Pirates 3, Spider-Man 3, Shrek The Third - What film will gross the most?

[Darth Elektra]

I liked FF2

Terrible film.

Glad to see Transformers hit the 150 mark!

 

[Erzengel]

Agreed. Monday's gross will be a indicator of how well this film is going to do.

 

[Mr. Socko]

Wow, Shrek 3 isn't even close to Shrek 2's BO numbers.

 

[Erzengel]

Actually all the May Movies aren't anywhere near where it's predecessors did except for Spider-Man kinda.

1 Shrek 2 $441
2 Shrek the Third $317
3 Shrek $268

Difference between 2 and 3, $124 million

1 Spider-Man $404
2 Spider-Man 2 $374
3 Spider-Man 3 $334

Difference between 2 and 3, $40 million

1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest $423
2 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl $305
3 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End $302

Difference between 2 and 3, $121 million

 

[Darth Elektra]

"Transformers" tops box office, topples record

"Transformers," the big-budget movie about alien robots battling on Earth, raked in $67.6 million at box offices over the weekend to land at No. 1 and bring its seven-day total to a record $152.6 million, according to studio estimates on Sunday.

Computer-animated "Ratatouille," about a cuisine-loving rat who longs to be a chef in Paris, fell one notch from last week to come in No. 2 with $29 million, boosting its 10-day total to $109.1 million, and action adventure "Live Free or Die Hard," starring Bruce Willis, was No. 3 with $17.4 million.

"Transformers" is based on the 1980s toys that shift shape from cars and planes to become alien Autobots and Decepticons warring against each other here on Earth.

The toys have built a loyal fan base of mostly boys and young men, and they turned out in droves for the movie. But curiously, the film's co-producers at Paramount Pictures and Dreamworks said the second-biggest group of supporters was mothers, who recommended the movie almost unanimously.

"We knew we had hard-core fans who wanted to come, (but) literally every one of the (major audience) groups turned out," said Rob Moore, president of worldwide marketing and distribution at Paramount.

Moms, in particular, "see the movie and see the spirit with which it is done -- the fun of it," Moore added.

"Transformers" debuted in a limited number of theaters on Monday and began a widespread release on Tuesday in the United States and Canada ahead of the U.S. Independence Day Holiday.

TRANSFORMING THE CHARTS

Throughout the week, Paramount trumpeted the film's ability to topple records. The opening-day haul of $27.5 million was the highest Tuesday ever, and $29.1 million on Wednesday was the most cash for an Independence Day.

Paramount said the estimated $152.6 million marked a best for the initial seven days of release for any movie that was not a sequel. It beat 2002's original "Spider-Man," which scored an opening seven-day haul of more than $151 million.

"Ratatouille" also performed well over the holiday since last weekend's initial, three-day haul of $47 million fell short of some box office watchers' expectations.

At $109 million, the movie is now about $8 million shy of where last summer's Disney-Pixar film, "Cars," was at the same point, and is quickly closing in on "Cars" pace, said Chuck Viane, who heads domestic distribution at the Disney studio.

Willis' explosion-filled "Live Free or Die Hard" boosted its 10-day total to $84.1 million for Twentieth Century Fox.

Besides "Transformers," the only other new movie to open wide this week was Warner Bros. comedy "License to Wed," starring Robin Williams. It proved to be a mild performer with $10.4 million in its first weekend to land at No. 4 on charts. It has taken in $17.8 million since its Tuesday debut.

Rounding out the top five was Universal Pictures' religious comedy "Evan Almighty" with $8.1 million for the weekend and an overall total of $78.1 million.

 

[Erzengel]

Transformers seems to have done really well based on the estimates, it's around $153 million.

SM3 at the same time $176, Shrek 3 at $144 million, AWE at $167 million.

It'll be interesting to see if TF can keep up with the May movies or even surpass some of them.

Actuals are in. TF for 6 days is $155 million.

 

[Erzengel]

$9,950,000 for Monday for Transformers.

A very good indicator that word of mouth is still pretty good.

The next indicator will be this weekend. It looks right now that TF will hit $200 million after Friday.

 

[The Caped Knight]

$9,950,000 for Monday for Transformers.

A very good indicator that word of mouth is still pretty good.

