MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Lily Adler]

If this and Superman underperform, the future of CBMs does not look good.

 

[jokesonm3]

Marvel's next 4 films are all highly anticipated IP's, if phase 6 doesn't bring us close to the 2010's of box office performances with two (maybe three if we count Spiderman) event-level superhero films then the genre might really be doomed.

 

[Sithborg]

Those three should make a billion, easy. Its the 2 billion levels that are expected that I am hesitant about.

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm still not convinced Fantastic 4 is outgrossing Superman in the opening weekend in North America. But I'm also pretty surprised with these box office projections. I would love it if it opens over $125 million in North America.

I would rank Fantastic 4, as my #3 Marvel ip, just behind the X-Men and Spider-Man. I didn't really care about Avengers until the announcement in 2006. Its time for the First Family to join the big leagues at the box office.

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

Has Fantastic Four ever really been a big draw outside of comic books? I know the 2005 movie had a great opening weekend, but its legs were poor. It has always felt like a C level property to me, one that no has been able to crack (outside of The Incredibles). I get that Marvel fans have this whole ''the First Family are back where they belong'' mentality, but does the general audience really care about that?

It will be really interesting to see if audiences embrace this version beyond the opening weekend.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Has Fantastic Four ever really been a big draw outside of comic books? I know the 2005 movie had a great opening weekend, but its legs were poor. It has always felt like a C level property to me, one that no has been able to crack (outside of The Incredibles). I get that Marvel fans have this whole ''the First Family are back where they belong'' mentality, but does the general audience really care about that?

It will be really interesting to see if audiences embrace this version beyond the opening weekend.

They certainly have more general audience awareness than the Guardians of the Galaxy or Doctor Strange or Ant-Man did before they became what they are now. It's the job of the movie to make you fall in love with the characters

 

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

They certainly have more general audience awareness than the Guardians of the Galaxy or Doctor Strange or Ant-Man did before they became what they are now. It's the job of the movie to make you fall in love with the characters

That's certainly true... but those characters felt like proper introductions for audiences at large. The curiosity factor. We've already met the FF twice before.

I think the movie looks great and I want it to do well. I'm just curious to see how audiences react this time around and if there is truly sustained interest in the property. Marvel have made it work in the past... but current Marvel is shaky at best.

 

[lenz]

That's certainly true... but those characters felt like proper introductions for audiences at large. The curiosity factor. We've already met the FF twice before.

I think the movie looks great and I want it to do well. I'm just curious to see how audiences react this time around and if there is truly sustained interest in the property. Marvel have made it work in the past... but current Marvel is shaky at best.

A month ago I was much more optimistic about the film's box office prospects and the films quality.

I agree it looks really good, but they also recently cut out 15 minutes of the film and have now got it down to a runtime in The Incredible Hulk and The Marvels range. This is a concern obviously. The Superman international numbers are also troubling and they just underscore further how much more unpredictable forecasting box office has become.

I think the opening will be pretty strong in NA, but it's legs will depend on multiple factors whose impacts are just unknown at this time.

 

[Spider-Fan]

That's certainly true... but those characters felt like proper introductions for audiences at large. The curiosity factor. We've already met the FF twice before.

I think the movie looks great and I want it to do well. I'm just curious to see how audiences react this time around and if there is truly sustained interest in the property. Marvel have made it work in the past... but current Marvel is shaky at best.

But that isn't immediately a deal breaker. The recent Dune wasn't the first go at the story, but it wasn't derailed by the prior attempts. It just depends on how good of a movie they made. Which I think Marvel has done a good job at showcasing this new version as a major departure from the other ones.

 

[Spider-Fan]

A month ago I was much more optimistic about the film's box office prospects and the films quality.

I agree it looks really good, but they also recently cut about 15 minutes of the film out and have now got it down to a runtime in The Incredible Hulk and The Marvels range. This is a concern obviously. The Superman international numbers are also concerning and just underscores further how much more unpredictable forecasting box office has become.

I think the opening will be pretty strong in NA, but it's legs will depend on multiple factors whose impacts are just unknown at this time.

I am less concerned by the new runtime than I would have if they did like a month of reshoots and then it was short. This looks to me like maybe test screenings indicated that it might play better to a broad audience shorter. Yeah, it's similar runtime as TIH, but also Thor and Doctor Strange and Ant-Man as well. And all those movies are good

 

[lenz]

I am less concerned by the new runtime than I would have if they did like a month of reshoots and then it was short. This looks to me like maybe test screenings indicated that it might play better to a broad audience shorter. Yeah, it's similar runtime as TIH, but also Thor and Doctor Strange and Ant-Man as well. And all those movies are good

Good points, hopefully that's the case.

