MCU Fantastic Four Box Office Predictions

[mace1]

It’s all about fomenting goodwill at this point. The Batman Begins/Dark Knight example is only pertinent to my statement in that First Steps is similarly repairing the damage previously done to the franchise, and changing public perceptions of the brand. And if we continue to see late summer legs kicking in as we’re witnessing now, it all makes for enduring positive WOM and fertile ground for more successful sequels to follow.

Hell, even a horrible sequel can thrive off the strength of a well-received predecessor—look no further than Thor: Love & Thunder as proof of Ragnorok’s goodwill being squandered.

Thor Love and thunder domestically is higher then ragnorok plus thor love and thunder was not playing in china like ragnorok was. If it was not for covid the worldwide box office would be higher for thor 4.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

So, did GOTG 3 squander 2's goodwill? Because, it performed rather similarly to how L&T performed to Ragnarok.

I don't think there is any Avengers bump anymore. Post Endgame, one sequel grew in box office, and that is most likely attributed to being tied heavily to Spider-man just before. I don't think these massive cast Avengers movies do a good job at giving all but a small selection of characters the spotlight.

As for word of mouth, it doesn't drop like we saw it did if it had great word of mouth. Sure, it doesn't seem horrible, but it isn't convincing people to come out to see it. As for "late summer legs" too late. The damage has been done. And I think you are going to see summer is done now. Schools back, the weekdays will plummet. It is starting to loose big chunks of screens.

I think it’s a mistake to assume the film didn’t have good WOM based on the drops. There was a TON of cinematic cannibalism with Superman and Jurassic World in the immediate orbit, and the studios were foolish to schedule them that way, especially with First Steps coming in last after people had already zapped their budgets with back-to-back heavy moviegoing (and I’m willing to bet Feige will never pull that s*** again).

The fact that FF:FS is holding well now that those other films have run their course shows they each needed breathing room to profit.

As far as Love & Thunder—it grossed more because Ragnarok was well-received. A 5th Thor film NOW wouldn’t be so lucky I think. These missteps have residual impacts.

 

[lenz]

I never said they couldn't or shouldn't .

As far as making " edgier stuff " I agree with you ,.

I would love to see an R Rated Daredevil or Punisher film made by Marvel Studios.

I don't disagree with you with that respect.

If anything, my hope is after Secret Wars , these individual films will be much more standalone and not dependent on what's happening on Disney plus shows, side characters film's etc.

I wanna see a dark and violent , R Rated Blade film, and addition to tackling Mutant discrimination and prejudice etc .

I don't think it's a binary either or thin, Ig, but if you think that it's an either or thing , I disagree with that , but to each is own.

This sounds good, but it all gets back to that culture change. I'm skeptical it happens even with new management. I expect them to hire Iger's replacement from within, which is most typical of the corporate mindset to keep the transition as "seamless as possible". I'm really not sold Disney is the company (intrinsically or culturally) that can deliver this strategy and sustain the lasting results needed to overcome the mounting cynicism and it's place as the #1 whipping boy in the culture war.

From a strategic standpoint, the smart move going forward would be to understand that the Avengers, Spider-Man (if Sony decides not to take their ball and go home), and a deeper, darker, more varied corner of Marvel on film, which has been extremely neglected by this group, is essential. These are the pillars to build around.

 

[psylockolussus]

Domestic (52.5%)
$257,908,772

International (47.5%)
$233,164,435

Worldwide
$491,073,207

Just nine million more!

 

[Stark Bauer]

I don't think so either .

5-10 year olds got into Black Panther, Avengers , Iron Man, Captain America : The First Avenger, etc, without those films pandering to them .

I got into Ghostbusters, Star Wars, Batman 1989, Superman 1 and 2 , as a child in the 4-10 year old range , and those films didn't pander to children back then either .

My point was that , If children aren't into the new films post Secret Wars, don't want to see them ,get the toys, etc, as a prior generation of children did 10 and 20 years ago, that's a problem I would be concerned with .

Seeing the maturity in this exchange was a bright light in the typically toxic internet forums. Good on yall

 

[Stark Bauer]

As a child, I preferred to watch Superman 2 more than Superman 1 because it had more fight and action scenes. .

I really got into Spider-Man, Fantastic Four, and X Men, in Junior high when I started collecting comics in the early 90s .

