Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]514941[/split]

 

[JB33]

Guardians of the Galaxy was a surprise hit, garnering $333.2M domstically and $773.3M worldwide. What do you guys think about box office prospects for the sequel?

Will it expand on GotG?

Will it struggle to live up to the magic of the first?

Will it gross roughly about the same?


The safe bet is usually around the same domestic total or a bit lower, but a higher foreign total as the rest of the world takes note.

 

[Tymminator]

It was a hit. A double hit as opposed to a home run hit. t:

Most of those billion dollars were automatic just on account of being the sequel to the $1.5B home run hit. It made $1.4B by being a double level hit. It could have made a fair bit more by being another home run. And it would have made significantly less by getting out, but even then would likely have finished over a billion.

Your opinion and thats cool. For me, Any movie that makes 450M+ Domestic and 1.4B WW is in no way a "double".

 

[Darepool]

This was an artistic achievement and a huge box office. Happy days.

While some expected a billion, they still shouldn't be disappointed here in the big picture.

 

[ultradog]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]514941[/split]

I'm kinda new here, but shouldn't this continuation thread be labeled "Part 2" rather than "Part 1"? Seems confusing.

 

[metaphysician]

I imagine the forum software just makes it easier to start the increments at 1, rather than 2.

 

[seriesofdreams]

The film was quality and a big success. $387M(ish) domestic ain't nothing to sneeze at. It's alright to take a bow to WW (deserving of all of it's success). Looking forward to getting my hands on the blu-ray. Will try to stop myself from my buying a 4K television...

 

[iEquinox]

This just passed $860M WW, which should be the final WW milestone.
OS it's scraping in the last few dollars, earning $63,229 over the weekend.

Domestically it's also still going with $364,450 over the weekend, dropping only 28.5% from last weekend, which is impressive because it lost 32.8% of its theaters on Friday.

If it's going into discount theaters that will probably be around Labor Day. We'll have to wait to see. If it does, that would give it a little boost, which could be enough to drag it past the $390M domestic mark for a final cherry on top before it leaves theaters.

Domestic: $387,259,952
+ Foreign: $472,853,865
= Worldwide: $860,113,817

 

[Flint Marko]

Very impressive.

 

[Iceman]

Nice (almost) finishing numbers.

 

[ultradog]

I still fully expect this to get that discount theater boost, make $2M+ more, and pass $390M domestic. The closest and best 2 comparisons as evidence are the previous 2 MCU May releases:

1. AoU added about $2M from this point (day 90), and GotG2 is currently doing about as well on a daily basis. It's now in more theaters than AoU was at this point, so could do better than AoU's $2M.

2. CA:CW added about $1M from this point, and GotG2 is doing about triple the numbers CA:CW was doing.

This is the summer of superhero movies, no reason this one won't last in theaters at least another 7 weeks, and maybe 10 more like AoU did.

On a trivial note, Wonder Woman will pass $400M, leaving GotG2, at $390M, as the single movie that got closest to $400M domestic without reaching it, all-time, any genre.

 

[InCali]

This just passed $860M WW, which should be the final WW milestone.
OS it's scraping in the last few dollars, earning $63,229 over the weekend.

Domestically it's also still going with $364,450 over the weekend, dropping only 28.5% from last weekend, which is impressive because it lost 32.8% of its theaters on Friday.

If it's going into discount theaters that will probably be around Labor Day. We'll have to wait to see. If it does, that would give it a little boost, which could be enough to drag it past the $390M domestic mark for a final cherry on top before it leaves theaters.

Domestic: $387,259,952
+ Foreign: $472,853,865
= Worldwide: $860,113,817

For those of you who thought GotG2 would make 1B, you are currently off by just under 14% (1B compared to 860+M). For those of you who thought that GotG was the ceiling, you were off by just a shade over 14%. The Million or so that it brings in DOM will bring down the just under 14% number and raise the just over 14% number, but I'd say everyone was just about equally right/wrong.

 

[iEquinox]

Looks like this is getting a second small boost from discount theaters this weekend(it already got one 3 weeks ago). Theater count is going up from 195 to 299 this Friday.
Which means it should pass its final milestone soon: $390M domestic.

