Logan Logan Box Office Prediction Thread

[LoganPool]

$1,552,700 Wednesday, down 35%. Domestic now at $189,909,554.

Thursday will bring it up to $191 M... which means we could potentially see it break $200M on Sunday!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah if it doesn't break $200 million (and I think it will) it will be verrrrry close.

 

[StormC]

That 700 million WW prediction was inflated like I thought, but if it manages to crawl to 600M that would still be amazing (Japan still has to open, right?).

 

[EnDz0n3]

What was The Wolverine's Japan Box Office take?

 

[Superhero 101]

Japan won't be that huge. the entire for TW DOFP and XA were around 7 million

 

[search_4_truth]

My prediction is around $650 M worldwide and $220 M domestic. I would love for it to pass X3 and DoFP domestically though, even if I doubt it is going to happen.

 

[permaximum]

That 700 million WW prediction was inflated like I thought, but if it manages to crawl to 600M that would still be amazing (Japan still has to open, right?).

Lol ?

700M is a lock. Go to boxofficemojo and do some research. I believe it even has potential to reach 750m.

 

[permaximum]

What was The Wolverine's Japan Box Office take?

$10M for DOFP, $8M for The Wolverine. This will be around 11-12.

 

[permaximum]

Japan won't be that huge. the entire for TW DOFP and XA were around 7 million

Wrong numbers.

 

[permaximum]

My prediction is around $650 M worldwide and $220 M domestic. I would love for it to pass X3 and DoFP domestically though, even if I doubt it is going to happen.

My prediction is 725-755 and I will quote every god damn Disney fan message here when it ends.

 

[Ozbridge]

Lol ?

700M is a lock. Go to boxofficemojo and do some research. I believe it even has potential to reach 750m.

On OS side Logan BO has been like:

WK 1 (24-26/2): 159M
WK 2 (3-5/3): 69M (-57%)
WK 3 (10-12/3): 31M (-55)

Weekdays of Week 1 (27/2-2/3): 56.272M
Weekdays of Week 2 (6-9/3): 24.143M (-57%)

And the 9-day period from 13 to 21/3 it made 15.47M. This is obviously because there's a huge 350M OW WW, so I think the drop from now on will be quite softer. I optimistically project a 3 x 15.47 = 46M left in the OS markets except Japan. Since Deadpool made 18M there, I'll be optimistic again and project a 15M total for Logan. Son in the end Logan's OS BO is
346 + 46 + 15 = 407M.

On Domestic side:

WK 1 (3-5/3): 88M
WK 2 (10-12/3): 38M (-57%)
WK 3 (17-19/3): 18M (-53%)

Weekdays of week 1 (6-9/3): 26.4M
Weekdays of week 2 (13-16/3): 13.6M (-48%)
Weekdays of week 3 (20-23/3) (estimated): 6.9M (-49%)

Since its 1st and 2nd WK were also OW of Kong and Beauty and the (Box Office) Beast and there isn't any large competition soon, I optimistically project that Logan will drop 45% per week in weekend and 40% in weekdays until the WK April 14-16 (when FF8 drops), which is when I'l project a 55% drop. So:

As of 25/3: 191.3M (estimated)
24-26/3 9.8M Total 201.1M
27-30/3 4.1M Total 205.2M
31/3-2/4 5.4M Total 210.6M
3-6/4 2.5M Total 213.1M
7-9/4 3.0M Total 216.1M
10-13/4 1.5M Total 217.6M
14-16/4 1.3M Total 218.9M

The rest of its run: 2.6 for total 221.5M.

So in my (already quite generous projection) Logan is heading for 407M OS and 221.5M domestic for 628.5M WW. So can you please elaborate your project because I'm curious how you allocate the your locked 700M WW BO into domestic share/ OS share?

My prediction is 725-755 and I will quote every god damn Disney fan message here when it ends.

I don't believe there's any Disney fan message here (where're they???) And in case Logan does reach 725M WW can you please group all those quotes into one post? I do believe that posting continuous posts like you did above is counted as spam here. If you want to add something and your post is the latest post in the thread you can just edit your old post.

