Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[JKKS085]

$660,581 on Wednesday, that's 33% above Captain America The First Avenger on its 34th day of release ($400,440). The gap between Ant-Man's domestic take and CATFA is now down to $6.3M (was $11.2M after the 2nd week end).

$660,581 is also a 33.3% decrease from last week which is the best weekly drop the film registered on Wednesday so far.

 

[kedrell]

That puts it about 160K behind FF. We'll see what happens this weekend when FF loses a bunch of its screens. Any predictions?

I already guessed Ant-Man would pass FF by the FF's 3rd weekend.

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=31982651&postcount=861

If I'm wrong then it'll definitely do it by next weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$626,369 Thursday to take it to $160.4 million domestic. Ought to be around $164 million after the weekend.

 

[InCali]

$626,369 Thursday to take it to $160.4 million domestic. Ought to be around $164 million after the weekend.

Yeah. It's definitely going to go over 170M. Maybe not by a whole lot, but it will easily clear it. It looks like it will end up with a multiplier of 3. I also think it will hit 300M Foreign without too much of a sweat. If it goes over big in China, the total BO could get right up on 500M (This was my beginning guess, but there wasn't a selection box for it in the poll......???).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I've been trying not to think about $500 million but yeah, IMO it still has a (long) shot at it. Latest international # is $193.3 million, so WW right now is about 353.7 million. My guess is it creeps up into the mid-360s WW before it opens in South Korea Sep. 3. That'll be the first big test to see if one of the big Asian markets matches the good performance of smaller ones like Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Assuming, of course, that the current spattering of artillery shells between North and South doesn't worsen...

 

[InCali]

I've been trying not to think about $500 million but yeah, IMO it still has a (long) shot at it. Latest international # is $193.3 million, so WW right now is about 253.7 million. My guess is it creeps up into the mid-260s WW before it opens in South Korea Sep. 3. That'll be the first big test to see if one of the big Asian markets matches the good performance of smaller ones like Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Assuming, of course, that the current spattering of artillery shells between North and South doesn't worsen...

Mid 360s, but, yes, I get you. I don't see any reason it doesn't creep up near 370. That would be another 7M US and OS after this weekend. From there, who knows?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Doh! Me and math are old enemies... t:

 

[Tymminator]

I remember it's first weekend someone said this would not TOUCH 150M and al that jazz...shows they didn't know the power of great box office legs.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I remember it's first weekend someone said this would not TOUCH 150M and al that jazz...shows they didn't know the power of great box office legs.

DaLoneWolf and Heretic have been conspicuously absent from this thread.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I remember it's first weekend someone said this would not TOUCH 150M and al that jazz...shows they didn't know the power of great box office legs.

The must've based their estimates on TIH.

Ant-Man is just way more fun. It has some of the best legs of any MCU film.

 

[Tymminator]

DaLoneWolf and Heretic have been conspicuously absent from this thread.

Dalonewolf got banned I think.

 

[JKKS085]

I suppose Heretic would say something about blue colored glasses, brand managment, Avengers' audience staying home and some money left on the table. Also Marvel not thrilled and not a blockbuster.

dalonewolf would as usual derail the thread to spin MoS bo run as the greatest thing ever, he would go on explaining how AoU sucked and BvS OMG biggest film ever at the bo y'all see !!!!

Some people are just broken records.

 

[kedrell]

I'm guessing that heading into next weekend(6 weeks in) it'll already be dead even with 50 Shades of Grey($166m) and a week later after the following Thursday(7 weeks in) it should be right at $170m. It'll likely keep dropping in the 30-35% range until they seriously chop off it's theater counts, and who knows when that will be. But we are heading into the deadest time of the year for the box office so demand for it to give up screens won't be as high. Plus it'll get some sort of boost from the Labor Day weekend which can only help it. And the fact that we have a late Labor Day this year will also help it by extending the summer season another week(which will be this film's 8th week in theaters). I'm betting that week the holiday may push the drop down into the high 20% range for once. Will probably be at around $172-173m by then. All in all I'm thinking it has similar legs to the first Iron Man movie. $180m will be tough but the deadness of this time of year will give it a fighting chance at that. Maybe by week 12 it'll be there.

At this point I'd say beating CA:TFA both DOM and WW is basically a lock. So it'll end up the 3rd or 4th lowest grossing MCU movie. Not bad at all.

