Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[Rock Sexton]

Yikes ....

Green Lantern had a budget well in excess of $200 million, according to industry sources, as well as an outsized marketing spend estimated at $100 million domestic and $75 million foreign. A source with ties to the studio says it is reasonable to assume that Warners has spent well over $400 million on the film--not unusual for a summer tentpole—making profitability a steep uphill climb.

 

[Willi Berg]

I remember the old days when the rumour was that Green Lantern 2 was already going to go into production and start shooting before the first movie even came out.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I remember the old days when the rumour was that Green Lantern 2 was already going to go into production and start shooting before the first movie even came out.

Ha! I remember that. What outlet was the source of that "scoop"?

 

[Willi Berg]

Ha! I remember that. What outlet was the source of that "scoop"?

Some drunk production crew guy in a New Orleans bar, I think it was!

 

[Poni_Boy]

Some drunk production crew guy in a New Orleans bar, I think it was!

Hey now, don't go blaming the below the line people. A drunk PA on the film gave me the walkthrough of the wardrobe room

 

[Willi Berg]

Hey now, don't go blaming the below the line people. A drunk PA on the film gave me the walkthrough of the wardrobe room

That's cool. What I remember was that the article said that the talk around New Orleans at the time was that GL2 was going to go into production right away. It probably got misconstrued along the way.

 

[KalMart]

Hey now, don't go blaming the below the line people. A drunk PA on the film gave me the walkthrough of the wardrobe room

Would that be a recently-fired PA, or was it still on the clock?

Did he pee on the Batsuit?

 

[Poni_Boy]

Would that be a recently-fired PA, or was it still on the clock?

Did he pee on the Batsuit?

I dunno Her name was Adri and she couldn't hold her tequila worth a ****

 

[KalMart]

I dunno Her name was Adri and she couldn't hold her tequila worth a ****

Did you get to touch....






...the dot suits?

 

[Poni_Boy]

Did you get to touch....






...the dot suits?

Sadly, no. This was the day before I saw Ryan on set wearing a mo-cap suit. Before then everyone was still under the impression he would be wearing an actual GL suit

 

[solidsnake86]

Wow the budget on this film just keeps on growing, they should just report 500 million so it has a nicer ring to it. "green lantern spends half a billion dollars". Really if they knew they had such a bomb on there hands why did they go out of their way to spend a production budget worth in marketing.

 

[KalMart]

Sadly, no. This was the day before I saw Ryan on set wearing a mo-cap suit. Before then everyone was still under the impression he would be wearing an actual GL suit

I keep thinking that as mocap advances, it might end up being the best way to do...of all things...the 'ideal' Batman cowl. Something that won't add to much bulk/width (you can model it to be 'skin tight') or bunch up the on the skin, have just the right flexibility for full movement, as well as have it move a bit with facial reactions. When I brought the idea up on the TDKR forum, it was met with a lot of ridicule...and GL may not be the best example, but then again, I have a feeling that someone like ILM could probably do it really well.

 

[KalMart]

Wow the budget on this film just keeps on growing, they should just report 500 million so it has a nicer ring to it. "green lantern spends half a billion dollars". Really if they knew they had such a bomb on there hands why did they go out of their way to spend a production budget worth in marketing.

They had to...they probably knew they had such a disjointed mess on their hands, with very little time to put a campaign together, that they went straight for the stuff that had the least screentime but the best visual appeal...the space/Oa stuff. And then banked on getting as many butts in the seats for opening wknd before too much bad W.O.M. could spread.

 

[solidsnake86]

It doesn't justify spending 175 million in marketing. I just don't buy that number. I mean with the way the money gets tossed around it's a wonder how any films make a profit, or they just have really great accountants, lol.

 

[Liam_H]

It doesn't justify spending 175 million in marketing. I just don't buy that number. I mean with the way the money gets tossed around it's a wonder how any films make a profit, or they just have really great accountants, lol.

Agree, with the money they wasted marketing the last two weeks you think they could have actually used that in the movie itself to add more Oa etc.

They just did not realize the amount of time the FX was gonna take to finish everything they wanted. It was probably too late to move the release date when they realized this.

 

[Liam_H]

I keep thinking that as mocap advances, it might end up being the best way to do...of all things...the 'ideal' Batman cowl. Something that won't add to much bulk/width (you can model it to be 'skin tight') or bunch up the on the skin, have just the right flexibility for full movement, as well as have it move a bit with facial reactions. When I brought the idea up on the TDKR forum, it was met with a lot of ridicule...and GL may not be the best example, but then again, I have a feeling that someone like ILM could probably do it really well.

You have an interesting idea with mo-capping Batman's cowl and Bale's face does seem angular enough to fit that. Although Nolan's bat suit seems too bulky and the proportions would look off when looking at Batman as a whole.

Also the effects would have to be nearly perfect because any slight hiccup would just take you out of the movie.

 

[KalMart]

It doesn't justify spending 175 million in marketing. I just don't buy that number. I mean with the way the money gets tossed around it's a wonder how any films make a profit, or they just have really great accountants, lol.

I doubt they initially set out to spend that much or anywhere near it. But with a late start and overtime, etc...that's where costs can really mount.

