Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread - Part 1

[Stark Bauer]

I wouldn't have expected the movie to be a huge hit, but sub-400M would have seemed laughably low as well.

Anyway, yes, it's most likely a combination of factors and a general lack of enthusiasm. But that's why everything flops. Look at Blade Runner. Just another thing people didn't want to see, I guess.

It's enthusiasm that requires a special explanation. One wouldn't want Star Wars to be on the long list of movies that people don't care about, at least not consistently.

It’s looking more and more like sub $250 M domestic

To be more precise, $220-240 domestic.

To be exact, $230 M is a safe bet for Solo’s final domestic gross

 

[Flemm]

Well, I meant under 400M worldwide, which seems more likely than not.

 

[honestbharani]

I won't mind it so much if they had Luke coming back through some extremely contrived plot device, given the sad and untimely demise of Carrie Fischer and the dent it would have caused on their original plans for Episode IX.

 

[DACrowe]

Reading through the posts in this thread, you’d think it already had tanked. People need to calm down. TLJ still made $1.3 billion at the box office. Just because the incel crowd thought it was the worst movie ever made doesn’t mean SW is dead. Neither does Solo flopping.

I still say that if SW can survive the awfulness of the prequels, it can survive this bump in the road.

Yes, fandom and some online geek sites (not all) are already reacting like the sky is freaking falling. Star Wars is dead. It's over. It can't come back.

There are a variety of reasons to see Solo flopped and my first instinct was "it looked bad (I didn't want to see it until I was dragged to it) and recasting." I will wait until Episode IX, the sequel to The Last Jedi, to judge whether the fanbase is really splintered or if this was simply a movie nobody wanted regardless of quality.

They're one really good teaser trailer away from turning it around IMO. I think you have to look at some anecdotal evidence in real life and step away from the internet to get a better sense of what the general mood is.

Yep. Remember Logan? No one cared and the brand was "ruined." Then this trailer happened.

 

[DACrowe]

Let's say hypothetically Episode IX clears a billion (like Rogue One, a non-saga film) and personally I think it will struggle to do that.

2.07b>> 1.33b>> 1.00b

If that isn't a message to Disney that fans don't like your product I don't what is. You would think that if the movies were resonating with fans it would look like almost every Marvel sequel/trilogy or other major Trilogy like The Hobbit, LOTR etc. or episodic franchise like Harry Potter. Where the final movie makes as much or more than the first. So IX would make greater than 2.07 Billion if that were the case.

People looking exclusively for other reasons for SOLOs poor performance apart from fan displeasure are being willfully obtuse. Now over the last few days even a lot of the usual Disney sycophants are talking about TLJ backlash and its divisiveness with diehard SW fans. Because it us impossible to have a discussion about SOLOs extraordinarily underwhelming Box Office without it, unless you are oblivious to reality/social media/fan sites/youtube etc.

I'm not saying that release date and competition aren't factors at all, of course they are. However just about every movie in history faces competition and to deny that is ridiculous. I think the European Soccer championships had an effect as well, but there are professionals that decide these dates and they would have taken that into account.

Still, given those obvious factors, they are not enough in isolation, in my opinion to drop the Box Office for SOLO over 60% from RO, the last non saga film and best comparison. I agree that Episode IX will be the make or break indicator of the health of the franchise with the fans. I think anything around a billion or lower will be a disaster for a Star Wars Saga film and will bode ill for its future.

The message is that the hype is dying down and general audiences want something new.

It is not, "You ruined Luke Skywalker and now we boycott your movie until Kathleen Kennedy is fired!" In fact, a $1 billion gross, especially now after Solo will struggle to $450 million worldwide, is the exact opposite of that message.

 

[Iceman]

If there's only one moment I think needed changing in Last Jedi, it's the killing of Luke Skywalker. I think that's sort of the tipping point of what turns fans against the movie.

I think that's the root cause of Han Solo's underwhelming box office.

Yeah, and it's too late to change it. I wouldn't even have minded him dying in that film if he'd died in battle and not been a hologram. I'm sure I'll still enjoy future SW films but some of that magic has permanently died now for me. Making good or great films is always possible but the magic is that rare quality in cinema that is hard to replicate.

 

[JeetKuneDo]

I honestly think that the destruction of Luke has a significant impact on the Star Wars fanbase and on the box office numbers for every Star Wars movie forward.

Agreed. The internet has been on fire for the past 6 months due to TLJ...but some are trying very hard to pretend that wasn't a big factor in what is happening with Solo.