Of course I'm always hoping that some weird cultural phenomenon type thing can still happen like how Frozen went bananas in Japan for some mysterious reason and became the highest grossing foreign film of all time over there. I mean...it could happen, you never know. No one predicted Frozen making north of $200m in Japan alone.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Deadline now projecting $4.1 to $4.3 million for the weekend, which would be a ridiculous 22% hold vs. last week.

 

[bubbadoom]

Nice to see Ant Man finally pass Sponge Bob this weekend, and I guess 50 Shades of Grey after the next, not sure how much higher it will go...

 

[JKKS085]

At this point I'd say beating CA:TFA both DOM and WW is basically a lock. So it'll end up the 3rd or 4th lowest grossing MCU movie. Not bad at all.

I wouldn't say it's lock to pass CATFA dom, however with another great hold this week end it's definitely within the ream of possibility. I'd be much more confident if Labor Day was next week end and not the week end after (Cap got a boost on its 7th week end, Ant-Man will get it on its 8th).
However AM is projected to do better on its 6th week end than Cap on its 5th so I wouldn't be surprised if it came ahead next week end even without the benefit of the Labor Day week end boost.

After the week end the gap between AM and CATFA should be down to around 4.2m.

 

[InCali]

Deadline now projecting $4.1 to $4.3 million for the weekend, which would be a ridiculous 22% hold vs. last week.

Wow. That's crazy low. Hate to give you a hard time, but it's more like a 78% hold?? 22% decline??

From BOM Friday Est.: FF 1,070,000, AM 1,178,000. Looks like Kedrell and I were right about AM passing FF in it's 3rd weekend. Kedrell did it very early on like 2 days post FF release. Pretty impressive.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Hold, release, same thing, right? t:

Re Cap1, one thing to consider is that Ant-Man is still in 2,000+ theaters. By contrast TFA was down to 1,424 at this same point (day 36) and would fall to 1,050 by the holiday weekend (starting on day 43).

 

[InCali]

Hold, release, same thing, right? t:

Re Cap1, one thing to consider is that Ant-Man is still in 2,000+ theaters. By contrast TFA was down to 1,424 at this same point (day 36) and would fall to 1,050 by the holiday weekend (starting on day 43).

Yes. That's one advantage of having the mid to late summer rather than early summer release date (Hold date??? t: ). The movies you have to compete with down the road are not nearly as strong. And boy oh boy does it ever look like we've had a lot of late summer stinkers.

 

[Superhero 101]

U guys think it can get to xo wolverine domestic numbers

 

[InCali]

U guys think it can get to xo wolverine domestic numbers

I don't think so, but with the upcoming appus crappus on the horizon, you never know. I don't see any real competition for family audiences on the horizon. Maze Runner will attract some of us, but that's basically a month away. Who knows?

I think AM will be pushing 170M DOM by the end of next weekend. If it can pull in another few 24% drops (which may not be that unlikely), 180M might be on the table. Looks like a bit of a long shot though....

 

[kedrell]

U guys think it can get to xo wolverine domestic numbers

I'm confident it can, though by no means am I certain of it. I'd say at this point regarding DOM box office the best scenario that can be hoped for is for it to just barely pass Pitch Perfect 2($183m). I don't see any notable and remotely achievable milestones after that. But seeing as PP2 is a Universal film and IMO they could do with a hefty dose of being taken down a peg after this wild year of theirs...I'll be rooting for it to get passed by Ant-Man.

 

[kedrell]

I wouldn't say it's lock to pass CATFA dom, however with another great hold this week end it's definitely within the ream of possibility. I'd be much more confident if Labor Day was next week end and not the week end after (Cap got a boost on its 7th week end, Ant-Man will get it on its 8th).
However AM is projected to do better on its 6th week end than Cap on its 5th so I wouldn't be surprised if it came ahead next week end even without the benefit of the Labor Day week end boost.

After the week end the gap between AM and CATFA should be down to around 4.2m.

At this point I'd say it's got around a 3 to 1 shot(in AM's favor) at beating TFA so nearly a lock. It'd take losing a major portion of it's screens for it to miss that mark at this point. FF and Pixels will be giving them up before Ant-Man does.

 

[Vincanws]

Getting a bit Antsy for this to see release in more Asian markets now, especially China. Would be good to see the movie in the $400M+ club.

 

[Lilbaz]

Do you think that ant man hurt itself by having swearing in it? In the uk it was classified a 12. So a lot of parents with younger children would have watched something else. I can only remember 2 times they swore in the film. Was it really necessary as it might have cost them a couple of $mill?