Webfoot Hero
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While I'm sure there'll be a few announcements at SDCC, I could easily see them saving a few big announcements for D23 in September.
Marvel Films MCU Phase IV!
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ADollarADay
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Unless things start crashing and burning there's zero chance that Marvel Studios only has 2 or 3 movies theatrically per year going forward. Reason we don't have 4 this year is due to unforeseen delays. I fully expect them to settle at 4 until 2025-2026 when they could probably flirt with 5 or 6. Dates that they seem to have set are Feb/March, May, July, November. Date that they could start using is Labor Day weekend. December is an option if Disney ever wants to give Marvel that slot OR if Sony Pictures still exists and the sharing agreement is still in place.
If it happens won't be for awhile. All these companies . Distribution rights for future Hulk movies return in a bit over a year, but there's 0 setup for WWH and they'd need some time to get there. Last we saw of Hulk he was Professor Hulk with a sling on his arm. Bruce also had a sling on his arm. They'd need time to set up 1) Hulk going back to savage mode and 2) Why Hulk is such a menace and needs to be kicked off Earth and 3) What is the event that triggers him so much that he goes on destroying everyone. At the same time they'd need to set up the other teams that would fight Hulk. In the comics Hulk told Black Bolt he didn't go there to hear him whisper, he wanted to hear him scream.
I also feel World War Hulk would need to be a two movie thing, not just one.
You are not gonna get all of that at SDCC. D23 is in September and there's Disney+ day in November. Disney may also want to do another Investor Day in December.
SDCC I guess you could expect a teaser for Wakanda Forever or more likely a reel/first look with teases for WF, AntMan, Secret Invasion etc. They'll probably confirm the Halloween Special there too with casting.
psylockolussus
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I wouldn't complain if we get 4 to 6 per year. I'm sure some people would get burnt out, it opens more movie for the other ips.
ADollarADay
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This is a problem that Marvel has now. From 2018 until the end of 2019 and before the pandemic hit Marvel had 5/6 movies go over 1B. Now that we are leaving the pandemic they have 1B+ and Dr. Strange seems like it might make 2 in a row. Thor 4 and BP 2 have good chances of making the mark. Ant Man and GoTG are the question marks next year with Marvels being likely. If their movies are hitting 1B at this rate Disney has no reason not to release 4+ of them per year.
2023 and 2024 they have 4 spots saved up. If they get them all to be profitable while 60%+ hit 1B+ then it would be weird for them not to go for 5 with the September slot in 2025.
The issue that you mention is a real one though and is exacerbated with the Disney+ series, specials, and shorts (+ the animated ones). In 2021 they had 4 Live Action series and 1 Animated. This year it seems we'll get 3 Live Action series, 1 Animated, 2 Specials, 1 shorts. DMED probably wants to keep the Marvel flow there high since their shows are extremely popular.
Marvel has 5 main lines they can use to keep things fresh and take on interesting stories and perspectives:
Avengers - including street level heroes such as the netflix ones
Mutants - including retconned ones like Maximoffs and Cloak and Dagger
Cosmic - including GoTG, inhumans, and F4
Supernatural - Moon Knight, Ghost Rider, etc some overlap with some of the other ones
Spiderverse - This is tricky as Marvel does not fully own the movie and tv rights here
It's a good problem to have though. Their Marvel Legends stuff is a good way to recap events and get people up to date. I think they can do better there, but I'll be using that to catch up on Ms Marvel as I don't think that project is for me, so I just plan to catch up on what happens there.
Kev4000
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I would. 6 pictures per year means every 2 months a new movie. So they would overlapping each other in the cinema, other movies get even more pushed back by Marvel and Kevin has even less power to overlook everything.
6x Marvel, 3 (?)x DC and 2x Sony would be too much along with Star Wars and other IPs. 4 per year is the sweet spot for me.
ADollarADay
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I do think Marvel will go for 5 (using Labor Day weekend as the 5th), unless their BO take suffers in 2023 and 2024. Disney will not give them the December spot as that will be Avatar/Star Wars. However Sony probably liked that December spot quite a bit, so for the next Spider-Man movies Sony may want that spot.
