Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[kedrell]

All Ant-Man needs now is another $3m and this will be Marvel's biggest year ever at the movies in terms of WW grosses, beating previous champ 2013($1.8602 billion). In 2015 they should top $1.9b easily. Hell, if you toss Fant4stic in there then Marvel movies in 2015 will have already crossed the $2b mark WW. Superhero fatigue my ass.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Done!

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan earned est. $5.0M on Monday. China's 4-day total stands at $47.6M. http://t.co/WUK8VoPTyb

 

[kedrell]

So it should be at around $459m WW now adding that to AoU's $1.4028b gives the MCU's 2015 WW tally at $1.8618b WW, passing 2013 by $1.6m.

 

[InCali]

Done!

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan earned est. $5.0M on Monday. China's 4-day total stands at $47.6M. http://t.co/WUK8VoPTyb

That is RAD. That's a way bigger opening week than I would have imagined. Does it get another 45M and hit 500M WW??

Been kind of out of the picture lately (Bashing Donald Trump for fun).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Does it get another 45M and hit 500M WW??

It's very likely. From what I read, Friday and Saturday in China were boffo, but the Sunday and Monday holds were not special. Not bad, just average. It may be that the continued rapid growth in the number of theaters in China is making films like this more front-loaded. In other words, the fact it was the second- or third-biggest Marvel movie opening probably had more to do with more people being able to see it early than anything else.

That said, WOM is reportedly good and even with typical holds it should get very close to $100 million in China.

 

[Wildcard]

Well, Ant-Man has officially surpassed all but one of the solo phase 1 films...so where are all the people that tried to pass this one off as a failure earlier?

In any event, I'm very pleased to see it's doing well in China. My prediction is that it should hopefully end around the $540 mark WW.

 

[kedrell]

Actually there are 2 phase 1 solo films that are still ahead of it(and it's very unlikely Ant-Man will be passing them ever), Iron Man 1 & 2.

 

[InCali]

Actually there are 2 phase 1 solo films that are still ahead of it(and it's very unlikely Ant-Man will be passing them ever), Iron Man 1 & 2.

Yeah.....IM is a different bird than the rest of Marvel.....so far. I'm looking forward to Dr. Strange. I watched the Sherlock Holmes mini that Cumberbatch did. Didn't like the end (wanted more), but he was terrific (and so was Freeman). Really good work by both of them.

 

[Dark Raven]

So Ant-Man didn't even need to open in the US and it already matched most of FFINO's entire domestic run in its opening weekend in China?

 

[Flint Marko]

This just keeps getting better and better.

 

[Whiskey Tango]

So Ant-Man didn't even need to open in the US and it already matched most of FFINO's entire domestic run in its opening weekend in China?

It's not like we didn't warn them.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Today's update...

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan took in est. $4.5M on Tuesday. China's 5-day total stands at $52.5M. @MrPeytonReed @AntMan

 

[InCali]

Today's update...

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan took in est. $4.5M on Tuesday. China's 5-day total stands at $52.5M. @MrPeytonReed @AntMan

Wow. I'm thinking it really can crack 100M in China. I know they don't let movies play as long as they do here, but it looks like China gave AM a pretty favorable opening date compared to some others (which opened on top of each other in September). Two things.....What else is opening in China soon? How long of a run does AM look to have there?

Wonder if the move date had something to do with the Disney/China collaboration on the new park? Has anyone seen the design? It looks absolutely insane.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Per the BOT guys:

Pan - 10.22
Everest - 11.03
TMR2 - 11.04
Peanuts - 11.06
Spectre - 11.13
THG:MJ2 - 11.20
The Martian - 11.25
SpongeBob - 11.30

 

[Tymminator]

That's a lot of screens, that can hurt the end total. Still I think it's safe to think Ant-man will still hit 90M+. Also safe to say 500M+WW is a lock.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Foreign films normally only get four week runs from the Chinese Powers-That-Be. By the third week they bleed a lot of screens and week four is basically a joke. So I'm happy with nothing more than Pan to distract audiences for the first two weeks. You really couldn't have asked for better.

Wednesday #'s:

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 6h6 hours ago
#ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan earned est. $3.9M on Weds. China's 6-day total stands at $56.2M.

 

[InCali]

Foreign films normally only get four week runs from the Chinese Powers-That-Be. By the third week they bleed a lot of screens and week four is basically a joke. So I'm happy with nothing more than Pan to distract audiences for the first two weeks. You really couldn't have asked for better.

Wednesday #'s:

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 6h6 hours ago
#ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan earned est. $3.9M on Weds. China's 6-day total stands at $56.2M.

If there's less than a 50% drop next weekend, it would look to hit or push 100M there. In any case, I think 500M+ looks pretty good.

 

[Dark Raven]

Four weeks for Fant4stic to try to do well in the Chinese market then and equal Ant-Man's opening day in China.

 

[Tymminator]

Four weeks for Fant4stic to try to do well in the Chinese market then and equal Ant-Man's opening day in China.

I don't think it's (F4) opening in China at all, unless I missed something.

 

[Dark Raven]

I don't think it's (F4) opening in China at all, unless I missed something.

Well if it did, it would be a load of bull in a China shop.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

If FF does ever open in China it won't be until 2016 because all the slots for Hollywood films allowed by the Chinese have been filled for this year. I doubt it ever gets a Chinese theatrical release, those limited slots are too valuable to waste on a bomb like FF.

 

[InCali]

If FF does ever open in China it won't be until 2016 because all the slots for Hollywood films allowed by the Chinese have been filled for this year. I doubt it ever gets a Chinese theatrical release, those limited slots are too valuable to waste on a bomb like FF.

Star Wars could bomb too. Maybe they'll put off its opening or just scrub it and give its slot to FF....or maybe not.....

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan earned est $3.5M on Thursday. China's 1-week total is $59.4M.

I'd guess it will do $15-20 million over the weekend, giving it $75-80 million in China and $485-90 WW.

 

[Tymminator]

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice #AntMan earned est $3.5M on Thursday. China's 1-week total is $59.4M.

I'd guess it will do $15-20 million over the weekend, giving it $75-80 million in China and $485-90 WW.

 

[Wildcard]

Four weeks for Fant4stic to try to do well in the Chinese market then and equal Ant-Man's opening day in China.

There's absolutely no reason as to why F4 would ever be released in China theatrically...and if it did it would certainly bomb. That's one movie China would not bother trying to save.