I wasn't using those films do to their size. I was using them simply because they basically had sequels green-lit right out the door, and one got shelved a year later and the other is still being talked about two years later, but still hasn't been made.
Also not sure it is fair to say The Golden Compass destroyed New Line. They were begging those films to be their next LOTR, to save the company. Their attempts to manipulate the creative in that direction didn't help, along with the subject matter itself.
Well, yeah. New Line put all their hopes on solving their financial woes on TGC being another LOTR (and made sure to literally spell out the connection of producing both in the trailers) and then when that went bust for being a terrible movie and nothing working beyond a handful of performances....that was that.
Even if Prometheus crosses $300 million at the box office, I don't think it will make profit on its theatrical run. The movie had a good sized marketing campaign.
The rest I agree with.
Prometheus cost $130 million. We can estimate that the marketing was
at most $50-$60 million (though it could have been quite a bit less), that would bring Fox's total investment in the film to $180-$190 million. Now if Prometheus can cross $300 million WW (I think it will cross $315 million in total), that's a nice chunk of change for an R-rated film. Studios generally keep around 70 to 75% of the box office hauls from exhibitors. But even if we low ball it given how confusing foreign markets are to an average of only 2/3, that still means Fox gets over $200 million of Prometheus's WW take. That sets the floor for this thing to at least $10 million netted in profit.
Granted, that's not a lot. But it will definitely recoup its costs theatrically and I think Fox will make a little bit more than that off of its theatrical run. While not a lot, in this market starved for new tentpoles, and for Fox who doesn't have a franchise right now without an X or Ape in the title, that isn't the end of the world. In fact, if it sells very well on DVD/Blu-Ray--and if you drop a "Ridley Scott Director's Cut" to a genre movie, fanboys are going to eat it up--I think there is still a strong likelihood of a sequel.
My only suggestion would be to get a new writer, Lindelof can work on the basic story, but not the final screenplay, keep the budget the same as the first film and release it in winter with a new title ("Paradise"). Make it a Christmas release and market it as a different type of sci-fi film from the first one (i.e. not a horror movie). I think they could very reasonably see a profit in at least one sequel. I don't think it has the longevity of the "Alien" franchise, but there is room for at least one sequel to wrap things up. If audiences respond positively to the new tone and approach, Fox can run the brand into the ground after Scott leaves just like before.