The next indicator will be this weekend. It looks right now that TF will hit $200 million after Friday.

the movie is THE BEST SUMMER BLOCKBUSTER MOVIE Of O7 .

I have no doubt it will make $200 really fast .

 

[Darth Elektra]

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix will be #1 this weekend and though the last four installments of the franchise made over $85 million their opening weekends, this is the first movie in the series based on J. K. Rowling's novels that opens on a Wednesday. It's likely that the many diehard fans will be racing out to see it as soon as possible, which could keep the weekend from crossing the $80 million mark although the $50 to 60 million it makes in its first two days should more than make up for it.

After a couple delays, After Dark Films releases the horror-thriller Captivity, starring Elisha Cuthbert, and while the best thing going for it is the controversial poster campaign and the Friday 13th release date, it's still likely to wind up outside the Top 5, which will be filled up with the popular summer blockbusters like Transformers and Ratatouille.

Last year, Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest stayed on top of the charts with $62.5 million (a 54% drop from its record-setting opening weekend), while two comedies--the Wayans' Little Man and the third wheel romcom You, Me and Dupree--vied for second place, each making just over $21 million. (The Wayans won that battle by less than $100,000.) The Top 10 at the box office grossed roughly $148 million, which is likely to be topped thanks to the return of Harry Potter.

This Week's Predictions -

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) - $79.5 million N/A

2. Transformers (DreamWorks/Paramount) - $36.8 million -48%

3. Ratatouille (Disney/Pixar) - $17.8 million -39%

4. Live Free or Die Hard (20th Century Fox) - $9.3 million -47%

5. License to Wed (Warner Bros.) - $5.6 million -45%

6. Captivity (After Dark Films) - $4.9 million N/A

7. Evan Almighty (Universal) - $4.7 million -46%

8. 1408 (Dimension) - $4.1 million -42%

9. Knocked Up (Universal) - $3.3 million -33%

10. SiCKO (The Weinstein Company/Lionsgate) - $2.4 million -32%

 

[Erzengel]

Domestically at least with the last 3 Harry Potter movies, they aren't real contenders ranging from $250 - $290. It's worldwide where they are more popular. I think this will be #5 domestically.

 

[Downhere]

Nice to see Transformers doing well, pretty cool movie. This weekend will be interesting with Potter opening up tomorrow.

 

[Galactus]

An estimated $12.0 m in midnight grosses last night for Harry Potter & and the Order of the Phoenix.

That's one of the biggest "midnights" figures we've seen to date, and should put the film's opening day gross well above the
$37.0 million I was thinking in making my predictions this weekend. It also likely means that Spider-Man 2's Wednesday opening day record of $40.4 million is toast.


Here are some of the more notable "midnights" we've seen before:

Key: Film (Day of Week), Midnights, Opening Day including midnights, (M/OD)

Pirates of the Caribbean 3 (Fri) - $17.0 m, $56.2 m, (30%)
Revenge of the Sith (Thr) - $16.5 m, $50.0 m, (33%)

Harry Potter 5 (Wed) - $12.0 m

Spider-Man 3 (Fri) - $10.0 m, $59.8 m, (17%)
The Matrix Reloaded (Thr) - $9.5 m, $42.5 m, (22%)
Pirates of the Caribbean 2 (Fri) - $9.0 m, $55.8 m, (16%)
Transformers (Tue) - $8.8 m, $36.7 m, (24%)
Return of the King (Wed) - $8.0 m, $34.5 m, (23%)
The Phantom Menace (Wed) - $7.0 m, $28.5 m, (25%)
Attack of the Clones (Thr) - $6.0 m, $30.1 m, (20%)
Harry Potter 4 (Fri) - $6.0 m, $40.1 m, (15%)
X-Men 3 (Fri) - $5.9 m, $45.1 m, (13%)
Spider-Man 2 (Wed) - $5.0 m, $40.5 m, (12%)

 

[Erzengel]

Actually I think AWE is inaccurate in regards to midnight showings.

AWE opened at 8:00 pm on a Thursday grossing $13 million and from boxofficemojo, "Buena Vista estimated At World's End's midnight showings at $3 million (included in the $43 million), but initial demand was burnt off from Thursday night. "

If you want to be technical about midnight showings.

