Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[third3ye]

http://www.forbes.com/sites/markhug...ome-marvels-biggest-blockbuster/#5fbb48b044fa

Mark Hughes drinking the Marvel koolaid baby. I never would've thought this film could approach $2b but he makes valid points in that article, though realistically I think this could equal the first Avengers $1.5b, maybe edge it slightly on the high side. Wouldn't mind if I'm wrong though and this hits $2b t:

 

[Gerontophobe]

Mark Hughes drinking the Marvel koolaid baby. I never would've thought this film could approach $2b but he makes valid points in that article, though realistically I think this could equal the first Avengers $1.5b, maybe edge it slightly on the high side. Wouldn't mind if I'm wrong though and this hits $2b t:

He's a total fanboy though; I'm pretty sure he predicted (like a lot of people) that BvS would kill (and he loved that movie). I'm taking it with more than a few grains of salt as I find his logic is usually strained. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see CW blow past The Avengers worldwide.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

1.4b in the end. Methinks.

 

[third3ye]

He's a total fanboy though; I'm pretty sure he predicted (like a lot of people) that BvS would kill (and he loved that movie). I'm taking it with more than a few grains of salt as I find his logic is usually strained. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see CW blow past The Avengers worldwide.

Despite his glowing review of BvS, he's had some good articles in the past, so I can sorta forgive him for that Whether CW ends up beating TA or not, I can totally see this film hitting $900m WWBO and surpassing BvS final cume after weekend of May 14-15. While Hughes is downplaying the competition starting May 27, I'm inclined to believe X-Men and possibly Alice will put a large dent on whatever legs CW has at that point.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Anyone have a link to the S.Korea BO news?

If you want to keep tabs on your own:

http://www.koreanfilm.or.kr/jsp/news/boxOffice_Daily.jsp?mode=BOXOFFICE_DAILY

 

[WilliamK99]

It is amazing to me how hyped people are to see this movie, IMO 200 million , opening weekend is a lock... The demand is there and Marvel's marketing has been amazing....

 

[InCali]

It is amazing to me how hyped people are to see this movie, IMO 200 million , opening weekend is a lock... The demand is there and Marvel's marketing has been amazing....

It just might get there. I know I'm totally geeked out about it. I think they're really selling it as an Avengers movie without being explicit about it and think that's a smart move.

 

[Silver Surfer]

2 billion is not happening, it's not. That's Star Wars level, and no MCU movie is at that level, it's the closest thing to that, but not close enough. Infinity War 2 might have a shot if IW 1 is amazing and the marketing is overwhelming.

 

[InCali]

2 billion is not happening, it's not. That's Star Wars level, and no MCU movie is at that level, it's the closest thing to that, but not close enough. Infinity War 2 might have a shot if IW 1 is amazing and the marketing is overwhelming.

That's prolly right. I was saying the other day that I thought this would do better than AoU DOM and WW and "could" beat TA and maybe JW WW (DOM seems less likely, but we don't know how Apocalypse will be received and that'll play a factor). If IW1 totally shreds, who the bad place knows what happens next??

 

[take3]

Box Office: 'Captain America: Civil War' Opens to Huge $14.9M Overseas on Wednesday

Disney and Marvel Studios' Captain America: Civil War opened a stellar $14.9 million Wednesday as it rolled out in 15 foreign markets, placing No. 1 everywhere and almost matching Avengers: Age of Ultron.

 

[Spiderdevil]

We should be realistic, it's not doing Avengers Numbers, AoU numbers are the roof for this, it will probably end up slightly higher than IM3 numbers, not just 2B even 1.6B is out of the question

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Great start. Sounds like $1 billion OS alone is definitely in play. It just needs a bit better legs than AoU, which isn't asking a lot.

 

[Spiderdevil]

The movie is rolling out in roughly 63 percent of the foreign marketplace this weekend. In South Korea ($4.3 million), the Philippines ($1.5 million) and Hong Kong ($1.1 million), Civil War scored the No. 3 opening of all time. And in France, it nabbed the top opening day of 2016 so far with $2.4 million.

This is good but not earthshatering good, I stand by my 1.3B WW prediction

 

[Spiderdevil]

Great start. Sounds like $1 billion OS alone is definitely in play. It just needs a bit better legs than AoU, which isn't asking a lot.

Hmmm, difficult to say, AoU did 940M something OS, as of on CW has been 'Almost matching' AoU in the 15 markets, meaning it is a little bit behind, so like you said, it would need a lot better legs to exceed 1B OS

 

[Gerontophobe]

We should be realistic, it's not doing Avengers Numbers, AoU numbers are the roof for this, it will probably end up slightly higher than IM3 numbers, not just 2B even 1.6B is out of the question

I think Avengers numbers are totally possible. Right now CW is looking to finish this weekend around $230M (and it could go as high as $250M) without opening in some major territories (most notably China). At that point, IM3 or AoU legs would send CW past $1B OS alone (easily if China blows up). A $200M+ debut in the US looks possible and legs should be strong given the excellent reviews so far. I find your suggestion that $1.6B is impossible to be intellectually dishonest; it certainly has a chance although it is too soon to say if it is likely or not.