No one was asking for a Rogue One movie either and it didn't flop. It's not "bad marketing" either...because it's Star Wars. No one is going to be unaware that a SW movie is coming out.

Taking a dump on one of the most beloved characters in sci fi history matters and Disney is finding out how much it matters. At least it looks like WB got the message about their DC movies with the JL box office.

 

[Karelia]

I won't mind it so much if they had Luke coming back through some extremely contrived plot device, given the sad and untimely demise of Carrie Fischer and the dent it would have caused on their original plans for Episode IX.

Pretty much this.

Make Episode 8 a nightmare for all I care. Just wasn't a fan of the movie at all.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Pretty much this.

Make Episode 8 a nightmare for all I care. Just wasn't a fan of the movie at all.

HAHA Deadpool Retcon post credits scene: preventing the new trilogy from being made

 

[BatLobster]

Yeah, and it's too late to change it. I wouldn't even have minded him dying in that film if he'd died in battle and not been a hologram. I'm sure I'll still enjoy future SW films but some of that magic has permanently died now for me. Making good or great films is always possible but the magic is that rare quality in cinema that is hard to replicate.

Unfortunately, that particular magic was gonna die eventually anyway. These actors aren't going to be around forever, and they're not getting any younger sadly. We just lost one of them. At least we're getting closure with Luke, and he will certainly be around as a Force Ghost in Ep. IX. Hopefully JJ will make those moments magical and satisfying.

You know what else equates to Star Wars magic to me? John Williams' scores. And we're only getting one more of those.

Eventually, it's probably just not going to be for us anymore. I'm trying to enjoy it while I still can, though I do think too many films in a row automatically kind of dilutes the magic.

 

[Karelia]

HAHA Deadpool Retcon post credits scene: preventing the new trilogy from being made

Hahaha YES!!! I'm okay with that at this point.

I just kinda wish the saga ended better for the OT characters. Just end on a happy note with them. Instead they're all bitter/divorced/angry...

 

[Evil Twin]

Agreed. The internet has been on fire for the past 6 months due to TLJ...but some are trying very hard to pretend that wasn't a big factor in what is happening with Solo.

No one was asking for a Rogue One movie either and it didn't flop. It's not "bad marketing" either...because it's Star Wars. No one is going to be unaware that a SW movie is coming out.

Taking a dump on one of the most beloved characters in sci fi history matters and Disney is finding out how much it matters. At least it looks like WB got the message about their DC movies with the JL box office.

If it was truly fan backlash, then no way would Solo' s tracking a few weeks out have been so robust. The anti-TLJ brigade is not shy about sharing their feelings. Nor does TLJ backlash explain Solo utterly bombing overseas in markets that weren't particularly tied to the OT.

I'm sure it played a small part, but more likely tracking was based on the general audience who got excited at Star Wars in the title and got less excited based on the lackluster marketing which utterly failed to sell Alden Ehrenreich as a replacement to Harrison Ford.

 

[Iceman]

Unfortunately, that particular magic was gonna die eventually anyway. These actors aren't going to be around forever, and they're not getting any younger sadly. We just lost one of them. At least we're getting closure with Luke, and he will certainly be around as a Force Ghost in Ep. IX. Hopefully JJ will make those moments magical and satisfying.

You know what else equates to Star Wars magic to me? John Williams' scores. And we're only getting one more of those.

Eventually, it's probably just not going to be for us anymore. I'm trying to enjoy it while I still can, though I do think too many films in a row automatically kind of dilutes the magic.

That's not quite what I mean. The magic stays alive (for me) if you never revisit a property and just do new stuff. When you do choose to revisit then it's important to not suddenly change things massively as that then has an impact on what came before.

If we see Darth Vader in costume in a new film and he now has a crippling fear of rebel soldiers with blasters that new information takes away from the intimidation of his OT appearances.

As a more recent example, the magic of Luke's scene in TFA is completely gone for me now as I can see Luke throwing the light saber away soon afterwards and then filling his face with milk from that disgusting animal. t:

And whatever Abrams does with Luke in IX is of a bit less interest to me now because of what's happened in TLJ. It has permanently killed something for me and I don't think there's a way back on that front. Doesn't mean I won't enjoy future SW films, especially ones that cover wholly new material, but it is what it is.

 

[dataSlave]

I just kinda wish the saga ended better for the OT characters. Just end on a happy note with them. Instead they're all bitter/divorced/angry...

If I wanted that I'd just get together with my friends for a beer or two...

 

[dataSlave]

If it was truly fan backlash, then no way would Solo' s tracking a few weeks out have been so robust. The anti-TLJ brigade is not shy about sharing their feelings. Nor does TLJ backlash explain Solo utterly bombing overseas in markets that weren't particularly tied to the OT.

