Solo Han Solo Movie Box office Thread - Part 1

[dataSlave]

No doubt. My point in all if this is there seems to be a lot of revisionist history going in when it comes to TFA in light of TLJ. Suddenly because people hated TLJ so much, the merits of TFA (which were there all along) have been brought to light. That's all I'm saying. Fandoms lose perspective on these things because everything these days is about the "here and now", this moment. When the emotions subside, that's when the real analysis kicks in.

I don't think it's revisionism so much as seeing what was there in starker contrast after Solo flopped. The box office said it all. TLJ opened almost as strong as TFA when the only reviews came from critics that Disney could influence. Once enough real people had seen the movie and talked to their friends, the numbers dropped like a rock. That's the REAL audience reaction isolated from pre-release hype by Disney and the professional critics.


OW for TLJ was $220 million, down only 11% from TFA's $248 million.
2nd WE for TLJ was $71.6 million, down 52% from TFA $149.2 million.
By the 5th and 6th WE TLJ was at $11.9 and $6.5 million vs TFA at $26.3 and $14.1 million. That's a drop of 55%.


DVD sales tell the same story. TLJ has sold fewer DVD's total than TFA did just in it's first week of release.

 

[RoastBeast]

A big part of the Solo box office equation is a lack of need for it- I mean, I have a Han Solo origin story in my head from all my obsession in the 70s and 80s and... so on. It's a movie I didn't really need. I spent a lot more time wondering how does the rebellion set up a functional government? than how did Han Solo become who he is? ...because backstory was all out there if you looked for it.

It doesn't mean other SW films can't be huge. This one was a special case.

 

[jmc]

This is objectively untrue these days. Kiri Heart, Rayne Roberts, Carrie Beck, Diana Williams, Leland Chee, Pablo Hidalgo, Matt Matin, Steve Blank, James Waugh, Josh Rimes, Stephen Feder and Cara Pardo. Which makes the story group makeup 7 men and 5 women. Which means...the story group is not mostly women. And even if it were, why is that a problem?

I never said it was.

 

[Stark Bauer]

It will be interesting to see how many screens Solo loses this weekend - it did better than I expected for this Tuesday but will continue to fall once Incredibles and JW drop.

I’m sticking with my previous prediction: final gross of $218-228 million domestic

 

[dataSlave]

$1.8, $2.2 and $1.6 million dailies so far this week. On track for $7 million for the week and slightly higher for the WE. That would put Solo at around $192 million domestic cume by Sunday. Should cross $200 million domestic in a couple of weeks but won't get a lot more than that.

 

[Warlock]

I think it should get to 210-215 domestic.

 

[sueb1863]

Looks like it's only going to be playing on one screen at each of my three local theaters this weekend.

 

[rayc1971]

Agreed. I argued after TLJ's BO drop after OW that Disney should rethink their budgeting for future SW films. If Ep IX does $1 billion WW they need to keep production costs under $250 million and marketing under $150 million to make a decent profit on the film. For future spinoffs they probably should target expenses more in line with the mid=level MCU movies.

No realistic amount of cost cutting would have made Solo profitable but if future spinoffs can gross $600 million WW Disney can make money with a $150 million production budget.

edit: If JWFK goes over $1 billion it will be on the strength of foreign audiences. The overseas market for action spectaculars with CGI, high speed chases, explosions, etc kept F&F going though more sequels than I ever thought it would get and a lot of comic book movies are doing twice are now getting a lot more of their global gross outside the US than inside the country.

thats the thing solo should not have cost more than last jedi or force awakens the budget should have been 150mill tops not 250 to 300 mill

 

[Ozbridge]

If Kennedy indeed is stepping down (]b]90%[/b] she's not), god holy **** I hope Iger just gives the gig to Hart out of spite for these morons.

Didn’t read whatever was posted in the previous pages but I think 99.9%.

 

[Silver Surfer]

So... $400m isn't happening, can it get to $375m?

 

[Ozbridge]

So... $400m isn't happening, can it get to $375m?

I don’t think we should expect anything more than 360M.

 

[dataSlave]

I don’t think we should expect anything more than 360M.

Based on current trends you're right. But Japan has yet to open. Could be $15-20 million more at a 40% split for Disney.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

 

[Silver Surfer]

50% drop according to Deadline, looks like it might fall behind IW next weekend. $375m is definitely not happening.

 

[Murdock103]

The box office for this movie is mind blowing.
Can not believe it did so poorly.

 

[Iceman]

Will fall behind Deadpool 2 in dailies soon.

 

[Iceman]

Apparently Incredibles is looking absolutely huge, $175m plus. So it could weigh on everything.

https://deadline.com/2018/06/incredibles-2-tag-superfly-weekend-box-office-1202411262/

 

[Ozbridge]

Kinda hoped Incredibles wasn’t so front loaded. I was expecting 2xx from the Thursday preview.

Anyway any double feature help is good for Solo. Next week drop is gonna be tough considering it’s off Father Day + Incredibles weekend and JW.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Incredibles 2 with a hypothetical first weekend of $180M+ with Finding Dory's first weekend to total gross multiplier gets it to $648M+ domestic (animated movies are known for higher multipliers and sequels for lower multipliers though the 14 year gap between releases will be an asset.) That's more than all the recent SW movies except TFA if it plays out that way.

 

[Iceman]

Crazy stuff. Episode IX is going to be quite hard to predict after TLJ's mixed fan reception and Solo's box office. My prior predictions were all based on us getting 2 more films like TFA and R1, and received and performing in a similar way.

 

[Micromind]

Looking at the poll, 14 people predicted right.

 

[Johnglen]

Apparently Incredibles is looking absolutely huge, $175m plus. So it could weigh on everything.

https://deadline.com/2018/06/incredibles-2-tag-superfly-weekend-box-office-1202411262/

Infinity war doesn’t seem to be facing any problems. Will fall less than 20% from the previous weekend with the actuals.

 

[Ozbridge]

Infinity war doesn’t seem to be facing any problems. Will fall less than 20% from the previous weekend with the actuals.

The power of corporate synergy (though it's just in paper since the revenue Disney gets goes to both movies' box office gross).

Looking at the poll, 14 people predicted right.

Well in my defense I created the poll last July.

If I had created it late December it would had been in the 200M-350M range with 25M intervals.

 

[Warlock]

Friday total was 2.33 for a running total of 186.1m in the US.

 

[Stark Bauer]

It will be interesting to see how many screens Solo loses this weekend - it did better than I expected for this Tuesday but will continue to fall once Incredibles and JW drop.

I’m sticking with my previous prediction: final gross of $218-228 million domestic

I’m adjusting my final domestic gross prediction to $210-$220 million USD