The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[InCali]

There is going to be a Star Wars movie every year.

Also, Marvel hasn't come close to selling the amount of tickets as Star Wars has. Adjusted for inflation, the 7 Star Wars films are miles ahead.

OK Darth. Relax....I like SW too. You can't really compare movies from 40 years ago to today's. The times they have a changed. There are reasons you can point to that would give movies today a disadvantage with regard to tickets sold. There's more out there today competing for the entertainment dollar, the rise of technology (premium costs probably actually keep people from attending more than one showing and home theater is a player now). Of course there's a rise in the international market that ANH, ESB, RotJ didn't have.

It's just a brave new world, but I wouldn't be too sure about the number of tickets Marvel v SW have sold. International markets give Marvel a big edge in that dept. If you are just talking domestic, it's possible. When I bought SW tickets way back when, they were very inexpensive compared to today and I would venture to say that actual inflation has been WAY outpaced by ticket price inflation. That means a movie costs more in real dollars today than it did back then. That will have a tendency to keep people out of theaters.

I think both franchises are awesome and are just doing business in different ways. I hope SW can do well beyond the saga. We'll see.

 

[Horhey]

Star Wars invented the modern day blockbuster and it has always been the most lucrative franchise of all time in terms of mass appeal and potential. Only Potter comes close, but sequels to that franchise won't gross much more than the originals have adjusted. It doesn't have the same type of fanbase or hype. MCU I see suffering similar problems after Infinity War.

You are looking at 5 billion minimum for this trilogy alone, and another 2 billion for all the spinoffs to come. Then the franchise needs a breather for sure. Go back to a Knights of the Old Republic trilogy, or another prequel, before doing 10-12. 10-12 needs to be another 30 plus year type of sequel.

I got my Star Wars and my Fallout and sex with no strings when I want it, with no end in sight. That's how you do!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

OK Darth. Relax....I like SW too. You can't really compare movies from 40 years ago to today's. The times they have a changed. There are reasons you can point to that would give movies today a disadvantage with regard to tickets sold. There's more out there today competing for the entertainment dollar, the rise of technology (premium costs probably actually keep people from attending more than one showing and home theater is a player now). Of course there's a rise in the international market that ANH, ESB, RotJ didn't have.

It's just a brave new world, but I wouldn't be too sure about the number of tickets Marvel v SW have sold. International markets give Marvel a big edge in that dept. If you are just talking domestic, it's possible. When I bought SW tickets way back when, they were very inexpensive compared to today and I would venture to say that actual inflation has been WAY outpaced by ticket price inflation. That means a movie costs more in real dollars today than it did back then. That will have a tendency to keep people out of theaters.

I think both franchises are awesome and are just doing business in different ways. I hope SW can do well beyond the saga. We'll see.

The reduction in domestic ticket sales is negated by the explosion of the international market and 3D. Avatar and Titanic didn't happen in the 70s and 80s, and adjusted, they are still top 10 films. If TFA makes over $2 bil WW, it will be in that ball park as well.

And it really isn't close. Star Wars made as much money as the Avengers did worldwide, domestically. Three others are in the top 15. Adjusted for inflation, all but AotC made a billion. In Star Wars case, it is over $2.5bil. That without premium formats, which change the ticket price significantly.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm

 

[Silver Surfer]

A $130M-$145M Friday & $250M-$275M Weekend!!!!!!!!!

4TH UPDATE WRITETHRU, FRIDAY 2PM: Distribution executives are in complete awe. They just can’t believe what they’re witnessing hour by hour.After shattering the box office industry’s preview night record with $57 million on Thursday night, Disney’s Star Wars: The Force Awakens set to knock over opening day and weekend records left and right. You can scratch out that $110M opening day we heard about earlier. Force Awakens Friday –which includes that $57M it made in Thursday previews– is between $130M-$145M per industry estimates (not Disney). This puts Force Awakens in an opening weekend range of $250M-$275M; a gross which sends Universal’s Jurassic World opening weekend record of $208.8M back to the stone age.

http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

 

[Tilapia]

900 billion domestic back in the cards? Avatar domestic is probably going down.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Marvel Studios will pull in between 1.6 and 2 billion each year in box office revenue.

