MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[Sithborg]

Actuals are out.

Domestic
$117,644,828

International
$99,058,811

Worldwide
$216,703,639

Not bad, Marvel's First Family ,not bad at all!

I really do not subscribe to some fans' pessimism. The movie has had a very successful OW, and will be the highest grossing Fantastic Four movie in a matter of days.

This and Superman have had a very similar OW, and that's two franchises which were run into the ground theatrically.

I call that a clear rebound for DC and Marvel's original success stories.

Why worry about the two Avengers movies coming up? Let's enjoy the moment for once. Celebrate the Fantastic Four!

I think there are some valid concerns by how front loaded FF was this weekend.

 

[psylockolussus]

A lot of MCU films are frontloaded but that shouldn't take away the success it received in the opening weekend. Give credit where credit is due.

 

[Primal Slayer]

They are both half a billion dollar movies. The expected ROI on a half billion spent on a movie? Well, remember the honest answer was that Avengers 1 NEEDED a billion.

MCU's opening weekend (Friday to Sunday, North America)
$357,115,007 Endgame
$260,138,569 No Way Home
$257,698,183 Infinity War
$211,435,291 Deadpool & Wolverine
$207,438,708 Avengers
$202,003,951 Black Panther
$191,271,109 Age of Ultron
$187,420,998 Multiverse of Madness
$181,339,761 Wakanda Forever
$179,139,142 Civil War
$174,144,585 Iron Man 3
$153,433,423 Captain Marvel
$146,510,104 Vol. 2
$144,165,107 Love and Thunder
$122,744,989 Ragnarok
$128,122,480 Iron Man 2
$117,644,828 First Steps
$117,027,503 Homecoming
$118,414,021 Volume 3
$106,109,650 Quantumania
$98,618,668 Iron Man
$95,023,721 Winter Soldier
$94,320,883 Guardians
$92,579,212 Far from Home
$88,842,603 Brave New World
$85,737,841 Dark World
$85,058,311 Doctor Strange
$80,366,312 Black Widow
$75,812,205 Ant-Man and the Wasp
$75,388,688 Shang-Chi
$74,300,608 Thunderbolts*
$71,297,219 Eternals
$65,723,338 Thor
$65,058,524 First Avenger
$57,225,526 Ant-Man
$55,414,050 Incredible Hulk
$46,110,859 Marvels

20th MCU film to open over $100 million in North America. 17th highest opening weekend for a MCU film.

And 3rd highest none sequel. Not bad

 

[psylockolussus]

Top international markets:
$12,143,842 Mexico
$10,958,375 UK/Ireland
$5,985,554 France
$5,058,115 Brazil
$4,813,445 Australia
$4,425,553 China
$4,209,529 Italy
$3,129,444 Spain
$3,007,565 Germany

 

[SomeOldGuy]

10.4 Monday per ERC. Solid number.

 

[psylockolussus]

10.4 Monday per ERC. Solid number.

And its likely to get another 10 million in Tuesday.

I hope it crosses 500 million globally. But I think 450 million is more realistic right now.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

And its likely to get another 10 million in Tuesday.

I hope it crosses 500 million globally. But I think 450 million is more realistic right now.

Should be more like 13+ today with the discount Tuesday bump.

I still feel pretty good about 500. August is empty so it has weeks to leg it out.

 

[Spider-Fan]

I still think it can get there. 300 domestic is what I would say target goal is, and 200 international which it's already halfway to. That would get us to 500. So, I still feel good about it

 

[psylockolussus]

Domestic (56.4%)
$128,065,547 (4-day)

International (43.6%)
$99,058,811

Worldwide
$227,124,358

 

[donuts]

I still think it can get there. 300 domestic is what I would say target goal is, and 200 international which it's already halfway to. That would get us to 500. So, I still feel good about it

Yeah, I believe that $500M is in the books for Fantastic Four. And I think it's going to do better than that internationally, based on how it's doing in Europe (better than Superman in several countries).

It might not have the same legs, but it's also not dropping like a stone, I don't think.

 

[psylockolussus]

Why Superhero Movies Aren't as Successful at the Box Office Any More

Why are superhero movies failing at the box office or not reaching their potential in recent times? Here are the reasons explored.

www.superherohype.com

I keep seeing articles like that one, which makes me more impressed that Fantastic 4 earned over 100 million in 3 days.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Why Superhero Movies Aren't as Successful at the Box Office Any More

Why are superhero movies failing at the box office or not reaching their potential in recent times? Here are the reasons explored.

www.superherohype.com

I keep seeing articles like that one, which makes me more impressed that Fantastic 4 earned over 100 million in 3 days.

