Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

If it does that $5 million it will be in the $16.5-17 million range total. Maybe a wee bit higher.

I'm no expert in the Korean box office either but yeah, based on previous Marvel movies' performance, something like $27 million is a reasonable expectation.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com estimating Ant-Man at $1.55 million for the weekend, which would put it just over $176 million domestic, about half a million behind Cap1. Korea added $2.1 million on Saturday. The film should be in the low to mid-390s WW by the time the dust settles this weekend, with Japan on deck on the 19th.

 

[kedrell]

^That's approaching a 50% drop. I knew it wouldn't be able to maintain those 25% drops for this weekend since last was a holiday but I at least was hoping it could remain below 40%. It'll make it well passed the $400m WW mark before China adds to it. Probably around $420m WW sans China.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Slightly higher estimate for the weekend today, $1,613,000, a 44% slip from last weekend. Gives it a domestic total of $176,140,121. Ant-Man needs $514k to pass Cap1.

Korea gave it another $4.8 million over the weekend. Looks like international has already been added into the BO WW estimate, which now stands at $394,720,121.

Other bits and pieces: another $3 million or so WW and Ant-Man + AoU will top $1.8 billion WW. If Ant-Man makes another $42 million beyond that, the MCU as a whole goes over $9 billion. If it makes $18 million beyond that, which seems certain with Japan and China still to come, it will be Marvel's best year at the box office on a WW basis.

 

[InCali]

Slightly higher estimate for the weekend today, $1,613,000, a 44% slip from last weekend. Gives it a domestic total of $176,140,121. Ant-Man needs $514k to pass Cap1.

Korea gave it another $4.8 million over the weekend. Looks like international has already been added into the BO WW estimate, which now stands at $394,720,121.

Other bits and pieces: another $3 million or so WW and Ant-Man + AoU will top $1.4 billion WW. If Ant-Man makes another $42 million beyond that, the MCU as a whole goes over $9 billion. If it makes $18 million beyond that, which seems certain with Japan and China still to come, it will be Marvel's best year at the box office on a WW basis.

I'm not quite sure what you mean or if this was a typo. AoU made slightly over 1.4B WW by itself. Add the close to 400M for AM and it would top 1.8B. In fact, I think it's pretty close to a lock that Marvel will go over 1.9B for 2015. Not bad for a bunch of a-holes.

Not a single person voted for the WW box office range that AM would make on this poll.t:

EDIT: Was the first Avengers movie the only offering for 2012? I think that's the case.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup, 1.8. Fixed, thanks.

 

[kedrell]

Hopefully next weekend we can go back to those nice 25% drops we were having for a few weeks straight, but the holiday-to-non-holiday higher drop was expected and school being in is now a factor as well. Hopefully it can still make around $1.2m next weekend. Cap1 should be passed before the next weekend starts. Then XO:W and then Thor.

 

[kedrell]

I'm not quite sure what you mean or if this was a typo. AoU made slightly over 1.4B WW by itself. Add the close to 400M for AM and it would top 1.8B. In fact, I think it's pretty close to a lock that Marvel will go over 1.9B for 2015. Not bad for a bunch of a-holes.

Not a single person voted for the WW box office range that AM would make on this poll.t:

EDIT: Was the first Avengers movie the only offering for 2012? I think that's the case.

Yes, 2012 only had that 1 movie. 2009 is the only year with no movies and 2010 is the only other year with just 1 movie(IM2). All the rest are 2-film years. 2013 is the reinging champ in terms of WW box office for the company. It will certainly be passed by this year soon. All Ant-Man needs is to cross $460m WW so it only'll need $40m from China.

So since I love arranging things in ordered lists, here's the MCU's years in business by $ ranking(currently):

1. 2013 $1.860b
2. 2015 $1.797b
3. 2012 $1.519b
4. 2014 $1.489b
5. 2008 $0.848b
6. 2011 $0.820b
7. 2010 $0.624b
8. 2009 $0.00b

 

[InCali]

Hopefully next weekend we can go back to those nice 25% drops we were having for a few weeks straight, but the holiday-to-non-holiday higher drop was expected and school being in is now a factor as well. Hopefully it can still make around $1.2m next weekend. Cap1 should be passed before the next weekend starts. Then XO:W and then Thor.

I have a sneaking suspicion that Maze Runner is going to jump into the AM demo and take a lot of $$$. I think that because everybody is just like me and is interested in exactly what I'm interested in. That's not speculation; that's a fact.

 

[kedrell]

Yes, MR2 will siphon off some of AM's audience. I forgot that was coming out. As for this next crop of weekdays, I'm guessing it'll make around $100k Monday, Tuesday around $130k, Wednesday around $95k and $85k on Thursday for a total of $410k. Cap1 might need Friday in order for it to be passed, actually. Should be well into the $177m after this weekend, maybe cross $178m at the upper limit. Within 2 weeks after that XO:W will fall. And at some point it'll get a boost from it's release into discount theaters just before the end of it's run.

