Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

Weekend actual was $1,657,917 for a domestic total of $176,185,038. Ant-Man needs $469,468 to pass TFA.

 

[JKKS085]

It's dailies are now about 3X higher than CATFA. The week end is 2.97X higher than CATFA's ninth week end and Ant-Man is about 2.94X bigger than CATFA's on their respective 59th day of release. CATFA went on grossing an additional 2.35M, Ant-Man legitimately has a shot at making another 7 millions or so (if it keeps that pace against CATFA, so far it keeps improving week after week). I want to say that 183M+ is definitely in order now.

Otherwise the os estimates seems pretty spot on. 20M in Japan might be a little high (and the market is known for not always playing exactly like other asian markets especially with cbms) and I wouldn't be so sure about 100M in China either (see MI-RN coming relatively below expectations there, and then there's the exchange rate issue, late release date and piracy problems). But 430M before China opens seems rather doable. That leaves 70M to gross there to get to 500M which is definitely more likely to happen than not.

 

[kedrell]

Needs just over $500,000 to pass Captain America: TFA.

Actuals are in and $470k will see it pass CA:TFA.

Edit: SomeOldGuy beat me to it.

 

[Tymminator]

Once in a while, you STILL see somebody on the net saying "Antman is a disappointment for Marvel Studios/Disney" and when you see that it just tells you that there are people who have no clue what the heck they're talking about.

When some people said it after opening weekend, all it told you was those people just don't understand how box office work and they needed to actually observed it's box office over at least a few weeks to see how it would behave, but now that we are in several weeks of Ant-Man performing good holds, people should just know better.

 

[InCali]

Once in a while, you STILL see somebody on the net saying "Antman is a disappointment for Marvel Studios/Disney" and when you see that it just tells you that there are people who have no clue what the heck they're talking about.

When some people said it after opening weekend, all it told you was those people just don't understand how box office work and they needed to actually observed it's box office over at least a few weeks to see how it would behave, but now that we are in several weeks of Ant-Man performing good holds, people should just know better.

Yeah. Sometimes people see what they want to see or just don't understand how things work. I've seen a few people say "Well, at least FF made its production budget back". Uh....okay, then AM is going to make like 400M in profit.....

Neither, of course, is correct. My guess is that AM will be quite profitable (something in the neighborhood of 100M+). Its BO receipts look to be about 4X it's production budget when all is said and done. That ends up being a tidy sum for Marvel (and you can add the money they get from Fox for FF ).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$127,061 for Monday, a reasonably gentle 33% drop from last Monday. $344k more in Korea Tuesday.

$342,407 to go to top TFA!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Once in a while, you STILL see somebody on the net saying "Antman is a disappointment for Marvel Studios/Disney" and when you see that it just tells you that there are people who have no clue what the heck they're talking about.

When some people said it after opening weekend, all it told you was those people just don't understand how box office work and they needed to actually observed it's box office over at least a few weeks to see how it would behave, but now that we are in several weeks of Ant-Man performing good holds, people should just know better.

It's been fun to watch the goal posts being moved on a few different forums and comment threads around the innertubes. First Ant-Man was a flop because it "under performed" on opening weekend. Then when it started to develop decent legs and looked like it would at least meet and maybe exceed expectations, the argument shifted to, well, yeah that would be a success for any movie but a Marvel movie. Then when it started to look like it would beat TFA it was, yeah, well, TFA was considered a disappointment, right? Then when it started to look like it would get close to and maybe pass Thor1, it was, well, yeah, but you have to account for ticket price inflation. And now that it's starting to look like it will hit $500 million worldwide it's...well, it's mostly crickets. t:

 

[InCali]

It's been fun to watch the goal posts being moved on a few different forums and comment threads around the innertubes. First Ant-Man was a flop because it "under performed" on opening weekend. Then when it started to develop decent legs and looked like it would at least meet and maybe exceed expectations, the argument shifted to, well, yeah that would be a success for any movie but a Marvel movie. Then when it started to look like it would beat TFA it was, yeah, well, TFA was considered a disappointment, right? Then when it started to look like it would get close to and maybe pass Thor1, it was, well, yeah, but you have to account for ticket price inflation. And now that it's starting to look like it will hit $500 million worldwide it's...well, it's mostly crickets. t:

So, if AM does pass Thor 1, it will rank #5 on first efforts for Marvel characters (sorry, I can't bring myself to include Big Hero 6 for more than one reason).

