Guardians of the Galaxy Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

When your first film makes 300+million dollars it's not easy to improve on that as we saw with Iron Man 2 which made less domestically. I think that Guardians is going to marginally improve by about 5 to 15 million on the 1st because the legs have been pretty consistent for sequels outside of Winter Soldier, which opened up with much less and had better than the first film. GOTG 2 reviews are not as good as the first movie's like Iron Man 2 and Thor 2 thus I see similar legs.

 

[StormC]

Yeah, people here were telling me that just because every Marvel sequel outside of AOU showed growth, GOTG2 could reach a billion no problem. 200M+ added on for a movie that was a complete surprise success is not easy to pull off.

I posted earlier that 900M is the ceiling and with these current opening weekend figures, I'm gonna stick to that. Even Homecoming with RDJ is probably looking at a 700-800M performance.

 

[Zant]

Its going to be the first non- RDJ MCU film to make over 800 mil, so that's something.

I blame the trades for getting some people hopes up, with their over predictions and Fandango stats. Homecoming having RDJ and Thor 3 breaking trailer view records will probably make them over predict those films too. I don't think any CBM is making a billion this year.

Fast and Furious 8 and BATB make it look so easy,its not.

 

[Ozbridge]

Was that person for real? Trying to make a bet for $2k on Logan beating $700? t:

S/he was a total goofball and got themselves banned. I missed whatever drama happened, but enough was there to show they were clueless.

There wasn't much drama, that person created an account to say that anyone who thought Logan wouldn't make 700M "can't do math", got into an argument with an user, tried to bait me into taking an $2k bet (which, let's be honest, they didn't take seriously). Shortly later that person got banned, came back with another account to post 1 single post insulting mod and threatening to attack mod physically irl. That post was deleted and that account was banned again.

Anyway back to GotG 2, any chance it will have IM3/ CW multiplier and decrease from the 1st one? I think it's slim but it's there.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

It's definitely not hitting $1 billion. Darth Skywalker your thoughts on this "failure?"

I'll wait for the end of the weekend in terms of international numbers, but this is underwhelming. It will easily pass the first movie, but it seems people aren't enjoying this one to nearly the same degree. This has all the advantages, especially with how week the next month is, so legs might still work out for it.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Part of me is surprised this movie is not as well liked as the 1st film, but on the other hand, I do feel this film was more out there in certain regards and had less humor, so I also can see it. Doesn't change my opinion, though. At the very least, this will still be very successful

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Well if it makes anyone feel better my nephew who didn't really like the first movie, the same as myself, liked the sequel much more and so now I'm going to give it a go at the theater. Not today or anything but I am going to see it based on his recommendation and others who I've seen like it better than the first which I found very shallow. Sorry to anyone who loved it, that's just my opinion of it.

Anyway I think that 900 million would be a great gross and that the film could do that. I agree that we really have to stop with the any movie that makes less than a billion is a failure situation, it's gotten out of control. The vast majority of comic book movies don't make a billion. I think only a few should have that expectation, a small few. And Guardians of the Galaxy 2 is not on that list to me. Avengers and Civil War, sure but Guardians 2 I don't think so.

 

[StormC]

Yeah...I doubt Disney is underwhelmed by these numbers. Fans just want to have a pissing contest, I guess. It's got the same budget as the first movie and will definitely make more.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

Yeah...I doubt Disney is underwhelmed by these numbers. Fans just want to have a pissing contest, I guess. It's got the same budget as the first movie and will definitely make more.

"Underwhelming" and "expectations" are just words that some fans make up to support their arguments.

It's also helpful to cover up when they get a prediction wrong. Their prediction wasn't wrong...the movie messed it up!

That whole "billion" thing was just some fans being too optimistic and others seeking a way to label it a "disappointment". So fans from each extreme had a motive.

Surprise hits are often movies that hit their ceiling and decrease with the sequel. This had that smell too. I can already see the Deadpool sequel going through this same routine from the same fan factions when it comes out.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

"Underwhelming" and "expectations" are just words that some fans make up to support their arguments.

It's also helpful to cover up when they get a prediction wrong. Their prediction wasn't wrong...the movie messed it up!

That whole "billion" thing was just some fans being too optimistic and others seeking a way to label it a "disappointment". So fans from each extreme had a motive.

Surprise hits are often movies that hit their ceiling and decrease with the sequel. This had that smell too. I can already see the Deadpool sequel going through this same routine from the same fan factions when it comes out.