 

[third3ye]

It's only the first OS day so can't really say anything for sure, but this confirms our belief that CW will play closer to an Avengers title than a Cap title.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Hmmm, difficult to say, AoU did 940M something OS, as of on CW has been 'Almost matching' AoU in the 15 markets, meaning it is a little bit behind, so like you said, it would need a lot better legs to exceed 1B OS

The comparisons aren't exactly apples-to-apples as the opening day differs in some markets (like in Korea, a Wednesday versus a Thursday). Also, this is just 15 markets and other than Korea none are major markets. In other markets it is looking to do better than AoU so I think it will end up higher for the weekend in the comparable territories. A modest 6% increase over AoU's overseas take would put it past $1B (certainly not "a lot better").

 

[SomeOldGuy]

We should be realistic, it's not doing Avengers Numbers, AoU numbers are the roof for this, it will probably end up slightly higher than IM3 numbers, not just 2B even 1.6B is out of the question

I hear you, I've been trying to tamp down my expectations. Heck, I only predicted it would it would do 850-925.

One encouraging report is that China presales are strong a week out from the opening. That's become unusual since theaters there have made a habit out of offering big discounts at the last minute, so they've trained audience not to buy early. This time, they are.

But yeah,we still need more data. I like the trend though.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Fun fact: after one weekday in 15 markets it's already No. 30 for the year on the OS chart. It will likely leap into the top 10 by Sunday.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/weekend/yearly/

 

[Spiderdevil]

I think Avengers numbers are totally possible. Right now CW is looking to finish this weekend around $230M (and it could go as high as $250M) without opening in some major territories (most notably China). At that point, IM3 or AoU legs would send CW past $1B OS alone (easily if China blows up). A $200M+ debut in the US looks possible and legs should be strong given the excellent reviews so far. I find your suggestion that $1.6B is impossible to be intellectually dishonest; it certainly has a chance although it is too soon to say if it is likely or not.

Well, I think of the movies which managed close to that amount, and they all have an X-factor which drove the hype, Avengers (First Marvel ensemble, 4 years built up hype) Jurrasic World (The return of the franchise, nostalgia) Furious 7 (Death of Paul Walkner, sympathy and interest, his final movie), Avatar ( Great 3D, Cameron), TFA (Return of the saga)

I don't see an X-factor with CW, IM3 had similar hype post-Avengers and it ended up with 1.3B, so this will end up close to that imo, would love to be proven wrong

 

[Iceman]

Well, I think of the movies which managed close to that amount, and they all have an X-factor which drove the hype, Avengers (First Marvel ensemble, 4 years built up hype) Jurrasic World (The return of the franchise, nostalgia) Furious 7 (Death of Paul Walkner, sympathy and interest, his final movie), Avatar ( Great 3D, Cameron), TFA (Return of the saga)

I don't see an X-factor with CW, IM3 had similar hype post-Avengers and it ended up with 1.3B, so this will end up close to that imo, would love to be proven wrong

AoU didn't have an X-factor and had a much less enthusiastic reception than Avengers and still did $1.4B. CW is a virtual Avengers film with a much better reception so hopefully it will be able to deliver numbers like an Avengers film. I don't know if you would consider the cameos from Black Panther and Spidey to be a minor X-factor also (none of the characters added in AoU are geting their own films for eg).

 

[JB33]

Well, I think of the movies which managed close to that amount, and they all have an X-factor which drove the hype, Avengers (First Marvel ensemble, 4 years built up hype) Jurrasic World (The return of the franchise, nostalgia) Furious 7 (Death of Paul Walkner, sympathy and interest, his final movie), Avatar ( Great 3D, Cameron), TFA (Return of the saga)

I don't see an X-factor with CW, IM3 had similar hype post-Avengers and it ended up with 1.3B, so this will end up close to that imo, would love to be proven wrong

I agree with this post 100%. Nothing more to add.

Now, I have obviously elevated my stance from "not a lock for $1B" to "pretty much a lock" but that's about it. I basically see this movie as being a bigger and better Iron Man 3, with Avengers: Age of Ultron being the ceiling.

 

[TalismanRing]

It's going to need to sell more tickets O/S to match AOU because currencies have severely dropped again in Latin America and are down a bit in S.K. and China - its two biggest markets. The Euro is a bit stronger which helps but doesn't offset what's happening in Mexico, Argentina, Brazil & Venezuela.

 

[third3ye]

My take is that the x-factor for CW is the inclusion of Spidey in the MCU and the hero v hero conflict that fans actually care about because these are characters they've watched for several movies. On paper it doesn't seem stronger than what the first Avengers had going for it (simply because that was unprecedented at the time), but with a critically strong film like CW, maybe that's all it takes to push it over the top of the MCU in terms of box office.

 

[Gerontophobe]

It's going to need to sell more tickets O/S to match AOU because currencies have severely dropped again in Latin America and are down a bit in S.K. and China - its two biggest markets. The Euro is a bit stronger which helps but doesn't offset what's happening in Mexico, Argentina, Brazil & Venezuela.

The dollar isn't that much stronger than a year ago against most of those currencies (although Brazil and Russia are tanking), so the increase in ticket sales needed is fairly small. Compared to The Avengers and Iron Man 3 though, it would need to sell way more tickets internationally. Basically, $1B OS comes down to how it plays in China. If it does $200M+, I think the chances are very good.

As for the need for an "X factor," I don't buy it. AoU would have topped Avengers had it been a bit better movie (and thus better legs). By most early accounts, CW manages to top every MCU film so I think that's all it needs. International opinions of films vary greatly by market (like Brazil loving BvS) so maybe other nationalities won't like it as much but I'm optimistic.

By the way, I'm not totally delusional. My initial prediction (3 weeks ago) was for $1.1B worldwide (and $1.3B for BvS ). The reviews, tracking, and early box office just leave me positive about its chances.