Green Lantern Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 2

[dnno1]

Green Lantern is losing 1,200 screens this weekend, it's 4th in release. That is huge.

For comparison of 4th weekend screen lost:
Thor lost 600
XM:FC lost 750

Theaters are dumping this turkey as fast as they can.

Puts into question if the film will hit $115m domestic at this point. It'll keep having screens dumped in large amounts I predict.

I don't know about that. A lot of those theaters are under agreement to keep a film in their theater for a certain period of time. After that they more than likely have another film lined up to come in. I don't think that them dropping a film has any thing to do with low attendance.

 

[KalMart]

At this point, I think it would have been a decidedly more strategic move had Warner Brothers debuted the Green Lantern animated series about a year out ahead of the movie. If the animated series takes off with youngsters like some fans are predicting it will, then I think that would have certainly helped the film's performance at the box office, even if the quality remained exactly the same.

As it stands, however, the film could very well have the exact opposite effect on the animated series, and actually lose it some viewers at its offset.

Maybe it's better that a film gets what it deserves as a film in this case. At the very least it's a shot in the arm to the makers to do better. Otherwise, you could just get a sequel with more of the same mediocrity if that's what seemingly sells.

 

[Flemm]

The problem with a little known property laying a giant rotten egg like this at the box office is that it can potentially taint the character for an extended period. Now any reboot will have this film's failure to contend with.

This is not like Batman or Spidey where the character is so well known and has such a proven record of success that a bad movie will not deeply affect the longterm perception of the character.

 

[Primal Slayer]

Either just give it a sequel and make sure its top notch or call a reboot. If we can get 2 Hulk films in such a short amount of time we can get GL.

 

[KalMart]

The problem with a little known property laying a giant rotten egg like this at the box office is that it can potentially taint the character for an extended period. Now any reboot will have this film's failure to contend with.

This is not like Batman or Spidey where the character is so well known and has such a proven record of success that a bad movie will not deeply affect the longterm perception of the character.

I think it's more like it'll be forgotten so quickly that it won't have time to be tainted....unless you remind people with another film. As far as moving ahead with more comics/animation, he should be fine. Not every superhero has to be in movies.

 

[Silver Surfer]

Either just give it a sequel and make sure its top notch or call a reboot. If we can get 2 Hulk films in such a short amount of time we can get GL.

Both Hulk films were much better received by critics and were a lot more successful financially. GL is a flat out bomb both critically and financially, it doesn't even come close as a comparison to TIH and Ang Lee's Hulk.

 

[KalMart]

If we can get six Police Academies and five Fast & Furiouses....

If OJ Simpson can get away with murder, what's so bad about a little a physical assault.

 

[The Morningstar]

I watched this again last week. Wasn't as bad as the first time. But it's still baaaaad. 1000X worse than both Hulk films, so let's not bring them up.

See the thing is, why would people want a sequel to this? If this film was financially successful the sequel wouldn't be any better. It'd just be more of the same.

 

[KalMart]

I watched this again last week. Wasn't as bad as the first time. But it's still baaaaad. 1000X worse than both Hulk films, so let's not bring them up.

See the thing is, why would people want a sequel to this? If this film was financially successful the sequel wouldn't be any better. It'd just be more of the same.

So GL fans could claim association with at least some sort of movie success? Never mind the accommodations or benefits, just get me in the club?

 

[samsnee]

First reveal of the costume looked pretty good.

From what I remember, it was right before last year's Comic-con and the reaction was mixed at best. And then you had Campbell at Comic-con trying to do damage control and say that it wasn't the final costume. Granted there were tweaks here and there but the final costume pretty much looked the same. Here's the link:

http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/2010/07/comic-con-martin-campbell-says-green.html

 

[CaptainCraig]

Green Lantern is losing 1,200 screens this weekend, it's 4th in release. That is huge.

For comparison of 4th weekend screen lost:
Thor lost 600
XM:FC lost 750

Theaters are dumping this turkey as fast as they can.

Puts into question if the film will hit $115m domestic at this point. It'll keep having screens dumped in large amounts I predict.

I don't know about that. A lot of those theaters are under agreement to keep a film in their theater for a certain period of time. After that they more than likely have another film lined up to come in. I don't think that them dropping a film has any thing to do with low attendance.

