Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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OK. Since this movie so called getting made and assuming Fox really wants to make a great movie and invests a budget of $150 mil or more and recognizing that the movie business is a Profit business first what do you guys think this movie is gonna gross??

My Predictions

Domestically
85 Million
International
50 Million

Looks like A bust to me....

But what do you guys think
 
Generally speaking any sequel that gets announced before the first film should be taken with a pinch of salt, and the longer the announcement happens before the release of the first film the more skepticism we should have towards it. Now if it happens maybe a month before initial release then its pretty safe as it means the studio think they have a real hit on their hands. Avengers can probably be considered an exception as they have a lot of money behind them as well as all of the previous films and characters building them up. But in the end if the MCU was to see a big slump even Avengers could be cancelled.

To add to this, the MCU right now is much more stable, planning wise, than it once was. The MAJORITY of early Marvel Studios in-development films didn't happen (Runaways, Master of Kung-Fu, Ka-Zar, etc.).
 
OK. Since this movie so called getting made and assuming Fox really wants to make a great movie and invests a budget of $150 mil or more and recognizing that the movie business is a Profit business first what do you guys think this movie is gonna gross??

My Predictions

Domestically
85 Million
International
50 Million

Looks like A bust to me....

But what do you guys think

It will probably make way more than 50 million dollars internationally. That said, if it does that poorly you can stick a fork in any future Fox FF films. I suggest waiting a bit for predictions in light of recent events. The will-they-won't-they going on with the 3D will affect the total, as will Fox's scheduling with Hitman worldwide.
 
Generally speaking any sequel that gets announced before the first film should be taken with a pinch of salt, and the longer the announcement happens before the release of the first film the more skepticism we should have towards it. Now if it happens maybe a month before initial release then its pretty safe as it means the studio think they have a real hit on their hands. Avengers can probably be considered an exception as they have a lot of money behind them as well as all of the previous films and characters building them up. But in the end if the MCU was to see a big slump even Avengers could be cancelled.

Absolutely. And not only was it highly suspicious that they announced it a couple months before filming even started, but if you recall, they announced it on March 21 of 2014.

Why is that significant? Because on March 14 of 2014, Bleeding Cool published their story that Fox was looking to replace Trank.

So it seemed obvious at the time that the announcement of the sequel date was much less about the sequel and much more about damage control and showing people that they really were going to make an FF film. "See?!?! We have a date for the sequel and everything. That shows we have complete faith in Josh Trank and no concerns at all that he's going to screw this up so badly that he'll never work in Hollywood again."
 
Hehe yes, I remember the days before the filming started when the only time Fox ever released any piece of news about the production was whenever a story came out which put into doubt the possibility of the production happening.
 
Absolutely. And not only was it highly suspicious that they announced it a couple months before filming even started, but if you recall, they announced it on March 21 of 2014.

Why is that significant? Because on March 14 of 2014, Bleeding Cool published their story that Fox was looking to replace Trank.

So it seemed obvious at the time that the announcement of the sequel date was much less about the sequel and much more about damage control and showing people that they really were going to make an FF film. "See?!?! We have a date for the sequel and everything. That shows we have complete faith in Josh Trank and no concerns at all that he's going to screw this up so badly that he'll never work in Hollywood again."

And so many people bought it hook, line, and sinker.
 
And so many people bought it hook, line, and sinker.

Yeah, I have actually seen some of these youtubers (was it the AMC guys?) pointing to the sequel date as evidence that the rumors about problems during production weren't true.

Uh . . . wait a minute . . . the sequel was announced before production, so how could it offer any information about how production went.:huh:
 
Yeah, I have actually seen some of these youtubers (was it the AMC guys?) pointing to the sequel date as evidence that the rumors about problems during production weren't true.

Uh . . . wait a minute . . . the sequel was announced before production, so how could it offer any information about how production went.:huh:

I think the AMC guys are discouraged from being too negative on any films since they are basically doing promotions for a theatre chain. They don't want to turn people away from paying them for tickets. I heard Campea hint at something like that in the past, where he wanted to trash a movie but had to wait for it to leave theaters before he could really stop pulling the punches.
 
I think the AMC guys are discouraged from being too negative on any films since they are basically doing promotions for a theatre chain. They don't want to turn people away from paying them for tickets. I heard Campea hint at something like that in the past, where he wanted to trash a movie but had to wait for it to leave theaters before he could really stop pulling the punches.