Well, no offense to the author of the piece, but has he looked at the numbers lately? Superman will likely pass JW Rebirth this weekend to become the top-grossing film of the summer domestically and take the No. 3 overall spot on the 2025 domestic box office list behind Minecraft and L&S. Meanwhile, F4 is heading into the high 200s at least domestically and is looking to swipe the No. 5 overall spot from Sinners. If those are considered unsuccessful at the box office, then maybe his definition of success is a wee bit high?

(And yes I know OS is a different story, but that has to do mainly with the collapse of China and Korea as theatrical markets and the acceleration of streaming and piracy, issues that are not limited to the superhero genre.)

 

[SomeOldGuy]

14.2, +36% vs Monday, on discount Tuesday, per ERC. Slightly bigger % jump than Superman’s first Tuesday. Very good number.

 

[Carlo Comicus]

Deadline says 46 millions in the second weekend.

 

[Superhero 101]

How are Overseas numbers looking?

 

[psylockolussus]

Well, no offense to the author of the piece, but has he looked at the numbers lately? Superman will likely pass JW Rebirth this weekend to become the top-grossing film of the summer domestically and take the No. 3 overall spot on the 2025 domestic box office list behind Minecraft and L&S. Meanwhile, F4 is heading into the high 200s at least domestically and is looking to swipe the No. 5 overall spot from Sinners. If those are considered unsuccessful at the box office, then maybe his definition of success is a wee bit high?

(And yes I know OS is a different story, but that has to do mainly with the collapse of China and Korea as theatrical markets and the acceleration of streaming and piracy, issues that are not limited to the superhero genre.)

I think the general public will see what they want to see... in cinemas - Deadpool & Wolverine, Superman and now The Fantastic 4: First Steps are examples that comic book movies can still be successful at the box office. Though international numbers aren't as high as they used be, in general.

The rest like Brave New World, Thunderbolts*, Venom: The Last Dance, Kraven the Hunter, Joker: Folie a Deux, Aquaman: The Lost Kingdom, Blue Beetle, The Flash and Madame Web - some of them weren't very good, while some were just hard sells even if the movie is good.

Next year, Marvel Studios should be fine at the box office with Spider-Man and Avengers. DC with Clayface and Supergirl, should be interesting if its going to attract numbers enough for a profit.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

How are Overseas numbers looking?

It’s a lost cause in China and Korea, but we knew that going in. But based on what’s being said in the various individual country threads over on BOT’s international board, it appears to be doing ok. We’ll have to wait for the actual numbers but right now there’s no indication of a collapse.

 

[Sithborg]

Well, no offense to the author of the piece, but has he looked at the numbers lately? Superman will likely pass JW Rebirth this weekend to become the top-grossing film of the summer domestically and take the No. 3 overall spot on the 2025 domestic box office list behind Minecraft and L&S. Meanwhile, F4 is heading into the high 200s at least domestically and is looking to swipe the No. 5 overall spot from Sinners. If those are considered unsuccessful at the box office, then maybe his definition of success is a wee bit high?

(And yes I know OS is a different story, but that has to do mainly with the collapse of China and Korea as theatrical markets and the acceleration of streaming and piracy, issues that are not limited to the superhero genre.)

I mean, they aren't as successful anymore, there can me no denying it. Marvel could launch a random character to $600 million worldwide. FF is going to struggle a bit to get there.

 

[psylockolussus]

I mean, they aren't as successful anymore, there can me no denying it. Marvel could launch a random character to $600 million worldwide. FF is going to struggle a bit to get there.

Do you have anything nice to say about this film and its box office performance?

 

[psylockolussus]

$142,255,382. Already outgrossed Fantastic 4: Rise of the Silver Surfer, Hulk, The Wolverine, The Incredible Hulk and Venom: The Last Dance in North America in 5 days.

$241 million globally. Already outgrossed Ghost Rider.

 

[MagnarTheGreat]

Boxofficereport.com: “Opening weekend demo comparisons for The Fantastic Four: First Steps & Superman

The Fantastic Four
42% Under 25 / 58% Over 25
68% Male / 32% Female

Superman
28% Under 25 / 72% Over 25
65% Male / 35% Female”

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

F4:FS made $14M yesterday, and over $10M on Monday. I went again yesterday and the IMAX theater was easily 90-95% full at capacity. Only a few seats empty, including one next to me. People laughed, cheered and clapped much, much more than the fans did last Friday night (which we thought was notably interesting).

I think WOM is going well for this film.

 

[psylockolussus]

It is the movie event of the summer!

 

[psylockolussus]

Fantastic Four Box Office Predicted To See Huge Drop in 2nd Weekend - Comic Book Movies and Superhero Movie News - SuperHeroHype

Fantastic Four faces 60% second-weekend drop as new releases test its box office momentum and MCU's future prospects.

www.superherohype.com

60% 2nd weekend drop. 45 million to 52 million.

 

[Spider-Fan]

If it is 60% or lower, that's good