Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

[psylockolussus]

So If Avengers came out before Hulk your telling me it would make the same box office?

No, because Hulk already appeared in the Avengers movie. But with the Guardians of the Galaxy, they haven't appeared in an Avengers movie, so they don't have that Avengers-effect yet.

It matters because it starts word of mouth and quite alot of people are now familiar with these characters. Two years ago no one knew anything about them.

Like I said marketing and being a good, crowd pleasing film is whats gonna make the box office for both DOFP and GOTG.

I already said before that people in the internet, fanboys and comic-book community are probably 10% of the people who watch movies in the theater. And they don't really determine the success of a movie.

How about you go to a mall and ask people about the Guardians of the Galaxy movie or just the Guardians of the Galaxy, I'm pretty sure most of them will tell you that they have no idea about it.

 

[def28]

Its more popualr now then it was years ago and its Because of this movie. I dont care what the GA knows/ doesnt because that can never ever be clearly defined. Some know more then others. Some have seen X3 and wont know who Ellen Paige was or what War Machines real name is in Iron Man. They just want a good movie which is why I am saying advertising and a good film will matter the most. They dont care if the characters are well known or not. You cant disregard all internet and comic book sales/popularity/fans. It does matter. Thats were all this starts.

No, because Hulk already appeared in the Avengers movie. But with the Guardians of the Galaxy, they haven't appeared in an Avengers movie, so they don't have that Avengers-effect yet.

Thanos will more then likely be there, his daughter is one of the main characters, plus we will get an apearence by one of them in some form in the next few marvel films. The Avengers was a game changer for the series as a whole. I find it very hard to believe it will have no effect on GoTG

 

[psylockolussus]

Thanos will more then likely be there his daughter is one of the main characters, plus we will get an apearence by one of them in some form in the next few marvel films. The Avengers was a game changer for the series as a whole. I find it very hard to believe it will have no effect on GoTG

A cameo scene doesn't guarantee success unless they really promote those cameo scenes. Robert Downey Jr. appeared in the Incredible Hulk but it didn't help the box-office performance of the film.

I don't think The Avengers will have a big effect on GoTG just because none of the guardians appeared in the movie. Its a different situation to Thor/Captain America whom both appeared in the Avengers. People might watch Thor 2 and Captain America 2 because they saw them in the Avengers. But GoTG, please!

 

[def28]

I disagree, Avengers will impact every film. And I will leave it at that haha

 

[psylockolussus]

Avengers will impact every film.

Sure, if they already appeared in the movie. But until they haven't appeared in the movie of the Avengers. It won't have an impact when it comes to ticket sales.

 

[def28]

Sure, if they already appeared in the movie. But until they haven't appeared in the movie of the Avengers. It won't have an impact when it comes to ticket sales.

They will know it's connected to Avengers psylockolussus, it will be marketed as a post Avengers film.

 

[psylockolussus]

They will know it's connected to Avengers psylockolussus, it will be marketed as a post Avengers film.

Like how, are they gonna include in the posters that they will appear in the next Avengers movie? They will probably include that in the credits but posters? I don't think so.

Even if they promote this movie with the tagline of "From the producers of Iron Man, Captain America, Thor and The Avengers". Its not gonna be enough.

Maybe if they include Iron Man and the other more well-known superheroes in the trailer and Tv spots, then that could possibly attract a lot of casual viewers but I don't think they would go that far to promote this movie.

 

[def28]

Even if they promote this movie with the tagline of "From the producers of Iron Man, Captain America, Thor and The Avengers". Its not gonna be enough.

Maybe if they include Iron Man and the other more well-known superheroes in the trailer and Tv spots, then that could possibly attract a lot of casual viewers but I don't think they would go that far to promote this movie.

They will go about it alot of ways, they already are by putting out their phase 2 plans on DVD"S and Blu rays and its quite sometime before the release. Marvel will not let Guardians look like it has nothing to do with the other films, same with Ant Man. They handle their marketing and awareness very well.

 

[psylockolussus]

Yeah but its still not enough for Guardians of the Galaxy to be a big blockbuster. So it would probably perform lower than the 1st films of Thor and Captain America.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

The Pixar comparison is apt. It's name is now as much the selling feature as the titles they release. The MS/MCU brand is becoming the same thing and GotG will definitely feel the residual effects of this. The marketing alone leading up to the film will make the MCU connection crystal clear to everyone, make no mistake.