I do think too much money is getting thrown at a lot of movies...but even today with so much other media/entertainment out there, there are still a few movies here and there that gross way over $500M. So if it's still possible, you know people are still going to shoot for it. Problem is, you really can't set out to be a top grosser and achieve it...there's always an element of surprise or something about the movie catching people off-guard that makes it a new experience. Sometimes you even go in expecting it to be a big waste because the money spent is so high...like with Titanic and Avatar.

So then you get people looking at those examples and thinking they can pick up on the formula to huge success. And you never really see that happening when it's so blatant that they tried to follow someone else's lead.

 

[KalMart]

You have an interesting idea with mo-capping Batman's cowl and Bale's face does seem angular enough to fit that. Although Nolan's bat suit seems too bulky and the proportions would look off when looking at Batman as a whole.

Also the effects would have to be nearly perfect because any slight hiccup would just take you out of the movie.

I was honestly thinking farther down the road with a Batman reboot that's more fantasy/comic-like. Not that you couldn't use it in a grittier 'realistic' setting like Nolan's....but I think a more stylized overall visual approach to the film would probably suit it a bit better.

Yeah, they'd have to be done as perfectly as possible, and another problem is that people get so much more inside-info and exposure to behind-the-scenes stuff that they automatically know they're looking at an effect, or trying to pick up on what separates it from the 'real' stuff, no matter how well it's done. Ignorance really can be bliss when it comes to that. But it can still impress...like the first time we saw Davy Jones in POTC. On humans it's always tough because we're so naturally programmed to picking up on the smallest of subtleties.

Put it this way, if the capability is up to snuff, I think it'd at least be worth exploring as an option.

 

[TheVileOne]

Honestly a budget that size doesn't surprise me. A friend of mine who worked in movie PR when I was in college when King Kong was coming out once told me that the new King Kong movie would have needed $1 billion to break even. And the reason that doesn't surprise me is because worldwide distribution for a big international release costs a ton more money. Not to mention percentages or extra fees for the producers and guys like Peter Jackson.

Also when Titanic was coming out and doing well, there were some bytes on E! suggesting the movie really had a total budget somewhere over $300 million which also wouldn't surprise me because of the marketing of a big movie like that as well.

 

[KalMart]

Honestly a budget that size doesn't surprise me. A friend of mine who worked in movie PR when I was in college when King Kong was coming out once told me that the new King Kong movie would have needed $1 billion to break even. And the reason that doesn't surprise me is because worldwide distribution for a big international release costs a ton more money. Not to mention percentages or extra fees for the producers and guys like Peter Jackson.

Also when Titanic was coming out and doing well, there were some bytes on E! suggesting the movie really had a total budget somewhere over $300 million which also wouldn't surprise me because of the marketing of a big movie like that as well.

That's funny...I actually edited a few of the TV spots and online sizzle-clips for King Kong because there was some last-minute scrambling for subcontracting work with marketing and their website. I got the connection through my sister who was working for a website company that did a lot of the Universal movies...and she would often get flooded with stuff at the 11th hour. It'd be hectic, but she welcomed the overtime pay.

 

[Herolee10]

For GL to have at least had a chance on being a BO success, especially when you consider how much it took to make it along with its oncoming competition, it should have made its production budget by now imho, or at least VERY CLOSE to it.

 

[Liam_H]

For GL to have at least had a chance on being a BO success, especially when you consider how much it took to make it along with its oncoming competition, it should have made its production budget by now imho, or at least VERY CLOSE to it.

Let's say this movie was actually good, quality being around the first spider-man film. But they had the same exact trailers and footage that was used to market this movie; marketed exactly the same way. Had good critical reception say between 70-80% on RT. Fans love it too. I still think this movies tops out around $150 million domestically or even $180 million tops. Not sure about international but most likely better than it is now. Right now with TF3 coming out, it will stop around $125 million.

Because a lot of people based on those trailers had decided whether they would see it or not already. The opening weekend would already be higher and the word of mouth would be better. But the film was in such a bad slot to have legs even if it was good. Cars 2 would've taken away its kid audience and TF3 targets the same demographic that see superhero movies. Despite how bad TF2 was people still want to go see the third one.

However, if everything I said above hypothetically happened then WB would still be pleased. Even if they didn't make as much money as they would have liked, they got GA to like GL character and I'm almost 100% sure we would get a sequel. The sequel would be a lot more successful. This is what is happening to Thor right now; a sequel is pretty certain because its a good movie and liked by the majority of GA.

 

[Bruce Malone]

WB was not hoping for mid level success for this movie they weren't even looking at 200 million domestic. The reason they spent so much money was because they wanted this to be their Iron-Man they wanted a 300 million dollar domestic franchise. They wanted something that could take over for batman and harry potter.

They just totally bet on the wrong horse.

 

[Avenger]

The movie didn't fail because Green Lantern isn't a well-known character (which he isn't), it failed because it was a bad movie. If they'd had a stronger script and more focused direction, they would have made their money back.

 

[Liam_H]

I know WB was betting on DC heroes besides Batman/Superman to be their next big money makers but even if this surprised us and was Iron Man level quality. I still don't think it tops $200 million domestic not with its competition and not by the type of marketing. GA were not sold on the trailers, it had to rely on word of mouth.