 

[harlequinade]

Fox would be very smart to re-release the film in Oscar season. That could make them more money + remind Academy members how awesome the film is

 

[permaximum]

On OS side Logan BO has been like:

WK 1 (24-26/2): 159M
WK 2 (3-5/3): 69M (-57%)
WK 3 (10-12/3): 31M (-55)

Weekdays of Week 1 (27/2-2/3): 56.272M
Weekdays of Week 2 (6-9/3): 24.143M (-57%)

And the 9-day period from 13 to 21/3 it made 15.47M. This is obviously because there's a huge 350M OW WW, so I think the drop from now on will be quite softer. I optimistically project a 3 x 15.47 = 46M left in the OS markets except Japan. Since Deadpool made 18M there, I'll be optimistic again and project a 15M total for Logan. Son in the end Logan's OS BO is
346 + 46 + 15 = 407M.

On Domestic side:

WK 1 (3-5/3): 88M
WK 2 (10-12/3): 38M (-57%)
WK 3 (17-19/3): 18M (-53%)

Weekdays of week 1 (6-9/3): 26.4M
Weekdays of week 2 (13-16/3): 13.6M (-48%)
Weekdays of week 3 (20-23/3) (estimated): 6.9M (-49%)

Since its 1st and 2nd WK were also OW of Kong and Beauty and the (Box Office) Beast and there isn't any large competition soon, I optimistically project that Logan will drop 45% per week in weekend and 40% in weekdays until the WK April 14-16 (when FF8 drops), which is when I'l project a 55% drop. So:

As of 25/3: 191.3M (estimated)
24-26/3 9.8M Total 201.1M
27-30/3 4.1M Total 205.2M
31/3-2/4 5.4M Total 210.6M
3-6/4 2.5M Total 213.1M
7-9/4 3.0M Total 216.1M
10-13/4 1.5M Total 217.6M
14-16/4 1.3M Total 218.9M

The rest of its run: 2.6 for total 221.5M.

So in my (already quite generous projection) Logan is heading for 407M OS and 221.5M domestic for 628.5M WW. So can you please elaborate your project because I'm curious how you allocate the your locked 700M WW BO into domestic share/ OS share?



I don't believe there's any Disney fan message here (where're they???) And in case Logan does reach 725M WW can you please group all those quotes into one post? I do believe that posting continuous posts like you did above is counted as spam here. If you want to add something and your post is the latest post in the thread you can just edit your old post.

You're wrong on so many levels. For these kind of predictions you have to use a penalized regression method like weighted ridge regression, or lasso or elastic.net. I won't get into the details since it's obvious you don't know anything about them but for comparison here's a simple thing for you.

The last Wolverine movie with good reviews was DOFP and Logan's box office graph follows an extremely similar path. The only difference is DOFP was released in a 4-day holiday weekend.

After 3 days DOFP did 90.8M and with the 4th-day of the holiday weekend it did $110.6M. Logan did 88.4M in 3 days, 95.6M after 4 days.

The 4-day holiday weekend gave DOFP a 15-million dollar advantage. But that advantage wasn't going to stay because for Logan it made sense that it would spread into the whole run of the movie. What about after 2 weeks since then? The difference between them decreased to $5M. Logan has already captured that missing $10m in just 2 weeks.

Because with 56.9% 2nd weekend drop, Logan has the best hold in the franchise. For comparison DOFP dropped by 64.2%. Thanks to the best reviews in the genre (par TDK) its strong legs are very likely to stay.

By the end of the weekend after this one, it should catch DOFP domestic total of it's time and then eventually surpass it.

This is why $235M for domestic is a lock.

On the WW side of things, DOFP did $747M with 31.3% domestic.

2% of the OS gross came from Japan. When we account for that it becomes a 32/68 ratio.

Logan's ratio is currently around 35/65. But when it releases in Japan it should be close to The Wolverine's ratio of 32/68 because a solo Wolverine movie's Japan gross captures 3% of the OS gross. But in the worst case scenerio let's assume it will be around 33/67.

31.3./68.7 = 233 / 747
33/67 = 235+ / ?

