Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

[Zarex]

But what's the point in throwing out all those means and averages when you have the ACTUAL numbers of Cap and X3 to compare?

Cap 1 did $369M in 2011. X3 (the last X-Men movie with the full cast) did $459M in 2006, which comes out to approx. $510M in 2011 dollars. And in 2006, international numbers were nothing like they are now. These are the figures that are relevant to compare.

Yes Marvel/Disney has a good average, but just because Iron Man and The Avengers are bringing up the average doesn't mean that Cap is suddenly going to do those numbers as well. I think GotG will do well and possibly great if it's fun and well made. But your talk of averages is definitely just using the good to coverup the not so good.

Point taken. But by calling this film a sequel to X3, rather than the much less successful XM:FC, aren't you doing the same thing?

My concern with DOFP is that FOX's X films have seen declining box office returns, it may have a poor lead in with The Wolverine, and there is uncertainty as to whether the public is clamoring to get the old gang back together again. Though if Singer can pull off another film of X2 quality, none of that may matter.

 

[josh8]

Point taken. But by calling this film a sequel to X3, rather than the much less successful XM:FC, aren't you doing the same thing?

My concern with DOFP is that FOX's X films have seen declining box office returns, it may have a poor lead in with The Wolverine, and there is uncertainty as to whether the public is clamoring to get the old gang back together again. Though if Singer can pull off another film of X2 quality, none of that may matter.

I agree that maybe I'm overestimating the public's enthusiasm for the return of the original cast. But I did notice a lot of news sources picking up the casting announcements of Hugh and Halle. With them front and center, I think the movie is going to be marketed as X4. Hell, even I'm seeing it that way, and I'm an obsessed, rabid fan.

I really think that to the masses DOFP will look like the first real X-Men film since 2006.

EDIT: And I agree that The Wolverine is going to disappoint. I have a bad feeling about the movie just not connecting with anyone.

 

[psylockolussus]

Where you seem to be convinced that DOFP will do $900m+ & the only way GotG could beat that is to hit $1b, others (myself included) have much more modest predictions for DOFP (at least for now) of around $450-600m. Unless GotG is crap it should do $400m minimum, but could go a good deal higher (I'd say $400m-$550m). So from that perspective it's solid competition for DOFP.

Yet you're claiming people will be excited for the 7th film in a series that has 2 of the worst films of the genre from a studio that has made several other of the worst in the genre?

People will not care if X3/Origins sucked since this is a different movie and we already had a good movie after Origins.

And I didn't say dofp will do 900m+, thats like crazy numbers and I only voted for $700million+, so get your facts right!

 

[psylockolussus]

Here's my predictions

2013
Iron Man 3 - 800 million worldwide
Man of Steel - 450 million worldwide
The Wolverine - 400 million worldwide
Thor: The Dark World - 700 million worldwide

2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - 400 million worldwide
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 675 million worldwide
X-Men: Days of Future Past - 700 million worldwide $UCCE$$
Guardians of the Galaxy - 250 million worldwide

 

[By your Command]

Here's my predictions

2013
Iron Man 3 - 800 million worldwide
Man of Steel - 450 million worldwide
The Wolverine - 475 million worldwide
Thor: The Dark World - 550 million worldwide

2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - 400 million worldwide
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 650 million worldwide
X-Men: Days of Future Past - 700 million worldwide $UCCE$$
Guardians of the Galaxy - 250 million worldwide

I could totally see this happening, Marvel is Disney's new Pixar, so far they can pretty much do nothing wrong, and "Guardians of the Galaxy" is looking more and more like "Cars".

 

[def28]

It just feels like GotG has the ingredients to be that lightning in a bottle franchise that takes everyone by surprise...

Yeah, I have a feeling that film will do solid numbers.

 

[psylockolussus]

I could totally see this happening, Marvel is Disney's new Pixar, so far they can pretty much do nothing wrong, and "Guardians of the Galaxy" is looking more and more like "Cars".

Maybe if the film has a May or July release date, there's more possibility of it getting more money. But August? Like seriously the only movies that was released in August that hit the 200million mark at the domestic box-office are The Bourne Ultimatum, Signs, The Sixth Sense Rush Hour 2. I also don't see it performing like Rise of the Planet of the Apes, worldwide.

I think its just weird that Marvel Studios gave Captain America an April release date and Guardians of the Galaxy an August release date. I'm not even sure if Thor/Ant-Man could perform well in November. These film should be released in May or July, unless its already a big movie series like Harry Potter or Transformers.

 

[By your Command]

Maybe if the film has a May or July release date, there's more possibility of it getting more money. But August? Like seriously the only movies that was released in August that hit the 200million mark at the domestic box-office are The Bourne Ultimatum, Signs, The Sixth Sense Rush Hour 2. I also don't see it performing like Rise of the Planet of the Apes, worldwide.