LucasFilm will pull in around 1.6 billion on average.

Both are far above Pixar which annual box office revenue is nothing to sneeze at.

None of this includes home video, tv rights, or merchandise which also bring in billions.

Either way Disney is laughing all the way to the bank (since they own all three).

 

[PacificBoy]

Amazing numbers. I'm curious how TFA will fare in China and South Korea.

 

[Silver Surfer]

300 million has to be doable now, it has to be. 145 million opening day?

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

900 billion domestic back in the cards? Avatar domestic is probably going down.

1 billion domestic is a very real possibility which destroys Avatars domestic record (760 m).

With a 250 m opening, TFA would need terrible legs not to beat Avatar.

and with 95% on rottentomatoes and a mid-December release date, terrible legs are highly unlikely.

 

[Sithborg]

A $130M-$145M Friday & $250M-$275M Weekend!!!!!!!!!



http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

BY THE FORCE!!!!!

Get on the hype train, Darth. This is happening. I was honestly thinking $225 would be good. But my gosh. Let's see how high this baby can go.l

 

[Iceman]

This going crazy feels in line with the hype we're seeing (much more than recent record-breaker Jurassic World). It's a bit like TPM was but with the massive bonuses of great reviews across the board, no Jar Jar and no 5 year old Darth Vader.

 

[Silver Surfer]

"Those with access to grosses say Force Awakens has already grossed north of $43 million in matinee earnings, they believe the movie will take in north of $130 million for the day.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-force-849854

43 million in matinees? on a Friday? Gulp.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

"Those with access to grosses say Force Awakens has already grossed north of $43 million in matinee earnings, they believe the movie will take in north of $130 million for the day.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-star-wars-force-849854

43 million in matinees? on a Friday? Gulp.

They already made a $100m.

I will accept all the apologies for the board.

 

[danoyse]

This going crazy feels in line with the hype we're seeing (much more than recent record-breaker Jurassic World). It's a bit like TPM was but with the massive bonuses of great reviews across the board, no Jar Jar and no 5 year old Darth Vader.

And everyone I know who's seen is already planning multiple trips back. It's insane.

 

[Silver Surfer]

If it reaches 145 for the day, it will only have to do 85 and 70 million for Saturday and Sunday to reach 300 million. Book it.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

BY THE FORCE!!!!!

Get on the hype train, Darth. This is happening. I was honestly thinking $225 would be good. But my gosh. Let's see how high this baby can go.l

Get on? I am going to start driving this thing.

 

[Silver Surfer]

And everyone I know who's seen is already planning multiple trips back. It's insane.

And considering today was the last day of school? this Saturday and Sunday should get a boost. 300 million OW, yessir!

 

[Iceman]

And everyone I know who's seen is already planning multiple trips back. It's insane.

I have booked extra trips today with different people even before I'm due to see it the first time!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

You can't sustain that kind of business for basically 4 days. I'd love it to be true, but there has to be some kind of drop off.

 

[Sithborg]

So, Hobbit's record has already been devastated. This is going to be crazy fun.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

So, Hobbit's record has already been devastated. This is going to be crazy fun.

It is already half way to the weekend record.

 

[Iceman]

If the top end of the estimate ended up happening it would be about $54m more than the previous opening day record holder. $145m vs $91m.

 

[jmc]

You can't sustain that kind of business for basically 4 days. I'd love it to be true, but there has to be some kind of drop off.

Normally I'd agree with this statement, however it's clear there are circumstances at play here that are unprecedented. There are 9AM sessions at my local theatre that are close to sold out, even for massive films like Avengers or Harry Potter you'd be lucky to see the cinema half full that early in the day. Basically we're in uncharted waters here and what happens this weekend could completely rewrite the rulebook.

 

[flickchick85]

A $130M-$145M Friday & $250M-$275M Weekend!!!!!!!!!



http://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-force-awakens-box-office-thursday-night-previews-1201669166/

This is crazy and amazing.

 

[Iceman]

This is crazy and amazing.

Bonkers too!