Marvel and Disney will not care about SSU and DC movies. They care about their projects so only Star Wars and MCU produced Spidey from your others list is relevant to them. Speaking of Sony I think they will try to up their theatrical output too if they keep finding Venom like success. They can't do DTV movies and the Live Action Spidey TV rights are a bit hairy and not as straight forward as everyone thinks (Mostly owned by Sony but Marvel has some important veto rights. That is THE reason why we haven't gotten anything yet). Movies with first release in theater is the only true carte blanche that Sony has with the license.
psylockolussus
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Imo, Marvel Studios should release up to 6 movies a year IF the quality is conXistent, and the audience show up and the boX office results are great.
Now the TV side, we don't know the ratings / hits of their streaming shows but I'd say, its hardly as popular as the most talked about NetfliX shows. So imo, in the TV side, they should limit it to 2 per year. Like showa for Agatha Harkness and Echo just seem eXtraneous to me and something like Secret Invasion, She-Hulk, Moon Knight, Ms. Marvel and Hawkeye would have been better off as movies as they would attract a bigger audience.
Now the TV side, we don't know the ratings / hits of their streaming shows but I'd say, its hardly as popular as the most talked about NetfliX shows. So imo, in the TV side, they should limit it to 2 per year. Like showa for Agatha Harkness and Echo just seem eXtraneous to me and something like Secret Invasion, She-Hulk, Moon Knight, Ms. Marvel and Hawkeye would have been better off as movies as they would attract a bigger audience.
psylockolussus
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The Sony Verse won't have longevity. Its not going to last very long, even if it did, it won't have the same number of output as Marvel Studios.
how many Venom movies could Sony release before the audience gets fatigued? Movies like Madame Web, Kraven aren't going to attract the same audience size as Venom. So the only things left are Sinister SiX, Venom vs someone and force Spider-Man to appear in the non mcu films. Their library of characters is simply limited.
For me, the only ones I think should get a movie are (that haven't gotten a mcu movie)
Fantastic Four
Blade
X-Men
Ghost Rider
Silver Surfer
I'd like to see Inhumans get a second chance but with Eternals around, the possibility is slim for their own movie. Squirrel Girl, Nova, Sentry, Cloak & Dagger - maybe but I wouldn't be surprised if Disney just put them on Disney+ for their solo adventures. Thunderbolts, Young Avengers, Runaways - I don't want to see. Namor is tied with Universal so like Hulk, we won't get a solo film. I am not really a fan of legacy characters getting their own film but I can see Disney doing more after Captain America 4. Maybe a movie for Yelena, Jane Thor, Ms. Marvel, Ironheart and Kate Bishop. The NetfliX heroes... if Daredevil is still not getting a 2nd movie, the chances are smaller for Jessica, Luke, the Punisher, Elektra and Iron Fist.
Then New Mutants, X-Force and X-Factor as movie spin offs for the X-Men. I don't want any mutants getting their solo film.
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ADollarADay
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Not gonna happen. I disagree on your assessment what would be better as movies, but that's subjective. On the cadence releases of shows though:
2021 saw 4 Live Action + 1 Animated
2022 we are seeing 3 or 4 Live Action, possibly 1 Animated, 2 Specials, and 1 short
2023 we know there will be at least 3 live action plus whatever else.
Even if they are not as popular as the biggest Netflix shows they are pretty much all Disney has for Disney+. That and Star Wars. The content dump is not stopping, but rather accelerating. Chapek mentioned that COVID did affect the cadence of releases and they expect to get in a better flow in the 2nd half of this year or next year.
My prediction is - unless numbers crater - by 2025/26 we see 5 movies per year from Marvel Studios (6 depending) and 5-6+ series plus whatever specials or whatever they wanna do. Not counting animation here. As long as the quality is there and the profit margins are there they'll keep pumping out content. Strike while the iron is hot as they say.
Just like above that will depend on numbers. I never thought clown Venom and building sized Carnage would have done 500MM+ at the BO.
