Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[InCali]

ant-Man Monday - $279,286 - $169,484,928

Probably right at about 173 by the end of the Mem weekend?

FF is being closely chased by Vacation, Trainwreck, Southpaw, and Shaun the Sheep.

Passed by Inside Out.

 

[JKKS085]

ant-Man Monday - $279,286 - $169,484,928

Probably right at about 173 by the end of the Mem weekend?

FF is being closely chased by Vacation, Trainwreck, Southpaw, and Shaun the Sheep.

Passed by Inside Out.

Probably closer to $174M if not past that mark after next monday.
That's another great hold today (-28.7% from last monday). $900k Monday-Thursday seems very likely now, and would put the film at $170.1M before the week end. For the week end I think it stays stable-ish for the 3 days (so something around $3M) and increases by 25/30% for the 4 days giving it $3.75M/3.9M. It can go a little under depending on the theater count but $173.5M seems like a done deal.

 

[InCali]

Probably closer to $174M if not past that mark after next monday.
That's another great hold today (-28.7% from last monday). $900k Monday-Thursday seems very likely now, and would put the film at $170.1M before the week end. For the week end I think it stays stable-ish for the 3 days (so something around $3M) and increases by 25/30% for the 4 days giving it $3.75M/3.9M. It can go a little under depending on the theater count but $173.5M seems like a done deal.

I'm thinking that AM will probably have a little larger drop the weekend after the holiday. Maze Runner will be premiering and I think it's going to do quite well.

Does anyone know what it's tracking at?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Boxoffice.com is predicting Maze Runner will do $48 OW and $130 million domestic total.

 

[InCali]

Boxoffice.com is predicting Maze Runner will do $48 OW and $130 million domestic total.

Less than I would have thought, but I love that kind of $#!t. Guess everyone ain't me...ehhh??

 

[kedrell]

I'm guessing that the Tuesday number will be right up on the underside of $400k and just miss it by a relatively small amount. That'd be a 40% increase over Monday. Then probably another $500k combined between Wednesday and Thursday bringing the total to around $170.3m heading into the holiday weekend. It'll cross into the $170m range on Wednesday(today).

 

[InCali]

I'm guessing that the Tuesday number will be right up on the underside of $400k and just miss it by a relatively small amount. That'd be a 40% increase over Monday. Then probably another $500k combined between Wednesday and Thursday bringing the total to around $170.3m heading into the holiday weekend. It'll cross into the $170m range on Wednesday(today).

If there were another 25% drop (which seems kind of crazy low, but that's what it's been dropping with all the $#!t that's been gracing the screens), that would make it about a 2.3M weekend, but with the extra holiday, what would that bring in? Maybe another 600K or thereabouts?). That would have it cross the 173M threshold sometime on Monday??

Do you see a slightly larger drop when Maze Runner opens the following weekend?

Can you even imagine how badly FF would have tanked if there was any kind of competition (besides SOC) after it opened? If it had opened anytime near JW, it would have gotten absolutely flattened.....not that it didn't fall pretty flat even without any competition.....

 

[kedrell]

I think with the holiday boost it'll get(for the 3-day) only around a drop in the teens or even as low as high single digits in terms of %. So I'd say for the 3-day weekend that it'll be at least $2.5m is my guess. Probably will make another $750k on Monday as well for around a $3.25m 4-day weekend number which should put it around $173.5m by the end of that time. Add another $500-600k for the Tues-Thurs weekdays next week and it'll go into the weekend after Labor Day with $174m, maybe make $2m on that weekend and then be in a dead heat with CA:TFA at that point with $176m vs Cap's $176.6m. Add the next full round of weekdays then and it'll pass TFA for certain by 10 days after Labor Day. It might have as much as another $5m or so left in the DOM tank after that so passing Thor1 isn't out of the question.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Just a baby bump for yesterday, $327,557. Puts the domestic total at $169,812,485, so it looks like it will tip over the $170 million mark today.

 

[InCali]

Just a baby bump for yesterday, $327,557. Puts the domestic total at $169,812,485, so it looks like it will tip over the $170 million mark today.

I wondered about how virtually everyone being back at school would affect the Tuesday bump. It appears to have been pretty significant.

 

[InCali]

I think with the holiday boost it'll get(for the 3-day) only around a drop in the teens or even as low as high single digits in terms of %. So I'd say for the 3-day weekend that it'll be at least $2.5m is my guess. Probably will make another $750k on Monday as well for around a $3.25m 4-day weekend number which should put it around $173.5m by the end of that time. Add another $500-600k for the Tues-Thurs weekdays next week and it'll go into the weekend after Labor Day with $174m, maybe make $2m on that weekend and then be in a dead heat with CA:TFA at that point with $176m vs Cap's $176.6m. Add the next full round of weekdays then and it'll pass TFA for certain by 10 days after Labor Day. It might have as much as another $5m or so left in the DOM tank after that so passing Thor1 isn't out of the question.

Yeah.....I shoulda thought about the low Sunday drop. Sometimes I can be stupid that way. It's not like I didn't realize people have Monday off.....yeesh.....

 

[kedrell]

I wondered about how virtually everyone being back at school would affect the Tuesday bump. It appears to have been pretty significant.

