Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[TalismanRing]

CW is at $175-185m dependingon the trade publication (Variety, HR, Wrap) with many saying $200m in possible, and even the $175m was $175+.

Variety three weeks had analysts pegging AOU at $190-200m with some saying it could reach $200m+

The picture formally went on tracking Thursday, with services predicting a debut of between $190 million to $200 million, roughly $70 million more than the first film was predicted to make when it first went on tracking. Other analysts, such as BoxOffice.com, are projecting the film will make more than $210 million in its inaugural weekend.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Most of the higher end predictions tend to come from rival studios.

Studios like to over-hype the expected grosses for rival films just so it increases the chance of the final total being seen as "disappointing".

I trust the 175-185 figure over the 200+ predictions.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Most of the higher end predictions tend to come from rival studios.

Studios like to over-hype the expected grosses for rival films just so it increases the chance of the final total being seen as "disappointing".

I trust the 175-185 figure over the 200+ predictions.

It's kind of funny the games that get played. The rivals inflate estimations so it looks like the movie under-performed while the studio lowballs it so they can claim a "surprise" hit. The actual tracking figures ($175-185M) are better since they're not as biased, but predicting $150M+ openings remains a crapshoot.

 

[spiderman2]

I don't think I can even trust tracking any more. I think it is getting to were more and more movies end up making more or less then people think. Like just between last year and this year so far we have had Jurassic world, star wars, Jungle book, deadpool, fast and fearous 7 all make way more then people thought it would.

 

[JOE]

Let's hope this movie joins your list lol.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I don't think I can even trust tracking any more. I think it is getting to were more and more movies end up making more or less then people think. Like just between last year and this year so far we have had Jurassic world, star wars, Jungle book, deadpool, fast and fearous 7 all make way more then people thought it would.

And it's not just record-breaking tentpoles that have been off in their tracking. UNCLE, FFINO, and Terminator 5 all opened well below initial tracking while Compton and Trainwreck crushed their expected numbers.

Normally tracking misses for the big opening weekends are attributed to the difficulty of predicting statistical outliers; basically these movies break their metrics. However, it seems to me that the instant WOM that comes from social media has a huge effect on OW, as negative or positive buzz can radically alter the internal multiplier (just look at BvS).

Tracking isn't going away anytime soon as its main purpose isn't to predict an OW number but rather identify strengths and weaknesses in the studio's marking plan. However, take any topline tracking number with a shaker of salt given the recent misses.

 

[TalismanRing]

If anyone follows or plays HSX

The opening w/e warrant for BvS was set at $160m. CW is set at $180m

 

[JOE]

If anyone follows or plays HSX

The opening w/e warrant for BvS was set at $160m. CW is set at $180m

The OW will help, but the legs is what's going to make this movie's box office. If it opens at 180M I'd love to see what it's second weekend looks like.

 

[Kanon]

If anyone follows or plays HSX

The opening w/e warrant for BvS was set at $160m. CW is set at $180m

I havent played in a long time, but I love HSX. I think I'll put some hollywood cash on that one, I'm really feeling record breaking numbers here (I would be ok with 180M, is a big jump for a Cap movie, but it has a good chance of Avengers-like numbers too)

 

[TalismanRing]

Keep in mind on line ticket sales increase every year. AOU had 4 times as many pre-sales as Avengers and also more than all previous films combined.

"...Captain America: Civil War has topped the charts regarding anticipated action movies. The film is currently outselling all previous Marvel Cinematic Universe movies on Fandango, including the first two The Avengers movies and Captain America: The Winter Soldier at the same point in the sales cycle." -Forbes, Scott Mendelson

http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...top-fandangos-summer-movie-poll/#7cafb8b56472

 

[KangConquers]

Keep in mind on line ticket sales increase every year. AOU had 4 times as many pre-sales as Avengers and also more than all previous films combined.


http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...top-fandangos-summer-movie-poll/#7cafb8b56472

Yeah, this is just front loading though, as you stated.

Look at Disney's slate this year. a Movie every three weeks from Junglebook > Civil War > Alice> Finding Dory. Studios are adjusting to front-loading, and planning their schedules around massive opens and short legs.

 

[Johnglen]

200 million ow is in the bag and so is 500 million domestic . 1.5 billion WW is close too .

 

[samsnee]

200 million ow is in the bag and so is 500 million domestic . 1.5 billion WW is close too .

Based on what?

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Based on what?

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that is probably his predictions that he wished to post in the prediction thread.

 

[grieven]

For what it's worth:

https://***********/ERCboxoffice/status/723183500791177216

According to Fandango, CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR is outselling all previous Marvel movies in terms of advance ticket sales.

 

[JOE]

I wouldn't say 200M OW is in the bag, 180M definitely is though.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Sounds about right

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Way more positive buzz than AOU and better pre-sales.

No way this makes "only" 190 m OW.

 

[JOE]

Such an exciting time for these boards. The build up to the DOM OW. It has a chance to break SO many CBM records.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Way more positive buzz than AOU and better pre-sales.

No way this makes "only" 190 m OW.

To be fair, pre-sales seem to increase for each big MCU release just because online sales are growing popularity (far outstripping growth in box office). The early buzz does seem pretty positive and since they've already lifted the review embargo, I doubt the critical opinion is going to shift dramatically. CW has been pulling 30K+ tweets per day and the positive:negative ratio is very strong.

 

[TalismanRing]

HSX just upped the OW warrant to $185m

 

[daddydivine]

I want to revise my prediction to "All da money"

 

[samsnee]

I'm gonna go out on a limb here and guess that is probably his predictions that he wished to post in the prediction thread.

I wasn't trying to be snarky. But there just isn't enough data yet to say anything is "in the bag", especially a $200M opening. Is it very likely based on reviews? Sure, but so was BvS making a billion 2 months ago.

 

[Iceman]

No, it's gonna make a lot more than that! t:

I want to revise my prediction to "All da money"

 

[Iceman]

They must have been reading the spoiler thread lol.

HSX just upped the OW warrant to $185m