If Kraven, Madame Webb, El Muerto, Venom 3 do Morbius numbers then Sony will reassess. If they do Venom 1 or even Venom 2 numbers then they'll release 2+ or even 3+ projects per year. Same thing with their animated efforts (i.e. Across the Spiderverse and Beyond the Spiderverse). Again strike while the iron is hot because you don't know how long it'll last. Rothman will also ensure the budget stays as low as possible to minimize risks. Don't expect budgets above 100MM for these projects and most will be the 75MM because that's the lowest it has to be.
Remember SPE does not have many franchises and they are rather limited in what they have. How many Jumanjis before ROIC starts dropping? Bad Boys now has Will Smith stench. SPE is also the lowest ROIC division in Sony (~6-7% ROIC on the year NWH came out) and their most popular film franchise is Spider-Man. They'll try to mine and maximize the property as much as possible even if it hurts the franchise overall.
InCali
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If I'm Marvel, I go 4 movies per year max; part of the reason is that I think the timing is right and part of it is that there are only so many good release dates. I think what they're doing with D+ is to pull in some characters and fill in some cracks that can be used in future movies. It also helps their streaming platform. Falcon and WS is a notable exception. The "strike when the iron is hot" approach is clearly not a bad idea, but if you want to keep the iron hot, be judicious in your releases and how they are planned. If you can "really" do 5 or 6, fine, but I can see some possible downsides to that long term. Marvel has done a nice job of telling an interconnected story and bringing disparate stories together. Careful planning and patience will serve you well long term. Marvel doesn't need to throw S*** against the wall and see what sticks because they have so many interesting characters and stories to tell. Sony is in a different position and, therefore, would probably be more likely to take some chances.....because they kind of have to. Unless there is some sort of restriction in their SM agreement with Marvel, why they don't go with a Jessica Drew instead of Morbius, Kraven, and Madame Web, continues to baffle me.
ADollarADay
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The other two good release dates for Marvel while keeping the ones they have are Labor Day (Shang Chi did really well here) and XMas (Doubt Sony would want to give up this release date for Spidey films after NWH). If the 2022/23/24 movies mostly hit a billion with 30%+ profit margins I see Marvel and Disney moving to 5 movies per year in 25 or 26. I'm old enough to remember when Marvel hit 2 movies per year some people were saying that's too much. There's a limit, of course, but they'll keep pushing while the returns are there.
There's a fine line on the bolded and it's a balancing act. Disney execs are under intense pressure to produce results as dividends and stock buybacks are paused for close to 3 years. Stock has cratered. You are not necessarily wrong and I don't really disagree in what you are saying, but things are not that black and white. They never really are.
Pretty sure while the deal with Marvel Studios is good and valid there are some restrictions in what movies Sony can do in live action for their Spider characters.
InCali
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I think I get what you're saying. You have to make a decision and if you're off on your projections 3 or so years down the road, that's not a good thing. I guess the way I look at it is that you have a road map, but you have to make constant road corrections based on what Google Maps is telling you; and even then, you could run into problems (although I'd LOVE to have Disney's "problems" LOL). Those are good problems to have and Sony is much more limited in their options for a lot of reasons (desirable characters, money, film making organizations, etc.).
psylockolussus
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Remember when Transformers used to be huge?
Now how Venom 4, 5, 6 are going to perform at the boX office without forcing Spider-Man in it? Into the Verse movies are separated as of now, but could you imagine that performing really well after 4 to 6 movies? The gimmick isn't going to be as interesting as the first/second time.
The appeal for Venom isn't just that big. He's no Batman and Spider-Man, especially the quality of the first two movies. Kraven, Madame Web and El Muerto would probably not just help this universe if they are as bad as the previous Sonyverse movies.
Sony only has Venom 3, Sinister siX and a potential crossover with Spider-Man. Those won't be enough if they want to keep this going for 15 years. By Venom 4, I don't know how they could make it interesting without a Spider-Man crossover.
