Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[TalismanRing]

http://www.thewrap.com/captain-america-civil-war-projection/

Three weeks in advance of its release, early tracking forecasts a $175 million to $185 million opening, with analysts are saying $185 million is more likely. And it’s highly possible that the film will cross the $200 million threshold.

 

[KBX]

5 Seconds

Thats all the public has seen of Spiderman.

5 Seconds

And how much more this movie is going to make because of it is ridiculous

 

[TalismanRing]

5 Seconds

Thats all the public has seen of Spiderman.

5 Seconds

And how much more this movie is going to make because of it is ridiculous

The movie has RDJ's Iron Man. Iron Man >>>> Spider-Man

Heck as of their last films, Captain America > Spider-Man

 

[JOE]

The Winter Soldier was critically acclaimed and that didn't even make 800m. Don't be fooled, Spidey is a HUGE factor in this.

 

[Gerontophobe]

The movie has RDJ's Iron Man. Iron Man >>>> Spider-Man

Heck as of their last films, Captain America > Spider-Man

The box office for past individual films isn't the best way to judge character drawing power or popularity. In the end, the quality of the movie overrides the effects of each individual character. I don't think many would argue that Deadpool is more popular than Batman and yet DP is going to easily outgross BvS (at least domestically).

Spider-Man is a huge draw and will have an impact on the box office. Its difficult to measure popularity but an easy method is using Google search as an indicator of public interest. By this metric, SM remains about 3X as important as IM in popular culture and about 4X CA. Obviously IM and CA are the biggest draws for Civil War since they're the stars but I feel SM will have a disproportionately large impact relative to screen time and plot importance.

 

[jokesonm3]

Will it beat the Friday opening day of BvS and Jurassic World of $81.5M?

 

[Joeyjojo72]

The movie has RDJ's Iron Man. Iron Man >>>> Spider-Man

Heck as of their last films, Captain America > Spider-Man

Yeah that's too simplistic. And no one is saying that cap and IM aren't the main draws here. But Spidey adds significant value.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

This thing is going to be big. I can't wait to see what kind of legs it ends up having, especially since the Russos have gone on record saying this is a bit darker than the usual Marvel fair.

 

[SyntaxError]

Spider-Man isn't the factor. Iron-Man is. And the Avengers brand.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Just ran across a graphic on the bot boards saying that Thursday night preview sales are just under $850k so far and total presales over $2 million so far. If so not too bad for a film that doesn't open for a couple more weeks!

 

[Bruce Malone]

The Winter Soldier was critically acclaimed and that didn't even make 800m. Don't be fooled, Spidey is a HUGE factor in this.

The last Iron Man solo film did 1.2 billion. I think RDJ and Iron Man getting essentially equal top billing is the biggest factor.

 

[KangConquers]

The last Iron Man solo film did 1.2 billion. I think RDJ and Iron Man getting essentially equal top billing is the biggest factor.

If Spider-Man is doing anything, it's making up for the loss of the rest of the big 4.

Cap + IM + Spidey (</=/>) Cap + IM + Thor + Hulk??

 

[Sevprince]

There is more than one factor here:
1. Is Cap 3 movie with the same talent coming back in front and behind the camera. Cap 2 was loved by almost everyone so naturally its sequel is going to go up.
2. It has the Avengers in it
3 It has Spiderman in it
4 It's getting good reviews

 

[parkerpete]

There is more than one factor here:
1. Is Cap 3 movie with the same talent coming back in front and behind the camera. Cap 2 was loved by almost everyone so naturally its sequel is going to go up.
2. It has the Avengers in it
3 It has Spiderman in it
4 It's getting good reviews

2. Specifically RDJ's Iron Man, which is a HUGE draw for general and overseas audiences.

And 4. Which... great googly-moogly, reading some of these reviews, if they are at all accurate should translate to tremendous legs. If it's as good as Drew McWeeney and Mr. Beaks say it is, I'll be seeing this no less than 3 times in the theater.

This movie could really be a monster on par with Avengers 1.

 

[Legendver2]

I'd say it might even beat Avengers 1 in the BO.

 

[starkresilient]

Damn those predictions going up and up.
With Iron Man, Spidey and Black Panther I think IM3 number's should be the floor for this.

 

[Kanon]

There is more than one factor here:
1. Is Cap 3 movie with the same talent coming back in front and behind the camera. Cap 2 was loved by almost everyone so naturally its sequel is going to go up.
2. It has the Avengers in it
3 It has Spiderman in it
4 It's getting good reviews

I think we have a perfect storm situation here

 

[Ironfan72]

I think as has been said, there are a lot of factors, we are seeing most of the Avengers, Robert Downey Jr. is a big draw, Spider-man plays a big role and I think Black Panthers introduction has people interested, plus the overwhelming good reviews.

 

[JOE]

The last Iron Man solo film did 1.2 billion. I think RDJ and Iron Man getting essentially equal top billing is the biggest factor.

It was also coming off the Avengers high. He's definitely bringing in more money than Cap, but Spidey isn't a non-factor.

