Ant-Man Box Office Predictions - Part 1

[Tymminator]

Call me crazy, but I think we will hear about a sequel sooner than we would have thought.

I guess I wasn't so crazy.

 

[Docker2.0]

I guess I wasn't so crazy.

Oh, you are crazy! But you were just right this time.

 

[Tymminator]

Oh, you are crazy! But you were just right this time.

For the record I also guessed the title "Ant-man and the Wasp" as well, but can't remember the thread. However I think a few other others around here also guessed it as well.

 

[smashmode]

With the new buzz about a sequel, I hope it really boosts China $$ and dollar theater numbers.

 

[Ant]

With the new buzz about a sequel, I hope it really boosts China $$ and dollar theater numbers.

Was thinking the same thing!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Still scraping up a few bucks here and there. Per boxoffice.com the domestic total has inched up to $178,636,091. It should have passed $9 million in Japan last weekend, and the WW figure is $410,636,091 with China up this weekend.

 

[Ant]

I can't find Ant-Man China box office estimates anywhere.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Not sure there are any yet. The poster over at the box office theory forums who tracks China says presales so far are "good but not great" FWIW. We should get a better idea as the 16th approaches.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Same source puts Ant-Man's midnight showings in China at ￥4.5 million. GotG's were ￥2.8 million, so that seems like a good omen.

ETA: some twitter confirmation:

China Box Office ‏@ChinaBoxOffice 5h5 hours ago
#ChinaBoxOffice ANTMAN earned est. $0.71M from Thursday midnight screenings, 60% more than GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

How much did Guardians make in China total?

 

[Comic Book Guy]

$96m

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Lol, I doubt Ant-Man makes over 96 m in China.

Anything over 45 m is a success at this point.

 

[Comic Book Guy]

why do you doubt it?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Most superhero movie come nowhere close to 100 m in China. Especially at this time of year.

 

[Comic Book Guy]

Marvel's brand is huge over there. Ant-Man can certainly do those numbers because it has the Marvel brand backing it.

 

[Tymminator]

If Ant-man follows this trend and doesn't collapse, it's going to beat 96M.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Ant-Man has equaled or exceeded Guardians in every Asian market, so China coming in at half of GotG in China would be really strange. That said it's a late release and the Chinese have stacked western film openings over the next several weeks so who knows what kind of legs it gets. We shall see.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Hey, I'd love to be wrong.

500 m would be beautiful.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

@ChinaBoxOffice: #ChinaBoxOffice ANT-MAN opens to est. $12.9M, Marvel's 3rd biggest opening day behind Iron Man 3 and Ultron. http://t.co/Yg8L9DIfdK

 

[chamber-music]

China numbers are looking good

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Going into the weekend, the MCU's WW total was $8,973.6 billion. Ant-Man 's performance this weekend should push it over the $9 billion mark.

 

[Sphene]

Yeah China numbers seems to be good (apparently it's poised to be the 3rd highest MCU opening in China).
Should be able to get 100 mil, as long as the other foreign films opening soon (Pan, Everest, Hotel Transylvania don't affect it too much

 

[JtheDreamer]

Going into the weekend, the MCU's WW total was $8,973.6 billion. Ant-Man 's performance this weekend should push it over the $9 billion mark.

Just out of curiosity - what's the total production budget of all of the MCU movies so far?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

The average Marvel film cost around 150 m.

Add another 50 or 75 for marketing.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Just out of curiosity - what's the total production budget of all of the MCU movies so far?

If my math is right (always suspect) per reports it would be around $2.08 billion.