I'm not saying GotG will be a juggernaut, just don't underestimate it's potential, or the weight that the Marvel Studios/MCU brand now carries. I wouldn' be surprised to see this "unknown property" bank 400-450 M ww if it's good. The MCU is officially on the map, it's pop culture.

 

[josh8]

Its more popualr now then it was years ago and its Because of this movie. I dont care what the GA knows/ doesnt because that can never ever be clearly defined. Some know more then others. Some have seen X3 and wont know who Ellen Paige was or what War Machines real name is in Iron Man. They just want a good movie which is why I am saying advertising and a good film will matter the most. They dont care if the characters are well known or not. You cant disregard all internet and comic book sales/popularity/fans. It does matter. Thats were all this starts.

Thanos will more then likely be there, his daughter is one of the main characters, plus we will get an apearence by one of them in some form in the next few marvel films. The Avengers was a game changer for the series as a whole. I find it very hard to believe it will have no effect on GoTG

Wow. Do you really think anyone outside of comic fans actually knew who Thanos was in that Avengers cameo. And now we're supposed to know that one of members of the GotG is Thanos' daughter?? I've been collecting comics for over twenty years and I don't even know that.

And this is coming from someone who thinks GotG will do well. I think it'll do good box office if it is well made. It has some nice ingredients to be a really fun space/swashbuckling movie. But it also has a very equal chance of looking ridiculous (see Cowboys vs. Aliens) and bombing completely. It's just too early to tell. The Avengers link is really weak on this one. And just because The Avengers did supremely well doesn't mean that all it touches is suddenly gold.

Comic book sales just don't translate to movie potential. Look at how badly Green Lantern performed. Comic fans spread buzz within the comic community and not much further. It's just the way it is unfortunately.

 

[def28]

Wow. Do you really think anyone outside of comic fans actually knew who Thanos was in that Avengers cameo. And now we're supposed to know that one of members of the GotG is Thanos' daughter?? I've been collecting comics for over twenty years and I don't even know that.

Nope, but I think the millions who saw it in theatres or own it asked "who's that guy" and got an answer somehow. Who knows. Maybe someone watched the Silver Surfer cartoon growing up and was like oh **** I remember that character. There's no way to actually know an average movie goers geek knowledge because everyone grew up with different things. And yeah, unless they change it up Gamora is the adopted Daughter of Thanos.

And this is coming from someone who thinks GotG will do well. I think it'll do good box office if it is well made. It has some nice ingredients to be a really fun space/swashbuckling movie. But it also has a very equal chance of looking ridiculous (see Cowboys vs. Aliens) and bombing completely. It's just too early to tell. The Avengers link is really weak on this one. And just because The Avengers did supremely well doesn't mean that all it touches is suddenly gold.

I agree. Until we see one fail or increase post Avengers, this is all speculation. Being a part of the Avengers franchise matters though, thats for sure.

Comic book sales just don't translate to movie potential. Look at how badly Green Lantern performed. Comic fans spread buzz within the comic community and not much further. It's just the way it is unfortunately.

The movie potential translated to comic sales here. I'm sure Bendis helped it out but that comic never did those kind of sales. There are more interest in those characters because of the film and Marvel is seeing profit cause of it, which does show for something. These characters have a much wider appeal in the comic world now.

Alot of comic films do get chosen based on popularity and fan base, so I think comic popularity/sales do matter just like a best selling novel would. What Marvel/DC comic fans enjoy as opposed to the GA are not that far apart as some may think. Especially when its these mainstream blockbusters. They aren't as obsessive haha, but everyone ultimately likes well made, entertaining comic films. Green Lantern is a ****** movie which people thought looked bad to begin with, that is why it failed. Comic fans and audiences hate that flick. Everything comes down to the film being advertised well and the movie being enjoyed by the audience.

 

[Zarex]

Like how, are they gonna include in the posters that they will appear in the next Avengers movie? They will probably include that in the credits but posters? I don't think so.

Potential poster/standee quote: The AVENGERS have the earth. We've got the rest.