OS, it made $25,333 in the last 2 weekends combined, yet it added $413,595 OS over the last 2 weeks.
Since it's not possible that all of the extra cash came from the weekdays it must be something else.
Maybe they're adjusting for exchange rate fluctuations or some extremely small markets weren't accounted for yet, who knows.

Anyways, totals right now are:
Domestic: $389,251,300
+ Foreign: $473,400,237
= Worldwide: $862,651,537

The domestic total should get a boost to get past $390M within the next few weeks.

It could take a while before it finally ends its run.
Age of Ultron made it all the way into October and GotG2 is making more than AoU at this stage in its run, and it still has more screens left as well, so it could very well do the same.

EDIT: Not sure what happened, it's like the theater count numbers were wrong. It acted as if it didn't gain any theaters and got a pretty standard 86% Friday increase on August 25th, even though the theater count supposedly went up by over 50%. Then, the next weekend it apparently lost pretty much all of those theaters again(back down to 196 from 299), but now it acted as if it gained many theaters with a Friday increase of 325%(September 1st). An increase that should be impossible if it lost that many theaters. It's like the theater count numbers were the wrong way around for those weeks.

Reaching $390M could be hard, but it's still possible depending on how long it sticks around in theaters.

 

[ultradog]

I looked up the DVD release date of AoU - October 2nd, 2015. GotG2 has already been out on DVD for over a week. That must be hurting the box office, and I no longer think it will reach the minor milestone of $390M, unfortunately. An earlier DVD release is a newer trend I guess? It's costing the box office an extra million or so, but they must do it to maximize DVD/Blu Ray sales.

 

[Vincanws]

An earlier DVD release is a newer trend I guess? It's costing the box office an extra million or so, but they must do it to maximize DVD/Blu Ray sales.

Either way, I'm sure they'll make more $$ in Blu Ray / digital sales than they otherwise would a small jump in box office with a handful of discount theatres.

 

[iEquinox]

This has now ended its domestic run, after 140 days (20 weeks).
Came up just short of $390M in the end with a final domestic total of $389,813,101. This makes it the movie that has come closest to $400M without actually passing the mark.

Not sure if the OS run has officially ended yet(they did still update the OS gross after last weekend), but it should only add a few spare $1k's even if it hasn't officially ended yet.

Totals:
Domestic: $389,813,101
+ Foreign: $473,600,865
= Worldwide: $863,413,966

This makes it the 9th highest grossing superhero movie of all time domestically. Worldwide it is number 10. Out of the 16 MCU movies it ranks 5th domestically(behind The Avengers, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Iron Man 3 and Captain America: Civil War) and 6th worldwide(behind those same 4 movies and Spider-Man: Homecoming).

It managed to increase nicely from the breakout hit that was its predecessor, both domestically and internationally, and it ended up with a 2.66x multiplier, nearly exactly the average MCU multiplier, which is very good since it is a sequel and it had a massive $146.5M opening weekend. The only MCU sequel with a better multiplier was Captain America: The Winter Soldier (and The Avengers if you count it as a sequel as well).

 

[TMC1982]

Would GOTGV2 have been regarded as a box office bomb or flop in another era? The film grossed $863 million on a $200 million budget, so not a flop. However, Disney only collected $383 million from that $863 million gross (the rest going to theaters and in taxes) and the film had a total expenditure of $515 million; it only went into profit during its video window.

So based on one particular criteria (if you're basing theaters as the only revenue stream) this film would technically be a flop for not breaking even at the box office.

 

[honestbharani]

Yeah, if you include costs and expenditure from a particular revenue stream but remove that revenue itself, most films will end up looking like flops. Fortunately, its not true. And FWIW, all of those expenses are guesses from Deadline. Its not like it is official numbers and even that $383 M from BO grosses is a "guess".

 

[TheVileOne]

Would GOTGV2 have been regarded as a box office bomb or flop in another era? The film grossed $863 million on a $200 million budget, so not a flop. However, Disney only collected $383 million from that $863 million gross (the rest going to theaters and in taxes) and the film had a total expenditure of $515 million; it only went into profit during its video window.

So based on one particular criteria (if you're basing theaters as the only revenue stream) this film would technically be a flop for not breaking even at the box office.

After Avengers came out in 2012, I heard it didn't start making money until it hit $1 billion.