Yeah, that's a rather disappointing Tuesday number. I was rather hoping for the usual 30-40% increase and it only increased 17%. I guess it might need to wait for tomorrow to cross the $170m threshold(and we'll learn about it on Friday when the previous day's numbers are posted). I hope this is just an anomaly rather than the start of a trend. I've been enjoying the circa' 25% drops it's been having for the last few weekends and hope for it to continue as long as possible. But yes, the kids going back to school was always going to be a hurdle to cross for this film.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It did have a modest Tuesday bump but OTOH if you look back at Monday, it only dropped about 28% versus the prior Monday. Previous Monday drops in August had been in the 37-43% range.

boxoffice.com seems bullish on Ant-Man headed into the weekend, predicting $3.7 million for the four-day span.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...-the-transporter-refueled-a-walk-in-the-woods

 

[InCali]

It did have a modest Tuesday bump but OTOH if you look back at Monday, it only dropped about 28% versus the prior Monday. Previous Monday drops in August had been in the 37-43% range.

boxoffice.com seems bullish on Ant-Man headed into the weekend, predicting $3.7 million for the four-day span.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...-the-transporter-refueled-a-walk-in-the-woods

That would be pretty impressive. If so, JK will be dead on in his 174M total by the end of the weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I have no idea if this figure is good, bad or indifferent, but Ant-Man scored $1,177,038 on opening day (Thursday) in S. Korea.

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

OK, did a little searching on that site for Guardians and AoU, both of which also opened on Thursdays.

GotG did $822k OD and $4.5 million Thurs-Sun. AoU did $4.4 million OD and $25.2 OW. Based on that it looks like Ant-Man is headed for an opening four-day weekend in the high $6/low $7 million range.

 

[InCali]

I have no idea if this figure is good, bad or indifferent, but Ant-Man scored $1,177,038 on opening day (Thursday) in S. Korea.

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

It "sounds" pretty good. It sounds like it could do maybe 8M for the weekend?? That would put in in the same range as F7 which grossed around 24M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It "sounds" pretty good. It sounds like it could do maybe 8M for the weekend?? That would put in in the same range as F7 which grossed around 24M.

Doesn't seem unreasonable. But I barely get the U.S.box office & have no clue what the dynamics are like in Korea.

 

[InCali]

Doesn't seem unreasonable. But I barely get the U.S.box office & have no clue what the dynamics are like in Korea.

Me neither. Ultron did like 80M there. Maybe there'll be a coattails effect. Ultron actually did some filming in S.Korea and I'll bet that helped BO numbers.

 

[InCali]

By comparison, FF has done about 2.5M total and dropped 86% from the first to second Friday (if I'm reading the chart right). From about 1.5M to about 200K.

"What's a marketing report?"

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$241,374 for Wednesday. Again a lighter drop (about a third) vs. last Wednesday than it's had most weeks. Officially over $170 million domestic.

 

[kedrell]

It did have a modest Tuesday bump but OTOH if you look back at Monday, it only dropped about 28% versus the prior Monday. Previous Monday drops in August had been in the 37-43% range.

boxoffice.com seems bullish on Ant-Man headed into the weekend, predicting $3.7 million for the four-day span.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/featured_s...-the-transporter-refueled-a-walk-in-the-woods

That's right in line with my prediction of $3.75m.

 

[kedrell]

I have no idea if this figure is good, bad or indifferent, but Ant-Man scored $1,177,038 on opening day (Thursday) in S. Korea.

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

OK, did a little searching on that site for Guardians and AoU, both of which also opened on Thursdays.

GotG did $822k OD and $4.5 million Thurs-Sun. AoU did $4.4 million OD and $25.2 OW. Based on that it looks like Ant-Man is headed for an opening four-day weekend in the high $6/low $7 million range.

If the ratio against GotG holds all the way through then Ant-Man should finish in South Korea with $14-15m. GotG finished there with $10m.

I only hope it can have such a ratio against GotG in China and Japan. If so then $500m WW is getting crossed for sure, maybe $550m.

That'd be $138m in China and $13-14m in Japan.

 

[kedrell]

$241,374 for Wednesday. Again a lighter drop (about a third) vs. last Wednesday than it's had most weeks. Officially over $170 million domestic.

So that bad Tuesday bump looks like it was more of an anomaly then, good. It'll go into the weekend with $170.3m.

 

[InCali]

If the ratio against GotG holds all the way through then Ant-Man should finish in South Korea with $14-15m. GotG finished there with $10m.

I only hope it can have such a ratio against GotG in China and Japan. If so then $500m WW is getting crossed for sure, maybe $550m.

That'd be $138m in China and $13-14m in Japan.

I think even in the best case scenario, you would have to drop that by maybe 16% due to current economic circumstances. If the 9/18 date holds, probably even lower for China as they've got some very high profile movies stacked head to toe. I'm kind of surprised that Disney can't get a better (later) slot given the money they are spending there; although maybe that's why we haven't gotten a firm release date yet? Maybe there's still talks?

Is there a release date in China yet?

 

[kedrell]

IMDB has the 18th of this month but who knows how accurate that is given the source. Japan's on the 19th. So it should be fully rolled out everywhere inside of 2 weeks from now, basically.