Guardians of the Galaxy Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Nokio]

Can't believe this movie is doing so well for such and unknown property. I would like to think it could make about 6-8 mil tues-thrus and around 10 mil over weekend. Should be around 296 come next sunday. I think it's safe to say that 300 mil is a lock but how far will it go. i don't see 350 happening, maybe 320-325 tops, but I've been wrong before, especially about this movie. Hell I'm the one who said it would bomb. Boy was I wrong and I'm not assumed to admit it.

 

[kedrell]

I don't think that'll happen because the holiday is acting as an unusual force to inflate this weekend and Monday's numbers. After today it should drop back to where it would have already been(basically a $10-12m weekend and around $1m a day on the weekdays). I think around $2-3m for the Tues-Thurs frame and around $8m give or take a million for the next weekend which would be a 40%(+ or - 5%) drop from where it would have been this weekend with no holiday to help it.

 

[Farren]

Yeah, there's going to be a big drop after this weekend. That's just to be expected. Still really impressive so far though.

I wish it had opened better in Germany, because IME Germany seems to like scifi (it was always a big Star Trek market and DoFP did very well there). The delay probably didn't help though.

 

[kedrell]

Everything this coming weekend will drop in the 40-60% range pretty much.

I'd love for this to leg it out and beat that abysmal SM3 but I only see about a 25% chance of that.

On the WW front I know it has almost no chance to beat TF4(only Hobbit 3 has any real shot at that this year) but I am hopeful it can beat Maleficent's WW #.

 

[kedrell]

edit

 

[JC00]

Marvel Report Card:

GOTG - massively outperformed domestically, about expected overseas (low)
numbers

Maybe wait until it has opened in every market before calling the overseas numbers low. As there are still several countries it hasn't opened, China being one.

 

[InCali]

Well I've been to the Cinemark XD and while it's good and the theater is really nice(voted one of the top 10 in the US) I feel Imax is better, but hey it's just me.

With regard to IMAX being better, I agree. The problem is that there's a dearth of 70mm prints out there. I actually "want" to see the Avengers on a HUGE screen (from the 3rd row no less ) and it couldn't be done in the IMAX theater. I wish we had 100 Christopher Nolans out there, but, alas, we don't. If you think the "LieMax" at the AMC theaters is better than the XD theater, then I'll disagree with you. I'll send you a draft of my review if you'd like.

Really impressive weekend numbers for GotG. It consistently keeps over performing.

 

[samsnee]

I'm very curious how well this does in Asia. The humor in this movie is so American 70s/80s centric (Kevin Bacon, Oooh Child), I don't know how well that will translate.

 

[marcvader]

It's still a visual feast and i think that will take it places.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

This run is reminding me of the COTBP's back in 2003.

 

[marcvader]

So its $22.18 mil for the 4 day, awesome.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Great labor day weekend. The domestic box office for this film is quite the achievement. And man does it deserve it.

 

[Farren]

I'm very curious how well this does in Asia. The humor in this movie is so American 70s/80s centric (Kevin Bacon, Oooh Child), I don't know how well that will translate.

In the following countries it opened lower than Thor2, TASM2, DoFP, and Cap2: Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Philippines. It also hasn't topped Hong Kong's opening numbers for those 4 movies (it might outdo Thor2 by the end of it's run; I wouldn't count on the others). Hong Kong is a helpful indicator of mainland China, since culturally it's probably the closest. If GotG ultimately makes about what Thor2 did (about $4M), Thor2's number in China ($55) might be a good indicator. But that's before factoring in the humor issues and the delay (IIRC Thor2 was only delayed about a week in China).

I see Japan making somewhere between $5M to $10M. Maybe a few million more if it's lucky.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

Yeah, there's going to be a big drop after this weekend. That's just to be expected. Still really impressive so far though.

I wish it had opened better in Germany, because IME Germany seems to like scifi (it was always a big Star Trek market and DoFP did very well there). The delay probably didn't help though.

blame it on the abysmal marketing around here. everything MS did right in the marketing campaign in the US, they did wrong for the German speaking market. Almost no trailers (just saw one once before one showing of TWS), the poster campaign started two weeks ago, very little press coverage, even in the cinemas: no standees and just a handful of Posters over the last two months: I was surprised how many people were excited about the movie and knew about it.
that said: went to my second viewing yesterday and once again, the theatre was full. so I expect the movie to do well

 

[kedrell]

I just happened to glance at the seasonal rankings over at BOM and I realized that what Marvel Studios has done here with regards to winning the summers DOM is unprecedented. Pixar is the only sub-studio which can account for more than 1 summer DOM win(TS3 in 2010 and FN in 2003) and even then those aren't back to back. Marvel Studios has won 3 summers in a row with one single overall franchise and considering AoU is next summer, it's 90% likely they'll have 4 summers in a row. That just staggers the mind.