I'm sure it played a small part, but more likely tracking was based on the general audience who got excited at Star Wars in the title and got less excited based on the lackluster marketing which utterly failed to sell Alden Ehrenreich as a replacement to Harrison Ford.

What makes you think the "tracking" was anything other than propaganda trying to put a happy face on a looming problem? I find it hard to believe that less than a week out, the studio and industry were really so clueless they thought Solo could get $170 million domestically and another $170 mil overseas during OW.
https://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a...-opening-memorial-day-weekend-1202395995/amp/



Could anyone actually be that clueless? Those "estimates" were too high by 65% domestically and exaggerated the international results by a staggering 150%. I find it far more likely that they knew well in advance there was a severe problem and their first reaction was to spin so as not to contribute further to the cloud hanging over Solo.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

I am 100% sure we'll be seeing plenty of Luke in IX. Who knows what sort of stuff he learned from the Jedi texts all those years he was on the island. He's not done with Ben by a long shot, I don't think.

And Mark Hamill hasn't shaved the beard off.

It's a shame Solo tanked, most of the reactions I've seen have said it's a pretty good movie. Hopefully it'll find an audience on home video and Netflix.

I wouldn't hold my breath for that Boba Fett movie. I fully expect Disney to pull the plug on any more anthology films, or at least put them on a back burner for a very long time. Maybe do them as a TV series instead of a movie.

Force ghost Luke just doesn’t excite me as much as an alive Jedi Master Luke would though.

I think if Luke had been left alive by the end of TLJ, I would have much more anticipation for Episode 9.

 

[Evil Twin]

What makes you think the "tracking" was anything other than propaganda trying to put a happy face on a looming problem? I find it hard to believe that less than a week out, the studio and industry were really so clueless they thought Solo could get $170 million domestically and another $170 mil overseas during OW.
https://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a...-opening-memorial-day-weekend-1202395995/amp/



Could anyone actually be that clueless? Those "estimates" were too high by 65% domestically and exaggerated the international results by a staggering 150%. I find it far more likely that they knew well in advance there was a severe problem and their first reaction was to spin so as not to contribute further to the cloud hanging over Solo.

Because industry estimates are mostly intended for internal benefit to see whether marketing is working or needs adjustment. Nobody in the general public pays attention. If anything, it tells us Disney was surprised too.

If anything it tells us that Disney has good awareness but failed to close the deal.

 

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

That's not quite what I mean. The magic stays alive (for me) if you never revisit a property and just do new stuff. When you do choose to revisit then it's important to not suddenly change things massively as that then has an impact on what came before.

If we see Darth Vader in costume in a new film and he now has a crippling fear of rebel soldiers with blasters that new information takes away from the intimidation of his OT appearances.

As a more recent example, the magic of Luke's scene in TFA is completely gone for me now as I can see Luke throwing the light saber away soon afterwards and then filling his face with milk from that disgusting animal. t:

And whatever Abrams does with Luke in IX is of a bit less interest to me now because of what's happened in TLJ. It has permanently killed something for me and I don't think there's a way back on that front. Doesn't mean I won't enjoy future SW films, especially ones that cover wholly new material, but it is what it is.

Couldn’t agree more with this

 

[dataSlave]

Because industry estimates are mostly intended for internal benefit to see whether marketing is working or needs adjustment. Nobody in the general public pays attention. If anything, it tells us Disney was surprised too.

If anything it tells us that Disney has good awareness but failed to close the deal.

That's not the case in practice. I saw quite few articles from major national media broadcasting the estimates ahead of time. Those exaggerated numbers can easily be seen as part of the hype machine that surrounds major studio releases now. If they'd admitted ahead of time that Solo was going to bomb, the OW numbers might have been even lower. So they lied.


The explanation you're pushing makes no sense.

If it was truly fan backlash, then no way would Solo' s tracking a few weeks out have been so robust.

This isn't about tracking a few weeks out. This is tracking a day our two out, just before the opening. And you're asking us to believe Disney was clueless with Solo soft opening the next day. A stretch to say the least.

I'm sure it played a small part, but more likely tracking was based on the general audience who got excited at Star Wars in the title and got less excited based on the lackluster marketing which utterly failed to sell Alden Ehrenreich as a replacement to Harrison Ford.