A summer film, or any "big" film typically does have some type of 2-3 guarantee clause. From there the theater can decide how it wants to allocate and maintain screens and for which films.

Green Lanterns low attendance/revenue is EXACTLY why it's losing such a large % of screens. The comparison is quite evident of that.

 

[The Sage]

From what I remember, it was right before last year's Comic-con and the reaction was mixed at best. And then you had Campbell at Comic-con trying to do damage control and say that it wasn't the final costume. Granted there were tweaks here and there but the final costume pretty much looked the same. Here's the link:

http://theplaylist.blogspot.com/2010/07/comic-con-martin-campbell-says-green.html

Well it was a work-in progress. Texture was added and the final rendering looked good. I never had a problem with the costume.

 

[Red Mask]

WB put waaaay too much faith in Green Lantern. Everything about it reeks of ''please please like this movie... Harry Potter is ending, we need a money maker and were ****ed''

Don't worry about their losses. Successes like Harry Potter will make up for any lost profit for the parent company of WB Pictures. That's how the business works. But I don't know how smaller groups like DCE and De Line Pictures will fare.

 

[Mysteryman]

Well it was a work-in progress. Texture was added and the final rendering looked good. I never had a problem with the costume.

Ditto.

 

[akfj]

But I don't know how smaller groups like DCE and De Line Pictures will fare.

I think DC Entertainment will be just fine, because they're not a film company.

 

[merced]

is kind Meanwhile Captain America gets a full segment on John Bachelor's 07/08 radio show. The biggest overnight in terms of ratings.

Marvel working with paramount here sure know how to push their product. I don't recall GL getting this kind of "mainstream" publicity. Or SR for that matter.

This kind of national radio segment (full 6 minutes) is a studio's delght.

 

[HighFivingMF]

Ra... di... o... ?

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Ra... di... o... ?

That'll really reel in the under 30's...

 

[merced]

Ra... di... o... ?

Bachelor has 10 million listeners. Not the normal superhero audience I am sure. But the point is Marvel/Paramount are promoting this film everywhere. I get e-mails from friends with Cap tags on them.

IMO Captain America will surge past Thor to become this year's biggest superhero film. IMO it could approach 500 million WW.

 

[merced]

That'll really reel in the under 30's...

To quote Lex from S:TM. They have eyes but do not see.

Cap is WW2/50s/60s stuff. That I am told is the core of Bachelor's audience. This is a shrewd move by Paramount and Marvel. They will take audience whereever they can get it.

It's that extra mile, that unexpcted step that Marvel and Paramount are taking to make this film huge.


WB could learn a lessonor two here.
Laugh if you will but it's not over till cap' opening weekend is in. I am thinking 90 million plus. In part because of this brilliant arketing strategy.

 

[TheVileOne]

I hope it does but we shall see. Green Lantern's performance makes me nervous.

Hey maybe merced is onto something. Jim Caviezel was going onto Sean Hannity's radio show to push Passion of The Christ. Just saying, that movie did huge business.

 

[Silver Surfer]

90 mil opening weekend for cap? no way, not with harry potter opening a week before.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I can't really guess Captain America... everyone keeps talking about this red-hot marketing campaign but I simply don't feel it.

Things could turn south rapidly.

 

[merced]

I hope it does but we shall see. Green Lantern's performance makes me nervous.

Hey maybe merced is onto something. Jim Caviezel was going onto Sean Hannity's radio show to push Passion of The Christ. Just saying, that movie did huge business.

The point is marketing is an art. You need to identify and reach out to your audeince.

Folks in their 50, 60s and 70s are not normally wont to attend a superhero film.

But Captain America is from their generation.

The film has been updated and directed to the 30 something crowd.

But Marvel and Paramount realize there may be a huge market in the post W2 generation which would turn out for the film.

If they are right in their strategy Captain America is going to be huge.

Marketing is at it's heart an art - one that Marvel seems to get but that WB doesn't have a clue about. IMO.

 

[merced]

I can't really guess Captain America... everyone keeps talking about this red-hot marketing campaign but I simply don't feel it.

Things could turn south rapidly.

It's not easy to predict and I am going out on a limb. I have this gut feeling Cap will be the biggest superhero flm of 2011.

BTW, the reviewer on bachelor's show said the film is really, really good.