I generally like the longer films more, so a bit of bias there.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

I think it’s better to leave an audience wanting more than leaving them exhausted.

That said this is a team / ensemble movie where a bit more run time (runway) might have been appropriate. Though true the first Incredibles had a similar runtime.

We’ll just have to see for ourselves.

 

[jokesonm3]

Yeah under 2 hour films might become the norm for non event level films.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Even I have to admit I am a bit surprised by how much the international market has changed. And it's not just CBM's either.

I think we are just at a point where the event films/films the GA deem important will make big money. Like Deadpool and Wolverine. But something like Thunderbolts... doesn't have a lot of interest outside of hardcore fans, even if it's good. On top of that Marvel dropped the ball on their story narrative post pandemic. It doesn't feel as overarching like the Infinity saga did. Dr Doom hasn't even been teased much. That's why I'm looking forward to the X-Men reboot. Feige has said he has a 10 year plan for the mutant saga. I think that will return the MCU to its cohesive infinity saga era.

For right now I'm thinking maybe 250-350 for First steps OS. Ngl, the Superman numbers have me a bit shook though.

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think it’s better to leave an audience wanting more than leaving them exhausted.

That said this is a team / ensemble movie where a bit more run time (runway) might have been appropriate. Though true the first Incredibles had a similar runtime.

We’ll just have to see for ourselves.

I’m one of the biggest FF fans there is, but even I thought: “Red Ghost? Really?”

I think one of the most difficult but also most important things a filmmaker can do is cut out things that are cool but don’t really progress the story.

I’m not a fan of “director’s cuts”. A good editor can cut things that the director loves but are just unnecessary diversions to the audience.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

Wasn't Red Ghost just going to be part of the opening montage, to catch the audience up on who this version of the Fantastic Four are? I can't imagine why they would need to cut any of that sequence for time, as I can't imagine it was going to be that long.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Wasn't Red Ghost just going to be part of the opening montage, to catch the audience up on who this version of the Fantastic Four are? I can't imagine why they would need to cut any of that sequence for time, as I can't imagine it was going to be that long.

We don't know. Maybe he had a subplot in the movie, and they cut it hence the runtime being shorter now. We don't really know. All we can do is guess

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

Wasn't Red Ghost just going to be part of the opening montage, to catch the audience up on who this version of the Fantastic Four are? I can't imagine why they would need to cut any of that sequence for time, as I can't imagine it was going to be that long.

I don’t think they’d hire John Malkovich for a flash of a newspaper headline.

 

[psylockolussus]

Marvel movies that opened over 100 million (3-day weekend)

1. Spider-Man
2. X-Men: The Last Stand
3. Spider-Man 3
4. Iron Man 2
5. The Avengers
6. Iron Man 3
7. Avengers: Age of Ultron
8. Deadpool
9. Captain America: Civil War
10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
11. Spider-Man: Homecoming
12. Thor: Ragnarok
13. Black Panther
14. Avengers: Infinity War
15. Deadpool 2
16. Captain Marvel
17. Avengers: Endgame
18. Spider-Man: No Way Home
19. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
20. Thor: Love and Thunder
21. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
22. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
23. Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3
24. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
25. Deadpool & Wolverine
26. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (next next weekend)

26 out of 78

 

[lenz]

Spider-Man 2 and Far From Home would have easily crossed 100 million, but they were both released mid-week.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I'd prefer a tightly edited film that lends itself to audiences making multiple visits to the theater. Elements like that give a solid film legs because people won't feel that they have to sacrifice a huge chunk of time to go back and rewatch a movie (versus 3-hour long movies like Titanic, which was a commitment for multiple theater showings).

 

[DarkKnight88]

I mean, IF we’re talking box office and not preferences, length has very little in the way of how much a film makes, long or short.

I mean, most of the top 10 highest grossing films are all over 2 and a half hours including 3 Marvel films lol

 

[Spider-Fan]

I'd prefer a tightly edited film that lends itself to audiences making multiple visits to the theater. Elements like that give a solid film legs because people won't feel that they have to sacrifice a huge chunk of time to go back and rewatch a movie (versus 3-hour long movies like Titanic, which was a commitment for multiple theater showings).

Didn't stop Endgame or Titanic or Avatar from getting that repeat business though. The movie's quality matters more than the runtime. I aint worried about the runtime, but just commenting on the point about 3+ hrs being a commitment

 

[Detective Conan]

 

[lenz]

That is the range its been in for awhile. It could still go higher or lower at this point. I'd say $110-115 million opening seems right.

Pre-sales are not doing well in Korea and China (both former MCU strongholds). Hollywood films in general aren't getting the traction in those markets like they used to.