Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread

[Gerontophobe]

Those numbers aren't for total pre-sales in the U.S.

According to the same source, BvS had a total of $2.8m pre-sale (not just Thur) from the AMC theater chain as of the Monday before release. Deadpool was at $1.4m the Mon before it's release. CW is at $2m - three weeks out.

Well that is certainly better for CW, although presales from a single chain aren't terribly helpful for predictions, especially since as mentioned the largest opening weekends ever didn't have massive presales (except for TFA) and most presales are shortly after tickets go on sale and the week leading up to release. If it does end up at or above $20-25M in presales, that would be tremendous and suggest an opening day of $80M+ (assuming most of those are for Thursday/Friday).

 

[JOE]

The only thing stopping this movie from reaching 1B is if the 1080p version leaks online. There's no other possible scenario where this movie doesn't cross 1B.

 

[Mysteryman]

Don't give anybody any ideas.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Those numbers aren't for total pre-sales in the U.S.

According to the same source, BvS had a total of $2.8m pre-sale (not just Thur) from the AMC theater chain as of the Monday before release. Deadpool was at $1.4m the Mon before it's release. CW is at $2m - three weeks out.

Yeah, it wasn't clear where they were from, thanks for the clarification.

 

[KangConquers]

The only thing stopping this movie from reaching 1B is if the 1080p version leaks online. There's no other possible scenario where this movie doesn't cross 1B.

I think even then it plows past 1 B. If this movie is opening as big as people are saying, on the reviews it's getting, $1.2 B becomes the floor.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I think even then it plows past 1 B. If this movie is opening as big as people are saying, on the reviews it's getting, $1.2 B becomes the floor.

Well, if it opens to $150M domestically then the floor is something like $325M while good legs would see $400M. If OW is $200M, then the floor is probably $450M while good legs would be $500M.

Overseas its release is staggered, but for individual markets if it opens to >$15M in France, Australia, Mexico, Russia, and Korea, >$20M in UK, and >$50M in China then the international floor is probably $600M while good legs or higher openings could see totals in the $900M-$1B range.

 

[KangConquers]

Well, if it opens to $150M domestically then the floor is something like $325M while good legs would see $400M. If OW is $200M, then the floor is probably $450M while good legs would be $500M.

Overseas its release is staggered, but for individual markets if it opens to >$15M in France, Australia, Mexico, Russia, and Korea, >$20M in UK, and >$50M in China then the international floor is probably $600M while good legs or higher openings could see totals in the $900M-$1B range.

Where are you getting $150 from? Tracking is $175 M +

 

[Gerontophobe]

Where are you getting $150 from? Tracking is $175 M +

I was trying to set some best and worst case scenarios for OW (although my "best" of $200M may prove too low) and then speculate on "floors" and "ceilings". I think the lowest OW could fall is $150M but that would probably require an influx of negative WOM (highly unlikely given the early reviews) or a national tragedy à la TDKR's shooting (even more unlikely). For the record, I predicted $185M OW a few weeks ago and now I think it will probably beat that.

 

[KangConquers]

I was trying to set some best and worst case scenarios for OW (although my "best" of $200M may prove too low) and then speculate on "floors" and "ceilings". I think the lowest OW could fall is $150M but that would probably require an influx of negative WOM (highly unlikely given the early reviews) or a national tragedy à la TDKR's shooting (even more unlikely). For the record, I predicted $185M OW a few weeks ago and now I think it will probably beat that.

gotcha. I could see $1 B being worst case, and $1.5 B being the best.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

1 billion WW?

1 billion OS is more likely than 1 billion WW.

 

[Comic Book Guy]

I think the movie opens north of $200m and grosses at least $1.3b.

 

[Spiderdevil]

My prediction- Lower range 1.1B
Higher range 1.5B
Average - 1.3B

About IM3's gross, which is quite good

 

[Spiderdevil]

5 Seconds

Thats all the public has seen of Spiderman.

5 Seconds

And how much more this movie is going to make because of it is ridiculous

IMO they should be promoting him more, he should be plastered all over TV Spots for these tail end days, I saw the 'Roll call' TV Spot and they don't mention him!

I am not asking them to show more scenes, just use the 'Hey Everyone' scene, but make everyone aware that he is in there

 

[Spiderdevil]

Yes, and in 1979 Superman made the equivalent of $1.1b ww. Times change.

Raimi's last Spider-Man film was 9 years ago and didn't leave a good taste. Over those 9 years he's been greatly surpassed in popularity at the box office. From the 1st to the 5th SM, he lost about 2/3rds of his US admissions, he was on a downward trend and the next SM movie might have made about $150m domestic.

If Spider-Man was able to still bring in crowds as big as IM on his own or even Captain America then Sony wouldn't have done this deal to boost his popularity. A great part of the appeal for this later screen iteration is seeing him with the Avengers. And the hoping this will lead to a renewed interest in his rebooted solo films.

Again, I'm not saying his appearance won't boost the box office but as soon as Iron Man was announced to be in this films predictions for Cap 3 WW gross went from around $850-900m to $1.2--1.3b+ and that was before we knew about BP, BW, SW, Vision etc joining as well.

Spider-man has lost a lot of popularity in the domestic territory but he is still a huge draw overseas, even more than Avengers, Batman in some countries

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Latest prediction:

615 m DOM
1 billion OS

1.615 m WW

I think this will have an opening over 200 m and some of the best legs of any Marvel movie .

