Dr. Strange: Rotten Tomato Watch Thread

[R_Hythlodeus]

so a movie with 90% positive reviews needs roughly 90% positive reviews to stay at 90% positive reviews?
sounds correct

 

[Blitzkrieg]

so a movie with 90% positive reviews needs roughly 90% positive reviews to stay at 90% positive reviews?
sounds correct

 

[AlluAllu]

so a movie with 90% positive reviews needs roughly 90% positive reviews to stay at 90% positive reviews?
sounds correct

Well, there are easy and hard ways to arrive to same conclusions.

 

[Darepool]

Assuming that this gets as many reviews as Ant-Man, (which is 271), Doctor Strange needs to have 243 fresh to be rounded up to 90 %. That means that out of 72 remaining reviews 64 have to be fresh. Which means 89 %. Doctor Strange has a chance, but sadly we should brace ourselves for 80's.

You make it sound like purgatory lol. The Winter Soldier is at 89% and a lot of people consider it Marvel's best film. For me personally, anything 85% and up is great for a CBM today considering just how many there are. That shouldn't matter but it does. Deadpool is considered great and it's at 84%.

 

[AlluAllu]

You make it sound like purgatory lol. The Winter Soldier is at 89% and a lot of people consider it Marvel's best film. For me personally, anything 85% and up is great for a CBM today considering just how many there are. That shouldn't matter but it does. Deadpool is considered great and it's at 84%.

That's only because this has fought so hard to not fall below 90. I originally expected this to land to 73 %, so of course I already consider Doctor Strange a huge success.

 

[Iceman]

It can only go so low now with so many reviews already out. Even if it falls below 90 it shouldn't go too much lower.

 

[Darepool]

That's only because this has fought so hard to not fall below 90. I originally expected this to land to 73 %, so of course I already consider Doctor Strange a huge success.

I hear you It still may finish in the 90's, but based on the recent example of CW, I can understand you thinking the 80's is almost inevitable at this point. Civil War seemed primed to be the highest rated Marvel Studios film for seemingly forever, but the last 50 or so reviews had higher negative ratio which lowered it to "only" 90%....It's as if some critics were just waiting in the weeds for the intense microscope of attention to fade away before they dropped their negative reviews.

 

[Zarex]

More numbers!

If 100% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties T:TDW for the worst performing MCU film on the RT index at 66% fresh.

If 50% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties IM3 on the RT index at 79% fresh.

If 25% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it still comes in at a not too shabby 86% fresh, placing it 6th highest among MCU releases on the RT index.

 

[MahvelBaby!]

Assuming that this gets as many reviews as Ant-Man, (which is 271), Doctor Strange needs to have 243 fresh to be rounded up to 90 %. That means that out of 72 remaining reviews 64 have to be fresh. Which means 89 %. Doctor Strange has a chance, but sadly we should brace ourselves for 80's.

Which is a nothing to scoff at, that is an incredible score.

 

[Iceman]

More numbers!

If 100% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties T:TDW for the worst performing MCU film on the RT index at 66% fresh.

If 50% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties IM3 on the RT index at 79% fresh.

If 25% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it still comes in at a not too shabby 86% fresh, placing it 6th highest among MCU releases on the RT index.

I like this kind of analysis

The last one is probably worst case and nothing wrong with 86%.

 

[InCali]

More numbers!

If 100% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties T:TDW for the worst performing MCU film on the RT index at 66% fresh.

If 50% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties IM3 on the RT index at 79% fresh.

If 25% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it still comes in at a not too shabby 86% fresh, placing it 6th highest among MCU releases on the RT index.

AND if 10% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it....oh, wait, we already figured that out.... t:

 

[InCali]

Ding, ding, ding......200 reviews and still holding at 90%

because 90% is, you know, 9 out of 10.....every time.....I think....

 

[Matchstick]

Since the average MCU Rotten Tomatoes score is 81% (which is damn impressive by itself, if you think about it), pretty much a certainty that Doctor Strange is going to finish at a score that will mark it as an above-average entry for the franchise.

If DS can finish at 88% or better, the average MCU score for all 14 films will tick up to 82% (rounding up).

 

[InCali]

Since the average MCU Rotten Tomatoes score is 81% (which is damn impressive by itself, if you think about it), pretty much a certainty that Doctor Strange is going to finish at a score that will mark it as an above-average entry for the franchise.

If DS can finish at 88% or better, the average MCU score for all 14 films will tick up to 82% (rounding up).

Because we have such a large pool of ratings at this point, I don't see any reason to believe that the remaining reviews will differ substantially from the first 200 (However, I'm not an expert on RT scores). It's possible they may, but it seems unlikely the remaining reviews would vary by more than 20 to 30%. Given the supposition that about 3/4 of the reviews are in, that would translate to a drop or gain of 1% or less.

 

[InCali]

It seems to me from reading some of the reviews that there is a built in bias against comic book movies from a lot of critics. If that is something that exists and doesn't exist for your standard run of the mill drama or comedy (for example), it would have the tendency to drive down ratings relative to each other.

 

[Ozbridge]

It's as if some critics were just waiting in the weeds for the intense microscope of attention to fade away before they dropped their negative reviews.

This is very reasonable, since I believe critics that give negative reviews may want to post their reviews later on to avoid fan's scrutiny (and even death threats). If you're one of the first 5 who give a rotten reviews then you get lots of attention, but if you're the 15th or 20th then no one will pay that much attention anymore. I still remember Mendelson from Forbes giving the first rotten review and he was called "party pooper", "giving rotten review for clicks". Other early negative reviewers also have their past unpopular reviews dug up so they can be discredited.