You do realize you made an actual prediction and are actually wrong right? This movie is clearly going to make more then the first. How is that the first movie "hitting the ceiling"?

 

[FlareKnight]

In the end I only had the expectation of it hitting around the same mark of the first film. In the high $700 million range. I'm glad that it is doing better than the first and should end up making more money.

In the end starting out domestically with around $140 million to add to what they've already done internationally is a nice start. Should be able to have a darn good run.

 

[InCali]

You do realize you made an actual prediction and are actually wrong right? This movie is clearly going to make more then the first. How is that the first movie "hitting the ceiling"?

I wouldn't even bother with this guy/gal. S/he clearly has some sort of point to make and uses historical revisions to make them. Either your points weren't understood to begin with or they were intentionally misrepresented. In any case.....who cares?

 

[Wildcard]

Pretty sure this bad boy is going over a billion. People love GOTG and Vol 2 gives more of what they loved about the first while not feeling like a retread. Why wouldn't it make more than the first?

 

[StormC]

How is getting over a billion if it's tracking significantly less than every other billion dollar MCU movie?

 

[Raiden]

I don't want to give up the dream of GOTG2 hitting one billion; we will see how the multiplier adds up in the coming weeks to know for sure.

 

[TheVileOne]

The film hitting a billion is hardly a dream. I think it'd be cool it would happen but it seems unlikely at this point.

 

[Iceman]

A billion is just a super-nice round number. Otherwise it wouldn't get mentioned so regularly in box office threads. Apart from being a very nice looking number it doesn't have much relevance as a measure of success/failure outside of a coincidental one for certain films. This film seems to be doing numbers that would make sense and fall in line with the general reception so far (as in decent but no world-beater and not quite as clever as first time round).

 

[TheVileOne]

It is a cool round number, but it's also exceptionally rare and rarer than anyone really thinks.

Marvel Studios has just been in a good position where it's released a number of very well received films that managed strike a chord with audiences around the world that could break that number.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/05/guardia...ice-opening-summer-season-kickoff-1202084714/

8th Update, Sunday 12:40AM: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 raked in a fantastic $51M on Saturday, putting the Disney/Marvel movie back on course for a $142.3M-$146.8M opening weekend. Currently, industry estimates figure that on the high end, today will be -22% from Saturday logging $39.5M. For GOTG2 to hit a $150M domestic opening, it would need to make $42.7M today, which would be $300K more than what Captain America: Civil War grossed on its Sunday.

Ever since the studios began rolling Thursday previews into Friday’s B.O., Saturday typically registers as a dip. It’s in these cases that the hasty observation is made that a film is frontloaded. But if you back out GOTG2‘s $17M Thursday night from its $56M+ Friday (which would then be $39.3M), we see that Saturday’s $51M technically reps a 30% hike over Friday. That Friday-to-Saturday surge for GOTG2 outstrips that of Captain America: Civil War (+21%), Iron Man 3 (+17%), GOTG (+16%), Avengers (+12% Saturday over Friday) and Avengers: Age of Ultron (-1%), that is when you compare those films’ Saturdays to their pure Fridays (less Thursday cash). Now, that says a lot about GOTG2‘s powerful word of mouth: Each day the sequel’s grosses have improved. PostTrak continues to report that 76% of all moviegoers are giving GOTG2 a definite thumbs up to their friends; that’s one point above GOTG‘s 75%.

 

[Tony Stark]

This is going to have better legs than CW, AoU or IM3 did. This does not seem like it's going to be very frontloaded. There's no competition in May until Pirates 5 comes out.

 

[Erzengel]

I think a $1B is important because it'd be the first non Iron Man appearance movie to achieve that.

Same thing with DC movie and a non Batman movie.

 

[Primal Slayer]

Part of me is surprised this movie is not as well liked as the 1st film, but on the other hand, I do feel this film was more out there in certain regards and had less humor, so I also can see it. Doesn't change my opinion, though. At the very least, this will still be very successful

Less humor? I thought this one had way more humor which was part of the problem imo.

 

[Panacea]

Pretty sure this bad boy is going over a billion. [...]

Very unlikely at this point I think, though not as unlikely as it making less money than the first.

 

[iEquinox]

Domestic: $145,049,000
Foreign: $282,600,000
Worldwide: $427,649,000
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=main&id=marvel17a.htm

145M is the estimated opening weekend.
That's a solid internal multiplier for a MCU movie after the 56.3M friday. Should be a sign for decent legs.

 

[First Avenger]

WOM looks to be about the same as the first.