Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I would too. As far as I'm concerned GL is finished, it wasn't good enough for me to want a sequel. WB had their chance and they blew it by hiring the wrong screenwriters and director.

 

[Octoberist]

WB needed at least 60 million on the opening weekend to greenlitgt a sequel according to this article:

'Green Lantern': 5 Lessons for Hollywood bit.ly/kTs17z

 

[Rock Sexton]

WB needed at least 60 million on the opening weekend to greenlitgt a sequel according to this article:

'Green Lantern': 5 Lessons for Hollywood bit.ly/kTs17z

I don't see how that is possible. We're talking about a movie that landed somewhere between $350 and $400 million between marketing and production budget. They would've need at least a $90 million opening. Consider the movie really only had 2 weeks to capitalize before Transformers 3 curb stomps it.

 

[Octoberist]

Hence why they're not greenlighting anything at this point. It's embarrassing actually..

 

[Poni_Boy]

Hence why they're not greenlighting anything at this point. It's embarrassing actually..

Studio planned for a $65 - $70 mil opener (which they set low on purpose to claim a big victory "when" it passed). Then revised it to $55 after the critical barrage.

 

[Octoberist]

Have about the fate of future DC projects or was the formation if DC Ent a waste of time and money.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Have about the fate of future DC projects or was the formation if DC Ent a waste of time and money.

IMO a waste of money. They were trying to mimic Marvel Studios' formula without following it to the letter. Would have been better to just leave it all under WB without the middle management crap

 

[Octoberist]

I'm just afraid now they might meddle directly with DC comics.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I'm just afraid now they might meddle directly with DC comics.

I haven't heard about that happening yet, but it is a possibility since WB now has creative control. I'll keep my ear to the ground

 

[BigThor]

To sum things up simply:

Thor is a success

GL is a huge failure if not outright bomb

X-Men: First Class is a disappointment

This

 

[KalMart]

Studio planned for a $65 - $70 mil opener (which they set low on purpose to claim a big victory "when" it passed). Then revised it to $55 after the critical barrage.

And it made, what, 53?

 

[Poni_Boy]

This

I still don't understand how people state that X-Men First Class is a financial or critical disappointment; personal opinions about the film aside.

 

[KalMart]

I still don't understand how people state that X-Men First Class is a financial or critical disappointment; personal opinions about the film aside.

Because it did better than GL?

 

[Krimasen]

Though GL was a big failure in a variety of ways, I'm pretty sure they would correct all that in a sequel. The sequel would probably be cheaper than this one, but they would (hopefully) get better talent behind the camera and make a better movie. This one was a failure, but I doubt the franchise is dead.

 

[Mysteryman]

Dead?
No.
Frozen in a state of Suspended Animation?
Most likely.

 

[Rock Sexton]

Though GL was a big failure in a variety of ways, I'm pretty sure they would correct all that in a sequel. The sequel would probably be cheaper than this one, but they would (hopefully) get better talent behind the camera and make a better movie. This one was a failure, but I doubt the franchise is dead.

They've already got footage of the new sequel ....

[YT]yUnFsE1xS0o [/YT]

 

[KalMart]

Though GL was a big failure in a variety of ways, I'm pretty sure they would correct all that in a sequel. The sequel would probably be cheaper than this one, but they would (hopefully) get better talent behind the camera and make a better movie. This one was a failure, but I doubt the franchise is dead.

See, again...sequels shouldn't be made to 'correct' things...they should be made to continue something really good. Either a really good film, or a big money-maker, or both.

And I really can't see it being cheaper if they're naturally going to want to up the ante with the space/Oa stuff...of which they had so little in an already-costly $200M first film.

Of course, if they really can take the "I believe in GL as a whole", or a best two-out-of-three...then yeah, a sequel's possible. But if it's going to be bigger and better, they've got to find it in themselves to open up the checkbooks again...which is what's probably making a sequel the hardest sell, in light of the first GL. I mean, if you're asking to get more for less, and also make up for the first misstep....might as well drop the politeness and ask people to work for free while they're at it.

But yeah, if there's going to be a sequel, then they've got to show faith with their wallets...instead of pulling funds away and asking for more with arms crossed.

 

[Sith Scotti]

The only films that didn't have significant BO drops from one weekend to the next were Bridesmaids, Fast Five, Pirates of teh Caribbean and Hangover II.

A 50% BO drop in this summer movie season isn't just acceptable it's EXPECTED. That's why GL was tracking at a 60% BO drop even before the opening weekend hit.

No, X-Men: First Class was not a box office disappointment. Fox did not put all their eggs into it's basket (money, merchandising, tie-ins); it was a swan song and a gamble to save the dying X-Men franchise. Surprisingly it paid off well critically and financially.

And I am by no means an X-Men movie fanboy, I just respect the facts more than disappointed people's bias opinions

Xmen First Class is a major dissapointment . Yes its budget is less than GL but that is irrelevent to what puts asses into the seats . It has sold lesss tickets than akll the previous Xmen films and the wom aint great apparently . Thor had better legs.

So if we are to rip GL , lets at least acknowledge that First class ain't a massive hit

 

[KalMart]

They've already got footage of the new sequel ....