 

[TalismanRing]

It was also coming off the Avengers high. He's definitely bringing in more money than Cap, but Spidey isn't a non-factor.

Thor didn't benefit that much from that high and Cap got a bigger bump than Thor, due a lot to the quality of the movie, but it still didn't make $800m+ O/S like IM3. Iron Man was the most popular character going into to The Avengers and he became even more popular coming out.

Spidey isn't a non factor but he's not near the factor Iron Man is or even at this stage Cap is in terms of on screen popularity. He's not the character coming off three movies that made $1.5b, $1.2b & $1.4b.

 

[JOE]

Thor didn't benefit that much from that high and Cap got a bigger bump than Thor, due a lot to the quality of the movie, but it still didn't make $800m+ O/S like IM3. Iron Man was the most popular character going into to The Avengers and he became even more popular coming out.

Spidey isn't a non factor but he's not near the factor Iron Man is or even at this stage Cap is in terms of on screen popularity. He's not the character coming off three movies that made $1.5b, $1.2b & $1.4b.

I fully understand that. RDJ averages 1.069B per film in the MCU, and that's with his first 2 films only bringing in 1.2B... What I'm saying is that with Spidey and Black Panther this movie has the potential to pass the first Avengers WW. AoU had RDJ and still couldn't do that. There's a new wow factor to the MCU which will DEFINITELY boost the WW total. AoU introduced SW and QS, but that movie had nothing comparable to what Civil War is bringing to the table. With the reviews I'm reading and the box office numbers they're predicting... This movie may take the crown from the Avengers for biggest CBM of all time.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Thor didn't benefit that much from that high and Cap got a bigger bump than Thor, due a lot to the quality of the movie, but it still didn't make $800m+ O/S like IM3. Iron Man was the most popular character going into to The Avengers and he became even more popular coming out.

Spidey isn't a non factor but he's not near the factor Iron Man is or even at this stage Cap is in terms of on screen popularity. He's not the character coming off three movies that made $1.5b, $1.2b & $1.4b.

To be fair, two of those were due to cross-pollination of superheros and IM3 had a lot of good will because it immediately followed The Avengers. Also, once adjusting for inflation each of the Raimi movies made more domestically than any of the IM trilogy. Overall, SM movies have grossed almost $4B (not adjusting for inflation) while IM has grossed $2.4B from solo picks. Those averages are almost identical (within 2%). Only Batman (with 8 movies) has made more than Spider-Man at the box office.

Once again, obviously SM isn't the primary draw as he's not a lead character but, compared to his screen time and plot importance, he's going to have an outsized effect on CW's box office.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Just ran across a graphic on the bot boards saying that Thursday night preview sales are just under $850k so far and total presales over $2 million so far. If so not too bad for a film that doesn't open for a couple more weeks!

We are currently 17 days away from release. At 11 days before release, BvS had $20-25M in presales so if those numbers are accurate, CW is almost certainly not going to hit BvS numbers in presales; note that a large chunk of presale tickets is sold within the first 24 hours of going on sale (fanboys). However, BvS was unusual as generally presales aren’t very large, even for blockbusters; TDKR was also really high as well (3rd all-time with $25M) so maybe it’s just a Batman thing. Most Marvel movies, even The Avengers and AoU, haven’t gone crazy in presales. Also, as BvS so wonderfully illustrates, record presales do not directly correlate to OW.

 

[TalismanRing]

Yes, and in 1979 Superman made the equivalent of $1.1b ww. Times change.

Raimi's last Spider-Man film was 9 years ago and didn't leave a good taste. Over those 9 years he's been greatly surpassed in popularity at the box office. From the 1st to the 5th SM, he lost about 2/3rds of his US admissions, he was on a downward trend and the next SM movie might have made about $150m domestic.

If Spider-Man was able to still bring in crowds as big as IM on his own or even Captain America then Sony wouldn't have done this deal to boost his popularity. A great part of the appeal for this later screen iteration is seeing him with the Avengers. And the hoping this will lead to a renewed interest in his rebooted solo films.

Again, I'm not saying his appearance won't boost the box office but as soon as Iron Man was announced to be in this films predictions for Cap 3 WW gross went from around $850-900m to $1.2--1.3b+ and that was before we knew about BP, BW, SW, Vision etc joining as well.

 

[TalismanRing]

We are currently 17 days away from release. At 11 days before release, BvS had $20-25M in presales so if those numbers are accurate, CW is almost certainly not going to hit BvS numbers in presales; note that a large chunk of presale tickets is sold within the first 24 hours of going on sale (fanboys). However, BvS was unusual as generally presales aren’t very large, even for blockbusters; TDKR was also really high as well (3rd all-time with $25M) so maybe it’s just a Batman thing. Most Marvel movies, even The Avengers and AoU, haven’t gone crazy in presales. Also, as BvS so wonderfully illustrates, record presales do not directly correlate to OW.

Those numbers aren't for total pre-sales in the U.S.

According to the same source, BvS had a total of $2.8m pre-sale (not just Thur) from the AMC theater chain as of the Monday before release. Deadpool was at $1.4m the Mon before it's release. CW is at $2m - three weeks out.