The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[InCali]

I would be surprised if the film hit 100 million this weekend. If it does then it does and I will be wrong but I'm not projecting that.

It would be one hell of a hold, but Monday's number makes it seem plausible to me. If it can do 30 on Monday, why not 40+ on a Friday.........at that point......in any case, if it doesn't pass JW on Thursday, it'll be right there. Ditto for Avatar on Sunday.

 

[spiderman2]

So my guess is that the movie is going to at 1.66 billion WW at the end of jan 8 the day before it comes out in china. Does that sound to high or to low?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

These numbers are because of the Holidays. The weekday numbers are always unusually good during this time of year. I'm not downplaying these incredible numbers by the way, I'm just explaining them. A 100mil would be great I'm just not counting on that happening yet.

 

[spiderman2]

I expect it to make around that figure but wouldn't be surprised if it's slightly below. Plus it seems to be getting bad luck on missing all the nice round numbers so far ...$250m OW & $150m 2W.

Yeah JW is dropping Friday at the very latest with a very good chance of Thursday. And Avengers even before that.

While maybe it will do like 98m this weekend or something.

I think this is a good point. A lot of the time, I get caught up in %age drops and those can be hard to predict. If TFA can pull in over 30M on a Monday, then it sure seems like a 100M weekend could be in the cards.

While if it did 30m Friday, Saturday and sunday that would make a weekend of 90M and movies tend to make more on weekends then during the week. So if it was able to do 30m on a Monday maybe it could do 40m on Friday. How much did the movie do the Monday and Friday before this week?

 

[InCali]

These numbers are because of the Holidays. The weekday numbers are always unusually good during this time of year.

True, but a lot of people still have to work....like me.

Last week's M to F jump was 10M (40M on Monday and about 50M on Friday), but, as people have pointed out, Xmas is a big movie day. Saturday went up another 7M from Friday so.......

Friday 35M
Sat 40M

That would leave us with a Sunday needing 25M

All that being said, I think you may very well be correct.

 

[spiderman2]

These numbers are because of the Holidays. The weekday numbers are always unusually good during this time of year. I'm not downplaying these incredible numbers by the way, I'm just explaining them. A 100mil would be great I'm just not counting on that happening yet.

I have heard that before about the holiday and in winter you don't have to deal with has much competition with another movies has you would have to in summer. At the same time you don't have kids out of school for like 2 months like you do in the summer. Yeah 100m would be great though because isn't the second weekend record before this movie only like 103m? So if the movie makes 100m 3erd week that would only be 3m less then the second highest 2nd weekend lol. What is the 3erd weekend record? I would think even if it doesn't make 100m it will break what ever the 3erd weekend record is.

 

[InCali]

I have heard that before about the holiday and in winter you don't have to deal with has much competition with another movies has you would have to in summer. At the same time you don't have kids out of school for like 2 months like you do in the summer. Yeah 100m would be great though because isn't the second weekend record before this movie only like 103m? So if the movie makes 100m 3erd week that would only be 3m less then the second highest 2nd weekend lol. What is the 3erd weekend record? I would think even if it doesn't make 100m it will break what ever the 3erd weekend record is.

Avatar had 68M 3rd weekend. That record is toast.

EDIT: I'm thinking that the 4th at 50M (Avatar) is probably falling also. The weekend after that is a holiday and the BO could go up.

 

[spiderman2]

True, but a lot of people still have to work....like me.

Last week's M to F jump was 10M (40M on Monday and about 50M on Friday), but, as people have pointed out, Xmas is a big movie day. Saturday went up another 7M from Friday so.......

Friday 35M
Sat 40M

That would leave us with a Sunday needing 25M

All that being said, I think you may very well be correct.

Oh ok that is interesting how besy do theaters tend to be on new years? With new years day being on Friday could that have any impact?

 

[spiderman2]

Avatar had 68M 3rd weekend. That record is toast.

Oh ok didn't avatar make only 77m opening weekend so that means it only dropped 9m in 2 weekends? That is nuts. But yeah that record will be broken for sure. How much did Jurassic world make 3erd weekend? What is the 4th weekend record?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Anyway I wondered whether I was full of **** because I often am so I just did some investigating of how the movie that matches up best with TFA in terms of which day the Holiday runs and in terms of gross. That's right folks I had to use good old Avatar and I came to the conclusion that I may have spoken to soon about the 100 million. If it even somewhat matches how Avatar (it won't do so exactly because there is naturally more front loading) I would be comfortable predicting 107-115million. I just want to wait and see what the Thursday number is like.

 

[InCali]

Oh ok didn't avatar make only 77m opening weekend so that means it only dropped 9m in 2 weekends? That is nuts. But yeah that record will be broken for sure. How much did Jurassic world make 3erd weekend? What is the 4th weekend record?

