Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[InCali]

4.6 million this weekend, 222 million domestic and 645 million WW right now.

Mister Doctor has been such a force at the BO. 12 million more from domestic markets and 9 million from OS markets gives DS a WW total of 666 million.

Hello again.

I frankly never thought DS would pull in about the same as FB in US/Can. Internationally, there was no chance given Potter popularity outside US/Canada, but even here (it's here because I live, well, here....) those are really strong numbers; esp when you consider that it's Act 1. I think the sequel, following IW, can do better in both markets.

 

[marcvader]

Ww - $647,323,994

 

[metaphysician]

Fantastic quote. Tempted to put it in my sig.

Heh. Feel free.

 

[Tymminator]

Monday to Monday drop was almost nothing.��

 

[iEquinox]

Doctor Strange will be losing theaters this weekend, but it's a lot less than I was expecting with Rogue One opening. It's will drop from 2,763 to 1,930 theaters. That's much better than TDW, which dropped from 1,923 to 1,116 on the 7th week without any big new releases to compete with.

On top of that, boxofficemojo's prediction for this week is 2,4M. If that comes true, that would mean DS actually suffers a smaller drop this weekend (-47%) than TDW did (-52%). With Rogue One opening, that would be a pretty huge accomplishment. (Boxofficemojo's Rogue one prediction is 166M: )
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4251&p=.htm

It looks like the late legs for DS might be better than I expected. Of course we will still have to wait and see if it can match those predictions, but the relatively small theater drop will help.

 

[InCali]

Doctor Strange will be losing theaters this weekend, but it's a lot less than I was expecting with Rogue One opening. It's will drop from 2,763 to 1,930 theaters. That's much better than TDW, which dropped from 1,923 to 1,116 on the 7th week without any big new releases to compete with.

On top of that, boxofficemojo's prediction for this week is 2,4M. If that comes true, that would mean DS actually suffers a smaller drop this weekend (-47%) than TDW did (-52%). With Rogue One opening, that would be a pretty huge accomplishment. (Boxofficemojo's Rogue one prediction is 166M: )
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4251&p=.htm

It looks like the late legs for DS might be better than I expected. Of course we will still have to wait and see if it can match those predictions, but the relatively small theater drop will help.

As a former statistician, I love this $#!t. Thanks for posting. We'll see...ehh?

You listening ehh??

 

[los pollos]

Dr Strange grossed an estimated $2,036,000 over the weekend. It would be nice for it to reach $660M ww just to say it grossed 4x it's reported budget.

Domestic: $226,086,027
Foreign: $426,800,000
Worldwide: $652,886,027

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Thanks to Japan it's already a lock to hit 660m.

 

[Iceman]

The Dr still going strong!

 

[metaphysician]

I'm hoping it breaks past 668, just so it can join the "Outgrossed Man of Steel Club". Which, which Japan. . . its got a shot.

 

[ADollarADay]

I'm hoping it breaks past 668, just so it can join the "Outgrossed Man of Steel Club". Which, which Japan. . . its got a shot.

Antman grossed 9.6MM in Japan, so that should be the floor.

 

[InCali]

I'm hoping it breaks past 668, just so it can join the "Outgrossed Man of Steel Club". Which, which Japan. . . its got a shot.

The idea that a Dr. Strange movie would be anywhere near a Superman movie in WW BO, sounds like, well, fiction......

As it brought in 2M last weekend, I wouldn't be surprised to see it bring in another 3-4M DOM. Another 3-4M OS plus Japan would put it right at the doorstep.

 

[BoredGuy]

Can you imagine WB Execs seeing Strange's numbers roll in...?

"Are you f***ing serious, we have goddam Superman!... how the hell does Dr. Weird beat f***ing SUPERMAN?!? blaaarrgghhhh *wets-himself-and-passes-out**"

lol

 

[InCali]

Can you imagine WB Execs seeing Strange's numbers roll in...?

"Are you f***ing serious, we have goddam Superman!... how the hell does Dr. Weird beat f***ing SUPERMAN?!? blaaarrgghhhh *wets-himself-and-passes-out**"

lol

I'm sure Snyder has a perfectly reasonable explanation.

 

[BoredGuy]

I'm sure Snyder has a perfectly reasonable explanation.

somebody's got jokes...lol

 

[iEquinox]

Doctor Strange actually made $2,210,912 this weekend, which is a 51% drop from last weekend.
So it dropped less than TDW (52%), and TDW didn't have any big new competition in weekend 7, that's pretty impressive.
It made 1.65x more than TDW over the weekend, it should easily be able to make more than TDW made from this point forward.