Those first efforts are:

Avengers
Guardians of the Galaxy
Spider Man
Iron Man

While it definitely benefited from the solidifying of the Marvel Brand, that's still not too bad for a lesser known character. If it hadn't been a very good, appealing movie, it wouldn't be anywhere near where it is.

A complete and utter failure according to some.......

 

[JKKS085]

So, if AM does pass Thor 1, it will rank #5 on first efforts for Marvel characters (sorry, I can't bring myself to include Big Hero 6 for more than one reason).

Those first efforts are:

Avengers
Guardians of the Galaxy
Spider Man
Iron Man

While it definitely benefited from the solidifying of the Marvel Brand, that's still not too bad for a lesser known character. If it hadn't been a very good, appealing movie, it wouldn't be anywhere near where it is.

A complete and utter failure according to some.......

It's going to be the highest grossing solo origin movie for a character not named Spider-Man, Superman or Iron Man. That speaks volumes not only about the current state of the genre but also the power of the Marvel brand. That's freakin' Ant-Man we're talking about ! A character no one heard or cared about 6 months ago. That's an amazing achievement by any measure.

 

[kedrell]

$127,061 for Monday, a reasonably gentle 33% drop from last Monday. $344k more in Korea Tuesday.

$342,407 to go to top TFA!

That's a helluva lot better than I expected, which was an even $100k or so. I love it when my guesses end up being low. Nothing wrong with that at all IMO. The better this does the more I like it.

 

[kedrell]

It's going to be the highest grossing solo origin movie for a character not named Spider-Man, Superman or Iron Man. That speaks volumes not only about the current state of the genre but also the power of the Marvel brand. That's freakin' Ant-Man we're talking about ! A character no one heard or cared about 6 months ago. That's an amazing achievement by any measure.

Not only that but it's currently got the 3rd best legs of the 12 MCU movies after the first Iron Man and GotG. If it can manage to pass $184,765,221 then it'll be #2 and pass IM1(I'm not counting on it though but it's not impossible).

 

[kedrell]

Yeah. Sometimes people see what they want to see or just don't understand how things work. I've seen a few people say "Well, at least FF made its production budget back". Uh....okay, then AM is going to make like 400M in profit.....

Neither, of course, is correct. My guess is that AM will be quite profitable (something in the neighborhood of 100M+). Its BO receipts look to be about 4X it's production budget when all is said and done. That ends up being a tidy sum for Marvel (and you can add the money they get from Fox for FF ).

Well you figure that conventional wisdom states that after it passed $260m WW it was in the black and after $325m WW it was sequel worthy based on it's budget. Well it's looking like it's going to close out $200m beyond even that mark most likely. Still, we quite possibly won't get a sequel, or at least not one for some time simply due to Marvel already having their plans in place and not having available space in Phase 3 for a sequel. But if not for all that then a sequel would be a no-brainer by any standard in Hollywood.

 

[kedrell]

Monday, AM's 60th day was 2.94X CA:TFA's 60th day(also a Monday). If that ratio holds all the way through to the end then AM has $6.8m left to go which would put it at $183.1m. I'd hate for it to come so close to beating PP2 domestic only to stop(it's already trounced it WW though). I'd need only $674K to pass it at that point. Only another $980k would be needed passed that to beat IM1's legs.

 

[InCali]

Well you figure that conventional wisdom states that after it passed $260m WW it was in the black and after $325m WW it was sequel worthy based on it's budget. Well it's looking like it's going to close out $200m beyond even that mark most likely. Still, we quite possibly won't get a sequel, or at least not one for some time simply due to Marvel already having their plans in place and not having available space in Phase 3 for a sequel. But if not for all that then a sequel would be a no-brainer by any standard in Hollywood.

Yeah....I don't see a sequel happening because there are so many other characters Marvel wants to introduce and I think that's a smart decision on their part. These upcoming movies have a chance to really take off and can set the stage for some new supergroup movies. marvel has set the table for the future really nicely and it'll take some massive blunders to derail this train; blunders Marvel hasn't made yet (and so probably won't) and therefore has built up a lot of trust and goodwill with the public.

We really haven't ever seen anything quite like this studio franchise. Harry Potter was probably the closest, but that was focused on a small group of protagonists and didn't have the breadth of characters, villains, and stories to draw on.

