Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[merced]

I don't think that's accurate.

We are seeing this year how hard it is for a comic book movie to crack $200 million domestic.

Superman did that with a movie that just about everyone hated. Contrast that with Batman Begins....which almost everyone loved...and it only made $5 million more. (Both had horrible previous movies as "baggage") Just imagine how much a Superman movie would make if everyone loved it?

Using Mojo's beenchmark for a first tier comic film franchise of 500 illion made in the WW box there are only 3 current such franchises.

Batman, Spiderman and Ironman. And these are deivering way above the half a billion mark so Mojo is generous in seting this benchmark.

Last Batman made over a billion, Spiderman in the 800 millions and Ironman in the 700 millions.

Those are first tier franchises and none of the rest come close - even X-Men which is the runner up of the second tier group.

The point is indeed it's hard to break the magic 500 million mark.

Mojo says maybe studios will reconsider spending so much on second tier franchises expecting first tier box office numbers. It may simply not be possible to duplicate the 3 winning superhero franchises.

Even S:TM adjusted for inflation just barely makes the first tier - in today's dollars it took in a little over 500 million.

 

[Chewy]

Why would they reconsider?

To think that there's a single major studio that wouldn't want a Thor-sized success on their sheets is laughable.

 

[KalMart]

edit. sorry, wrong response

 

[Poni_Boy]

Just heard the Australia release date has been pushed back by one to two weeks.

EDIT: No word yet if any other countries are facing delays as well.

 

[jj9126]

While it's probably moot at this point: Deadline Hollywood reports that GL is down at least 60% in the UK as well, following a soft opening last weekend. While some have been talking about foreign grosses saving the film's ass, that doesn't appear to be in the cards.

 

[biolumen]

3. Green Lantern 3D (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,816 Theaters]
Friday $6M (-72%), Estimated Weekend $19.4M, Estimated Cume $91M

The superhero fell apart its second weekend. Worse, there's little green overseas where grosses for Green Lantern never got off the ground: Friday showed a -60% drop from its soft opening in the UK alone. After this humiliation, Warner Bros needs to rethink how it mines its DC Comics library without Chris Nolan producing/directing/writing everything.

http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/fir...bad-teacher-look-to-be-overperforming-friday/

 

[jmc]

Just heard the Australia release date has been pushed back by one to two weeks.

EDIT: No word yet if any other countries are facing delays as well.

If it's an advertising issue which is what's been alluded to for the Aussie push back then we could see more delays elsewhere.

 

[Docker2.0]

http://www.deadline.com/2011/06/fir...bad-teacher-look-to-be-overperforming-friday/

Didn't read the article but from what you posted, I'm kind of glad it underperformed. Can't believe WB has Nolan dictating to them how their superhero properties should be ran. A separate universe is crazy, especially when you plan on making a JLA movie one day. But with GL underachieving, they will probably give Nolan more power over their properties. And before anyone says anything, I don't think Nolan had any sayso in GL but if TDKR does well, I'm sure he will in the future.

 

[Poni_Boy]

If it's an advertising issue which is what's been alluded to for the Aussie push back then we could see more delays elsewhere.

I heard it's a distribution problem, but I'm waiting to hear back from a second source before making a decision whether to publish the info. wondering if WB will update their official site with the new release date

 

[jmc]

I heard it's a distribution problem, but I'm waiting to hear back from a second source before making a decision whether to publish the info. wondering if WB will update their official site with the new release date

Any details about the problem? Last I heard the issue for the original date change was lack of available 3D screens.

 

[The Sage]

Didn't read the article but from what you posted, I'm kind of glad it underperformed. Can't believe WB has Nolan dictating to them how their superhero properties should be ran. A separate universe is crazy, especially when you plan on making a JLA movie one day. But with GL underachieving, they will probably give Nolan more power over their properties. And before anyone says anything, I don't think Nolan had any sayso in GL but if TDKR does well, I'm sure he will in the future.

I'm glad they're doing separate universes but that's a discussion for another thread.

 

[HighFivingMF]

I'm glad they're doing separate universes but that's a discussion for another thread.

Both of these are true.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Any details about the problem? Last I heard the issue for the original date change was lack of available 3D screens.

That's the "problem." Local distributors want the prints ASAP, 3D screens be damned. But WB is holding out till they get their hands on the most 3D screens available. Big mistake since Cap and HP7 will be utilizing most of em around that timeframe.

 

[biolumen]

Green Lantern descended to third with an estimated $6 million. Its Friday-to-Friday fall was a steep 72 percent and was more severe than both Thor and X-Men: First Class. The drop was closest to Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer among past comparable titles. What's worse, at $77 million in eight days, Green Lantern also had a lower total through the same point.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3194&p=.htm

 

[merced]

GL's poor performance really complicates things for WB.

Their strategy of rolling out GL, Flash maybe WW as self-generating franchises a la Thor or X-Men has hit a snag.

At this point I definitely don't see WB trying WW anytime soon or even Flash.

It's all down to Batman yet again.

MOS is iffy and even if it does well the lawsuit precludes sequels - at least immediately. I expect come 2013 the courts will freeze any use of Superman by either side until a final decision in the case. And this case is going to the SCOTUS so that it will take 5 years plus to get a resolution.

WB can't count on MOS as an ongoing franchise.

It means JL gets a big push now and goes front and center as WB's next non-Bats film.

Why?

By having Batman in JL WB can leverage the strength of Bats to introduce the new characters. This is so even if WB has to make a JL w/o Superman cause of lawsuit issues.

How soon will we see a JL?

Before the GL blowup I'd have said 5 years at best. Now IMO we could see JL by 2014.

 

[Tacit Ronin]

I wanna see dnno spin this Box Office disaster into a positive. Or at the very least blame everything on outside factors but not the movie itself.

Where is he?

 

[Poni_Boy]

GL's poor performance really complicates things for WB.

Their strategy of rolling out GL, Flash maybe WW as self-generating franchises a la Thor or X-Men has hit a snag.

At this point I definitely don't see WB trying WW anytime soon or even Flash.

It's all down to Batman yet again.

MOS is iffy and even if it does well the lawsuit precludes sequels - at least immediately. I expect come 2013 the courts will freeze any use of Superman by either side until a final decision in the case. And this case is going to the SCOTUS so that it will take 5 years plus to get a resolution.

WB can't count on MOS as an ongoing franchise.

It means JL gets a big push now and goes front and center as WB's next non-Bats film.

Why?

By having Batman in JL WB can leverage the strength of Bats to introduce the new characters. This is so even if WB has to make a JL w/o Superman cause of lawsuit issues.

How soon will we see a JL?

Before the GL blowup I'd have said 5 years at best. Now IMO we could see JL by 2014.

I see WB investing heavy funding into book-to-film series in the near future. Like Lionsgate with Hunger Games and Summit with Ender's Game.

Personally I think WB and Legendary should get their Warhammer film up and out there in the next two to three years. That's huge franchise potential

 

[HighFivingMF]

What's Warhammer?

 

[Nemesis Prime]

GL's poor performance really complicates things for WB.

Their strategy of rolling out GL, Flash maybe WW as self-generating franchises a la Thor or X-Men has hit a snag.

At this point I definitely don't see WB trying WW anytime soon or even Flash.

It's all down to Batman yet again.

MOS is iffy and even if it does well the lawsuit precludes sequels - at least immediately. I expect come 2013 the courts will freeze any use of Superman by either side until a final decision in the case. And this case is going to the SCOTUS so that it will take 5 years plus to get a resolution.

WB can't count on MOS as an ongoing franchise.

It means JL gets a big push now and goes front and center as WB's next non-Bats film.

Why?

By having Batman in JL WB can leverage the strength of Bats to introduce the new characters. This is so even if WB has to make a JL w/o Superman cause of lawsuit issues.

How soon will we see a JL?

Before the GL blowup I'd have said 5 years at best. Now IMO we could see JL by 2014.

Agreed. WB is backed into a corner with the failure of GL at the box office. Their dream of having multiple franchises featuring Flash, WW, and other B list heroes is now just a dream. Aside from Dark Knight Rises (which will be Nolan's last Batman movie mind you) there's no surefire hits for SH movie at WB anymore. MOS may be a success or it may not, but with the rights going back to the estates of the creators they can't count on Superman either. WB's choices now become 1. Pay Nolan whatever he wants so he can stay and churn out more DC movies, which I doubt he will since he's not a big fan of the genre, only Batman and Supes, and 2. Rush out JL movie to compete with Avengers and to use Batman as a way to attract more audience. With the JL movie they can also reboot GL (or having a different guy with the ring..bye bye Ryan), introduce a new Bruce Wayne (to helm future Batman movies after JL), and introduce multiple DC heroes without their own movies (and save lots of money in the process).

Therefore I say a JL movie will be greenlit soon and on the screen within 5 years, and if there's a way they can use Superman without violating the court decision you can beat your sweet ass he'll be in it too.

 

[Liam_H]

Agreed. WB is backed into a corner with the failure of GL at the box office. Their dream of having multiple franchises is now just a dream. Aside from Dark Knight Rises (which will be Nolan's last Batman movie mind you) there's no surefire hits for SH movie at WB anymore. MOS may be a success or it may not, but with the rights going back to the estates of the creators they can't count on Superman either. WB's choices now become 1. Pay Nolan whatever he wants so he can stand and churn out more DC movies, which I doubt he will since he's not a big fan of the genre, only Batman and Supes, and 2. Rush out JL movie to compete with Avengers and to use Batman as a way to attract more audience. They can also reboot GL, introduce a new Bruce Wayne (to helm future Batman movies after JL), and introduce multiple DC heroes without their own movies (and save lots of money in the process).

Therefore I say a JL movie will be greenlit soon and on the screen within 5 years, and if there's a way they can use Superman without violating the court decision you can beat your sweet ass he'll be in it too.

There's no point for WB to get Nolan involved in anymore DC heroes, they'll be wasting both of each others time. If Nolan doesn't care in the first place we won't get good movies out him no matter how much he is involved. He worked for Batman due to the character himself.

 

[merced]

Agreed. WB is backed into a corner with the failure of GL at the box office. Their dream of having multiple franchises featuring Flash, WW, and other B list heroes is now just a dream. Aside from Dark Knight Rises (which will be Nolan's last Batman movie mind you) there's no surefire hits for SH movie at WB anymore. MOS may be a success or it may not, but with the rights going back to the estates of the creators they can't count on Superman either. WB's choices now become 1. Pay Nolan whatever he wants so he can stand and churn out more DC movies, which I doubt he will since he's not a big fan of the genre, only Batman and Supes, and 2. Rush out JL movie to compete with Avengers and to use Batman as a way to attract more audience. They can also reboot GL, introduce a new Bruce Wayne (to helm future Batman movies after JL), and introduce multiple DC heroes without their own movies (and save lots of money in the process).

Therefore I say a JL movie will be greenlit soon and on the screen within 5 years, and if there's a way they can use Superman without violating the court decision you can beat your sweet ass he'll be in it too.

Also, WB may shift focus to it's book-to-film movies.

They really can't rely on anything Superman after 2012.

Even if they were to ultimately win the case at the Supreme Court (where it is headed) in the interim 5 - 10 years it will take for a SCOTUS hearing/ruling I expect the 9th circuit will place an injunction in 2013 blocking WB or the heirs from doing anything new with Superman. As in even the books will cease publication.

One option for WB is to option several of it's characters to other studios. Let them take the risk and WB can sit back and collect a license fee and small percentage of the profit if there is one. It's how Marvel started out - with Spiderman at SONY.

 

[DaveMoral]

I see WB investing heavy funding into book-to-film series in the near future. Like Lionsgate with Hunger Games and Summit with Ender's Game.

Personally I think WB and Legendary should get their Warhammer film up and out there in the next two to three years. That's huge franchise potential

I'm pretty sure WB is holding the rights to Terry Brooks' Shannara novels as well. Last I heard they were interested in doing Elfstones of Shannara as that's a good starting point and also not essentially an LOTR clone like Sword of Shannara is.

 

[B]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3194&p=.htm

Wow, first I'd heard of how badly GL was doing at the BO.

I had mentioned this a few years ago on another forum I was a member off when a Green Lantern film was only a rumour at that point. I'd said that we would never see a Green Lantern film on screen because the character isn't popular enough.

That being said after seeing the footage & with Thor's (another character who is arguably not that mainstream popular) success, I thought this film could well do $350m possibly even $450m if it was lucky.

Really for this movie to have been a success it would have needed to have had good promotion, which I feel it did have, & good word of mouth recommendations.

At this rate if the decline in numbers keeps happening as bad this might very well struggle to make back it's budget with POC, Transformers & even the Hangover 2 + other new releases still floating around in cinemas.

 

[B]

Edit

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Also, WB may shift focus to it's book-to-film movies.

They really can't rely on anything Superman after 2012.

Even if they were to ultimately win the case at the Supreme Court (where it is headed) in the interim 5 - 10 years it will take for a SCOTUS hearing/ruling I expect the 9th circuit will place an injunction in 2013 blocking WB or the heirs from doing anything new with Superman. As in even the books will cease publication.

One option for WB is to option several of it's characters to other studios. Let them take the risk and WB can sit back and collect a license fee and small percentage of the profit if there is one. It's how Marvel started out - with Spiderman at SONY.

I don't see other studios eager to make movies of characters they don't have rights to. WB will not allow other studios to have perpetual rights to their property like Fox has with X-Men and Sony with Spider-Man. They'd want the rights back as soon as those studios make the properties a success. Besides aside from the familiar DC heroes that WB obviously will not part with, what other heros would other studios want? If GL isn't doing well at the BO I doubt there'll be much of a demand for Booster Gold, Green Arrow, or Blue Beetle.