TDW fell to 319 theaters on the 48th day (DS hits day 48 on wednesday and still has 1923 theaters left today).
So even if DS loses almost all of it's theaters this week, it should still easily make more than TDW after the 7th weekend.
TDW made $5,582,269 after the 7th weekend was over. DS made 1.65x as much as TDW did last weekend, and that multiplier has only gotten higher every single weekend.
For some reason TDW seems to make a slightly bigger percentage of its gross on weekdays, so if we assume DS makes 1.5x as much as TDW after the 7th weekend, it will end with $234,634,343 domestically.
So I'm expecting it to end with about 235M domestically, possibly more if it can hold on to its theaters better than TDW (as I said, TDW fell to 319 on wednesday).

OS it's losing a few markets, which means it will have weaker legs OS than domestically. It made $700,000 OS over the weekend, and it's hard to predict how much more it will make because there are so many different markets to take into account.
It clearly won't make as much OS as it will domestically, I'd say about 2M, but this is a rough estimate.
That would mean the WW total would be 664M without Japan.

Then there's only Japan left (it opens there on the 27th of January). I don't know if we can say Ant-Man is the floor, since after the big MCU movies (Both Avengers, Civil war and Iron man 3) and Iron Man 2, Ant-Man was actually the most succesful MCU movie in Japan.
On the other hand Doctor Strange has been doing very well in other Asian markets, and combined with the growth of the Marvel brand I can see Doctor Strange beating Ant-Man to get 10M+ in Japan. But this far from the release date, there's really no way of telling exactly how well it will do.

10M in Japan would mean a final WW gross of $674M if it all goes as expected.

 

[Vartha]

Still in the theaters here. Tho we do have two 12 screen theaters one on either end of town. Most of the south side screens are Rogue One lol

 

[Strangefan]

I always figured the Marvel Studios title would give Doctor Strange a better than even bet at being successful, but it warms my heart that it has done so well, and continues to have legs. That is positive word of mouth, there. Thanks for keeping the information up to date, it is appreciated.

 

[Xrated48]

Can you imagine WB Execs seeing Strange's numbers roll in...?

"Are you f***ing serious, we have goddam Superman!... how the hell does Dr. Weird beat f***ing SUPERMAN?!? blaaarrgghhhh *wets-himself-and-passes-out**"

lol

 

[InCali]

I frelling love Equinox/Solstice or whatever the frell s/he calls him/herself. Numbers nutjobs are generally guys though....

TDW is considered the comparable (though I rather forgot about that and calc'ed out multipliers for DOM numbers without paying as much attention to details as Eq/Sol did....mainly because I'm lazy...). We'll see. I don't know much about OS numbers because the info is harder to get and more spread out. My guess is that you may be a little bit high on the DOM remainder and I may be a little bit low. I hope I'm wrong.

Anyway, cool. Thanks for that.

 

[Iceman]

Doctor Strange actually made $2,210,912 this weekend, which is a 51% drop from last weekend.
So it dropped less than TDW (52%), and TDW didn't have any big new competition in weekend 7, that's pretty impressive.
It made 1.65x more than TDW over the weekend, it should easily be able to make more than TDW made from this point forward.

TDW fell to 319 theaters on the 48th day (DS hits day 48 on wednesday and still has 1923 theaters left today).
So even if DS loses almost all of it's theaters this week, it should still easily make more than TDW after the 7th weekend.
TDW made $5,582,269 after the 7th weekend was over. DS made 1.65x as much as TDW did last weekend, and that multiplier has only gotten higher every single weekend.
For some reason TDW seems to make a slightly bigger percentage of its gross on weekdays, so if we assume DS makes 1.5x as much as TDW after the 7th weekend, it will end with $234,634,343 domestically.
So I'm expecting it to end with about 235M domestically, possibly more if it can hold on to its theaters better than TDW (as I said, TDW fell to 319 on wednesday).

OS it's losing a few markets, which means it will have weaker legs OS than domestically. It made $700,000 OS over the weekend, and it's hard to predict how much more it will make because there are so many different markets to take into account.
It clearly won't make as much OS as it will domestically, I'd say about 2M, but this is a rough estimate.
That would mean the WW total would be 664M without Japan.

Then there's only Japan left (it opens there on the 27th of January). I don't know if we can say Ant-Man is the floor, since after the big MCU movies (Both Avengers, Civil war and Iron man 3) and Iron Man 2, Ant-Man was actually the most succesful MCU movie in Japan.
On the other hand Doctor Strange has been doing very well in other Asian markets, and combined with the growth of the Marvel brand I can see Doctor Strange beating Ant-Man to get 10M+ in Japan. But this far from the release date, there's really no way of telling exactly how well it will do.

10M in Japan would mean a final WW gross of $674M if it all goes as expected.

Thanks for that

 

[Tymminator]

Hmmm, the last three Mondays (just the Mondays though) have been essentially the same. I just find that interesting.

 

[Tymminator]

Losing a ton of screens this weekend, that's gonna take a big bite.

Still, a great run.

 

[Flint Marko]

Kinda expected this to hit a little closer to $700 mil than it did.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Need about 6-7 million from Japan to pass MOS, it'll get it.