The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

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spiderman2 said:
Yeah while the thing is that if you look at ever star wars movie they have all been very successful. I think ever star wars movie has ended up being number 1 in box office for the year the movie came out. When it comes to inflation I don't think there is a fair way to judge things. There are just to many things that can make a difference. I mean the international market is bigger then it used to be and ticket prices are higher and you have IMAX. But at the same time you have things now that keep people from going to the movies like Netflix, video games ect. Also I don't know how many movies come out per year now compared to say when gone with the wind came out but I beat there are way more movies in a year now coming out compared to back then witch means you have more options for movies to go to. Because off those things if gone with the wind was out today I don't think it sales has many tickets has it did back then. The only fair comparesion really when it comes to movies is comparing movies that came out in the same year like comparing TFA to Jurassic world.



I had no idea in till a few weeks ago that Disney owned ESPN. I thought it was odd they did a lightsaber show thing on ESPN. I was like you wouldn't think they would show something like that on that kind of chanel. Then a few days latter I found out they owned ESPN. Is there any thing that Disney doesn't own lol.
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Wow. You hit virtually EVERY point I've made in the past about this adjusted for inflation stuff. I thought I was alone in the wilderness.

I may be crazy, but now I've got company. :oldrazz:
 
spiderman2 said:
Yeah we could maybe be at like 750 after sunday and only be around 10 million behind avatar
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Could be and could be higher. Also, remember that Avatar only hit 760 after its re-release. The BO # for the original release was just under 750M.
 
Tymminator said:
Week 3 once school is back will be interesting.
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Very. There are still matinees and not everyone is back at school. A lot of us have to work for a living during the week anyway. There will be a drop off. That's for sure. The real question is how it runs through late Jan/Feb/early March??? If it can continue to chug along for several weeks, it can do some real damage and that type of longevity is not out of the question.
 
Weekdays will be less important then weekends. Weekends go up when the weekdays go down. Look at Avatar.
 
I'd like to know if Star Wars' success so far shows up much in Chinese media ahead of the release there.
 
Iceman said:
I'd like to know if Star Wars' success so far shows up much in Chinese media ahead of the release there.
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If I know Disney, they're over there hyping the hell out of it. I heard something to the effect that they had some of their whiz bang marketers over there drumming it up.

Star Wars coffee, SW tea, SW popcorn buckets, SW ice cream, SW sandwiches......They should just say screw it and come out with a Star Wars car.

EDIT: I forgot SW shoes.....
 
That's cool. I was wondering if the (non-Disney) media there report much on how well it's doing at the moment or if people aren't really interested in that there or if the media favour local films etc.
 
spiderman2 said:
Yeah while the thing is that if you look at ever star wars movie they have all been very successful. I think ever star wars movie has ended up being number 1 in box office for the year the movie came out. When it comes to inflation I don't think there is a fair way to judge things. There are just to many things that can make a difference. I mean the international market is bigger then it used to be and ticket prices are higher and you have IMAX. But at the same time you have things now that keep people from going to the movies like Netflix, video games ect. Also I don't know how many movies come out per year now compared to say when gone with the wind came out but I beat there are way more movies in a year now coming out compared to back then witch means you have more options for movies to go to. Because off those things if gone with the wind was out today I don't think it sales has many tickets has it did back then. The only fair comparesion really when it comes to movies is comparing movies that came out in the same year like comparing TFA to Jurassic world.
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It's a way of leveling the playing field in terms of comparison of older movies vs. movies of today.

And I do agree there are many factors contributing and going against them as you said television, video games, the internet as well as even the release of vhs/dvd/blu-ray. You can also bring up societal and financial differences. Gone with the Wind had average ticket prices of $0.23. Today the average ticket price is over $8.00.

The only way you could see Star Wars when it came out was in the theaters. It took 5 years for it to be released on VHS. A year before Jedi.

Even fast forward to the 90s. It sometimes took almost a year for theatrical releases to come to home video. Now if it's half a year, that's a long time.

Gone with the Wind's "epicness" paved the way for other movies. Yes maybe if Gone With the Wind was released today, it may not have done as well but it was a product of it's time, like Star Wars in 1977, Titanic in 1997 and Avatar in 2009.

If there was no Star Wars in 1977 and say TFA just came out, it might not have done as well.

I tend to agree that in terms of box office that it's not a perfect science to compare but it allows us to at least put how well some older movies did in perspective.
 
Writethru at Wednesday 5:43AM after Tuesday 11:07 AM Post: Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ appears to have demolished another record tonight. According to estimates, its total gross rose to an estimated $600.65M on Tuesday after posting another $29.3M. The franchise fan favorite dropped a mere 6% from Monday. Hot on Avatar‘s tail to become the highest grossing film of all time domestically, it is now the fastest film to $600M and, at this rate, should hit $700M this weekend and log fastest to that threshold as well.
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http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-600-million-hateful-eight-tuesday-previews-1201674026/
 
$600 million
Avengers 54 days
Jurassic World 36 days
Avatar 47 days
Titanic >234 days


$650
Jurassic World 104 days
Avatar 58 days
Titanic Rerelease
 
Erzengel said:
It's a way of leveling the playing field in terms of comparison of older movies vs. movies of today.