While movies for Silver sable, Black Cat, Spider-Woman, Silk would be interesting- Sony can't seem to keep the ball rolling for those and we get El Muerte and Madame Web instead....
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ADollarADay
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Transformer is a good comparison. Feige is a one of a kind executive in that he's a nerd first, exec second. Most execs look at numbers and ROI. I expect SSU to possibly follow Transformer's and/or Marvel TV efforts and path unless things change.
On a side note, why do you capitalize every single "x"?
InCali
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It's an X-Men thing......note the name. He makes up words to put an X in also.
psylockolussus
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Its my Xignature.It's an X-Men thing......note the name. He makes up words to put an X in also.
ADollarADay
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Annnnnnd just like that Sony has proven what I was saying in their last financial Quarter.
2/13 Spider movies. Okay.
6/9 highlighted movies are Spider movies. 5 Spider movies planned in 2023. 7 Spider movies planned in a 12 month period (04/01/2022 - 03/31/2023)
I think Sony may be going a bit overboard with these Spider related movies. Or maybe they are telling Disney they are throwing everything at the wall, either pay us to stop it or deal with it.
2/13 Spider movies. Okay.
6/9 highlighted movies are Spider movies. 5 Spider movies planned in 2023. 7 Spider movies planned in a 12 month period (04/01/2022 - 03/31/2023)
I think Sony may be going a bit overboard with these Spider related movies. Or maybe they are telling Disney they are throwing everything at the wall, either pay us to stop it or deal with it.
psylockolussus
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I just don't see in what universe films like Madame Web, El Muerte would really be huge success and spawn to sequels.
As of now they have
- Venom 3 (I guess Venom 4 as well)
- 2 Spider-Verse movies
- Sinister siX and this would depend if they could pull it off assuming Tom Holland appears in it
- Venom: Let There Be Peter
Sony's Marvel library isn't that diverse to carry as many franchises as Marvel Studios and DC.
I'd like to see a solo film for Black Cat, Spider-Woman and Silver Sable but what are the odds those aren't sn't going to be as good as the Venom films and Morbius? In the long run, it would affect how people would view Non Mcu marvel films. They are simply not going to care about. A Mcu movie with the boX office numbers of Morbius would have been so disastrous.
As of now they have
- Venom 3 (I guess Venom 4 as well)
- 2 Spider-Verse movies
- Sinister siX and this would depend if they could pull it off assuming Tom Holland appears in it
- Venom: Let There Be Peter
Sony's Marvel library isn't that diverse to carry as many franchises as Marvel Studios and DC.
I'd like to see a solo film for Black Cat, Spider-Woman and Silver Sable but what are the odds those aren't sn't going to be as good as the Venom films and Morbius? In the long run, it would affect how people would view Non Mcu marvel films. They are simply not going to care about. A Mcu movie with the boX office numbers of Morbius would have been so disastrous.
InCali
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Do you have a source for that info which you can share? Not doubting you, just curious
ADollarADay
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A lot of the info is publicly available. Paramount and Universal agreements are almost 100% available at the SEC site. I confirmed it with someone I know that works data, legal, and other services for Disney Corporate and that person said "it's coming back to us soon". I won't say anymore than that. This does not mean they'll do a solo Hulk movie and it does not mean they get distribution rights to previous released products.
psylockolussus
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My ranking so far
Movie
1. Spider-Man No Way Home
2. Black Widow
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. Eternals
Series
1. WandaVision
2. Loki
3. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
4. Hawkeye
5. Moon Knight
Movie
1. Spider-Man No Way Home
2. Black Widow
3. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
4. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
5. Eternals
Series
1. WandaVision
2. Loki
3. The Falcon and the Winter Soldier
4. Hawkeye
5. Moon Knight
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I dont care as much about say TIH coming to D+ as I do a new Hulk movie. I do hope Ruffalo gets at least 1 solo movie before he is done in the MCU
sdgrandia86
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- Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness
- Eternals
- Shang Chi
- Black Widow
- Spider Man No Way Home
- Wandavision
- Hawkeye
- The Falcon and The Winter Soldier
- Loki
- Moonknight
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