 

[Galactus]

Warner's "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" earned an estimated $44.755 million on Wednesday making it the biggest Wednesday single-day gross in box-office history (this figure appropriately includes $12 million from midnight showings that started within Wednesday). This bested the incredible performance of Sony's "Spider-Man 2" which held the record since 2004 with its $40.442 million take on Wednesday, June 30 of that year.

 

[Speedball]

Warner's "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" earned an estimated $44.755 million on Wednesday making it the biggest Wednesday single-day gross in box-office history (this figure appropriately includes $12 million from midnight showings that started within Wednesday). This bested the incredible performance of Sony's "Spider-Man 2" which held the record since 2004 with its $40.442 million take on Wednesday, June 30 of that year.

Is this higher than Transformers from last week?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Great for Potter but I think that it's hugely frontloaded and won't make anywhere near 370mil...I could be wrong though.

 

[Erzengel]

Is this higher than Transformers from last week?

Yes. TF made $8.8 in it's Monday previews and $27.85 on opening day on Tuesday. Even if you add these 2 days it's less.

 

[Erzengel]

Great for Potter but I think that it's hugely frontloaded and won't make anywhere near 370mil...I could be wrong though.

That'd be a stretch since the last 3 Potter movies only ranged from $250 to $290.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Warner's "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" earned an estimated $44.755 million on Wednesday making it the biggest Wednesday single-day gross in box-office history (this figure appropriately includes $12 million from midnight showings that started within Wednesday). This bested the incredible performance of Sony's "Spider-Man 2" which held the record since 2004 with its $40.442 million take on Wednesday, June 30 of that year.

Nice!

 

[Darth Elektra]

`Potter' Casts Record Box-Office Spell

The boy wizard still has a magic touch at the box office.

"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" took in $44.8 million in its first day, the best single-day gross ever for a movie on a Wednesday.

That included $12 million from screenings that started at midnight Tuesday.

The sequel from Time Warner Inc. unit Warner Bros. topped the previous Wednesday record of $40.4 million for 2004's "Spider-Man 2," according to box-office tracker Media By Numbers.

"In terms of box office, the law of diminishing returns does not apply to `Harry Potter.' It seems to be getting better with age," said Paul Dergarabedian, Media By Numbers president, who noted that the July 21 publication of the seventh and final "Harry Potter" novel likely helped drive interest in the latest film.

"It has the effect of creating even more excitement for both properties," Dergarabedian said. "It's a synergistic match made in heaven to have the book and movie come out within a couple weeks of each other."

"Order of the Phoenix," the fifth installment of the movie franchise based on J.K. Rowling's fantasy best-sellers, has teen wizard Harry (Daniel Radcliffe) teaching classmates magic spells to defend themselves against the coming battle with the forces of dark Lord Voldemort.

The cast includes Emma Watson and Rupert Grint as Harry's closest school chums, plus Ralph Fiennes, Michael Gambon, Maggie Smith, Gary Oldman, Helena Bonham Carter, Emma Thompson and Imelda Staunton.

 

[Galactus]

Great for Potter but I think that it's hugely frontloaded and won't make anywhere near 370mil...I could be wrong though.

Considering all the big sequels this summer have been extremely frontloaded I can't see why Harry Potter would be any different.

 

[Downhere]

HP5 will probably fall in the same range the other's have fallen into. 250-300 million. Internationally it should do extremely well like the other films have...either way, it's more of the same cash wise. But I am glad to see it doing well, can't wait to see it.

 

[Kangellove13]

i think spider man

 

[Darth Elektra]

"Phoenix" casts box-office spell over weekend

Warner Bros. Pictures' "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" worked its magic at the box office Wednesday.

The fifth feature in the franchise, which bowed in 4,181 theaters, took in an estimated $44.23 million at the North American box office for the day, including $12 million from midnight screenings. That earned the movie the title of biggest Wednesday opening ever, trumping the previous record-holder, Sony Pictures' "Spider-Man 2," which bowed to a single-day gross of $40.4 million in 2004.

The "Phoenix" opening also bested the $40.1 million first-day gross of 2005's "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire," the previous best first-day gross for any of the Potter movies, though in that case opening day was a Friday. "Phoenix" also notched the biggest IMAX opening ever, pulling in $1.9

On the international front, the movie's Wednesday bow grossed another $29.2 million from 29 countries.

