Hit, Sleeper or Bomb ?

[Bubonic]

I said sleeper.
That means it'll hit people unexpectedly right?

 

[JaD]

I showed trailer caps of TIH to some friends, and still they're having second thoughts because of the first Hulk film. I think with it being so soon of a "reboot" some people will pass in thinking not much will change or something. But I still have high hopes that this will be a sleeper hit, at least.

 

[Bubonic]

Regardless of first impressions linked to the previous film, once people see it, and word of mouth is ignited, they'll probably mushrooming interest related to the fact that finally, in their minds, they'll rest assured that this isn't a sequel to the 2003 film.

 

[Ahura Mazda]

The probabilities will go with sleeper given thehistory of the franchise. If this movie is good it will succeed.

 

[Kirmit]

Regardless of first impressions linked to the previous film, once people see it, and word of mouth is ignited, they'll probably mushrooming interest related to the fact that finally, in their minds, they'll rest assured that this isn't a sequel to the 2003 film.

Agreed, even if it doesn't have the greatest opening, if the movie is that good, word and mouth will make it a success.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah but in all likelyhood it will have mixed reactions among everyone. If the critics hammer this film its going to hurt... people won't be wasting money on Hulk again if they get crap reviews.

 

[ultimatefan]

My most optimistic bet would be a kinda sleeper hit, IF the movie´s good. Let´s make no mistake, this movie has to rebuild interest for the franchise. But if Batman was able to resurrect after Batman & Robin, who´s to say Hulk can´t?

 

[Sarg92]

I think the movie is going to be a hit. It may not make a big opening but when the word of mouth kicks in then this movie is gonna be huge if it is good enough. But I am sure that if this movie doesn't perform so much in theaters then the DVD sales are gonna be big like Batman Begins.

 

[Bannerless Hulk]

I mentioned the movie to a couple of artsy-sort of friends over the weekend and they 1.) actually knew about the movie and 2.) were impressed with Norton being in it. Again, Norton comes through.

They also seemed delighted when I mentioned that Liv Tyler is in it. Tim Roth they were less familiar with, but respected, and William Hurt they weren't familiar with at all.

 

[Knightsaber Priss]

I'm hoping this movie will be a pleasantly surprising sleeper success.

 

[RogueDK]

I voted that TIH will be a hit. At least that's what I'm hoping...

 

[Skippy Roberts]

Note: That ShoWest survey was taken by all members PRIOR to the event and prior to the trailers release.

Something that article fails to mention.

I was gonna say. The media is silly.

 

[ironwez20]

well if it didnt take them so damn long to show the teaser then maybe this would have tdk hype

 

[Skippy Roberts]

I like how it is sneaking up on everyone. Next trailer should be fun to see yep.

 

[The Sarge]

I don't think 'Sleeper' is a viable choice because The Incredible Hulk is a fairly big-budget film, a 'Sleeper' usually refers to a smaller-budget, usually independant film that becomes a surprise hit. Studio people will be very disappointed if TIH underperforms...

agreed. I don't think sleeper can really apply.

I think the film will probably do well. Superhero films tend to do alright, and Hulk pretty well known. The first movie, even though it was met with mixed reviews, did alright. It might not be too common knowledge at the moment that they're making a hulk film, but I'm sure awareness will start to greatly increase in the next while.

 

[combusticator]

I think I know what they are implying with "sleeper," but different terminology would better describe it.

The first Bourne Identity, wasn't considered a huge blockbuster, had just a "decent" opening. It wasn't a sleeper hit either, its similarity to a "sleeper" though, is good word made it STAY consistently strong (even grow on some weekends), unlike most blockbusters that die off quickly.

Batman Begins KIND OF did this, it DID have a pretty big opening still, but not AS big as SOME blockbusters, but its good word made it stay in longer...

With that said, I think that is what will happen with The Hulk...have a pretty good opening, not HUGE, but its good word will make it stay really strong in theatres for a long time, and set it up for a following TENT POLE release with ITS sequel (a la Bourne Sequels or The Dark Knight coming this July)

 

[swataz]

Hopefully this movie will have some decent push toward the opening, like a Norton interview on Access Hollywood or some other outlet.