Yes and no. They only withhold negative opinions during the movie's heavy promotion period (release week window). The film you are referring to when they withheld negative opinions was Transformers 4. If it is long before the promotion, then they will not hold back on their disinterest. For example, Campea makes not effort to hide his disinterest in the Power Rangers film planned.

I feel the reason AMC, or more specifically Campea in particular is such a crusader for this film is because he is

1. Not a fan of the FF
2. He wants to prove a point to "naysayers" that the film doesn't have to be like the source material to be good
3. He himself wants to vindicate his rule that any film can still be good until we see it

I personally believe if Campea is excited for this film, he can be, but I think he needs to dial back his expectations, as he seems to be under the impression that things are going swimmingly.

There was a time I was like him and I was mildly interested in where they were taking the film. These recent reports (and the mediocre 2nd trailer) have me expecting the worst.
 
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Yes and no. They only withhold negative opinions during the movie's heavy promotion period (release week window). The film you are referring to when they withheld negative opinions was Transformers 4. If it is long before the promotion, then they will not hold back on their disinterest. For example, Campea makes not effort to hide his disinterest in the Power Rangers film planned.

I feel the reason AMC, or more specifically Campea in particular is such a crusader for this film is because he is

1. Not a fan of the FF
2. He wants to prove a point to "naysayers" that the film doesn't have to be like the source material to be good
3. He himself wants to vindicate his rule that any film can still be good until we see it

I personally believe if Campea is excited for this film, he can be, but I think he needs to dial back his expectations, as he seems to be under the impression that things are going swimmingly.

There was a time I was like him and I was mildly interested in where they were taking the film. These recent reports (and the mediocre 2nd trailer) have me expecting the worst.

Gotcha, that makes sense. For what it's worth though I think I've heard him say he's a big fan of the FF, am I mistaken there?
 
IMO, Campea is (counter-intuitively) both a disingenuous corporate shill... and someone who likes the attention he receives from taking "controversial" (read: nonsensical) positions just for the sake of notoriety.

For the longest time, he was against GOTG because they didn't choose his personal fancast (Nathan Fillion) and instead went with Chris Pratt as Star-Lord. Why anyone would give his BS even a shred of credence is beyond me.

Maybe some of the completely out there rumors (sexually harassing Kate Mara, was/is undergoing rehab for a nasty drug habit, etc.) were fabricated and/or embellished, but almost everything we've been hearing for months and months about how Trank completely and utterly mishandled FFINO much to the ire of Fox has been accurate. And even that, while I'm not going to believe the more extreme rumors without some actual evidence, I'm not ready to completely rule them out either. The guy really seems to be a complete nutter.
 
Whenever I've watched any of those youtube chat-fests, it seemed clear that the people on there knew less about this production than most of the people here and FAR less about Fantastic Four in general.

If someone hasn't been paying any attention and only has a casual interest, they may pick up something here or there, but there doesn't seem to be any real value to anybody who has been making their own effort to follow what's going on.
 
There was someone on a ScreenJunkies video that seemed to hate Fantastic Four overall, he said that rock monsters and people who can stretch their body like that are goofy and unneeded. That was like the first person i've seen saying that FF movies shouldn't be made no matter the studio lol.
 
So early tracking suggests 65 million for the opening weekend. Not bad.
 
So early tracking suggests 65 million for the opening weekend. Not bad.

Early trackings that were 40 mill off with AOU, and have Minions opening lower than Fantastic 4. Sure, lets go with that.
 
Early trackings that were 40 mill off with AOU, and have Minions opening lower than Fantastic 4. Sure, lets go with that.

Maybe they're forty million dollars over on Fant4stic, too. :p

I do wonder if they made that prediction without hearing that the 3D could possibly be gone. After all of the weirdness from last weekend, I'm not sure early tracking will be very accurate here. We don't even know if 3D screens will have it, if the reshot footage meshes with the previous footage, if another journalist is going to come forward with Trank stuff, etc.
 
So early tracking suggests 65 million for the opening weekend. Not bad.

It's too early for tracking to be reliable. The Wolverine was supposedly tracking at 70-80 million and ended up with 53 million, which is less than FC even with 3D.
 
I do wonder if the early tracking from whoever that lot are had indicated a terrible opening, if anyone would have bothered to post that?

And if they had, would the pro people hereabouts have put much stock in it?