? is something around 725-755 depending on it's legs.

So saying it won't reach 700 is very absurd.


As for the spam/flood thing, let moderators handle that kind of thing. I can assure you they're quite active.

 

[Ozbridge]

You're wrong on so many levels. For these kind of predictions you have to use a penalized regression method like weighted ridge regression, or lasso or elastic.net.

(Never mind me, I just find it funny).

And I assure you that I do know what weighted ridge and LASSO regressions are, my master thesis used fused lasso after all. I just think that for this type of BO prediction we can just use comparable films' BO to project. Using OLS is already a bit too extreme, let alone other fancy models.

We'll see. Anyone wanna bet?

Ok I do. What do you want to bet?

 

[permaximum]

Your generous projection predicts $628.5M WW and $221.5M Domestic.

I can bet $1k that it will surpass both of them.

 

[Ozbridge]

Your generous projection predicts $628.5M WW and $221.5M Domestic.

I can bet $1k that it will surpass both of them.

Logan is going to break 700 million, 100%. You guys are bad at maths or what? The question is will it pass DOFP? In ticket sales, it will definetely surpass DOFP but in gross, it's still in the air.

It's about where Doctor Strange was after two weeks, and while the critical acclaim will help it's BO total, the R rating will offset that somewhat. 650 is probably safe.

We'll see. Anyone wanna bet?

Shouldn't the bet be against your original offer with Samuron (and others) about a 100% 700 million?

 

[permaximum]

Shouldn't the bet be against your original offer with Samuron (and others) about a 100% 700 million?

There's too much difference between your generous projection and 700 million.

So if I bet $1k for 700m you should bet $2k. If you win you get $1k, if I win I get $2k. If it's OK for you, I'm in for $700m.

 

[BaelaTargaryen]

http://deadline.com/2017/03/beauty-...ers-life-chips-weekend-box-office-1202050843/

Though 20th Century Fox’s Logan was third on Thursday with $1.4M, Wolverine’s running cume stands at $191.3M with $200M within its grasp this weekend.

 

[Iceman]

Very nice.

 

[permaximum]

http://deadline.com/2017/03/beauty-...ers-life-chips-weekend-box-office-1202050843/

It's definetely going to pass $200M mark this weekend.

 

[Ozbridge]

There's too much difference between your generous projection and 700 million.

So if I bet $1k for 700m you should bet $2k. If you win you get $1k, if I win I get $2k. If it's OK for you, I'm in for $700m.

Oh I'm never as confident that it will made under 620M as you are confident that it'll make over 700M. I think 620M is a good target but it might develop strong late leg and crawl to 650M. I was referring to your original bet that you think it will 100% lock for 700M. THAT I'm certain will be near impossible.

 

[permaximum]

Oh I'm never as confident that it will made under 620M as you are confident that it'll make over 700M. I think 620M is a good target but it might develop strong late leg and crawl to 650M. I was referring to your original bet that you think it will 100% lock for 700M. THAT I'm certain will be near impossible.

If it's near impossible, then you have no problem with the bet. The bet is very generous for you.

I bet $1k
You bet $2k.
Winner takes it all.

 

[Ozbridge]

If it's near impossible, then you have no problem with the bet. The bet is very generous for you.

I bet $1k
You bet $2k.
Winner takes it all.

So you meant if it makes more than 700M WW then you win and if it makes less than 700M then I win?

 

[permaximum]

So you meant if it makes more than 700M WW then you win and if it makes less than 700M then I win?

Exactly. Just you have to bet $2k for my $1k.

 

[Ozbridge]

Exactly. Just you have to bet $2k for my $1k.

Oh then I'm out, I'm confident but that's kind of unfair for me.

And (1) I'm just a poor student, (2) I just want to bet for fun, not that huge kind of money (2k can pay my rent for 3 months), so I'm kind of hesitant about that figure.

Anyway I hope you can find other members to make a bet with though (hopefully someone dare to, it'll be fun for me to watch). Even if it doesn't make 700M then once it reach 650M you can still quote my post and laugh at my prediction. Hopefully it'll be entertaining enough for you