Potential print ad: Stay to the end for an exclusive sneak preview of Avengers 2, in theaters May 2015.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Again the Idea that every marvel related film that Disney puts out Is guranteed to do gangbusters Is crazy.

Right off the bat there Is no gurante that Thor and Cap sequels will hit 200
million domesticly.Iron Man 3 will likely hit 300 million domesticly before leaving
theatres.But evidance has been If Robert Downey JR Isn't starring In MS films
they don't hit 200 Million domesticly.Iron Man 2 did less domesticly than 1.

Iron Man 3 will be top comic book film of 2013.That's a given.But It's likely to show solo films are less sucessful than team films.Even If X-Men Origins had
been as beloved as X2 It would never had gotten the sucess of X2 and Last
Stand.

Comic Book films have to reach beyond those presently reading the comics.There are plenty out there who know classic marvel comics and go why Is Nick fury black or I don't remember Shield bringing the Avengers
together.I couldn't tell who the characters were In GotG to save my life.
And untill the Quesmeda regime at marvel made my had enough and quit buying new comics In 2005 I had quite a collection.X-men and to lesser extent Spider-man were my primary Intrest but I have read avengers,some solo efforts,and FF.

GotG Is opening 2 weeks after DOFP.First Class proved X-Men Is still strong overseas.It's domesticly where First Class stuggled.Hugh Jackman and several
other OT cast members plus the newfound starpower of Jennifer Lawrence
will help domesticly.

Some people claim The Fantastic Four reboot In March 2015 Is doomed to fail since people will be ready for the Avengers sequel In may.Using that logic the cap sequel Is doomed since the Amazing Spider-Man 2 opens 4 weeks later.If you think Cap suddenly Is more popular than Spider-Man because of Avengers
your crazy.People In GA know X-Men and DOFP has characters they know.
GotG doesn't.

Some people have blinders on.X-Men Is My favorate Comic book Is X-men.
But even If everyone on X-Men board loves DOFP,It gets prasie by critis It still wouldn't get Iron Man,Dark Knight,and Avengers money.The big question for 2014 will be will the Amazing Spider-Man 2 do better than 1.Spider-man 2 did less than Spider-Man.The only MS solo film I have loved Is The Incredible
Hulk and that has been treated like a stepchild by Disney/MS.

People are also acting like no film from DIsney/MS will ever be a disappointment at Box office.That's crazy.Every studio has disappointments.

 

[By your Command]

...Some people have blinders on.X-Men Is My favorate Comic book Is X-men.
But even If everyone on X-Men board loves DOFP,It gets prasie by critis It still wouldn't get Iron Man,Dark Knight,and Avengers money...

I think the strategy that Marvel and FOX are using to focus in the chinese market will pay off in the international box office, I mean Fan Bingbing is in this movie, coinckidink? I don't think so.

 

[Angamb]

and to say DOFP cant do Ironman numbers is to have really really low expectations.

This will be an epic and event movie, its not that hard to get 600m worldwide. specially with the 3D release, and all these well known actors and x-men back and together

 

[By your Command]

^Huzzah!!

 

[def28]

People are also acting like no film from DIsney/MS will ever be a disappointment at Box office.That's crazy.Every studio has disappointments.

And here i thought you were a MCU fan. Your gonna have to live with MCU's success awhile longer cause it aint goen anywhere after last summer.

You talk about the GA only going to well known characters even though Iron Man did bank without a majority of people knowing **** about him and RDJ not having a film gross 100 million since "Back to school' in 86. Everyone liked it cause it was a fun blockbuster movie with a good performance that got flawless acclaim. People like new things, especially if they are well made. Most good blockbusters make money.

X-Men can have Iron Man 1 an 2 numbers. They just need better films and marketing. They were headed there after X2. $102 mil opening week for X3 is a damn strong opening. Stronger then the first Iron man I believe . We all know what happened later. It needs fixing, and if all the things Singer says are true then DOFP easily has the potential to get past 600 mil imo. As long as it doesn't suck and Fox actually advertises it.

Potential poster/standee quote: The AVENGERS have the earth. We've got the rest.

Potential print ad: Stay to the end for an exclusive sneak preview of Avengers 2, in theaters May 2015.

Ya sold me on it haha.

 

[Angamb]

exactly.

And if FC made more than 200m in the foreign market, DOFP can easily do 300m.

