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Discussion in 'Misc. Films' started by CConn, Nov 17, 2012.
So yeah, what 10 films of this year do you think will end up being nominated for BP?
The Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
Moonrise Kingdom or Anna Karenina or Beasts of the Southern Wild
Yeah that sounds about right.
I feel like there's not quite enough diversity in that list. Generally, the Academy seems to give a couple of token noms to kids movies or movies that people actually, know, like.
I guess Moonrise Kingdom could count as the latter, but I dunno, I wouldn't be surprised to see Looper or something like that thrown in there.
The Hobbit and maybe that Zero Dark Thirty movie too.
While Looper was good it didn't seem academy award winning good.
I think 'Perks of Being a Wallflower' has a chance. It's one of the best made films of the year and has great performances as well. Yeah, it's a coming-of-age story but it somehow has a lot more gravitas than that.
Here are the 10 films I hope make the list, simply because I loved them or I expect to really like them when they come out. I'm pretty sure at least a few of these WON'T make the list, but ya never know.
Safety Not Guaranteed
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Were half of the movies nominated last year really Best Picture worthy, though?
It's basically an ACTION MOVIE... when has the academy ever gone that route? Maybe they did years and years and years ago. But, it just seems like something out of the blue. The only action movie with a chance is TDKR and that would be a nod towards the Nolan Batman franchise as a whole. Academy always targets dramas for the most part or if it does target other genres it HAS TO be some kind of landmark.
My list (although far-fetched sadly):
Perks of Being a Wallflower
The Dark Knight Rises
Predicting additions to said list:
I don't think Extremely Unworthy and Incredibly Pretentious deserved a nomination
Like I said, there has to be at least one or two token nods, though. Maybe TDKR could be it, I dunno. But it certainly won't be ALL dramatic films. That's my basic point.
The Hobbit may have a chance. I'd love Rises to be nominated but I doubt it will be.
That nod would likely go to The Avengers (top box office AND beloved by critics) bringing together all the MARVEL films into one universe - not exactly an easy thing to do. AND/or The Dark Knight Rises being a final bow/nod to Nolan's Batman films (also beloved by critics). Both would be more nods to what the filmmakers have been able to accomplish as a whole AND - why there's non-dramatic films - bring in the general mass audience factor to up the ratings.
If any action blockbuster is nominated, it has to be either TDKR or Skyfall. The Avengers didn't have nearly enough of the aspects the the Academy looks for to be nominated.
What about Skyfall? Not out till the 22nd here but I've heard some Oscar buzz.
The Avengers was LOVED by critics at 92% (higher than other potential nominees), it was the highest grossing film of the year at box office, it represents a completion of a 6 film arc (the FIRST time such a thing has even been achieved - the academy has always loved innovators), AND it being the top film of the year with the masses would lead into the ratings increasing (which is why the Academy started to branch off in the first place - it started losing interest to the masses).
Yeah, all that doesn't matter. It won't happen.
Like I said, Skyfall has a chance for a pity nom, that's about it.
You still have yet to say one reason. I have named all the possible reasons and all of them stand on solid ground. You're forgetting the main one - RATINGS... unless you actually think the academy started to branch off for a reason OTHER than ratings? They want people to watch. It wouldn't be knocked because it actually got one of the higher critic approvals over other possible nominees PLUS top grossing film of the year = audience interest = ratings they want = $$$. Never dismiss the bottom line. If it was a 'bad' movie or a 'cult' movie - alrighty - but, it wasn't - it was one of the top movies of the year by critics choice and audience choice via box office. And as said.... MONEY talks.
Because I really don't feel as though this is the place to get into a debate on the quality of TA as a film, which is what it would undoubtably progress into.
Rotten tomatoes' ratings have never corresponded to awards love. The last installment of Harry Potter had a similar consensus as Avengers, somewhere in the 90 percent range as well as massive BO success and that didn't get a nomination. Hell Piranha 3D and Machete had better RT ratings than The Reader and Extremely Loud. Doesn't mean a thing.
Look at this year's nominations. Only one of the nine films nominated grossed 100 million dollars. They're not doing very well if they're supposedly going after popular films.
It's not about that, hey ccon if you didn't personally like it... I don't care one way or another. What I'm looking at are other things:
> Critics choice, they wouldn't be seen as "selling out" because of that
> Innovative, they wouldn't be seen as "selling out" because of that
*** > RATINGS = Money. The academy is branching out TO MAKE MASSES WATCH.
I'm coming at this from a purely business stand-point and point of view. If you want those ratings you would go after that one film that would draw them in. And seeing as to how Avengers is the #1 film AND how nominating it wouldn't be seen as "selling out" since the critic and audience consensus was positive - you'd have an easy way of bringing in those dollars.
Now since I might sound like a hypocrite:
Yes, LOOPER was a good film and it had a higher RT rating - it also has that it was rather obscure in the audience mind and an action film going against it without anything other than story that was innovative.
SKYFALL - 50th Bond anniversary
THE DARK KNIGHT RISES - finale of Nolan's trilogy
THE AVENGERS - the first time 6 films have ever been brought into one and successfully at that
All of the above three would draw in the masses, they wouldn't seem to be selling out due to overall critics consensus, and in the end they'll be checking their pockets.
I'm really seeing this more as a 2011 kind of year (or 83rd) rather than 84th... Reason being in the 84th were there ANY that stood out other to fanboys?
That year you had INCEPTION and TOY STORY 3 (possibly the final Toy Story film, or otherwise a 'bow/acknowledgement')
Only movie that I see as a possibility (that would be a bow) is HARRY POTTER.
He's not talking about his own opinion, which obviously wouldn't change a thing. He's talking about the perception of quality by the Academy, which isn't the same as the critics. Regardless of whether not you think it's a good idea, and you can argue whether the Academy is dumb for it, but they prize their reputation much more than they do their ratings. If they really wanted to nominate something the general public liked, they would've already done it with The Dark Knight. But there's a stigma with sci-fi, superhero, comic book films you name it. The Avengers is too silly, too kiddy in their eyes. I'm not saying it's true, but that's the academy.
Sure, they nominated District 9 and Avatar, but those were arguably more adult and contained political messages. Inception was something from Nolan that they could nominate that didn't have a guy in a bat costume in it.
The way I think you have to look at the academy is this...
The academy are elitist, pretentious snobs. They have a very set defined concept of what a movie should look like, play out as, be in general. It has to be epic, it has to have political ramifications, it has to have powerful emotional dramas, etc.
They are, essentially, prejudice. And while the Avengers is a great movie, it really doesn't have any of those things that the academy looks for in a film. It's light, it's bright, it's fun. It's pretty much the antithesis of what a "Best Picture".
That's why I don't think it'll be nominated. With TDKR, and Skyfall, and Looper they all at least have aspects that could appeal to the academy. They're the street rats dressed up in tuxedos. They'll never have a chance to win, but they're at least disguised enough to possibly fit in for a little while.