Again this doesn't match the timing at all. If the marketing was bad, surely Disney knew that at least a week before the opening, probably much earlier. If so that just supports the thesis that they lied. The only alternative where they were being honest and got blindsided days before the opening would require that the marketing was just great right up until 2 days from the premiere. Then it suddenly sucked. Again improbable to say the least. You don't have to accept any particular premise as to why Solo failed. But the alternative theses you're advocating really don't make sense.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Some of this thread is getting dangerously close to TLJ discussion again. Remember, this is a Solo BO thread guys. Debating if TLJ had an effect on the movie is one thing. Whether Lucasfilm should retcon the movie or elements of it, that is a TLJ topic that should be in its forum.

 

[dataSlave]

Tuesday: Solo just under $4 million. +34% hold from Monday was actually slightly better than DP2's +29%.


Not great but beats a sharp stick in the eye.

 

[Romannen]

Some Wall Street analyst today basically chalked this all up to poor marketing which I ultimately think we can all agree was the main culprit.

As I wrote elsewhere: how does the marketing for Solo differ from the marketing of other blockbusters? Don't they follow the same model, billboards, TV-spots, etc?

 

[MadVillainy]

As I wrote elsewhere: how does the marketing for Solo differ from the marketing of other blockbusters? Don't they follow the same model, billboards, TV-spots, etc?

But the billboards, tv spots, etc. weren't good in a creative sense. Imo. Especially the trailers
EDIT: actually the trailers were "fine" when they needed to be great

 

[Flint Marko]

As I wrote elsewhere: how does the marketing for Solo differ from the marketing of other blockbusters? Don't they follow the same model, billboards, TV-spots, etc?

I'm fairly certain the marketing kicked in later than any other comparable blockbuster. Someone can confirm this for me with exact dates, but I just remember getting that first teaser and going "oh wow, this comes out very soon".

Secondly, the marketing material made it look fairly disposable IMO. Not bad, but certainly not a "OMG I have to get out and watch this ASAP" type of thing. It just looked relatively generic, and when it's a movie that a lot of people don't think needs to exist, the trailers should have hit hard.

 

[Evil Twin]

That's not the case in practice. I saw quite few articles from major national media broadcasting the estimates ahead of time. Those exaggerated numbers can easily be seen as part of the hype machine that surrounds major studio releases now. If they'd admitted ahead of time that Solo was going to bomb, the OW numbers might have been even lower. So they lied.


The explanation you're pushing makes no sense.

This isn't about tracking a few weeks out. This is tracking a day our two out, just before the opening. And you're asking us to believe Disney was clueless with Solo soft opening the next day. A stretch to say the least.


Again this doesn't match the timing at all. If the marketing was bad, surely Disney knew that at least a week before the opening, probably much earlier. If so that just supports the thesis that they lied. The only alternative where they were being honest and got blindsided days before the opening would require that the marketing was just great right up until 2 days from the premiere. Then it suddenly sucked. Again improbable to say the least. You don't have to accept any particular premise as to why Solo failed. But the alternative theses you're advocating really don't make sense.

Deadline is not a major national news service for anyone that doesn't pay close attention to entertainment industry news. Deadline moves the box office about as much as this forum does. Deadline also isn't affiliated with Disney, has many sources within the industry who do their own tracking, and has little reason to report inaccurate news at risk of their own credibility.



Your explanation that Disney spun the numbers out of thin air in hopes of hyping a movie and independent news organizations just accepted them uncritically makes no sense.


I'm offering the exact opposite explanation. Solo was tracking well because of the Star Wars brand name, but the marketing stunk for selling the specific movie. As we got closer and closer to release and it became obvious that the movie they were advertising poorly was the actual film, with middling critical reviews, people decided that they didn't need to go. Just like with Justice League.



As far as a day or two out, estimates were already down and they kept crashing. Most analysts fully expected Solo to edge out Pirates of the Caribbean for the Memorial Day record. And it didn't come close. The fact that it kept falling below estimates, throughout the weekend, would seem to indicate that word of mouth was weak and anyone that was on the fence decided to spend their time elsewhere.



The fact that it was front loaded and interest collapsed seems to me to indicate that only the fans came out.



Then again, I thought the film fell into all the prequel traps and there wasn't much for the casual filmgoer. No stakes. No star in the lead role. Nudging fan service every other screen reminding of us Han's future adventures and removing all sense of suspense. New supporting characters that we barely get to know, and which we know have no long term importance. And a critical and audience verdict of a proverbial shrug.



Frankly, I think Solo was the perfect storm of a franchise overly reliant on nostalgia pitching a film that didn't appeal to the fans nor the casual filmgoer. Frankly, I haven't met a TLJ critic that actually boycotted Solo.