Repeat viewings will be through the roof.


Some movies call for conservative predictions. Other movies, like this and SW7, do not.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Latest prediction:

615 m DOM
1 billion OS

1.615 m WW

I think this will have an opening over 200 m and some of the best legs of any Marvel movie .

Repeat viewings will be through the roof.


Some movies call for conservative predictions. Other movies, like this and SW7, do not.

That's a pretty optimistic prediction and I'm a little skeptical it can hit $1B overseas. No comic book movie has hit that milestone (and only 5 movies ever, although 3 of those were last year). A strong dollar means each ticket sold overseas is worth less than it was just a few years ago. That means that CW would need to sell something like 50% more tickets than IM3 to hit $1B OS even though IM3 pulled $800M internationally.

To clarify, I'm not saying it can't hit $1B OS as AoU would have if not for international deflation (or if it had been a better movie). I remain somewhat skeptical that a Captain America sequel can be a top 5 movie of all time, even though I'm bullish on its overall outlook.

 

[KangConquers]

That's a pretty optimistic prediction and I'm a little skeptical it can hit $1B overseas. No comic book movie has hit that milestone (and only 5 movies ever, although 3 of those were last year). A strong dollar means each ticket sold overseas is worth less than it was just a few years ago. That means that CW would need to sell something like 50% more tickets than IM3 to hit $1B OS even though IM3 pulled $800M internationally.

To clarify, I'm not saying it can't hit $1B OS as AoU would have if not for international deflation (or if it had been a better movie). I remain somewhat skeptical that a Captain America sequel can be a top 5 movie of all time, even though I'm bullish on its overall outlook.

This isn't being viewed, or marketed as a Captain America solo film. It's a major crossover film, that is Captain America in name only.

 

[Gerontophobe]

This isn't being viewed, or marketed as a Captain America solo film. It's a major crossover film, that is Captain America in name only.

Sure, but in the end the title brand matters. If it were titled as an Avengers movie I think that would make a difference. There's a very good reason WB put Batman not just in the title for BvS but first. That helped the film open to TDK trilogy levels (although the quality of BvS immediately torpedoed that advantage).

 

[KangConquers]

Sure, but in the end the title brand matters. If it were titled as an Avengers movie I think that would make a difference. There's a very good reason WB put Batman not just in the title for BvS but first. That helped the film open to TDK trilogy levels (although the quality of BvS immediately torpedoed that advantage).

Almost all tracking indicates this will amount to nothing but hair splitting on your part.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Almost all tracking indicates this will amount to nothing but hair splitting on your part.

I disagree. It isn't tracking like an Avengers sequel but more in line with IM3. A month out AoU was tracking for $200M+. If the branding didn't matter, then CW should already be tracking for $200M+. It may very well end up higher than AoU and possibly The Avengers, but clearly the industry thinks the branding matters.

 

[Docker2.0]

I disagree. It isn't tracking like an Avengers sequel but more in line with IM3. A month out AoU was tracking for $200M+. If the branding didn't matter, then CW should already be tracking for $200M+. It may very well end up higher than AoU and possibly The Avengers, but clearly the industry thinks the branding matters.

I'm going to continue to say this until the cows come home: opening weekend was hurt by all the sports on, especially the Mayweather/Paq fight. I also believe the Kentucky Derby was on or some redneck sports. For it to make close to $200M OW with those events going on, especially the highest grossing fight in boxing history, then you can only imagine what it would have made if the fight was moved.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I disagree. It isn't tracking like an Avengers sequel but more in line with IM3. A month out AoU was tracking for $200M+. If the branding didn't matter, then CW should already be tracking for $200M+. It may very well end up higher than AoU and possibly The Avengers, but clearly the industry thinks the branding matters.

Tracking is not an exact science.

What was Jurassic World tracking to? 135 m OW?

 

[TalismanRing]

I disagree. It isn't tracking like an Avengers sequel but more in line with IM3. A month out AoU was tracking for $200M+. If the branding didn't matter, then CW should already be tracking for $200M+. It may very well end up higher than AoU and possibly The Avengers, but clearly the industry thinks the branding matters.

A month out AOU was tracking at $185m+ and 3 weeks out $190-200m with some saying it could do $210m+.

Three weeks out this is tracking $175m-185m with some saying it could hit $200m.

So domestically right now tracking in between IM3 and AOU.

At Cinema-con distributors and analysts were saying it's a $1.5b ww movie so tracking like an Avengers movie ww.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

For some reason I don't expect the OS vs DOM numbers to be so lopsided.

 

[Gerontophobe]

A month out AOU was tracking at $185m+ and 3 weeks out $190-200m with some saying it could do $210m+.

Three weeks out this is tracking $175m-185m with some saying it could hit $200m.

So domestically right now tracking in between IM3 and AOU.

At Cinema-con distributors and analysts were saying it's a $1.5b ww movie so tracking like an Avengers movie ww.

Tracking for AoU was pegged at $200M+ three weeks out while CW is at $175M. My point is just that if this were billed as an Avengers movie, the pundits would be predicting a higher OW because they know that branding matters. I'm sure when the first tracking comes out for Infinity War in two years it will be huge. In the end, whether this can top Avengers come down to reviews and WOM; if both are outstanding it has a pretty good shot at it.