There will be no cliffhanger this coming weekend. "Phoenix," which will be installed in 4,285 theaters -- Warners' widest opening ever -- is destined to dominate the frame, and no other wide release except for the R-rated "Captivity," playing in a far more limited 1,050 locations, aims to stake out a fresh position in the marketplace.

The only question surrounding "Phoenix," as it was with last weekend's chart-topper, "Transformers," is how big it will be.

GATHERING FORCES

With its PG-13 rating, "Phoenix," directed by David Yates and adapted for the screen by Michael Goldenberg, reflects author J.K. Rowling's book series in that its atmosphere is darker and the gathering forces of the evil Lord Voldemort (a proboscis-free Ralph Fiennes) are growing ever more threatening. So this time out, Harry might not attract some of the youngest moviegoers. On the other hand, a generation of fans have grown up along with principal actors Daniel Radcliffe, Rupert Grint and Emma Watson and can be counted on to continue to support the franchise.

Most of the Potter movies have opened on a Friday in November; their opening weekends have ranged from $88.3 million for "Chamber of Secrets" in 2002 to $102.6 million for "Goblet of Fire" in 2005. "Prisoner of Azkaban" in 2004 is the only previous title to launch in the summer -- it bowed to $93.7 million in June 2004, and with a final domestic gross of $249.5 million, it was the lowest-grossing film in the series in North America.

The three-day weekend number for "Phoenix" won't equal those levels because its Wednesday opening will have siphoned off some of the most rabid fans who had to see the film right away. But the film could well head into the weekend with $60 million or more and see a three-day gross that could range from $70 million-$90 million.

Warners is trying to steer expectations conservatively, but a five-day gross above $125 million appears a fait accompli, and a number in the $140 million range appears realistic. At the moment, the top five-day gross for a movie that opened on a Wednesday is "Spider-Man 2," with $152.4 million. (As it happened, that movie's fifth day of release, a Sunday, also happened to fall on the Fourth of July holiday). "Phoenix" might not hit that mark, but it surely will be looking to conjure up something close.

RETURNING CHAMPS

Meanwhile, "Transformers" will necessarily segue into the second spot overall at the weekend box office. Having taken in $70.5 million the previous weekend, the film, if it falls about 50 percent, could capture another $35 million or so as it climbs above the $200 million mark.

Buena Vista Pictures' animated "Ratatouille," which has been holding strong, will lose some of its younger audience to "Phoenix." The Disney/Pixar film collected $29 million the previous weekend, and so this frame it probably will check in around the high-teen millions range.

Amid the box-office competition, After Dark Films' "Captivity" isn't likely to have a major impact. The thriller, from director Roland Joffe, stars Elisha Cuthbert and Daniel Gillies as a couple who are kidnapped and tortured. The film earned a certain notoriety in March, when it was disciplined for posting gruesome billboards that hadn't been approved by the MPAA. As a result, the organization reprimanded After Dark by suspending the ratings process on the film by a month, which resulted in "Captivity" backing off its originally targeted May 18 release date.

Although After Dark first planned to release the film through Lionsgate Films, it is now going out through Freestyle Releasing. But hard-R horror films have not met with audience favor of late: "Hostel: Part II" opened to $8.2 million in 2,350 theaters in June, and "Captivity," on fewer than half as many screens, probably will debut somewhere below the $5 million mark.

On the limited front, Focus Features will introduce the R-rated "Talk To Me," a 1970s-set drama from director Kasi Lemmons in which Don Cheadle plays Washington radio personality Ralph "Petey" Greene. Sony Pictures Classics will launch the R-rated "Interview," starring and directed by Steve Buscemi. IFC Films will shepherd two films, Gerardo Naranjo's "Drama/Mex" and Patrice Leconte's "My Best Friend."

MGM's "Rescue Dawn," which bowed the previous weekend in six theaters, will move into 38 theaters in North America. Lionsgate's release of the Weinstein Co.'s "Sicko" will move into 756 theaters. Fox Searchlight's "Joshua" and Warner Independent Pictures' "Introducing the Dwights" also will increase their footprints.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

According to showbizdata it dived to 18.4mil on thursday...thats about 5mil lower than SM2's thursday and it made 4 million more on wednesday. www.showbizdata.com

I'm curious to see what the final numbers will be when boxofficemojo gets them in.