Lets see what happens on USA, tho, hopefully 300m too.

But the key market will be the foreign one, we'll have a surprise there, remark my words, guys.

 

[psylockolussus]

Wow. Do you really think anyone outside of comic fans actually knew who Thanos was in that Avengers cameo. And now we're supposed to know that one of members of the GotG is Thanos' daughter?? I've been collecting comics for over twenty years and I don't even know that.

And this is coming from someone who thinks GotG will do well. I think it'll do good box office if it is well made. It has some nice ingredients to be a really fun space/swashbuckling movie. But it also has a very equal chance of looking ridiculous (see Cowboys vs. Aliens) and bombing completely. It's just too early to tell. The Avengers link is really weak on this one. And just because The Avengers did supremely well doesn't mean that all it touches is suddenly gold.

Comic book sales just don't translate to movie potential. Look at how badly Green Lantern performed. Comic fans spread buzz within the comic community and not much further. It's just the way it is unfortunately.

Another example for this is the Watchmen movie.

And yes people had no idea about Thanos. Like I was watched The Avengers with my cousins and they were asking me who was the Alien that appeared at the end of the movie.

 

[psylockolussus]

I think the strategy that Marvel and FOX are using to focus in the chinese market will pay off in the international box office, I mean Fan Bingbing is in this movie, coinckidink? I don't think so.

Lets just hope this movie will be released in China!t:

 

[Mr. Dent]

Here's my predictions

2013
Iron Man 3 - 800 million worldwide
Man of Steel - 450 million worldwide
The Wolverine - 475 million worldwide
Thor: The Dark World - 550 million worldwide

2014
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - 400 million worldwide
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 - 650 million worldwide
X-Men: Days of Future Past - 700 million worldwide $UCCE$$
Guardians of the Galaxy - 250 million worldwide

So can I make a bet with you that every single thing there is going to be wrong and you'll never post another prediction on this forum again after August 2014 if I'm right?

I'm not even sure if you're serious with that prediction, it looks like a troll post. Honestly, half of you people here sound like out of touch 2005 X-Men fans.

Here's what I'm putting up:

IM3: OW: $150m / DOM: $400m / INT: $500m / WW: $900m~$1b
MoS: OW: $95m / DOM: $310m / INT: $390M / WW: $700M
Wolv: OW: $65m / DOM: $180m / INT: $220m / WW: $400m
Thor2: OW: $90m / DOM: $250m / INT: $450m / WW: $700m
Cap2: OW: $85m / DOM: $235m / INT: $310m / WW: $545m
TASM2: OW: $115m / DOM: $290m / INT: $520m / WW: $810m
DOFP: OW: $80m / DOM: $210m / INT: $300m / WW: $510m
GotG: OW: $65m / DOM: $230m / INT: $360m / WW: $590m

I will admit I feel like I'm shooting in the dark with TASM2 and being conservative with IM3, but otherwise I'm mostly comfortable with these. Although I feel like I'm being very lenient to the X-Men films, but I'm tossing most of that up to 3D.

 

[josh8]

So can I make a bet with you that every single thing there is going to be wrong and you'll never post another prediction on this forum again after August 2014 if I'm right?

I'm not even sure if you're serious with that prediction, it looks like a troll post. Honestly, half of you people here sound like out of touch 2005 X-Men fans.

Here's what I'm putting up:

IM3: OW: $150m / DOM: $400m / INT: $500m / WW: $900m~$1b
MoS: OW: $95m / DOM: $310m / INT: $390M / WW: $700M
Wolv: OW: $65m / DOM: $180m / INT: $220m / WW: $400m
Thor2: OW: $90m / DOM: $250m / INT: $450m / WW: $700m
Cap2: OW: $85m / DOM: $235m / INT: $310m / WW: $545m
TASM2: OW: $115m / DOM: $290m / INT: $520m / WW: $810m
DOFP: OW: $80m / DOM: $210m / INT: $300m / WW: $510m
GotG: OW: $65m / DOM: $230m / INT: $360m / WW: $590m

I will admit I feel like I'm shooting in the dark with TASM2 and being conservative with IM3, but otherwise I'm mostly comfortable with these. Although I feel like I'm being very lenient to the X-Men films, but I'm tossing most of that up to 3D.