 

[InCali]

Yes, 2012 only had that 1 movie. 2009 is the only year with no movies and 2010 is the only other year with just 1 movie(IM2). All the rest are 2-film years. 2013 is the reinging champ in terms of WW box office for the company. It will certainly be passed by this year soon. All Ant-Man needs is to cross $460m WW so it only'll need $40m from China.

So since I love arranging things in ordered lists, here's the MCU's years in business by $ ranking(currently):

1. 2013 $1.860b
2. 2015 $1.797b
3. 2012 $1.519b
4. 2014 $1.489b
5. 2008 $0.848b
6. 2011 $0.820b
7. 2010 $0.624b
8. 2009 $0.00b

I wonder if Fox would have any backlash from their shareholders if this represented their income from their Marvel movies?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Yes, MR2 will siphon off some of AM's audience. I forgot that was coming out. As for this next crop of weekdays, I'm guessing it'll make around $100k Monday, Tuesday around $130k, Wednesday around $95k and $85k on Thursday for a total of $410k. Cap1 might need Friday in order for it to be passed, actually. Should be well into the $177m after this weekend, maybe cross $178m at the upper limit. Within 2 weeks after that XO:W will fall. And at some point it'll get a boost from it's release into discount theaters just before the end of it's run.

Well, it's had one helluva run. Ant-Man is like The Little Engine That Could--and it did!

 

[InCali]

Well, it's had one helluva run. Ant-Man is like The Little Engine That Could--and it did!

It's not over yet. It hasn't even opened in Japan or China and seems to be doing very, very well in the Asian markets.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I meant it as a general statement. I know it's still running.

 

[InCali]

I meant it as a general statement. I know it's still running.

And I knew that you knew that I knew that.....

 

[Flint Marko]

If this could get close to $500 million WW, I'd be tickled pink.

 

[InCali]

If this could get close to $500 million WW, I'd be tickled pink.

You keep low balling it. From all the signs I can see, 500M is pretty much happening. 550 is a maybe, but who knows? It might go gangbusters in Japan and China. We'll find out pretty soon.

 

[Flint Marko]

You keep low balling it. From all the signs I can see, 500M is pretty much happening. 550 is a maybe, but who knows? It might go gangbusters in Japan and China. We'll find out pretty soon.

I don't know anything about box office numbers, but I usually lean towards the conservative side. But that's great to hear.
Hey remember when Ant-mans opening weekend came in slightly lower than expected and certain people were calling it a failure? Good times.

 

[InCali]

I don't know anything about box office numbers, but I usually lean towards the conservative side. But that's great to hear.
Hey remember when Ant-mans opening weekend came in slightly lower than expected and certain people were calling it a failure? Good times.

Sure do. Remember when FF's opening weekend came in slightly lower than expected and certain.....oh, wait, that was different, but still Good Times.

 

[Hotwire]

Needs just over $500,000 to pass Captain America: TFA.

 

[Hotwire]

yes, mr2 will siphon off some of am's audience. I forgot that was coming out. As for this next crop of weekdays, i'm guessing it'll make around $100k monday, tuesday around $130k, wednesday around $95k and $85k on thursday for a total of $410k. Cap1 might need friday in order for it to be passed, actually. Should be well into the $177m after this weekend, maybe cross $178m at the upper limit. Within 2 weeks after that xo:w will fall. And at some point it'll get a boost from it's release into discount theaters just before the end of it's run.

mr2?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Maze Runner 2, I believe.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

So how possible is 500 m WW at this point?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So how possible is 500 m WW at this point?

Seems like it will be hard to miss. Ant-Man is around $395 million WW now. There's at least another $10 million left in Korea and I would guess at least $4-5 million domestic, maybe more. It opens in Japan this weekend and Ant-Man has been performing solidly in Asia. No reason to expect less than $20 million there, probably more. My guess is it will be somewhere in the $430-450 million range by the time it gets to China and I think it tops $100 million there.

 

[InCali]

Seems like it will be hard to miss. Ant-Man is around $395 million WW now. There's at least another $10 million left in Korea and I would guess at least $4-5 million domestic, maybe more. It opens in Japan this weekend and Ant-Man has been performing solidly in Asia. No reason to expect less than $20 million there, probably more. My guess is it will be somewhere in the $430-450 million range by the time it gets to China and I think it tops $100 million there.

I think 550 is very possible also. Not sure how the exchange rate with China will play out, but it sure isn't going to help. We could always look at it from the perspective of the Yuan and it would look a lot better. t: