Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[merced]

Friday's estimates:

GL 1,900,000 for a total to date of 97,620,000. In 7th place on Friday.

GL should hit 100 million today.

 

[BestGirl]

Difference being superheroes are a far more fragile genre than rom coms or kids films, there's always a market for those type of movies, superheroes depend on bringing people from outside of the small market it has. 2-3 superheroes films every is too many, you need to give some breathing room, you can't afford to flood the market otherwise the novelty wears off. Rom coms will still be around in abundance 10-20 years from now, superheroes are less likely to survive.

Not just that, look at how expensive it is to make a superhero movie. You can't make one on a shoestring budget the way you can a romcom. Problem is, the bigger the budget, the bigger the profit expected.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Just like I posted before, I knew Super 8 would overtake GL and that's exactly what happened. And thanks to this train wreck, my dream of ever seeing a Flash movie has crash and burned. Oh well at least Cap is coming out soon.

 

[silversurfur65]

I was just checking the numbers and it's sad Transformers has made in 3 days what Green Lantern has made in 3 weeks.
Also Thor's WW BO is $437,000,000.......Green Lantern $126,000,000.....Ouch !!

 

[biolumen]

Hard to believe that BOM's May 25th prediction that GL would top out at a weak $130 million domestic was an over-estimation rather than an under-estimation.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3156&p=.htm

 

[merced]

Hard to believe that BOM's May 25th prediction that GL would top out at a weak $130 million domestic was an over-estimation rather than an under-estimation.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3156&p=.htm

The most current projection I've seen is from Box Office Guru and it is saying 220 - 225 million domestic.

At least GL is coming in near predictions. Mojo and the like were projecting 275 - 300 millon for SR. Ouch!! GL and SR's similarities are many. The studio knew months before that SR was a dud and even rushed in folks to change to TV spots to try to salvage what they could. Kind of like they did with GL. Usually this kind of thing doesn't work - and it didn't for either GL or SR.

Cap looks like it amy beat the 200 million projection. There is a chance it could do 500 million WW - not easy but a chance.

If Cap does that it'll join the historic mega-superhero franchises of batman, Spiderman and Ironman.

Marvel is going to want a sequel ASAP so could we see Cap 2 and Thor 2 in 2013?

 

[merced]

I was just checking the numbers and it's sad Transformers has made in 3 days what Green Lantern has made in 3 weeks.
Also Thor's WW BO is $437,000,000.......Green Lantern $126,000,000.....Ouch !!

It gets worse, Thor cost 150 million to make whileGL cost 200 million.

GL is repeating the SR disaster - I wonder if anyone at WB or DCE will be held accountable?

 

[hame4479]

wow the biggest disappoint me about this film is that internationally it is doing far worse than it is domestically, which is a big problem in terms of getting a sequel.

 

[dark_b]

domestic is more importand then international for sequels. studios like and get more money from domestic. and it looks like comicbook movies in general make more money domestic. IMO

 

[merced]

Course the Transformer and Cars release are a factor in GL's poor performance.

With Marvel set to move Wolverine to December 2012 and Hobbit coming out that same month I suspect WB has got to be worried about MOS. Wolverine is a stronger franchise and it could steal away a portion of the audience that Hobbit doesn't take. To make it worse there is hardly any buzz about MOS compared to what you are seeing for Spidey, TDKR and Avengers.

I'm wondeing if the GL mess after the SR mess will get WB to move MOS to a November 2012 release? Already tere is a lot of skepticism out there about the viability of MOS and some of that is coming from it's almost impossible to overcome lousy scheduling/release.

If GL has been released over Labor Day it may have done somewhat better IMO.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Wolverine is not a stronger franchise than Superman... With the rightt visuals and marketing (strip away the Donner/Reeve influence completely), then Superman could surprise us all.

The interest was there in 2006... there just wasn't the right movie to back it up.

 

[merced]

Wolverine is not a stronger franchise than Superman... With the rightt visuals and marketing (strip away the Donner/Reeve influence completely), then Superman could surprise us all.

The interest was there in 2006... there just wasn't the right movie to back it up.

I disagree. If interest had been there SR would have had a gangbusters opening weekend - then fallen of after that from bad WOM.

Same thing with GL, if interest was naturally there upfront it would have scored a better opening and then fallen off from the bad WOM and reviews.

X3 debuted a month before SR (over a 3 day not 4 day holiday weekend) to 120 million. It was a lously film however and had huge fall-off.

I'd say the interest was there for X3 but not GL or SR.

 

[superion]

Wolverine is not a stronger franchise than Superman... With the rightt visuals and marketing (strip away the Donner/Reeve influence completely), then Superman could surprise us all.

The interest was there in 2006... there just wasn't the right movie to back it up.

Superman Returns made more money than Wolverinerigins both domestic and
foreign. It was only a bust because of the amount of money it cost to make.

 

[DaveMoral]

The refusal of WB to cross-pollinate it's franchises is baffling.

It's the same mentality that says if we do a JL the Batman film actor can't be in it.

WB can't afford another huge disappointment so I agree with those above that and Flash and WW aren't coming soon.

It seems inevitable they will have to do a JL. But if Avengers is massive next year that may scare them off.

My guess is there will be no super-hero flick from WB in 2013. In 2014 maybe a rebooted Batman. That seems to be the only WB franchise on the front-burner and being fast tracked right now.

Honestly, I have my doubts that WB really wants to keep their characters out of continuity with each other... it's just, with the success of Batman of late they have really tied their cart to the Nolan horse. He says Batman exists in his own world, and the Superman project he's chipped in on is also isolated. Which leaves GL out in the cold all by his lonesome.

They may have tied GL and the Flash and whoever else together, but it wouldn't have worked if their uber successful Batman trilogy wasn't tied in as well. And that's the hell of it. Nolan doesn't want to have Batman exist in a world where there are other heroes that blow him out of the water because he's not real keen on that stuff. I say, so what. WB's the bosses. They should at least have the clout, and the cojones, to tell Nolan "look, you don't have to say Superman but you do need to reference Metropolis. On TV or in the newspaper. Your choice." And then they do a similar thing with MOS and Snyder. Have a Gotham newspaper on a stand next to the latest edition of the Daily Planet. Mention Coast City somehow. Simple as that.

 

[Dwarf Slayer]

I say, so what. WB's the bosses. They should at least have the clout, and the cojones, to tell Nolan "look, you don't have to say Superman but you do need to reference Metropolis. On TV or in the newspaper. Your choice." And then they do a similar thing with MOS and Snyder. Have a Gotham newspaper on a stand next to the latest edition of the Daily Planet. Mention Coast City somehow. Simple as that.

You really think WB is going to push Nolan around to get some completely unnecessary easter eggs to the broader DC universe?

Warner Bros has proved time and time again that they are completely useless without Nolan.

Catwoman - sucked
Jonah Hex - sucked
Green Lantern - sucked
Superman Returns - sucked
Batman Begins - awesome
The Dark Knight - awesome

It's best WB leave Nolan alone so he can do what he does best, make great movies and make them a lot of money.

 

[Energist]

They may have tied GL and the Flash and whoever else together, but it wouldn't have worked if their uber successful Batman trilogy wasn't tied in as well. And that's the hell of it. Nolan doesn't want to have Batman exist in a world where there are other heroes that blow him out of the water because he's not real keen on that stuff. I say, so what. WB's the bosses. They should at least have the clout, and the cojones, to tell Nolan "look, you don't have to say Superman but you do need to reference Metropolis. On TV or in the newspaper. Your choice." And then they do a similar thing with MOS and Snyder. Have a Gotham newspaper on a stand next to the latest edition of the Daily Planet. Mention Coast City somehow. Simple as that.

I'm sorry, but why are people so obsessed with this interconnected movie-verse nonsense? What good would it really do in the long run? Do you honestly think Green Lantern would have done better at the box office if they had somehow mentioned Batman or Superman in the film? And if you reference the existence of Superman somehow in The Dark Knight Rises, then what? It's not like Christian Bale is suddenly going to be contractually obligated to star in a Justice League of America film because of that.

As far as I'm concerned, it's a good thing that Green Lantern didn't tie into any of the other existing Warner Brothers franchises (read, Batman), because I doubt it's going to be getting a sequel. If they had, the producers would potentially be left with the question of, "Do we really want this bomb connected to other franchises that may still have a shot at success? Do we risk tainting the audience's opinion going in to a Flash film if their mindset is, 'Oh, this is related to that mess? No thanks.'"

This interconnected movie-verse obsession is completely overrated and overblown by comic book fans. I've gotten absolutely nothing out of it from the so-called Avengers "tie-in" films so far other than a completely tacked on ending to The Incredible Hulk and a bunch of Nick Fury and Black Widow scenes in Iron Man 2 that, in my opinion, only dragged the film down. And while I haven't seen Thor yet, I hear Agent Coulson's cameo in that is more of the same.

If Warner Brothers goes out and makes an awesome Justice League of America film from the ground-up, that's perfectly fine by me. I want them to concentrate on making a good movie first and foremost. If they can tie it all together somehow beforehand, that's okay, but I don't at all consider it a prerequisite, nor would I imagine that doing such a thing would at all enhance the quality of the solo pictures themselves.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Superman Returns made more money than Wolverine Origins both domestic and
foreign. It was only a bust because of the amount of money it cost to make.

Not true, Wolverine actually made more money overseas than SR. I've read countless times that Superman for whatever reason is a hard sell outside North America.

 

[Zant]

domestic is more importand then international for sequels. studios like and get more money from domestic. and it looks like comicbook movies in general make more money domestic. IMO

Not anymore,things are a bit different now .X men seems more popular overseas.Thor made more overseas I'm sure Green Lantern and even Cap will make more overseas .It will be the same next year

 

[Dwarf Slayer]

Not anymore,things are a bit different now .X men seems more popular overseas.Thor made more overseas I'm sure Green Lantern and even Cap will make more overseas .It will be the same next year

I seriously doubt Captain AMERICA is going to make more overseas than its domestic total.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Not anymore,things are a bit different now .X men seems more popular overseas.Thor made more overseas I'm sure Green Lantern and even Cap will make more overseas .It will be the same next year

I agree with you on everything else but I think Cap will bring most of it's money domestically. With Harry Potter releasing a week before, it will eat all of it's competition.

 

[jmc]

I'm sorry, but why are people so obsessed with this interconnected movie-verse nonsense? What good would it really do in the long run? Do you honestly think Green Lantern would have done better at the box office if they had somehow mentioned Batman or Superman in the film? And if you reference the existence of Superman somehow in The Dark Knight Rises, then what? It's not like Christian Bale is suddenly going to be contractually obligated to star in a Justice League of America film because of that.

As far as I'm concerned, it's a good thing that Green Lantern didn't tie into any of the other existing Warner Brothers franchises (read, Batman), because I doubt it's going to be getting a sequel. If they had, the producers would potentially be left with the question of, "Do we really want this bomb connected to other franchises that may still have a shot at success? Do we risk tainting the audience's opinion going in to a Flash film if their mindset is, 'Oh, this is related to that mess? No thanks.'"

This interconnected movie-verse obsession is completely overrated and overblown by comic book fans. I've gotten absolutely nothing out of it from the so-called Avengers "tie-in" films so far other than a completely tacked on ending to The Incredible Hulk and a bunch of Nick Fury and Black Widow scenes in Iron Man 2 that, in my opinion, only dragged the film down. And while I haven't seen Thor yet, I hear Agent Coulson's cameo in that is more of the same.

If Warner Brothers goes out and makes an awesome Justice League of America film from the ground-up, that's perfectly fine by me. I want them to concentrate on making a good movie first and foremost. If they can tie it all together somehow beforehand, that's okay, but I don't at all consider it a prerequisite, nor would I imagine that doing such a thing would at all enhance the quality of the solo pictures themselves.

Yeah seriously Dc fans have to let go of this single universe pipe dream. It ain't happening and doesn't make the films any better. As was mentioned in the previous page, individual universes mean no restrictions and no relying on other characters.

 

[biolumen]

From Deadline

6. Green Lantern (Warner Bros) Week 3 [3,280 Theaters]
Friday $2.2M, Saturday, Sunday, Monday
Three-Day Weekend $7.5M, Four-Day Holiday $9M, Cume $105M

 

[Tacit Ronin]

And while I haven't seen Thor yet, I hear Agent Coulson's cameo in that is more of the same.

Coulson had a sizable role.

 

[KalMart]

I know this is old news but man is she right!

http://www.**************.com/fansi..._Waller_To_Be_DCs_Answer_To_Marvels_Nick_Fury

WB/DC is run by a bunch of chimps in suits! Noone is thinking. I've said this numerous times, if you tied GL with TDK or even MOS, there is no question it would have helped it's box office. For them to say that their characters are "to big" to be in a shared universe is closed minded and pathetic! I guess the JLA doesn't exist huh. Again, it's their plan but I don't see this working out for them in the long run. I'm a Marvel guy and I'm wearing a condom for when the Avengers come out(no pun intended)I'm going to have the biggest geekasm one can imagine but even I have to admit that a JLA would make more than an Avengers movie if done right. But with WB/DC track record I highly doubt that they could. Without tying the movies together, the WB has easily missed $30M off of GL's tally.

If you tied GL to TDK/TDKR...it'd be an insult to TDK/TDKR. If one of these films exists in its own universe with no connection to others, and is actually good, then let it do its own thing. Leave it up to the filmmakers whether or not they want to tie it in with another one. If a marketing agenda supersedes the emphasis on making it a good film first and foremost...rarely will it achieve that agenda....because it can adversely affect the film's quality.

The success of DC's or anyone's superhero movies doesn't depend on whether they team up or not. It depends solely on how good they are as individual movies, whether they team up or not. So let those who make the films decide on that.

 

[Lighthouse]

I absolutely agree with keeping these universes separate. It's the best possible move they could make.