Spoiler

 

[Poni_Boy]

Xmen First Class is a major dissapointment . Yes its budget is less than GL but that is irrelevent to what puts asses into the seats . It has sold lesss tickets than akll the previous Xmen films and the wom aint great apparently . Thor had better legs.

So if we are to rip GL , lets at least acknowledge that First class ain't a massive hit

People forget the context of the new X-Men film. It wasn't meant to break records or be the biggest superhero film of the summer. If Fox wanted that they would have made another Wolverine project with happy meals, action figures, bath towels and all the other merchandise that goes with these films along with a post conversin 3D release. They were trying to revitalize the property with a serious, adult oriented tone; a complete 180 from the last two films. Making a big profit would definitely be a well received pay off but that wasn't the intent.

That is the major difference between GL and XFC, and that's why XFC is NOT a failure in the eyes of it's studio where as GL is to WB.

 

[Krimasen]

See, again...sequels shouldn't be made to 'correct' things...they should be made to continue something really good. Either a really good film, or a big money-maker, or both.

And I really can't see it being cheaper if they're naturally going to want to up the ante with the space/Oa stuff...of which they had so little in an already-costly $200M first film.

Of course, if they really can take the "I believe in GL as a whole", or a best two-out-of-three...then yeah, a sequel's possible. But if it's going to be bigger and better, they've got to find it in themselves to open up the checkbooks again...which is what's probably making a sequel the hardest sell, in light of the first GL. I mean, if you're asking to get more for less, and also make up for the first misstep....might as well drop the politeness and ask people to work for free while they're at it.

But yeah, if there's going to be a sequel, then they've got to show faith with their wallets...instead of pulling funds away and asking for more with arms crossed.

Sure, but in today's market anything with name value can garner a sequel whether the first made money or not. From what I've read on this board, the CGI was not efficiently done. If they get someone behind the camera who knows how to get great CGI without blowing up the bank, I think they could still do it for about the same or less.

 

[KalMart]

Sure, but in today's market anything with name value can garner a sequel whether the first made money or not.

How much is the GL name value in movies right now, though?

From what I've read on this board, the CGI was not efficiently done. If they get someone behind the camera who knows how to get great CGI without blowing up the bank, I think they could still do it for about the same or less.

Even so, wouldn't it stand to reason that they'd want more for the sequel....more effects and more space with more CG aliens et al? If they again had only around ten minutes of Oa/space with only a few alien Lanterns featured, and the rest on Earth with a Cg suit and a cloud-demon...sure, they might be able to save some money.

Again, trying to go for cheaper is basically punishing the second film for the first film's shortcomings. Whereas if you really want to make the second film better, you need to give it every chance it can have...including more money....unless they tell you they don't need more money. With inflation, and more effects, a bigger scale/scope...you're asking them to do more with less...JUST BECAUSE the last film didn't do well. That's why it's rather dubious to give this a sequel when you wouldn't hold back like that on a sequel for a good/successful movie.

I agree that they should spend and hire more responsibly, but if you really want a better sequel, they're also going to have to find enough faith to put more money in as well if it's called for.

Also...didn't they go with Sony Imageworks because it was cheaper than ILM or WETA? And they still couldn't get things done in time with the extra money and extra/overtime/weekend work? Right there is where they'd probably be spending more if they went with a better VFX house and gave them more time/money to get it all done so that there wouldn't be these gaping holes in the pacing because of unfinished effects/shots. I have a feeling that if Sony was cheaper than ILM now....ILM won't be cheaper than Sony three years or whatever from now. More money? Yeah...but probably better spent for better results, no?

 

[Raiden]

Xmen First Class is a major dissapointment . Yes its budget is less than GL but that is irrelevent to what puts asses into the seats . It has sold lesss tickets than akll the previous Xmen films and the wom aint great apparently . Thor had better legs.

So if we are to rip GL , lets at least acknowledge that First class ain't a massive hit

First Class was made with a new director, relatively unknown cast, set in the 60's, and doesn't really feature Wolverine unless you count a cameo that lasted for less than a minute. I don't think Fox was counting on it being a massive hit, but rather to reclaim the respectability of the franchise after the last two X-Men movies. If they want to try to make as much money as possible, then they could've done X4 or rush another Wolverine movie.

 

[SuperAl]

I still don't understand how people state that X-Men First Class is a financial or critical disappointment; personal opinions about the film aside.

well people keep brining up GL's budget and including some made up marketing number. Xmens production budget was 160 add in w/e marketing they spent they prolly didnt make much either. 123million domestic is not very good.

 

[Silver Surfer]

well people keep brining up GL's budget and including some made up marketing number. Xmens production budget was 160 add in w/e marketing they spent they prolly didnt make much either. 123million domestic is not very good.

I agree. The result is definitely not very good but it is about to reach 300 mil WW and has been able restore faith in the hearts of the fans, general audience and critics. So it's not a failure like GL or a success like Thor, it's somewhere in the middle.

All that said, I doubt there will be sequel to X:FC especially when you consider that X4 is currently in development at Fox