Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[kedrell]

$228,000 on Friday. Bye, bye TFA. Ant-Man is now at $176,878,846 DOM. Next up is XO:W at $179,883,157. Just $3m to go.

 

[Nokio]

Well I think the movie performed well enough but I'm sure Disney hoped for more as do all studios but I think they were disappointed in the numbers. I know they were disappointed with A0U. I'm sure they thought as did I that it would make more then the first Avengers. Sites were predicting 300 million opening with a possible 2 billion world wide take. I thought it would do better, I mean it did good but I had it at about 1.6-1.7 bil tops and about 650 to 700 mil tops domestically.

 

[chamber-music]

Started from the bottom, now we're here!

 

[Tymminator]

Re:Ant-Man, if they were disappointed in anything, it would have been the domestic opening weekend. There is no way in Hades they would be disappointed in anything after that though as the drops have been very, very good and it is making more than most people guessed it would after that opening weekend.

 

[Vincanws]

Well I think the movie performed well enough but I'm sure Disney hoped for more as do all studios but I think they were disappointed in the numbers.

Ant-Man is looking like finishing between $450-500M worldwide. I think Disney is not disappointed in the number. That said, there will always be someone out there saying it should have made xxx amount. Age of Ultron being a case in point. it made over a billion for heaven's sake.

 

[Solaire]

I said it a while ago, Ant Man will be a disappointment for some no matter how much it makes. 400 million with a possible chance at 500 million is amazing. We are talking about Ant Man here.

 

[regnak]

Well I think the movie performed well enough but I'm sure Disney hoped for more as do all studios but I think they were disappointed in the numbers. I know they were disappointed with A0U. I'm sure they thought as did I that it would make more then the first Avengers. Sites were predicting 300 million opening with a possible 2 billion world wide take. I thought it would do better, I mean it did good but I had it at about 1.6-1.7 bil tops and about 650 to 700 mil tops domestically.

And those sites had no idea what they were talking about. The theaters don't have the capacity for that.

 

[The Whizzer]

So Ant-Man gets a sequel now, right? It's passed Cap 1 and will pass Thor worldwide and they both got sequels. Jah?

I think reaction to his Civil War appearance may be key here. I really don't want a one-and-done situation like with Hulk. I dug Ant-Man more than Avengers 2, honestly.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Opening weekend in Japan seems to be going OK per the guy who tracks the Japanese box office on the kj forum...

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/view...d=56b875940f510b1d9f5907d6fb5efe33&start=6700

If it's on the same course as recent non-Avengers/IM releases that would put it around $2 million OW. The catch is Sunday is a movie discount day there and Monday is a holiday (Respect for the Aged Day) so it could go a bit higher.

 

[kedrell]

And those sites had no idea what they were talking about. The theaters don't have the capacity for that.

True. The highest weekend in North American history, taking into account ALL the movies on every screen in the entire country + Canada only managed $273m(JW's opening weekend this year). Granted not every single seat for every single show was filled for every single movie that was still in release but even if such a thing had occurred, what would that translate to in $? Maybe $300m? $350m? I very much doubt any further than that. So for AoU to make these ridiculous $300m OW projections it would pretty much have to squeeze every other film in release out of theaters for the opening weekend AND sell out ALL of it's showings. Yeah, that's never going to happen for any movie.

 

[kedrell]

Opening weekend in Japan seems to be going OK per the guy who tracks the Japanese box office on the kj forum...

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/view...d=56b875940f510b1d9f5907d6fb5efe33&start=6700

If it's on the same course as recent non-Avengers/IM releases that would put it around $2 million OW. The catch is Sunday is a movie discount day there and Monday is a holiday (Respect for the Aged Day) so it could go a bit higher.

So $6.5m-$9.5m total over there. Ok, slightly less than hoped for but then SK did slightly more than hoped for so my guess of a SK+Japan = $30m +or- $5m looks like it'll come true after all.

 

[Superhero 101]

So Ant-Man gets a sequel now, right? It's passed Cap 1 and will pass Thor worldwide and they both got sequels. Jah?

I am sure he will get a sequel in phase 4

 

[kedrell]

$936k for the weekend. A 43.5% drop. Now DOM total stands at $177,586,846. MR2 definitely hurt it. No nice 25% drops this weekend. TFA made $311,753 on this weekend 4 years ago so AM is staying with it's '3X of whatever TFA did for the rest of it's run' model. TFA made less than $1m for the rest of it's run($848k actually) so extrapolating that gives AM a finale' of $2.5m more to go which would put it at around $180m on the dot. I hope it's fortunes change otherwise it's not going to beat Thor($181m). Oh and it's finally passed the $400m mark WW.

$401,386,846 WW is where it's at now.

 

[InCali]

I am sure he will get a sequel in phase 4

I wouldn't be too sure of that (though I wouldn't complain as AM was one of my top 5 Marvel movies.....or right in that range). We have some new characters being introduced and one of more of them may go through the roof (I'm thinking that Dr. Strange in particular may have some serious potential because of the magic angle), but I could see BP, CM, or Inhumans doing some major damage if the movie is good.