I believe this movie's biggest enemy will be lack of public knowledge.

 

[moguy]

If this movie is anything other than excellent, it will bomb.

Almost everyone will view this as a sequel despite what some people on this board think.

Unfortunately the last movie, followed a box office pattern that bodes poorly for sequels. It had lots of buzz with an excellent opening, but then plummeted on poor word of mouth. (Nearly 50% of it's B.O. was on the opening weekend).

Movies like the Bourne Identity, Batman Begins, The Matrix, POTC, followed patterns that bode very well for future sequels. Decent opening, followed by good word of mouth and a long run in the theaters (BB's opening weekend accounted for less than 25% of it's B.O.)

So with the very poor trending of the Ang Lee film, and the general public impression that this film is a sequel to that one, I do anticipate a lackluster opening for this film (same as what happened to Batman Begins following in the wake of B&R).

Now if the film turns out to be excellent, word of mouth can give the film legs and it can hopefully follow the BB pattern and pull in a respectable B.O. over the summer. This would redeem the franchise and put it in a good position for a sequel.

However, it the film is anything other than excellent, it will likely follow the typical pattern of this genre to be front loaded. That means an end return of 2-3 times opening weekend based on how well it is received.

Even a 2.5 return on a 50M opening would probably be received as disappointment.

So to summarize, if the film is excellent it will be a sleeper.

I think being a hit is very unlikely.

I've got my fingers crossed that it surprises me (in a good way).

 

[Spade]

I vote it as a sleeper. I really doubt they invested more cash into this concept with no care as to the quality of it. Plus, Norton has the positive votes of many moviegoers; just having him around will attract many who would not have given this the time of day. It probably won't be a hit, but it should be enough to get us a sequel.

 

[moguy]

Unfortunately I think people are putting far too much weight on Norton.

He is a fine actor, but is certainly not a box office draw.

His highest grossing film (by far) to date is the Italian Job at 106M, and that was an ensemble film.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=edwardnorton.htm

His name alone won't have much impact on this film's box office.

 

[Savage]

Sleeper. Word of mouth will be what makes this movie.

 

[FaT_tONle]

Unfortunately I think people are putting far too much weight on Norton.

He is a fine actor, but is certainly not a box office draw.

His highest grossing film (by far) to date is the Italian Job at 106M, and that was an ensemble film.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/people/chart/?view=Actor&id=edwardnorton.htm

His name alone won't have much impact on this film's box office.

True... Norton did this for the money... simple as that... if it flops... its on him and Letterrier... simple as that. And Marvel of course since they paid the bills...

 

[FrostBite]

True... Norton did this for the money... simple as that... if it flops... its on him and Letterrier... simple as that. And Marvel of course since they paid the bills...

Excusez-moi ?

For the money?

Where have you been?

He did it for the facts of him A) being a fan and B) being given the opportunity to write the screenplay which was the biggest factor in the whole decision. Then lastly a pay check, as ALL actors do it for the money. It's called food, you need it to survive, and you need money for food.

If it flops it won't only be on them, but it will be on the previous film, the decision to reboot a franchise so quickly, and the complete absence for any strong marketing decisions.

Think before you type.

 

[FrostBite]

Yeah but in all likelyhood it will have mixed reactions among everyone. If the critics hammer this film its going to hurt... people won't be wasting money on Hulk again if they get crap reviews.

Hulk 03 didn't get crap reviews though. In fact, many people go see tons of movies with crap reviews.

Don't really know how that logic really applies to it's success, critics are a joke lately for most general audience members.

 

[moguy]

Critics don't help much for openeing weekend, but they certainly do impact the movies "legs".

Poorly reviewed movies almost always follow a steeper proprotional drop than well reviewed films. The word proportional is key. That's why this movie has to be really good to have a chance. It certainly won't have a Spiderman like opening, so it will need legs to be a success.