Election 2020: Voting Numbers Tracking Thread

[MessiahDecoy123]

This thread is just for tracking the voting numbers for the general election.

 

[InCali]

The latest poll in PA shows Trump has "cut into" Biden's lead there from about 6 to 4%. Please remember that this is a single poll and should be taken no more seriously than if it appeared to widen to 8%. Keep an eye on the trends rather than a poll at a single point in time. Polls have margins of error built in and the + or - 2% is well within that range.

 

[mclay18]

NC will be ahead of curve on tallying votes on election night

 

[InCali]

NC will be ahead of curve on tallying votes on election night

So will FL which is why we may get an early Biden win. If either goes for Biden, Trump is basically toast.

 

[mclay18]

Over a quarter of our registered voters have already cast their ballots. It wouldn't surprise me if total turnout here in NC was 65% or higher once the polls close on Election Night.

 

[mclay18]

 

[InCali]

Over a quarter of our registered voters have already cast their ballots. It wouldn't surprise me if total turnout here in NC was 65% or higher once the polls close on Election Night.

That would be a WOW and a boost to Cunningham and Biden. I've said it before, but if Trump can't keep NC, I don't see how he wins.

 

[mclay18]

That would be a WOW and a boost to Cunningham and Biden. I've said it before, but if Trump can't keep NC, I don't see how he wins.

Cunningham’s text affair barely made a dent in polling, tens of thousands of ballots were already cast before this emerged. And voters are mostly “Tillis has to go with Trump” so they’re voting for Cal.

The ones clutching their pearls were, yet again, the Trump voters who voted red. Everyone else doesn’t care.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Washington Post - The U.S. has already hit 89% of total 2016 early voting
At least 42.1 million have voted nationwide, and there are still 13 days until Election Day

2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics
Total Early Votes: 43,161,277 • Mail Ballots: 31,259,017 • In-Person Votes: 11,902,260

Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

 

[mclay18]

33.34% of registered NC voters (2.4 million) have already voted.

I think we'll hit the 50% mark by the time early voting wraps up.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

The Washington Post - The U.S. has hit 100% of total 2016 early voting

Early voting is available in a lot more states than 2016 so that boosts the total.

 

[Steyin]

What are people's thoughts on Insider Monkey's predictions? They paint a pretty slim chance for Biden.

 

[Iceman]

Over a quarter of our registered voters have already cast their ballots. It wouldn't surprise me if total turnout here in NC was 65% or higher once the polls close on Election Night.

Good. A high turnout should favour Biden.

 

[Dark Raven]

 

[InCali]

So, I'm looking at the latest polls updated on 538 just a few minutes to go and the numbers are remarkably consistent to what we've seen; although there appears to be a slight shift to Biden.

Wisconsin - up 9
Pennsylvania - up 8
Michigan - up 10
Georgia - Even

National polls show Biden up 11 to 13 points. This poll (USC Dornsife) has consistently been a little on the high side of other polls, but that doesn't necessarily make it wrong.

The latest poll also show Ossoff up by 1 for one of the senate races in Georgia (University of Georgia).

Other than Georgia, these numbers look to be a little bit on the high side for Biden, but could be showing some movement.

 

[mclay18]

Early voting could hit record-smashing 100 million by Election Day

 

[InCali]

Early voting could hit record-smashing 100 million by Election Day

That would be almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2016. The real question is "how many of these voters didn't vote in 2016?"

 

[Iceman]

Early voting could hit record-smashing 100 million by Election Day

Wow! That’s a huge portion of the country.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Good. A high turnout should favour Biden.

High turnout before election day = Good.

On election day = Not so good.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

What are people's thoughts on Insider Monkey's predictions? They paint a pretty slim chance for Biden.

I have no clue who Insider Monkey is. Do they have a strong track record? What do they base their forecast on?

 

[Steyin]

I have no clue who Insider Monkey is. Do they have a strong track record? What do they base their forecast on?

They correctly predicted Trump upsetting Hillary from what I remember. They mainly use the 538 poll numbers but look into many factors that aren't taken into consideration for polling. I saw their recent articles pop up and thought I recognized the name from 2016 but haven't seen them discussed here.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

They correctly predicted Trump upsetting Hillary from what I remember. They mainly use the 538 poll numbers but look into many factors that aren't taken into consideration for polling. I saw their recent articles pop up and thought I recognized the name from 2016 but haven't seen them discussed here.

Well... they must have stopped using FiveThirtyEight's numbers.

 

[Iceman]

High turnout before election day = Good.

On election day = Not so good.

True, although I just think Trump has carved out his base and decided he isn’t even going to try to appeal to those in the middle. I have a suspicion the excess of people who turn out after his own base might be tempted to switch.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

True, although I just think Trump has carved out his base and decided he isn’t even going to try to appeal to those in the middle. I have a suspicion the excess of people who turn out after his own base might be tempted to switch.

I still expect undecides at this point to break in mass for Trump. There is no reason to be undecided now unless you want to vote for Trump.

That said, with the wave of early votes apparently coming from Democrats, chances are the vote totals on election day will skew Trump, even if it is only marginally.

 

[mclay18]

That would be almost 80% of the total votes cast in 2016. The real question is "how many of these voters didn't vote in 2016?"

Here in NC, 24% of those ballots cast here (out of 3.1 million) did not vote in 2016. That would make it 744,000 votes at this moment.

If there are similar numbers in the Rust Belt and the Sun Belt, that's not good news for Republicans.