 

[Tymminator]

Call me crazy, but I think we will hear about a sequel sooner than we would have thought.

 

[InCali]

Call me crazy, but I think we will hear about a sequel sooner than we would have thought.

Maybe, but when??? It will also depend on how Dr. Strange, Cap Marvel, Black Panther, etc. are received and how necessary any of the possible sequels are to advancing MCU. I could see Marvel putting out a sequel that they know will make a little less money if it was important to setting up something big (like the New Avengers) in the future.

I think that's what they're doing now (setting up a new Avengers team). I think an Avengers with BP, CM, AM, Wasp, SW, etc. could be pretty frelling cool. Wish we could include QS in that team like the old comics did.......

 

[Tymminator]

Maybe, but when??? It will also depend on how Dr. Strange, Cap Marvel, Black Panther, etc. are received and how necessary any of the possible sequels are to advancing MCU. I could see Marvel putting out a sequel that they know will make a little less money if it was important to setting up something big (like the New Avengers) in the future.

I think that's what they're doing now (setting up a new Avengers team). I think an Avengers with BP, CM, AM, Wasp, SW, etc. could be pretty frelling cool. Wish we could include QS in that team like the old comics did.......

I don't know when, but if Rudd and Douglas are really having fun with this series, I don't see Feige letting the opportunity slip for too long before they either lose interest or are committed to something else.

Re:Quicksilver. I don't care if its called a copout, but I hope somehow in Infinity War, Scarlet Witch finds a way to bring him back.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ouch. Looks like Ant-Man took a big hit in Korea Wednesday. It lost a bit more than half its screens (from 800 to 398) to a local film, The Throne, and MR2. Only $140k for the day, bringing it to $17.8 million.

 

[InCali]

I don't know when, but if Rudd and Douglas are really having fun with this series, I don't see Feige letting the opportunity slip for too long before they either lose interest or are committed to something else.

Re:Quicksilver. I don't care if its called a copout, but I hope somehow in Infinity War, Scarlet Witch finds a way to bring him back.

Me too. I hated that......they were part of the early Avengers (around issue 15 or so.)

 

[InCali]

I don't know when, but if Rudd and Douglas are really having fun with this series, I don't see Feige letting the opportunity slip for too long before they either lose interest or are committed to something else.

Re:Quicksilver. I don't care if its called a copout, but I hope somehow in Infinity War, Scarlet Witch finds a way to bring him back.

I'm sure they've got Rudd wrapped up for at least a 5 picture deal. He's in CW and I'm guessing IW1 and 2 also. It also seems inconceivable that they wouldn't have him signed up for at least 1 more movie.

 

[Spiderdevil]

It's been fun to watch the goal posts being moved on a few different forums and comment threads around the innertubes. First Ant-Man was a flop because it "under performed" on opening weekend. Then when it started to develop decent legs and looked like it would at least meet and maybe exceed expectations, the argument shifted to, well, yeah that would be a success for any movie but a Marvel movie. Then when it started to look like it would beat TFA it was, yeah, well, TFA was considered a disappointment, right? Then when it started to look like it would get close to and maybe pass Thor1, it was, well, yeah, but you have to account for ticket price inflation. And now that it's starting to look like it will hit $500 million worldwide it's...well, it's mostly crickets. t:

Its completely ridiculous, why are some websites and reporters behaving like it completely tanked?

On report in particular went 'Ant man is a failure because I didn't enjoy it and it has made the lowest of all Marvel movies save TFA'

I literally faceopalmed, I mean, it will probably cross Thor and end up at 500m, and it has a budget lowest among all 12 Marvel movies, and it ends up making like 3.8 times its budget, by comparison, the poster boy of Marvel success, GOGT made 3.35 ots budget

o

 

[Solaire]

Is 500 million a possibility?

 

[InCali]

Is 500 million a possibility?

I think it's a VERY good possibility. It has yet to open in Japan and China and got what I think is a better slot (albeit later) in China. It will "easily" pass 400M with its current openings. As Old Guy said though, it got severely cut back in Korea and the box office went way down.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$139,389 domestic Tuesday. $203,018 to go to beat TFA.

 

[InCali]

$139,389 domestic Tuesday. $203,018 to go to beat TFA.

Happens Thursday. Maybe down to about 1M this weekend?