JW 54M 3rd weekend. They have all kinds of stats on Box Office Mojo and you can pick and choose amongst all of the little tidbits. It's gone downhill, IMO, since Ray Subers left, but they still keep pretty good historical stats.

 

[InCali]

Anyway I wondered whether I was full of **** because I often am so I just did some investigating of how the movie that matches up best with TFA in terms of which day the Holiday runs and in terms of gross. That's right folks I had to use good old Avatar and I came to the conclusion that I may have spoken to soon about the 100 million. If it even somewhat matches how Avatar (it won't do so exactly because there is naturally more front loading) I would be comfortable predicting 107-115million. I just want to wait and see what the Thursday number is like.

Cool....we have something in common. t:

 

[spiderman2]

Anyway I wondered whether I was full of **** because I often am so I just did some investigating of how the movie that matches up best with TFA in terms of which day the Holiday runs and in terms of gross. That's right folks I had to use good old Avatar and I came to the conclusion that I may have spoken to soon about the 100 million. If it even somewhat matches how Avatar (it won't do so exactly because there is naturally more front loading) I would be comfortable predicting 107-115million. I just want to wait and see what the Thursday number is like.

Thursday tends to be the slowest day for movies right?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Cool....we have something in common. t:

lol

Thursday tends to be the slowest day for movies right?

It will be for this film.

 

[spiderman2]

JW 54M 3rd weekend. They have all kinds of stats on Box Office Mojo and you can pick and choose amongst all of the little tidbits. It's gone downhill, IMO, since Ray Subers left, but they still keep pretty good historical stats.

Oh I know you can find how much a movie has made told on box office mojo but I didn't know you could find a lot of another stats. While star wars is going to keep pulling farther and farther ahead of JW then with it making only 54 on weekend 3. I wonder if week 4 of star wars will be higher then week 3 of JW lol.

 

[spiderman2]

Just looking and if the movie has around the same drop that the movie had from week 1 to week 2 of about 40% this weekend from last weekend that would mean like a 90m weekend but considering how much the movie made on Monday I think the drop is going to be smaller. So maybe we can have 100 mwould need to have around a 30% drop from the weekend before.

 

[spiderman2]

lolIt will be for this film.

Why do you say for this movie?

 

[Erzengel]

Deadline is already projecting TFA to surpass Titanic this weekend at $658 million. Which is good, because I've grown to despise it.

But TFA also can make half of last weeks total by Thursday which is insane. Three days to make $70 million is doable.

 

[spiderman2]

Deadline is already projecting TFA to surpass Titanic this weekend at $658 million. Which is good, because I've grown to despise it.

I have always hated titanic its on my list of top 5 worst movies I have ever seen before. While yeah it only needs around 108 million to get to titanic. It may get to like 750 by the end of the weekend.

 

[InCali]

Oh I know you can find how much a movie has made told on box office mojo but I didn't know you could find a lot of another stats. While star wars is going to keep pulling farther and farther ahead of JW then with it making only 54 on weekend 3. I wonder if week 4 of star wars will be higher then week 3 of JW lol.

Click on the All Time and you'll see Overall, Weekly, Daily, and Misc records. They are running out of "Fastest To $xxxM" records for TFA. t:

 

[InCali]

I have always hated titanic its on my list of top 5 worst movies I have ever seen before. While yeah it only needs around 108 million to get to titanic. It may get to like 750 by the end of the weekend.

Oh Jack. Oh Rose. Oh oh Jack. Oh oh Rose.....

I think my list is topped by Crapformers: Age of Suckstinktion. If I hadn't paid like 14 bucks for a ticket at the XD theater, I would have walked out (and I rather like Mark Wahlberg).

 

[Vincanws]

So eh, has this movie broken even yet?

 

[Erzengel]

There were reports that it had to hit $1.5 billion to be considered a success.

 

[spiderman2]

Click on the All Time and you'll see Overall, Weekly, Daily, and Misc records. They are running out of "Fastest To $xxxM" records for TFA. t:

Oh while I didn't know that and soon it will instead of be just the fastest it will be the first to do like first to make 800m USAt:. Watching JW right now love the movie great to get star wars and JW in the same year and for them to both be great. Top favorite franchise.

1. Star wars
2. Spider man
3. Batman
4. Ice age
5. Jurassic park
6. Toy story

Top favorite trilogy's

1. Dark knight trilogy
2. Star wars old trilogy
3. Spider man trilogy
4. Jurassic park
5. Toy story

If the next apes is really good it could joy those list.

 

[InCali]

So eh, has this movie broken even yet?

They've probably broken even on the production budgets for Episodes 7-9.