I surprised what other studios took away from Marvel's experiment is "oh, we gotta copy the expanded universe thing" rather than "oh, we need to make specialty sub-studios that can have a laser like focus on certain types of movies so they can be even better and more successful". IMO, the MCU is a case waiting to be made for more fragmentation of movie studios into subsections which each have a high degree of expertise on a specific genre of film.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

In the following countries it opened lower than Thor2, TASM2, DoFP, and Cap2: South Korea.

Roaring Currents pretty much slayed the competition in that country.

 

[craigdbfan]

I just happened to glance at the seasonal rankings over at BOM and I realized that what Marvel Studios has done here with regards to winning the summers DOM is unprecedented. Pixar is the only sub-studio which can account for more than 1 summer DOM win(TS3 in 2010 and FN in 2003) and even then those aren't back to back. Marvel Studios has won 3 summers in a row with one single overall franchise and considering AoU is next summer, it's 90% likely they'll have 4 summers in a row. That just staggers the mind.

I surprised what other studios took away from Marvel's experiment is "oh, we gotta copy the expanded universe thing" rather than "oh, we need to make specialty sub-studios that can have a laser like focus on certain types of movies so they can be even better and more successful". IMO, the MCU is a case waiting to be made for more fragmentation of movie studios into subsections which each have a high degree of expertise on a specific genre of film.

You absolutely nailed it. Disney is seemingly the only studio/company that has understood this.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You absolutely nailed it. Disney is seemingly the only studio/company that has understood this.

Well Disney hasn't really had to do that though. They simply bought the studios. Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilms. They bought them, and just simply let them carry on what they were already doing.

It is smart business, but they haven't exactly done what is being described.

 

[samsnee]

In the following countries it opened lower than Thor2, TASM2, DoFP, and Cap2: Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Philippines. It also hasn't topped Hong Kong's opening numbers for those 4 movies (it might outdo Thor2 by the end of it's run; I wouldn't count on the others). Hong Kong is a helpful indicator of mainland China, since culturally it's probably the closest. If GotG ultimately makes about what Thor2 did (about $4M), Thor2's number in China ($55) might be a good indicator. But that's before factoring in the humor issues and the delay (IIRC Thor2 was only delayed about a week in China).

I see Japan making somewhere between $5M to $10M. Maybe a few million more if it's lucky.

So globally it doesn't sound like it will make as much as we hoped. I still want it to beat MoS.

 

[kedrell]

^IMO, that's guaranteed. Both DOM and WW. $675m WW is locked at this point and $700m WW a very safe bet.

 

[8ulk]

^ I would say 700 mil WW is a lock and 720 mil a safe bet.
With 305 mil DOM a lock i cant see GoTG not hitting 700 mil WW. 400 mil OS is happenning. 395-435 mil OS

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'd say $325M may happen now that Guardians is ahead of Iron Man 1's fifth weekend by $3M.

 

[Nokio]

With regard to IMAX being better, I agree. The problem is that there's a dearth of 70mm prints out there. I actually "want" to see the Avengers on a HUGE screen (from the 3rd row no less ) and it couldn't be done in the IMAX theater. I wish we had 100 Christopher Nolans out there, but, alas, we don't. If you think the "LieMax" at the AMC theaters is better than the XD theater, then I'll disagree with you. I'll send you a draft of my review if you'd like.

Really impressive weekend numbers for GotG. It consistently keeps over performing.

Well I've noticed that Imax quality has been inconsistent at different theaters. The Amc theater I go to has great Imax while the one at the Regal theater is subpar compared to Amc's. The XD at Cinemark is nice but AMC Imax is better but the XD is better then the Imax at Regal. I don't know why or can even understand why the imax experience at AMC is better then Regal when they both are Imax. I've been to that Regal theater and paid for Imax a few times, thinking maybe it was the movie but nope it's not, AMC is a better experience and even though the Regal theater is closer i'll drive the extra few miles to AMC for Imax. The Cinemark XD is closer then all of them but in the area I live in it seems like everyone goes there and it's always crowded even without big releases. A lot of teens also hang out there to cause not much else is around where you don't need a car and then kids are annoying.

Now to be fair I can't speak for all Regal theaters cause I've not been to any others but two. This is the only in my area that has Imax and the other was in Atlanta. I've been to several different AMC theaters with Imax two here in S FLorida, Orlando, Virginia and Kansas City and they were the same.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Good news, guys. Guardians of the Galaxy grossed higher than expected. It actually grossed $22.91M over the four day weekend. It's domestic total is now at $281.2M.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

Maybe by mid-next week Guardians will pass $300M domestically.