The Force Awakens Early Star Wars 7 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Jonwo]

Its not completely irrelevent. Never has been. For instance in January and February in North America a chunk of the country is experiencing sub freezing temps and ****** weather and less people want to leave the house. And people are usually broke right after christmas. Some months are alwayd going to be better than others.

Avatar and Titanic are the exceptions, the drops for both films were incredible and noy even Star Wars could match that now because it's too frontloaded.

Weirdly, in some places like the UK, January does quite well because of all the award contenders are released then. Wolf of Wall Street was a huge hit in the UK for example as was The Theory of Everything. It'll be interesting to see if The Hateful Eight and The Revenant do good business against Star Wars, I can see it picking the adult audiences who had their fill of Star Wars or people simply not interested in it.

 

[danoyse]

Reading posts from the beginning of this thread now is hilarious.

I still dont believe SW7 will make more than 1.4 bil WW.

my bet is at 1,25 bil. WW

400-500 mil US (120-140 mil OW)
700-800 mil OS

the prequels rekt the franchise and the fanbase is not as big as people think. The GA doesnt really care about Star Wars.
(personally i liked the prequels better overall. episode 3 of the originals which is episode 6 now was really bad)

Comic book adaptations are the new thing.

Star Trek has a huge fanbase but it didnt really matter at the boxoffice.

episode 8 will have a better chance if 7 is good.

 

[I Am The Knight]

James Cameron is ______ right now

 

[mclay18]

Its not completely irrelevant. Never has been. For instance in January and February in North America a chunk of the country is experiencing sub freezing temps and ****** weather and less people want to leave the house. And people are usually broke right after christmas. Some months are always going to be better than others.

While this is apples-to-oranges, you have a film like American Sniper that expanded nationwide in mid-January. That film opened to summer-like numbers ($89M 3-day/$107M 4-day) and was able to sustain its momentum for several weekends. It made studios rethink their stance on January releases.

And let's not forget that March and April were originally dead months until Disney, WB, Universal and Lionsgate began experimenting by placing different movies and big sequels in those slots. It took several years and several big movies, but now they're seen as valid blockbuster months now.

People are going to see movies any time of the year now. I guarantee you Disney could open TFA in mid-January or February 2016 to gigantic numbers. I would wager they could nab a $150M+ opening weekend... that's how popular the SW brand is.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Darthskywalker and others always kept the faith. This movie is huge and it's very watchable and likable so I expect big things going forward as well.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

the prequels rekt the franchise and the fanbase is not as big as people think. The GA doesnt really care about Star Wars.

Reading posts from the beginning of this thread now is hilarious.

Does this guy still post here? Does he want to accept his "Wrongest Post in History" Award now or later?

 

[Snow Queen]

So, anyone who was making the claim "it's never going to beat Jurassic World's opening weekend" want to take back their sentiment?

 

[jmc]

As long as something over takes Jurassic World. I can't stand it that that glorified B-movie has the record.

 

[Solidus]

Reading posts from the beginning of this thread now is hilarious.

Yeah I saved this little one for a few years:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=28891447&postcount=813

 

[Deserana]

Wow I was never in this thread but it's interesting to see what people said. Its easy to say 6 months off TFA wouldn't be big but come on it was obvious that hype was gonna be huge for it at the time of release after the teaser hit.

 

[Snow Queen]

As long as something over takes Jurassic World. I can't stand it that that glorified B-movie has the record.

I was rather surprised it made so much. It wasn't awful or anything, I thought it was just mediocre. But clearly I'm in the minority on that one.

 

[Snow Queen]

Yeah I saved this little one for a few years:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showpost.php?p=28891447&postcount=813

I love reading posts like this with the benefit of hindsight. Remember when a bunch of people were freaking out over BB-8 and saying he was the new Jar Jar? Might not have been this site but still.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

I was rather surprised it made so much. It wasn't awful or anything, I thought it was just mediocre. But clearly I'm in the minority on that one.

I thought it was disappointing too. But it never even looked that great to me to begin with. It ended up being really boring to me and I hated the useless subplot with the kids. Definitely not worth the records it set

 

[Iceman]

Darthskywalker and others always kept the faith. This movie is huge and it's very watchable and likable so I expect big things going forward as well.

I thought Darth just got on the Hype train today! Although he is now the driver so that counts for something. t:

 

[Mysteryman]

I think it is clear.
People Still Love Star Wars, they just wanted the story to move forward instead of back.

 

[jmc]

I was rather surprised it made so much. It wasn't awful or anything, I thought it was just mediocre. But clearly I'm in the minority on that one.

It actually baffles me that it made so much.

 

[Asharad]

I thought it was disappointing too. But it never even looked that great to me to begin with. It ended up being really boring to me and I hated the useless subplot with the kids. Definitely not worth the records it set

I thought you were talking about TFA! I had to trace the thread back to Jurasic World. t:

 

[Solidus]

I love reading posts like this with the benefit of hindsight. Remember when a bunch of people were freaking out over BB-8 and saying he was the new Jar Jar? Might not have been this site but still.

Oh yeah. Many were matter of fact that this film would do good, but not that great.

 

[NotSoLongAgo]

I thought you were talking about TFA! I had to trace the thread back to Jurasic World. t:

Oh hell no, I loved TFA! Breath of fresh air to the franchise

 

[Iceman]

Wow I was never in this thread but it's interesting to see what people said. Its easy to say 6 months off TFA wouldn't be big but come on it was obvious that hype was gonna be huge for it at the time of release after the teaser hit.

The quality of the film along with the reception by critics are huge contributors. If you swap what this has now with Ultron's more middling reception things would be different (still big, just not huge). Everyone will always come back for Star Wars done right. But if I and many other more jaded fans had heard that this was another TPM I wouldn't have seen it at all (well until cable).

 

[Deserana]

I think it is clear.
People Still Love Star Wars, they just wanted the story to move forward instead of back.

They clearly moved it forward they just used some old plot points to do it. It's obvious Ep 8 isn't gonna be a rehash of anything before and I'm sure people will see that.

 

[mclay18]

Darthskywalker and others always kept the faith. This movie is huge and it's very watchable and likable so I expect big things going forward as well.

The sky is the limit for this movie at this point.

I could see it narrowly eclipsing Avatar domestically, especially with the goodwill towards the franchise and its positive WOM from critics and audiences.

Still, that opening day number... I'm still shocked.

 

[danoyse]

I love reading posts like this with the benefit of hindsight. Remember when a bunch of people were freaking out over BB-8 and saying he was the new Jar Jar? Might not have been this site but still.

That’s right, I forgot about that!!!

 

[mclay18]

BB8 being the new Jar-Jar?

What the hell were people thinking?

 

[danoyse]

BB8 being the new Jar-Jar?

What the hell were people thinking?

Very first teaser. People flipped out over him for some silly reason...