Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

[Dr Tactics]

OK. Since this movie so called getting made and assuming Fox really wants to make a great movie and invests a budget of $150 mil or more and recognizing that the movie business is a Profit business first what do you guys think this movie is gonna gross??

My Predictions

Domestically
85 Million
International
50 Million

Looks like A bust to me....

But what do you guys think

 

[Mr. Dent]

$270m Fantastic Flop

 

[XtremelyBaneful]

why are they even rebooting it? the first series did well at the box office

I say just recast human torch (for obvious reasons) and go on with the story.

 

[Mr.M]

150 Dom max, maybe 175 with 3D. 300-350 WW max. So if they can work on a 120 million dollar budget, it can potentially turn a small profit. But nobody wants a 120 million dollar FF reboot.

 

[Zarex]

The three films I used for comparison are:

The Wolverine (last FOX superhero film)
$133 million domestic
$282 million overseas

$415 million overall

X-Men: First Class (last FOX superhero team (pseudo) reboot)
$146 million domestic
$207 million overseas

$353 million overall

FF: Rise of the Silver Surfer (Last FOX FF film)
$131 million domestic
$157 million overseas

$288 million overall

Given that this is a reboot of a much less successful series, and what looks to be fewer recognizable actors in the leads, I can't see the film getting anywhere close to the XM:FC numbers. It may even struggle to reach the limited success of the 2007 sequel, which did so well it put the series on hiatus. I'm thinking the reboot will do about 25% less than ROTSS domestically. But as seen with The Wolverine (and other films such as Pacific Rim) overseas totals are increasing in importance. I gave the film a 25% raise over ROTSS, so that the domestic totals are exactly one half of the overseas returns.

Fantastic Four: Let's Kill the Franchise!
$98 million domestic
$196 million overseas

$294 million overall

And that's my optimistic projection. With no merchandising revenue for this attempt, FOX is really going to have to slash the budget to make this work. Perhaps a "think piece" in which the First Family simply "feels" stretched out, invisible, afire and brutish?

 

[Dr Tactics]

All very realistic numbers (Mine not so much lol) peoples... Now I Need to hear from the Fox guys. If they're gonna make this movie and won't dare let these rights revert then they must be making some money on this one.. I mean what do you Fox guys think is the financial plan in respect to the FF.

Cyclopswasright, Dr Cosmic, etc I'm calling on you..

 

[Dr Tactics]

Opa Corman Style(Doin the dancee)!!!

 

[Mr.M]

All very realistic numbers (Mine not so much lol) peoples... Now I Need to hear from the Fox guys. If they're gonna make this movie and won't dare let these rights revert then they must be making some money on this one.. I mean what do you Fox guys think is the financial plan in respect to the FF.

Cyclopswasright, Dr Cosmic, etc I'm calling on you..

I think they'd pretty much acknowledge the projections in here, even though we are not exactly box office experts here. But a lot of it is common sense. This would do FC numbers best case scenario. But can they do it on FC budget? My answer would be no, absolutely not. Certainly not something that will be a hit at least.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

This would be a long term investment for Fox. It's about making a good FF film and then (hopefully) building towards a big payoff in future sequels. I'm not a fan of the film's supposed June release date being squeezed between the two comic films that will probably eclipse 1.5 billion. It could be quickly forgotten.

 

[Dr Tactics]

This would be a long term investment for Fox. It's about making a good FF film and then (hopefully) building towards a big payoff in future sequels. I'm not a fan of the film's supposed June release date being squeezed between the two comic films that will probably eclipse 1.5 billion. It could be quickly forgotten.

Hmmm Interesting.. So the thinking is to take the loss and if they make a good film, they'll turn around and make a better profit from the sequel.. Thats real risky and kind of foolish move IMO (especially when they have a Marvel property thats proven in the X-Men). But, they do have the precedence that was BB and TDK (After the Joel Shumacher B&R) in which TDK hit it out the park. But that was the Iconic Batman. The FF aren't on that level.. Thats a lot for Fox to live up to... I guess we'll see what they do..

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I'm going to wait till they at least cast the movie before calling this one.

 

[metaphysician]

Honestly, I think 300M WW is being generous. The Fantastic Four brand doesn't exactly have any global exposure, the only precedent is a couple of mediocre movies 7+ years ago, it won't have the budget to compete on spectacle, and it has a pretty bad release timeslot.

I think Green Lantern numbers are entirely on the table.

 

[A Dollar Short]

Assuming the film is good I think it can do $350-400 million WW. The biggest thing going against it imo is that release date (which I assume is flexible and will be moved). 2015 is already so bloated, Fox should skip the year in favor of 2016. Just because a few people on the internet monitor the progress of this film daily in hopes that it bombs doesn't mean it's going to happen.

 

[Mr.M]

I also believe 2016 is the better play. They'd probably have to move X-Men:Apocalypse back though, and that's perfectly feasible since there is no reason to deviate from the 3 year gaps to maintain "event" status. I also believe Fox can negotiate an extension quite feasibly. Everyone was convinced the Supes reboot had to be released by the end of 2012 due to the pending lawsuit against WB, but WB somehow pushed that back 6 months and settled the suit. Obviously, Disney litigating Fox is a different animal than the Shuster Estate, but where there's a will (translation:$$$) there is a way. 2015 is automatically going to put this in Green Lantern type danger and that speaks nothing to the quality of the film.

 

[metaphysician]

I also believe Fox can negotiate an extension quite feasibly.

And why would you believe that? The last time there was any talk of an extension was when Fox *turned down an offer flat*.

 

[Tymminator]

Honestly, I think 300M WW is being generous. The Fantastic Four brand doesn't exactly have any global exposure, the only precedent is a couple of mediocre movies 7+ years ago, it won't have the budget to compete on spectacle, and it has a pretty bad release timeslot.