I think part of the equation will be box office, but part of it will be if the character advances or sets the stage for future MCU movies. We'll see.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yup. Deadline has a few more details about the WW numbers:

Japan was a solid start at No. 1 amongst Western movies with $1.7M. That outpaces both the openings of Captain America 2 and Thor 2. International box office is now $223.8M with $117.6M for a worldwide cume of $401.4M. The top markets are the UK ($25.3M), Korea ($18.9M) and Mexico ($15.1M).

 

[JKKS085]

$936k for the weekend. A 43.5% drop. Now DOM total stands at $177,586,846. MR2 definitely hurt it. No nice 25% drops this weekend. TFA made $311,753 on this weekend 4 years ago so AM is staying with it's '3X of whatever TFA did for the rest of it's run' model. TFA made less than $1m for the rest of it's run($848k actually) so extrapolating that gives AM a finale' of $2.5m more to go which would put it at around $180m on the dot. I hope it's fortunes change otherwise it's not going to beat Thor($181m). Oh and it's finally passed the $400m mark WW.

$401,386,846 WW is where it's at now.

CATFA was at $174,792,962 after 66 days of release. It grossed an additional 1.862M to end up with $176,654,505.
"the 3X of whatever CATFA did for the rest of its run" model still puts Ant-Man past 183M.

$8.7M left to beat Kingsman WW, $2.3M to beat X-Men Origins Wolverine dom, $3.5M to beat Thor dom, $48M left to beat Thor WW, $98.7M to reach 500M.

 

[The Whizzer]

I wouldn't be too sure of that (though I wouldn't complain as AM was one of my top 5 Marvel movies.....or right in that range). We have some new characters being introduced and one of more of them may go through the roof (I'm thinking that Dr. Strange in particular may have some serious potential because of the magic angle), but I could see BP, CM, or Inhumans doing some major damage if the movie is good.

I think part of the equation will be box office, but part of it will be if the character advances or sets the stage for future MCU movies. We'll see.

I may have misread, but didn't the audience go nuts over his appearance in the early Civil War footage? I think a big part of Ant-Man's success is that Paul Rudd is just a ridiculously likable actor, and he certainly helped smooth over some of the weaker aspects of the film. I can't imagine how good he'd do in a production that wasn't as bogged down with behind the scenes drama as Ant-Man.

 

[kedrell]

CATFA was at $174,792,962 after 66 days of release. It grossed an additional 1.862M to end up with $176,654,505.
"the 3X of whatever CATFA did for the rest of its run" model still puts Ant-Man past 183M.

$8.7M left to beat Kingsman WW, $2.3M to beat X-Men Origins Wolverine dom, $3.5M to beat Thor dom, $48M left to beat Thor WW, $98.7M to reach 500M.

Yes, you're right. My error. Glad to be wrong in this case. I was on BOM's TFA weekend list page and ended up copying it's 11th weekend's total into my calculator rather than the 10th's weekend total. Guess I should have used a ruler when going across the page to get the corresponding number in the Gross-to-Date column.

 

[eddy]

Well I think the movie performed well enough but I'm sure Disney hoped for more as do all studios but I think they were disappointed in the numbers. I know they were disappointed with A0U. I'm sure they thought as did I that it would make more then the first Avengers. Sites were predicting 300 million opening with a possible 2 billion world wide take. I thought it would do better, I mean it did good but I had it at about 1.6-1.7 bil tops and about 650 to 700 mil tops domestically.

Uh, what site predicted a 300 M OW and what were they smoking?

 

[InCali]

I may have misread, but didn't the audience go nuts over his appearance in the early Civil War footage? I think a big part of Ant-Man's success is that Paul Rudd is just a ridiculously likable actor, and he certainly helped smooth over some of the weaker aspects of the film. I can't imagine how good he'd do in a production that wasn't as bogged down with behind the scenes drama as Ant-Man.

He certainly is that and I'll have no issue if there's a sequel. I just think there's no way for those of us who aren't in the know to figure this stuff out. Maybe those in the know don't know......

"Impossible to see the future is".

Cumberbatch is a very, very fine actor as is Chadwick. We'll see......

EDIT: Mainly I want to see best actress in the Emmys. I'm all in on Tatiana.

 

[chamber-music]

Yup. Deadline has a few more details about the WW numbers:

Japan was a solid start at No. 1 amongst Western movies with $1.7M. That outpaces both the openings of Captain America 2 and Thor 2. International box office is now $223.8M with $117.6M for a worldwide cume of $401.4M. The top markets are the UK ($25.3M), Korea ($18.9M) and Mexico ($15.1M).

Not surprised Ant-Man did well in the UK. Rudd and Douglas did a lot of press in the UK an people over here a open minded to wacky concepts usually.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$922,985 officially for the weekend domestically, putting it at $177,573,831 DOM and $401,373,831 WW.

Korea still chugging along, adding $105k Monday. In Japan, the two-day weekend estimate is $1.63 million (in line with the $1.7 million reported earlier), and the 3-day holiday weekend estimate is $2.59 million.

 

[Tymminator]

Ant-man is going to go down to 477 screens, it's losing like 500.

 

[kedrell]

Yet it's Wednesday actually went up from Tuesday and that usually doesn't happen. Maybe dollar theaters are here at least for AM.

 

[Docker2.0]

Think it will make $180M DOM?