Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Ant-Man could beat Thor domestic and worldwide depending on China.

Is this definitely getting a release in China?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah. I was reading an article in the LA Times talking about how China has very different motivations than what you would think. It was rather interesting.

The gist of the article was that they are more interested in figuring out how the movie industry works than short term profits in their partnerships.

Funny I just had that conversation with a guy who works at the local airport last week. The have a Chinese delegation coming in, and he told me they don't beat around the bush: they just want to know how they make money so they can clone the business model back home.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Is this definitely getting a release in China?

From what I understand yes, Marvel has said it will. But no one is confirming a date yet. So...we wait.

But in the meantime, it looks like Korea + domestic + remaining OS crumbs will take it over $400 million WW, and if Japan follows the rest of Asia it might hit $450 million without China.

 

[InCali]

From what I understand yes, Marvel has said it will. But no one is confirming a date yet. So...we wait.

But in the meantime, it looks like Korea + domestic + remaining OS crumbs will take it over $400 million WW, and if Japan follows the rest of Asia it might hit $450 million without China.

Ant-Man, in spite of my top 10 prediction, finished 11th (or looks to). I had NO idea that Inside Out would gain that many screens. Never in my wildest dreams did I see that coming, but I guess with all of the $#!t coming out, it probably made some sense (though Ant-Man has a much higher per screen average). Did anyone else see that coming?? Also Un Gallo took me completely by surprise.

 

[kedrell]

I didn't but there's still a fair chance that my $3.75m 4-day prediction will end up being true even though my 3-day prediction apparently looks to be around $113k too high(actuals may mitigate that, however).

I was just looking at the WW rankings for 2015 and looking ahead to what's to come for the rest of the year and there are 3 films left this year which are pretty much guaranteed to beat Ant-Man both DOM and WW(Sw7, Spectre and THG4). It's still in a bit of question(though the odds don't favor Ant-Man in this match-up) whether Ant-Man or Cinderella will take the #12 spot for the year WW. The highest end of possible expectations for Ant-Man(if it blows up in China with like around $100m or so, if not better) which are around $550m WW would give it a very slim lead over Cinderella by less then $10m. I don't know what odds I'd give that of happening but at the very least they'd be less than 50% so that is a somewhat unlikely scenario. So this'll end up as #12 or #13 for the year.

 

[InCali]

I zoned and thought Maze Runner opened next weekend and don't think AM will take a big hit next weekend. My god, the movies coming out just suck eggs. I know these are the dog days at the tail end of summer, but this is just ridiculous. I think I'm going to go see AM again for the 4th time (or maybe I can find a showing of AoU).

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Domestic.

Ah. I thought it was another acronym for one of the Marvel movies and I was like, "What the hell film has those initials?" I was wracking my brain trying to figure it out.

 

[InCali]

Ah. I thought it was another acronym for one of the Marvel movies and I was like, "What the hell film has those initials?" I was wracking my brain trying to figure it out.

You were right. It was actually a reference to the FF sequel (which will be getting better reviews than the first one). Fantastic Four: Days of Monotony.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$3.779 million estimated for the 4-day holiday weekend, which would put Ant-Man just over $174 million domestic. Globally it added roughly $700k in Korea Monday for a four day total of $9.9 million. It should pass GotG's entire run in SK after one more day.

 

[InCali]

$3.779 estimated for the 4-day holiday weekend, which would put Ant-Man just over $174 million domestic. Globally it added roughly $700k in Korea Monday for a four day total of $9.9 million. It should pass GotG's entire run in SK after one more day.

Even though I personally like GotG more than Ant-Man (GotG probably being my favorite MCU movie), GotG just didn't translate as well as it could have. I think one reason is that it relied heavily on idioms in it's humor. When I (unfortunately) saw Crapformers (the last one), it had such complex language like "I'll kill you" that it was certainly easier to translate. Why it made so much money is beyond my ability to comprehend.

Glad to see AM is doing well in the Asian markets. The humor will, I think, be easier to translate and it has more of a universal message than a cosmic rock opera.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ant-Man is definitely easier to translate (and the GotG translation job was said to be extra bad). But again I think Ant-Man's look, powers and sensibilities fit well with 40-odd years of characters from Ultraman and his Chinese knockoff Inframan to Kamen Rider and the Power Rangers. Ant-Man has a very Asian superhero flavor and I was very interested from the start to see how that played out. So far, the answer is, very well.

 

[InCali]

Ant-Man is definitely easier to translate (and the GotG translation job was said to be extra bad). But again I think Ant-Man's look, powers and sensibilities fit well with 40-odd years of characters from Ultraman and his Chinese knockoff Inframan to Kamen Rider and the Power Rangers. Ant-Man has a very Asian superhero flavor and I was very interested from the start to see how that played out. So far, the answer is, very well.