I'm old enough to have gotten them through mail order , and had them delivered every month since , there wasn't a comic shop around my area until the mid 1990s .

My first memories of anything Marvel, was The Hulk tv show and the Secret Wars toyline , which I had bunch of figures, but as a child, I didn't know Caps origin, Spider-Man's origin, Doc Ock's relation to Spiderman etc .

I just thought the toys looked cool

Unfortunately, though, they got a good bit of wear and tear in the 80s fighting GI Joe, Thundercats, and He Man figures , and they were gone by the time I started getting comics .
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This is a good
Topic. What was your first introduction to FF?

Personally it was the old cartoon. I remember just being enamoured by Thing even more so than Hulk- he’s just so much cuter and resembles Mayor McCheese lol

 

[Stark Bauer]

It’s all about fomenting goodwill at this point. The Batman Begins/Dark Knight example is only pertinent to my statement in that First Steps is similarly repairing the damage previously done to the franchise, and changing public perceptions of the brand. And if we continue to see late summer legs kicking in as we’re witnessing now, it all makes for enduring positive WOM and fertile ground for more successful sequels to follow.

Hell, even a horrible sequel can thrive off the strength of a well-received predecessor—look no further than Thor: Love & Thunder as proof of Ragnorok’s goodwill being squandered.

THIS. Remember yall, before The Dark Knight there was Batman Begins. I see First Steps in the same way, a good but not masterpiece film that showed the most comic accurate depiction yet. Plus it didn’t kill it at the box office either like First Steps.


I think we are in store for much greater things for FF it is a great time may be best time to be a FF fan!

 

[Stark Bauer]

So, did GOTG 3 squander 2's goodwill? Because, it performed rather similarly to how L&T performed to Ragnarok.

I don't think there is any Avengers bump anymore. Post Endgame, one sequel grew in box office, and that is most likely attributed to being tied heavily to Spider-man just before. I don't think these massive cast Avengers movies do a good job at giving all but a small selection of characters the spotlight.

As for word of mouth, it doesn't drop like we saw it did if it had great word of mouth. Sure, it doesn't seem horrible, but it isn't convincing people to come out to see it. As for "late summer legs" too late. The damage has been done. And I think you are going to see summer is done now. Schools back, the weekdays will plummet. It is starting to loose big chunks of screens.

I still believe we can see a Doomsday or Secret Wars bump. If they release the right film post those movies. X-Men would be perfect. Moon Knight, Ghost Rider, or heck Iron Man 4 would all make sense and would see a bump from Doomsday/Secret Wars..

I doubt Feige does this though, it makes too much sense and it’s fan service

 

[Elayis]

First Steps has not had good legs. A 2.2 multiplier isn't terrible, but it's also nothing to write home about, and certainly doesn't speak to any excitement from the general public.

And if people want to compare it to Batman Begins, that movie had a 4.2 multiplier. FF and BB are nowhere close to being in the same league. If you adjust for inflation, Begins also made $80m more domestically.

I'm sure there'll be a bump from Avengers for the sequel (if it's of similar quality), but I don't envision a TDK or even MoM level increase unless it has the same kind of nostalgic fanservice that D&W had.

 

[Frodo]

This is a good
Topic. What was your first introduction to FF?

Personally it was the old cartoon. I remember just being enamoured by Thing even more so than Hulk- he’s just so much cuter and resembles Mayor McCheese lol

It was actually the comics, which I got through mail order in the early 90s .

I remember following the development of the Corman film through Hero Magazine , in addition to the development of the Captain America film .



I was looking forward to seeing the F4 film, and was surprised when it was shelved.

Years later I found out the story behind the whole mess.

I also watched the 1990s Fantastic Four cartoon with Brian Austin Green as Johnny Storm .

I still remember that theme, during the days TV shows still had theme songs .



I even remember the Wizard Magazine fancastings of the first family.

 

[LoganPool]

Holy crap, a young Mark Harmon would have made an awesome Reed Richards!

 

[FrankenCastle]

Agent Gibbs Mark Harmon as Reed and Jeremy Irons as Doom, that's a showdown I'd kill to see!

 

[lenz]

Across any generation, my ideal Reed is William Holden, Ben would be Ernest Borgnine, Johnny is River Phoenix, and for Sue I go between Lisa Eilbacher or Michelle Pfeiffer.