I know I wouldn't one way or another with any 'tracking' (lets be honest, it's a friggin guess) this far out. Maybe after some press screenings and industry buzz on the film 'as seen' starts doing the rounds, but right now a guess is a guess.

Any port in a storm I suppose...
 
I do wonder if the early tracking from whoever that lot are had indicated a terrible opening, if anyone would have bothered to post that?

And if they had, would the pro people hereabouts have put much stock in it?

I know I wouldn't one way or another with any 'tracking' (lets be honest, it's a friggin guess) this far out. Maybe after some press screenings and industry buzz on the film 'as seen' starts doing the rounds, but right now a guess is a guess.

Any port in a storm I suppose...

I've been saying since that whole mysterious disappearing 3D logo thing that it's too early for decent tracking. After last weekend, there are too many variables in play.
 
I've been saying since that whole mysterious disappearing 3D logo thing that it's too early for decent tracking. After last weekend, there are too many variables in play.

I've mainly been following AoU, Ant Man, Daredevil, etc., but I'd like to see a good FF movie. Somehow this one isn't grabbing me so far, but, like I say, I haven't been following it too closely.

Unlike many, I rather liked the first 2 FF movies. I can see a LOT to complain about, but I was happy to see them brought to the screen. I thought Chris Evans in particular was really good (but he had the best part and the best lines too so there's that).

I'm not sure I get the african american Johnny Storm business. Marvel should have a lot more characters of color and women in lead roles (I'm particularly interested in seeing what they do with Carol Danvers/Captain Marvel), but it's sort of hard to re-imagine characters from the comics. I haven't read a ton of comics recently so maybe there was a human torch who was african american? Is the new dude the adopted brother of Sue? Vice-versa?

Anyway, I really liked the FF and have a ton of their old comics (mid-sixties). I'll go see this first day because I love comic book movies, but I'm really not sure what to expect.

If you'd like to check out my old FF comics, I have my favorites posted at:

http://www.cloudvistas.com/my-comic-book-collection/photosmarvel-comics/photosthe-fantastic-four/

There are also Avengers and DD comics posted. I'll post more in the future.
 
I've mainly been following AoU, Ant Man, Daredevil, etc., but I'd like to see a good FF movie. Somehow this one isn't grabbing me so far, but, like I say, I haven't been following it too closely.

Unlike many, I rather liked the first 2 FF movies. I can see a LOT to complain about, but I was happy to see them brought to the screen. I thought Chris Evans in particular was really good (but he had the best part and the best lines too so there's that).

I'm not sure I get the african american Johnny Storm business. Marvel should have a lot more characters of color and women in lead roles (I'm particularly interested in seeing what they do with Carol Danvers/Captain Marvel), but it's sort of hard to re-imagine characters from the comics. I haven't read a ton of comics recently so maybe there was a human torch who was african american? Is the new dude the adopted brother of Sue? Vice-versa?

Anyway, I really liked the FF and have a ton of their old comics (mid-sixties). I'll go see this first day because I love comic book movies, but I'm really not sure what to expect.

If you'd like to check out my old FF comics, I have my favorites posted at:

http://www.cloudvistas.com/my-comic-book-collection/photosmarvel-comics/photosthe-fantastic-four/

There are also Avengers and DD comics posted. I'll post more in the future.

No, Johnny has really not changed in overall look throughout the decades of F4.

Sue is the one who is adopted. Franklin Storm is black in the movie.
 
I do wonder if the early tracking from whoever that lot are had indicated a terrible opening, if anyone would have bothered to post that?

And if they had, would the pro people hereabouts have put much stock in it?

I know I wouldn't one way or another with any 'tracking' (lets be honest, it's a friggin guess) this far out. Maybe after some press screenings and industry buzz on the film 'as seen' starts doing the rounds, but right now a guess is a guess.

Any port in a storm I suppose...

I have always viewed a Prometheus type run as a best case scenario.
 
I have always viewed a Prometheus type run as a best case scenario.

Not even getting close to that. Doesn't have the cast star power, doesn't have the director pedigree, doesn't have the hype behind it and a hugely popular and successful 36 year old franchise behind it.

Prometheus made 51 million opening weekend, 126 Dom, 276 For, 403 WW.

No way in hell it does that. Or probably even close to it.
 
It's not in our interest for a superhero movie to fail. It hurts the genre as a whole. If Fantastic Four or Batman/Superman fail, people get superhero fatigue and when Ant-Man comes out the response is "Another superhero movie? Ugh.":hmr:
 
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