It's pretty obvious from your previous posts that you have a huge Marvel/Disney bias. You even used numbers by comparing FC to Thor1 and Cap1.

And here's where the numbers fail you. Cap1 was not able to beat FC's foreign gross. Now all of a sudden, Cap2 is supposed to beat DOFP in the foreign market when DOFP has the returning cast (Hugh Jackman is very well known around the world) and 3D?

IM1 was a huge success and even it couldn't build too much for IM2. Yet you think Thor and Cap are going to suddenly explode and increase their grosses by 50%. And they're going to have better domestic multipliers than their first movies?

And on top of that, you criticize someone else's predictions and offer a catty bet. Classy.

 

[Mr. Dent]

It's pretty obvious from your previous posts that you have a huge Marvel/Disney bias.

No I don't. I'm apathetic about it either way. If any of these movies fail, aside from GotG, there will be no ****s given from me. It's just plain obvious that Marvel and Disney have far more momentum, resources, and brand to work with now than fledging Fox and the X-Men property they've almost run into the ground.

You even used numbers by comparing FC to Thor1 and Cap1.

This doesn't make any sense.

And here's where the numbers fail you. Cap1 was not able to beat FC's foreign gross. Now all of a sudden, Cap2 is supposed to beat DOFP in the foreign market when DOFP has the returning cast (Hugh Jackman is very well known around the world) and 3D?

IM1 was a huge success and even it couldn't build too much for IM2. Yet you think Thor and Cap are going to suddenly explode and increase their grosses by 50%. And they're going to have better domestic multipliers than their first movies?

And on top of that, you criticize someone else's predictions and offer a catty bet. Classy.

I guess the $1.5b third highest grossing film ever, and Disney marketing, resources, and merchandising mean absolutely nothing?

And yes I criticized his predictions, for the same reason I'm saying you don't have a clue what you're talking about. You're both acting as if Avengers and Disney will have absolutely zero effect on these films going forward, which is quite frankly, ignorant.

 

[josh8]

No I don't. I'm apathetic about it either way. If any of these movies fail, aside from GotG, there will be no ****s given from me. It's just plain obvious that Marvel and Disney have far more momentum, resources, and brand to work with now than fledging Fox and the X-Men property they've almost run into the ground.

Momentum is one thing. But unheard of leaps and bounds is another.

I guess the $1.5b third highest grossing film ever, and Disney marketing, resources, and merchandising mean absolutely nothing?

And yes I criticized his predictions, for the same reason I'm saying you don't have a clue what you're talking about. You're both acting as if Avengers and Disney will have absolutely zero effect on these films going forward, which is quite frankly, ignorant.

Of course The Avengers will have an effect, but it's not like the Midas touch. Thor and Cap are not Iron Man. They don't have the big Robert Downey Jr. factor. Their familiarity factor is of course highly increased now. They will show growth and that is good, but it's going to happen within the confines of reality, not fantasy.

You can roll your eyes as much as you want, but I offered some actual analysis of your numbers instead of just saying you had no clue and calling you ignorant. I never understand how users become like you, quick with the personal insults and high on insensitivity.

You say I have no clue, yet you don't seem to understand the basic fundamentals of box office analysis. You don't know how box office multipliers work for sequels and if you think their popularity is so through-the-roof now then that means... FRONTLOADING. You throw out ridiculous growth estimates (you're predicting 50%) for direct sequels... the likes of which X-Men, Spider-man, and Iron Man (and Toy Story, Tranformers, Fast and the Furious, etc etc) have all NEVER been able to achieve. In recent times, only The Dark Knight and the Pirates sequel have been able to show the gains you're estimating. Those sequels became global sensations. The Avengers was a sensation as well... Thor and Cap were not and will not become one. If the Avengers had that effect we'd be getting a Black Widow movie, another Hulk movie, Hawkeye... but no, there are limits.

And finally, you think GotG is going to open domestically to 65M and close at 230M... an internal multiplier of over 3.5? Summer blockbusters do not do that unless they're kids movies or an extreme fluke. The movie hasn't even started filming and you think it's going to be this amazing anomaly. It could very well do 230M, but it'll have to open a hell of a lot higher than 65.

Maybe I'll be proven wrong, but at least I put some thought into it.