Doom is Orson Wells. One GOAT deserves another.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

First Steps has not had good legs. A 2.2 multiplier isn't terrible, but it's also nothing to write home about, and certainly doesn't speak to any excitement from the general public.

And if people want to compare it to Batman Begins, that movie had a 4.2 multiplier. FF and BB are nowhere close to being in the same league. If you adjust for inflation, Begins also made $80m more domestically.

I'm sure there'll be a bump from Avengers for the sequel (if it's of similar quality), but I don't envision a TDK or even MoM level increase unless it has the same kind of nostalgic fanservice that D&W had.

I think you may be looking at the multiplier aspect a little too literally here, and maybe missing my original point. Just to reframe:

Hands down, Batman is DC’s most popular hero—he is their Spider-Man. So, it’s unfair to compare The Fantastic Four’s popularity in a literal sense to Batman’s. Naturally, their box office sales are going to be incomparable. However, my sole point in bringing up Batman Begins is that it’s similar to First Steps in that both had “new beginnings” vibes in their titles: both came behind horrible films that significantly damaged their franchises, both performed well, and both heralded a fresh start that paved the way for bigger successes down the line.

So, my comparison to Begins starts and ends there—I really wasn’t referring to a play-for-play box office context. Hope that makes sense.

 

[FrankenCastle]

I think you may be looking at the multiplier aspect a little too literally here, and maybe missing my original point. Just to reframe:

Hands down, Batman is DC’s most popular hero—he is their Spider-Man. So, it’s unfair to compare The Fantastic Four’s popularity in a literal sense to Batman’s. Naturally, their box office sales are going to be incomparable. However, my sole point in bringing up Batman Begins is that it’s similar to First Steps in that both had “new beginnings” vibes in their titles: both came behind horrible films that significantly damaged their franchises, both performed well, and both heralded a fresh start that paved the way for bigger successes down the line.

So, my comparison to Begins starts and ends there—I really wasn’t referring to a play-for-play box office context. Hope that makes sense.

I would've been okay for the F4 not to get involved in this saga, so we can finally introduce them as the first family in the soft-rebooted MCU. F4: First Steps feels so much like the first entry of a new cinematic universe, that's a shame they're jumping on the Avengers bandwagon that soon.

 

[Frodo]

I think you may be looking at the multiplier aspect a little too literally here, and maybe missing my original point. Just to reframe:

Hands down, Batman is DC’s most popular hero—he is their Spider-Man. So, it’s unfair to compare The Fantastic Four’s popularity in a literal sense to Batman’s. Naturally, their box office sales are going to be incomparable. However, my sole point in bringing up Batman Begins is that it’s similar to First Steps in that both had “new beginnings” vibes in their titles: both came behind horrible films that significantly damaged their franchises, both performed well, and both heralded a fresh start that paved the way for bigger successes down the line.

So, my comparison to Begins starts and ends there—I really wasn’t referring to a play-for-play box office context. Hope that makes sense.

I agree with your comparison.

The film, like James Gunn's Superman, Batman Begins, and Spiderman : Homecoming, is basically a fence mending film for the GA .

In alot of ways, it had a bigger climb than Spiderman.

This film , unlike Superman , Batman, and Spider-man ,was from a franchise which never had a Batman 89, The Dark Knight , Superman 1 and 2, Spiderman 1 and 2 , style critical, commercial , and GA popularity ,that those films had, prior to their reboots.

Those franchises at least could point to prior films which were pop culture phenomenons in the past, which were also box office sensations .

The prior Fantastic Four films , have all been received mixed to negative from critics and the GA, and I think fans , pundits ,and probably Marvel/Disney ,underestimated the stink that those prior films,left on Fantastic Four : First Steps , even with the MCU branding.

I think alot of people didn't even bother seeing the new film altogether , due to the franchises past reputation.

That said, I do think the film is probably gonna do well on streaming, just as Superman will.

I think children, who aren't apart of the conversation surronding this film in fandom, are gonna see it , and like it, and that will probably help the next film .

They aren't going to see this film in the context of box office expectations, the current state of the MCU, Marvel vs DC , etc, stuff that basically adult fandom is debating .

Either kids will like the film or they won't , but either way, they won't see it through the prisim of adult fandom, youtubers ,or guys on social media .

While , I don't think a sequel will make a billion either, I think that this film, has gone a long way in at least telling the GA, that, " this property can be done right, and in a way that appeals to you".