 

[Darepool]

This is very reasonable, since I believe critics that give negative reviews may want to post their reviews later on to avoid fan's scrutiny (and even death threats). If you're one of the first 5 who give a rotten reviews then you get lots of attention, but if you're the 15th or 20th then no one will pay that much attention anymore. I still remember Mendelson from Forbes giving the first rotten review and he was called "party pooper", "giving rotten review for clicks". Other early negative reviewers also have their past unpopular reviews dug up so they can be discredited.

No doubt. It seemed rather obvious to me that this is what they were doing. Some for reasons like wanting to avoid fan scrutiny, others with different "agendas", which some critics definitely have.

 

[InCali]

Like I said, I'm not expert on RT scores, but this factor is one that could certainly drive down later reviews. Are their people who maybe "want" the notoriety? Maybe they are a smaller group of reviewers?

It would be interesting to look at the RT database and compare the first 200 reviews in general and compare them to the remaining reviews. It would be a very simple t-test, but you could also break it out by genre.

 

[marcvader]

3 more positives in a row takes it back to 91%

90%(90.3)
Average Rating: 7.3/10
Reviews Counted: 208
Fresh: 188
Rotten: 20

 

[kedrell]

More numbers!

If 100% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties T:TDW for the worst performing MCU film on the RT index at 66% fresh.

If 50% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it ties IM3 on the RT index at 79% fresh.

If 25% of the 72 expected remaining reviews for Dr. Strange are rotten, it still comes in at a not too shabby 86% fresh, placing it 6th highest among MCU releases on the RT index.

And if it gets to 72 more without any more negatives at all added it'll end up with a 93%(92.6). IM1's 94% record is safe for now.

Basically this can't move any more than +or- 2-3% at this point. 87-93% are the utmost extremes this can land at.

 

[Darepool]

The number of reviews is random anyway:

AoU - 302 reviews
Civil War - 323 reviews
Winter Soldier - 256 reviews
GotG - 277 reviews
Ant-Man - 267 reviews

X-Men: DoFP - 284 reviews
Deadpool - 272 reviews

Etc, etc, etc....
-----------------------------

Daredevil S1 - 51 reviews
Daredevil S2 - 31 reviews (??)
Jessica Jones - 54 reviews
Luke Cage - 50 reviews

 

[InCali]

The number of reviews is random anyway:

AoU - 302 reviews
Civil War - 323 reviews
Winter Soldier - 256 reviews
GotG - 277 reviews
Ant-Man - 267 reviews

X-Men: DoFP - 284 reviews
Deadpool - 272 reviews

Etc, etc, etc....
-----------------------------

Daredevil S1 - 51 reviews
Daredevil S2 - 31 reviews (??)
Jessica Jones - 54 reviews
Luke Cage - 50 reviews

That doesn't look random to me. The big blockbusters tend to get more reviews and 260-280 reviews looks like about what I'd expect to see. Unless there really is something systematic going on and reviewers are waiting to post negative reviews because they are trying to fly under the radar, I would expect similar ratings (maybe within 20-30% as I said before). When you weight that 3 to 1 (giving it 280 reviews or thereabouts) it gives you a plus or minus .5 for a 20% difference and a plus or minus .75 for a 30% difference. So, if the variation from the current data is 30%, that would mean a final rating of 89.25 or 90.75.

The numbers Kedrell posted as an example assume a much larger variation (which may happen).

 

[Darepool]

That doesn't look random to me. The big blockbusters tend to get more reviews and 260-280 reviews looks like about what I'd expect to see. Unless there really is something systematic going on and reviewers are waiting to post negative reviews because they are trying to fly under the radar, I would expect similar ratings (maybe within 20-30% as I said before). When you weight that 3 to 1 (giving it 280 reviews or thereabouts) it gives you a plus or minus .5 for a 20% difference and a plus or minus .75 for a 30% difference. So, if the variation from the current data is 30%, that would mean a final rating of 89.25 or 90.75.

The numbers Kedrell posted as an example assume a much larger variation (which may happen).

It seems weird to me that there is up to 50 more reviews for certain films in the same genre (some only weeks apart in release) then others...The Winter Soldier has been sitting on 89% and 256 reviews for a long time. Never mind the 30 more reviews that Days of Future Past has, or even the 16 more reviews that Deadpool has, Winter Soldier would just need a measly 2 more positive reviews added to get to 90%. At the end of the day it doesn't mean much to the films established reputation, but having another 90% film in the MCU canon is a nice feather for Marvel. If Strange stays in the 90's then 5 of 14 MCU films will have been in the 90's (36%), but if the Winter Soldier were to get there it would be 43% (6 of 14). That is nothing short of phenomenal for a cinematic universe.

 

[InCali]

It seems weird to me that there is up to 50 more reviews for certain films in the same genre (some only weeks apart in release) then others...The Winter Soldier has been sitting on 89% and 256 reviews for a long time. Never mind the 30 more reviews that Days of Future Past has, or even the 16 more reviews that Deadpool has, Winter Soldier would just need a measly 2 more positive reviews added to get to 90%. At the end of the day it doesn't mean much to the films established reputation, but having another 90% film in the MCU canon is a nice feather for Marvel. If Strange stays in the 90's then 5 of 14 MCU films will have been in the 90's (36%), but if the Winter Soldier were to get there it would be 43% (6 of 14). That is nothing short of phenomenal for a cinematic universe.

Agreed on your latter points, but the difference between the movies you listed other than CW and AoU doesn't strike me as remarkable.

 

[Darepool]

Agreed on your latter points, but the difference between the movies you listed other than CW and AoU doesn't strike me as remarkable.

Maybe not remarkable but as I pointed out, something as miniscule as 2 reviews can be the difference between hitting a bench mark or falling short.