I think its just weird that Marvel Studios gave Captain America an April release date and Guardians of the Galaxy an August release date. I'm not even sure if Thor/Ant-Man could perform well in November. These film should be released in May or July, unless its already a big movie series like Harry Potter or Transformers.

And also the movie needs some serious star power to make it, Captain America had Tommy Lee Jones, Thor had Natalie Portman and Anthony Hopkins. So far GotG is facing a "where's the beef?" dilemma.

 

[psylockolussus]

And also the movie needs some serious star power to make it, Captain America had Tommy Lee Jones, Thor had Natalie Portman and Anthony Hopkins. So far GotG is facing a "where's the beef?" dilemma.

I heard Rocket Raccoon will be voiced by Adam Sandler or Jim Carrey. But I don't think they would help the film to be a big blockbuster. Disney had a couple of films in the past few years that didn't perform so well at the box-office, like John Carter, Prince of Persia, The Sorcerer's Apprentice and those movies were a movie adaptation of something. I wouldn't be surprised if Guardians of the Galaxy underperformed. Unless they cast a huge actor like Brad Pitt (my ideal choice for Thor) or Tom Cruise (my ideal choice for captain America), then it would be a big success just like Iron Man.

 

[Double B]

GotG's box office intrigues me beyond belief.

It's either going to underperform or be absolutely massive. I don't see an inbetween (Cap 1/Thor numbers).

 

[By your Command]

I heard Rocket Raccoon will be voiced by Adam Sandler or Jim Carrey. But I don't think they would help the film to be a big blockbuster. Disney had a couple of films in the past few years that didn't perform so well at the box-office, like John Carter, Prince of Persia, The Sorcerer's Apprentice and those movies were a movie adaptation of something. I wouldn't be surprised if Guardians of the Galaxy underperformed. Unless they cast a huge actor like Brad Pitt (my ideal choice for Thor) or Tom Cruise (my ideal choice for captain America), then it would be a big success just like Iron Man.

This, this is what this movie feels so far, and yes they need to round the top billing of "Ocean's Eleven" and start offering money, cause just because they made "The Avengers" work doesn't mean it's smooth sailing after that for an outer space movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

GotG's box office intrigues me beyond belief.

It's either going to underperform or be absolutely massive. I don't see an inbetween (Cap 1/Thor numbers).

I think its either going to underperform or inbetween.

The August release date will not make the movie absolutely massive, same with Cap 2.

 

[EnDz0n3]

Can someone explain the high expectations for MOS? Didn't SR do only $200 Mil domestic back in 2006? And even then it limped towards that number.

 

[psylockolussus]

Can someone explain the high expectations for MOS? Didn't SR do only $200 Mil domestic back in 2006? And even then it limped towards that number.

Christopher Nolan is producing the movie and some people think it will be an amazing film just because Christopher Nolan is involved in the movie.

 

[TheDarkRandall]

I want to watch good movies any time of the year, I don't care what month it is. I'll watch a Batman movie in September. I'll watch George Clooney battle robots in November. Never have I in my entire life not gone to a movie because of the time of year. Of course more people go to movies in the summer time because people tend to have more free time during those three months, but a good movie is a good movie and it will do well no matter what time of the year it is.

 

[psylockolussus]

Just because its a good movie, it doesn't mean a lot of people will watch it.

 

[def28]

The August release date will not make the movie absolutely massive, same with Cap 2.

Big movies have done fine in August. PLanet Of The Apes, Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 2 and GI Joe all opened strong. March and April films do real well too. The FAst series, Clash Of The Titans, 300, Alice, OZ etc

The thing that will matter the most is that both DOFP And GOtG are marketed well as crowd pleasing flicks.

 

[psylockolussus]

Big movies have done fine in August. PLanet Of The Apes, Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 2 and GI Joe all opened strong. March and April films do real well too. The FAst series, Clash Of The Titans, 300, Alice, OZ etc. The thing that will matter the most is that both DOFP And GOtG are marketed well as crowd pleasing flicks.

Most of those films you mentioned came from a well-known material or an ongoing movie franchise. Guardians of the Galaxy is not.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I agree that maybe I'm overestimating the public's enthusiasm for the return of the original cast. But I did notice a lot of news sources picking up the casting announcements of Hugh and Halle. With them front and center, I think the movie is going to be marketed as X4. Hell, even I'm seeing it that way, and I'm an obsessed, rabid fan.

No, you're not overestimating general audience's enthusiasm for the OT cast's return--at least not by judging on-line buzz. When Hugh and Halle got cast for DoFP it was everywhere on the net, all over the mainstream news outlets. None of the other actors from FC garned that sort of attention because in most people's eyes, it is Hugh and Halle (along with Ian and Patrick) that have really led this franchise from day one. FOX is a marketing machine--they KNOW this.

And that's why they've been brought back NOW. If they did another First Class film similar to the first FC it would possibly kill the franchise's momentum...at least without some big name characters and actors playing them. X-Men just needs more support at this point because of all of the missteps over the last 13 years and FOX is clearly trying to "right the ship" once and for all.