I think Green Lantern numbers are entirely on the table.

Easily.

 

[PaulRom]

Assuming the film is good I think it can do $350-400 million WW. The biggest thing going against it imo is that release date (which I assume is flexible and will be moved). 2015 is already so bloated, Fox should skip the year in favor of 2016. Just because a few people on the internet monitor the progress of this film daily in hopes that it bombs doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Pretty much.

 

[zeptron]

With the date they currently have the movie set the come out on, it may not do very good. It comes out in between Avengers 2 and Batman vs Superman. Also comes out the same day as Pixar's Inside Out. So that's gonna cost them the family audience. And Terminator 5 and Jurassic World are also coming out around that time as well.

Another thing it has going against it, is that it's a reboot of a franchise most people consider to be meh. The Incredible Hulk underperformed at the box office for pretty much this reason. Being a reboot of a movie most people still had a bad taste in their mouths from. Coming out in between Iron Man and The Dark Knight. And movies such as Hancock, Wall-e, and Wanted coming out during the following weeks.

 

[starscream22]

Some people just wanna watch it burn.

 

[starscream22]

Assuming the film is good I think it can do $350-400 million WW. The biggest thing going against it imo is that release date (which I assume is flexible and will be moved). 2015 is already so bloated, Fox should skip the year in favor of 2016. Just because a few people on the internet monitor the progress of this film daily in hopes that it bombs doesn't mean it's going to happen.

This right here is wishful thinking. Fox's deadline is 2015 and Marvel isn't giving any exceptions. This reboot is between a rock in a hard place and that's not even including Avengers or Superman/Batman. So with nothing but negative casting rumors and countless script rewrites on the same day as a Pixar film releases is box office suicide.

It'll be the "After Earth" 2015 if anything.

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

Just because a few people on the internet monitor the progress of this film daily in hopes that it bombs doesn't mean it's going to happen.

With the date they currently have the movie set the come out on, it may not do very good. It comes out in between Avengers 2 and Batman vs Superman. Also comes out the same day as Pixar's Inside Out. So that's gonna cost them the family audience. And Terminator 5 and Jurassic World are also coming out around that time as well.

Another thing it has going against it, is that it's a reboot of a franchise most people consider to be meh. The Incredible Hulk underperformed at the box office for pretty much this reason. Being a reboot of a movie most people still had a bad taste in their mouths from. Coming out in between Iron Man and The Dark Knight. And movies such as Hancock, Wall-e, and Wanted coming out during the following weeks.

Your Hulk comparison is very well thought out

2015 is a tough year. As long as it makes enough to garner a sequel people should be happy.

I think Fox are gonna aim the tone of the F4 more for kids now than it's other franchise as that's where the money comes from now.

I'd estimate around $300 million overall given that Fox superhero movies have been on the rise in both numbers and quality and it's been a while since the last F4 film and the possible younger cast could bring in the Tween crowd and differentiate it from most other CBMs.

 

[Dr Tactics]

Your Hulk comparison is very well thought out

2015 is a tough year. As long as it makes enough to garner a sequel people should be happy.

I think Fox are gonna aim the tone of the F4 more for kids now than it's other franchise as that's where the money comes from now.

I'd estimate around $300 million overall given that Fox superhero movies have been on the rise in both numbers and quality and it's been a while since the last F4 film and the possible younger cast could bring in the Tween crowd and differentiate it from most other CBMs.

I was waiting for this..

You do realize that B.O losses are calculated (Industry Standard) by TWG / 2 -PB (TWG=World Wide Gross PB= Production Budget) so If the PB was (as most would agree for a good FF Film) $150 Mill upwards that this film will, at best break even( or bomb miserably)? and thats not even including marketing costs so that people would actually know about the films release..

So why are they making this movie again?? Not to make their shareholders happy for sure. Numbers never lie so I'll keep my hope alive. Marvel knows these numbers also so thats why there won't be a deal and If Fox is smart there won't be a FF film June 2015

Edit: Though they, Fox could recoup some of the losses through DVD/Blu Ray thats it because they have no merchandising revenue without Marvel's Permission (In which Marvel may grant for a outragious price that probably wouldn't be worth it)

 

[CyclopsWasRight]

I was waiting for this.

You didn't have to, three other posters had around the same estimate

 

[Dr Tactics]

You didn't have to, three other posters had around the same estimate

While true, the question remains to those who ridicule the ones that cling to hope that these rights revert back to Marvel is Why is Fox making this FF Movie when they have a successful X-Men universe to build and profit from less the risk of a flop... In your (anyone's) opinion do they have anything to really gain in "Keeping the rights from Marvel"?

You and some others seem more than convinced that this movie will begin production and this June 2015 set date is in stone while I (and some others) doubt this because the potential B.O numbers point to a certified BOMB

 

[Zarex]

While true, the question remains to those who ridicule the ones that cling to hope that these rights revert back to Marvel is Why is Fox making this FF Movie when they have a successful X-Men universe to build and profit from less the risk of a flop... In your (anyone's) opinion do they have anything to really gain in "Keeping the rights from Marvel"?

You and some others seem more than convinced that this movie will begin production and this June 2015 set date is in stone while I (and some others) doubt this because the potential B.O numbers point to a certified BOMB

FOX may be waiting for the DOFP release before announcing that the FF reboot isn't happening. The studio can then announce that the film's (presumed) success has moved them to put all of their energies into the X-Men family of characters. They can spin it that the FF's cancellation was due to Days success, not because the studio couldn't get the reboot numbers to work. Further details regardinthe Kinberg/Millar/Singer "X-panded Universe" will be forthcoming.