Interesting. I was not aware of any of this. AM was a very fun, family friendly movie that had, as my wife said, something for everyone. Really pleased it did so well.

 

[JKKS085]

I want to say that 180M is pretty much a lock now unless it really collapses in the coming days/weeks (which I don't think it will given the competition).
Wether or not it can make it to 181M and surpass Thor might still be up in the air but it has a really decent chance.

Also Ant-Man is now the third leggiest Marvel Studio entry. It's sitting at a comfortable 3.04 multiplier right now, surpassing The Avengers' 3.00. It's not gonna catch on Iron Man and GotG on that front but that's already an amazing achievement.

 

[InCali]

I want to say that 180M is pretty much a lock now unless it really collapses in the coming days/weeks (which I don't think it will given the competition).
Wether or not it can make it to 181M and surpass Thor might still be up in the air but it has a really decent chance.

Also Ant-Man is now the third leggiest Marvel Studio entry. It's sitting at a comfortable 3.04 multiplier right now, surpassing The Avengers' 3.00. It's not gonna catch on Iron Man and GotG on that front but that's already an amazing achievement.

Speaking of locks, FF is a lock for 55M DOM and is sitting comfortably above that magical 2X multiplier. Another outstanding achievement......

I see a larger drop the weekend after next when Maze Runner hits the screens, but it does look like 180M is realistic. I didn't think that would happen.

 

[JKKS085]

Speaking of locks, FF is a lock for 55M DOM and is sitting comfortably above that magical 2X multiplier. Another outstanding achievement......

Yep. I suppose the execs at Fox are now popping the champagne they've been saving ever since that amazing opening week end.
I assume Josh Trank is set to get an amazing raise to direct Fant4stic 2, Rise of the head-exploding rocks-moving Doombot.

 

[InCali]

Yep. I suppose the execs at Fox are now popping the champagne they've been saving ever since that amazing opening week end.
I assume Josh Trank is set to get an amazing raise to direct Fant4stic 2, Rise of the head-exploding rocks-moving Doombot.

That's FF2: Days of Monotony. An exciting new look at the upgraded 7:1 audio system on HT's uniform.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

So awesome to see this film chugging along like it is. Really glad this movie made so many people eat crow

 

[kedrell]

Speaking of locks, FF is a lock for 55M DOM and is sitting comfortably above that magical 2X multiplier. Another outstanding achievement......

I see a larger drop the weekend after next when Maze Runner hits the screens, but it does look like 180M is realistic. I didn't think that would happen.

Well the legs a movie has and how impressive or not they are is proportional to what size of movie it is. For a movie like Fant4stic to barely exceed a 2X is truly abysmal. Openers in the $20m range make 3X multipliers all the time, the box office landscape is littered with them and they don't even have to be good to do it usually(eg. Terminator: Genisys with it's 3.3X). But things are much different when a movie opens in the $50-100m range or even more. For them, barely crossing a 2X still isn't good but it's nowhere near as bad as it is for Fant4stic.

 

[InCali]

Well the legs a movie has and how impressive or not they are is proportional to what size of movie it is. For a movie like Fant4stic to barely exceed a 2X is truly abysmal. Openers in the $20m range make 3X multipliers all the time, the box office landscape is littered with them and they don't even have to be good to do it usually(eg. Terminator: Genisys with it's 3.3X). But things are much different when a movie opens in the $50-100m range or even more. For them, barely crossing a 2X still isn't good but it's nowhere near as bad as it is for Fant4stic.

Just in case you didn't know, I was being as sarcastic as I could possibly be.

 

[kedrell]

Oh, ok. Sometimes it's difficult to tell when it's written down instead of spoken.

 

[InCali]

Oh, ok. Sometimes it's difficult to tell when it's written down instead of spoken.

Yeah. Shoulda used the . That's what they are there for.

2X for that movie is really, deservedly bad. Comparing it to Ant-Man is beyond silly.

 

[Themanofbat]

Yeah. Shoulda used the . That's what they are there for.

That's not really representative of sarcasm if you ask me...

To me, it looks more like an "embarrassed" smilie...

Or at the very least, a ******io smilie...

 

[InCali]

That's not really representative of sarcasm if you ask me...

To me, it looks more like an "embarrassed" smilie...

Or at the very least, a ******io smilie...

OOOOOOOkay.......next up on predictions......I predict I use from now on.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

The actuals for the four-day weekend came in a skosh lower than projected, $3,768,953, but that's only about 10 grand off. Total domestic is $174,071,653 and WW is $384,571,653 per boxoffice.com. Looks like you can add about $1.3 million more to the WW number from Mon & Tues in Korea. Chuggin' along!

 

[kedrell]

Since I had predicted $3.75m for the 4-day I'd say this was right down the line accurate.