And I do agree there are many factors contributing and going against them as you said television, video games, the internet as well as even the release of vhs/dvd/blu-ray. You can also bring up societal and financial differences. Gone with the Wind had average ticket prices of $0.23. Today the average ticket price is over $8.00.

The only way you could see Star Wars when it came out was in the theaters. It took 5 years for it to be released on VHS. A year before Jedi.

Even fast forward to the 90s. It sometimes took almost a year for theatrical releases to come to home video. Now if it's half a year, that's a long time.

Gone with the Wind's "epicness" paved the way for other movies. Yes maybe if Gone With the Wind was released today, it may not have done as well but it was a product of it's time, like Star Wars in 1977, Titanic in 1997 and Avatar in 2009.

If there was no Star Wars in 1977 and say TFA just came out, it might not have done as well.

I tend to agree that in terms of box office that it's not a perfect science to compare but it allows us to at least put how well some older movies did in perspective.
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IMO, that is a very well thought out, cohesive statement. Yes, adjusted BO #s do provide "some" comparison, but doesn't really do a very good job of it for the reasons you state. What I would like to know is "How many tickets were purchased?" I think it strips away a layer (adjusted income) that doesn't need to be there. Let us know how many (or about how many) tickets were sold and we can have a discussion about social/economic factors than contribute to or cause a decrease in movie attendance. I think putting an adjusted dollar sign on movies obfuscates rather than clarifies matters.

As I've said, if it were a "fair" comparison, more than 3 movies in the last 16 years would have cracked the top 30. The Graduate made the top 30 (#21) and Spider-Man (2002) and The Return of the King did not. The Dark Knight just barely cracked the top 30 (#30) and will soon be pushed out of it by the Juggernaut.
 
Erzengel said:
$600 million
Avengers 54 days
Jurassic World 36 days
Avatar 47 days
Titanic >234 days


$650
Jurassic World 104 days
Avatar 58 days
Titanic Rerelease
Click to expand...

Mindblowing stats.
 
And this is all without China... Amazing.
 
China has a target to beat! Not going to let the US outdo you are you? :woot:
 
Iceman said:
That's cool. I was wondering if the (non-Disney) media there report much on how well it's doing at the moment or if people aren't really interested in that there or if the media favour local films etc.
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Yeah it's making news, headlines really there. Presales starting moving after the premiere on Sun so we should be able to get a clearer picture of its OW in a few days.

The social media attention is slightly overstated by the Reuters article. If you check out Weibo (Chinese Twitter) and Youku (Chinese YouTube) the attention and hits are centered on Lu Han-led media and the comments mainly about how good-looking and awesome he is. He was a former member of one of South Korea's leading boybands, and if you know K-pop, you know how rabid the legions of fans are local and overseas. They tag his stuff like crazy.

TFA will do gangbusters mind you, only because there's a huge appetite for big Hollywood movies. Don't think it'll beat F7 though. I don't see TFA having the same level of draw that the latter did for Chinese audiences. Reading some similar sentiment on Douban, the Chinese movie aggregate site, where it's currently rated 7.8, the lowest amongst all the Star Wars movies. So far.

http://movie.douban.com/subject_search?search_text=星球大战&cat=1002

Then again, BB8 could be the difference maker for a people who like cute. Seen more than a few "it's farking cute!" (roughly translated ahem) comments.
 
PacificBoy said:
Yeah it's making news, headlines really there. Presales starting moving after the premiere on Sun so we should be able to get a clearer picture of its OW in a few days.

The social media attention is slightly overstated by the Reuters article. If you check out Weibo (Chinese Twitter) and Youku (Chinese YouTube) the attention and hits are centered on Lu Han-led media and the comments mainly about how good-looking and awesome he is. He was a former member of one of South Korea's leading boybands, and if you know K-pop, you know how rabid the legions of fans are local and overseas. They tag his stuff like crazy.

TFA will do gangbusters mind you, only because there's a huge appetite for big Hollywood movies. Don't think it'll beat F7 though. I don't see TFA having the same level of draw that the latter did for Chinese audiences. Reading some similar sentiment on Douban, the Chinese movie aggregate site, where it's currently rated 7.8, the lowest amongst all the Star Wars movies. So far.

http://movie.douban.com/subject_search?search_text=星球大战&cat=1002

Then again, BB8 could be the difference maker for a people who like cute. Seen more than a few "it's farking cute!" (roughly translated ahem) comments.
Click to expand...
Thanks for that!

I thought you were from China? Maybe I got confused.

Seems like you always have good intel for there anyway haha.
 
Iceman said:
Thanks for that!

I thought you were from China? Maybe I got confused.

Seems like you always have good intel for there anyway haha.
Click to expand...

I'm Chinese but I'm not from there. Have ties and travel there often enough. I think I confused you because I interchange between 'here' and 'there' when referring to China. My bad! And I've never been interested in BO talk until TFA; it's like watching the stock market, but more fun. :drl:
 
@ERCboxoffice STAR WARS is at $627M int'l: UK ($116M) GER ($66M) FRA ($56M) OZ ($42M) JPN ($37M) ESP ($22M) MEX ($21M) ITA ($21M)

@BoxOffice With an estimated $37.7M overseas on Tuesday, STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS has grossed $627.4M overseas / $1.228B globally. #TheForceAwakens*
 
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