And I'm sorry, but I think Wolverine is going to come in high and drop like a dud. I also don't expect it to be well received by critics either.

 

[def28]

Most of those films you mentioned came from a well-known material or an ongoing movie franchise. Guardians of the Galaxy is not.

It's attached to the biggest comic film series of all time. That matters alot.

The awareness for this film is much higher then you think it is. The comic didn't magically outsell All New X-Men, Avengers and Uncanny X-Men #1 because there's no hype for this film. Marvel's marketing will be smashed into heads. The GA will know this is a film connected to something larger when they see the advertising and other Marvel films.

 

[psylockolussus]

Like I said, maybe if Guardians of the Galaxy appeared in Avengers 1 movie, being part of MCU would definitely help the movie to be more successful. But they haven't appeared in an Avengers movie yet. So they aren't really attached to the biggest comic film series of all time simply because they didn't appear in the film. Plain and simple. Just because they are gonna appear in a cross-over film, it doesn't guarantee huge success, look at the box-office performance of The Incredible Hulk for example.

And the comic-book community/comic-book buyers are like 10% (probably less than 10%) of people who watch movies in theater.

 

[psylockolussus]

Big movies have done fine in August. PLanet Of The Apes, Bourne Ultimatum, Rush Hour 2 and GI Joe all opened strong. March and April films do real well too. The FAst series, Clash Of The Titans, 300, Alice, OZ etc

The thing that will matter the most is that both DOFP And GOtG are marketed well as crowd pleasing flicks.

Plus another reason why Iron Man, Iron Man 2, Thor and The Avengers did well is they started the summer season of movies. And all of the superhero movies (like X2, Spider-Man, Spider-Man 3, Origins) that started the summer at least earned more than $150 million dollars at the domestic box-office. Guardians of the Galaxy doesn't have an early May release. Usually the strong performances of the summer are from the 1st weekend of May, Memorial weekend and the third weekend of July (DOFP's release date). So its not just that GOTG is completely unknown to the general public, but its also the release date, the lack of huge actors (so far) and the unknown director. Like I said before, being part of MCU, is the only reason right now why this movie should do well and I don't think thats enough.

 

[def28]

Like I said, maybe if Guardians of the Galaxy appeared in Avengers 1 movie, being part of MCU would definitely help the movie to be more successful. But they haven't appeared in an Avengers movie yet. So they aren't really attached to the biggest comic film series of all time simply because they didn't appear in the film. Plain and simple. Just because they are gonna appear in a cross-over film, it doesn't guarantee huge success, look at the box-office performance of The Incredible Hulk for example.

Hulk was Pre Avengers. IN a post Avengers world Hulk is a hell of alot more popular. As is anything MArvel universe. GOTG will def be part of The Avengers universe when this film is released. I have no idea how you can say otherwise. Audiences enjoy new characters.The GA knew **** about Iron Man. ANd RDJ wasnt exactly hip with kids and making 100s of millions before hand.

And the comic-book community/comic-book buyers are like 10% (probably less than 10%) of people who watch movies in theater

My point was that word on the film even this early on is having an effect on those characters. They arent C or D list anymore. The sales were ridiculous for a GOTG title.

 

[psylockolussus]

Hulk was Pre Avengers. IN a post Avengers world Hulk is a hell of alot more popular. As is anything MArvel universe. GOTG will def be part of The Avengers universe when this film is released. I have no idea how you can say otherwise. Audiences enjoy new characters. No one new **** about Iron Man GA wise.

My point was that word of the film even this early on is having an effect on those characters. They arent C or D list anymore. The sales were ridiculous for a GOTG title.

Those buyers are still part of the comic-book community. Comic book sales don't really translate to the sales of movie tickets. And Lol @ Guardians of the Galaxy suddenly becoming a b-lister comic book property just because it outsold the relaunch issues of the X-Men comics. It doesn't work out like that.

And so what if Hulk was pre-Avengers? They made it clear at that time, that Hulk was gonna be in the Avengers movie. Its the same thing with Guardians of the Galaxy. Just because the Avengers movie was a big success, it doesn't mean the other MCU films is gonna be successful too.

 

[def28]

Still those buyers are part of the comic-book community. Comic book sales don't really translate to the sales of movie tickets.

It matters because it starts word of mouth and quite alot of people are now familiar with these characters. Two years ago no one knew anything about them.

Like I said marketing and being a good, crowd pleasing film is whats gonna make the box office for both DOFP and GOTG.

And so what if Hulk was pre-Avengers? They made it clear at that time, that Hulk was gonna be in the Avengers movie but it still didn't really do wonders for the film. Its the same thing with Guardians of the Galaxy. Just because the Avengers movie was a big success, it doesn't mean the other MCU films is gonna be successful too.

So If Avengers came out before Hulk your telling me it would make the same box office?

Thanos will more then likely be in GotG. And bottom line Everyone saw Avengers and is now aware of the series. Post Avengers is a different place for every new Marvel film.