$550k is my guess for Tuesday.

You were dead on. $523,960 on Tuesday for a $165.4 domestic total.

 

[kedrell]

I figure Wednesday and Thursday's numbers combined should add up to around $750k or so giving us around $166.15m heading into the weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, I was thinking around $700k today and tomorrow. Boxoffice.com is predicting another $3 million over the weekend.

 

[kedrell]

Well if it has the same 26% drop as last weekend then it'll make $2.995m this weekend so $3m wouldn't take much better to achieve that. It'll break $170m sometime in the later weekdays next week. At $171.7m it's passed a 3X multiplier.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$361,943 yesterday, $165,768,819 domestic total.

 

[InCali]

$361,943 yesterday, $165,768,819 domestic total.

Yup. Definitely pushing 170 by the end of the weekend....I saw that coming a whole week and a half ago!!! They call me Nostradamus.

 

[kedrell]

As long as it tops $169m by Sunday then my current projected model still holds true and XO:W is likely toast(another $10m passed that).

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Nice to see this thing still chugging along and putting up decent numbers

 

[Hotwire]

Needs another $11 million to catch Captain America: TFA.
Currently 11/12 among MCU films.

 

[kedrell]

^That'll happen. Catching Thor1 is more of a question but I hope it can make it.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ant-Man actually gained a little over Wednesday yesterday, hauling in $363,707 to take it just over $166.1 million domestic. Still in a healthy 1,690 theaters this weekend.